Semiconductor
Micron Tech (MU) – Bearish Options Action Earnings TradeOn Friday's Options Action, the crew analyzed the performance of the semiconductor sector. Semis have reached it's dot-com peak while underperforming the technology sector over the past few months. Micron reports earnings next week and recently failed to make a new high while underperforming the tech sector. Coupled with Micron's sell-off after last quarter's earnings beat suggests another move lower on earnings. Expecting MU to trade lower, Michael Khouw suggests buying a July 57.5/50 Put Vertical for a $2.70 Debit. As of Friday's close, this option is trading at $2.42.
We've structured this trade in OptionsPlay so you can analyze and view this trade along with the supporting technical chart at your convenience. You can also view the Options Action's video by clicking on the following link: MU Options Action
View this OptionsPlay on MU - app.optionsplay.com
Cost: $242
Max Reward: $508
Max Risk: $242
POP: 39.75%
Breakeven: $55.08
Days to Expiry: 32
NVDA - Time to jump back inA few weeks ago, I published a short-term NVDA play that worked out very well - riding the run-up to earnings, targetting $245 (and failing that, sell it right before market close on earnings day). Profits on at-the-money June calls were 100%+
As expected, they handily beat expectations. The stock price, however, were down the day the next morning. The run-up was just a bit too much, from as low as $210, it ran all the way up to $260 (ATH). Now that the price settled back down just under the $250 mark - a price it was seemingly allergic to for months, it is a good opportunity to go long.
I'd recommend calls a few months out, and keep your eye out on the next run-up to earnings.
NVDA - play the run up to earningsNvidia has seen massive growth in the past year. They will be announcing Q1 earnings next Thursday (May 10) after close. Expectations are very, very high, and the run up to the earnings call can be explosive, as well.
However, with expectations so high, it also becomes more risky to hold a position through earnings (EPS estimate is almost double that of Q1 2017, and that was back when NVDA was trading for about $100). With how volatile this earnings season has been so far and how volatile post-earnings has been for NVDA in the past year, I would expect a big jump on Friday (May 11).
The play:
Long - close positions before earnings on May 10, or when it hits $245 to lock in profits, whichever comes first. If you love living life dangerously, you can optionally (no pun intended) buy a straddle/strangle that expires the next day and hope that a big price swing happens.
Disclaimer:
I am long NVDA (June calls)
Six Month Cycle Ending? Take the $250 ProfitsAs strong and loved as the Nvidia name is, it's been caught in a familiar range all year. While everyone wants to boost the price target around $280-300, it's barely been able to crack $250 even during positive sentiment and momentum. The advantages Nvidia has don't need repeating, nor do its merits and prospects. It's an expensive stock and has always traded high because of how "future proof" it's supposed to be.
With another earnings call coming, I don't doubt that it will get a large bump prior to, but it will have to give some incredible numbers yet AGAIN and give insane forward guidance in order to try climbing back up in its previously, unstoppable manner. The range its trapped in is similar to one seen before and trend lines indicate that it will probably stay there, even though it climbs up and down relatively quickly.
I wouldn't expect Nvidia to be a blowout name this year like it was last year, but it will be stable even with all the volatility seen this year. It will be good to trade on any overall market weakness and its new upper price should be noted a week or so after its next call. I give Nvidia a PT of $260 for the foreseeable future and I'd trade it with that ceiling in mind. Don't be greedy with it and take the gains that have been hit consistently at the $250 level. It will take a very, VERY positive and stable market and crazy numbers to really push Nvidia like it was last year. People are more aware now of what is and isn't realistic, especially with a downgraded crypto market, slow product updates and a volatile self-driving auto atmosphere.
Apple: Stable Volatility + Accumulate to $193 PT SpreadDespite the volatility experienced in 2018 so far, Apple has maintained a healthy path along its overall trend lines. Opportunities to accumulate this year have been great and ranges within Fibonacci channels have held strong. Earnings season, WWDC, OLED adoption and other catalysts can help propel stock back up and into a "money zone" that should hold and allow for the stock to be traded by those looking for technical gains. The $180 resistance level has been hit and crossed and should bounce nicely if hit again during a period of market stability/momentum. Price target of $193 falls in line with historical spread of $33. Long AAPL with sustained fundamentals and technicals.
pennies to thousands out of cloud semiconductorcci and percent r upper band above our goal ema see our book for these numbers we use
relative strength good
macd ready to cross wait for good opening candle
good narrow base
















