This is just the beginningCommodity prices are still going, several commodities have gone past all time highs, such as Palladium, Lumber, Steel...
And grains are also going up very strongly, Corn hit an 8 year high after 6 years of price stability, and they're all not far from ATH.
Corn imports have fallen as buyers are put off by the high prices (they are going against the trend, what if it never goes back down?).
Soybean demand should continue to increase, it is in high demand for the green transition (as a meat replacement, fuel additive or replacement, lubricant, etc).
And based on past years it seems farmers do not sell before summer (they plant in April-May).
This is now the 12th month in a row food prices have been going up.
History will show this was more than just some short term fluctuation or some economic recovery.
If we look at the past 10 years we might expect that soybean volatility is set to soar, every year as farmers plant their crops volatility increases by about 50%.
It fits with what you would expect after a range breakout, a trend that gets stronger and stronger ending parabolic (and bears screaming "this is ridiculous"), followed by a significant correction.
Corn has been the big runner and I think I will avoid it now, but wheat is interesting, after a long period of being choppy and lagging behind other grains, it has gone vertical finally!
If this keeps going I will look to go long wheat on a pullback.
Resistance (ATH) is far away:
The price stopped at the $15 psychological level, gathered reinforcements, and then continued up.
In many ways the situation is similar to 2007, but much crazier, with Rudolf Havenstein running the central bank.
We have seen this several times in the last year: After hesitating a bit around resistance, the price makes a new high giving confirmation to sidelines traders.
No reason to think this time is different, and as more people notice the trend it can be expected to get stronger.
We can look at previous vertical price rallies, and expect it to go at least to $18. It does not make sense to me that the rally would stop now.
It would be like a big truck running at full speed instantly stopping for no reason.
On the weekly chart clearly it does not have that much distance left to get to all time high, it's not far fetched at all, especially with all the other commodities that went well beyond ATH.
The trick is getting in on H4 to grab a fantastic risk to reward.
The main difficulty with these crazy vertical price moves is you can never enter and once you get in it reverse.
But with Soybeans... It is granting perfect pullbacks and breakouts, at least it has for the past 9 months.
And cherry on the cake, it could just fly past ATH, again. Who knows how far it can go? If this was the winter low volatility, what could the year peak volatility be? Up 25% in a week? Hey it's even possible it ends up in the news and retail goes insane and starts a bubble with dumb money arguments "new paradigm", "market of 7 billion eaters with the green transition", "we are very early" and so on.
The past centuries were full of all sorts of commodity bubbles, tulips that's the one everyone knows about, rabbits, silk, and others ones no one knows about but still have a few traces left in old books.
Search in ideas for "COMMODITY"
CCI - Forming a rising wedge, short at the break of $87 to $80CCI is building a rising wedge formation. If this breaks down below the 50 day moving average at $87, it could be an easy drop down to $80
* Trade Criteria *
Date First Found- January 13, 2017, new trade criteria- February 19, 2017
Pattern/Why- Rising wedge formation
Entry Target Criteria- Break of $87.0
Exit Target Criteria- $80
Stop Loss Criteria- N/A
Please check back for Trade updates. (Note: Trade update is little delayed here.)
CCI - Pennant breakout Earnings play $82.50/$85 Feb-17 PutsCCI is a very speculative earnings play. It seems forming a pennant formation. we think with the earnings it will breakdown.
Trade Criteria
Date first found - January 13, 2017
Entry Target Criteria- $82.50 or $85 Feb-17 Put options
Exit Target Criteria- $77
Stop Loss Criteria- N/A
Trade Status: Pending
(Note: Trade update is delayed here.)
Largest Uranium Miner Uranium is no longer a topic of conversation like it used to be. That's a good thing. Average historical uranium prices in the 80s - 2000s was $10 per pound with an occasional low of $7-8. Uranium spot is currently trading at ~$18 per pound. I think prices could easily get cut in half, especially with cheap energy prices. Prices of Cameco Corp imply a similar trajectory and drop in magnitude of 40-50%, followed by a signal of forming a historical bottom. I'm interested in buying long dated puts on Cameco on any rally with targets in my orange zone. I will be looking for a long opportunity should price reach the orange zone.
Gold bottom?The last fall in gold was one of the largest of the past months and I believe it will mark the end of the bear market we've been since 1370's peak. Please note with the indicators shown there is always lag between the bottom of the indicator and the price, and the harder the oversold, the more complex and laggy the bottom price is.
This is not a trade idea, but a call for patience and analysis before entering your next trade.
KSS: Key Hidden Levels signalsIn this chart I describe the trading signals generated by Tim West's techniques, in particular the methods revolving around the RgMov and Key Earnings Support indicators. You can see signals that failed are very few, and the trade setups obtained in one year have been really precise if executed correctly.
If you're interested in learning the specifics of this discipline, and getting information of new stocks to watch, trade setups fresh from the oven, or in private tuition or trading signals, contact me, and don't forget to stop by the KHL chatroom ( www.tradingview.com ), where me, my good friend Nick Coulby and our mentor, Tim West, usually share ideas and commentary, and new members and subscribers to the indicator pack, can discuss and ask for advice as well.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
EnteroMedics Swing Chart 2Looking like a solid swing trade, reasons shown on the chart, along with another chart with supporting reasons linked to this one.
INUV Pennystock bullish next few daysOver the next few days I see a reach for the .5 Fibonacci level (1.90), or the Pitchfan line; whichever comes first.
Heavy support from at 1.80 from longterm fibonacci level.
I believe the overall trend is still bear for this penny stock, but for the interim its bull.
EURUSD due for the awaited correctionEURUSD pair has started showing sign of weakness on daily with each new low (MACD, RSI, CCI positive divergences), approaching the low of March, which was the lowest rate since over a decade. The long strategy here is to find entries for an anticipated correction, whether by hunting and accumulating longs on lower timeframes or wait for the confirmation next days if it breaks up the falling wedge, or both, depending on the risk profile of this trade, which seems now as a countertrend trade on higher timeframes.
Happy Trading, everyone!
DAXthe INDEX:DAX was is running out gasoline, and seems to have formed one of the following patterns:
cypher
ascending triangle
broadening wedge
or all three. =)
indicators:
The CCI has already shown its downtrend forming a divergence from October 28
THE "RSI" from November 3
MACD from the 9th
It seems that they will be good pips.
ideas, corrections, suggestions.
They are always welcome
BTC/USD Daily Closeup Confirms Bullishness.A close up look at the daily chart shows us several signs of bullishness.
The first is our CCI Corrections. Weekly CCI has shown us a very recent surge above +100 and Daily CCI is nearing the nought line. Any bounce off the nought line and the current dip will be a bullish reversal. Additionally The signal line used for my CCI System (soon to be published) is curled upwards and bullish in color.
UberTrend is also in agreement giving us a bullish supertrend and plotting entry signals for us as Stochastic is oversold.
A further signal is the bounce at support right below the 0.764 Fibonacci retracement level. The doji from yesterday shows us market indecision and leads us to the possibility of a 2 bar reversal over the weekend.