Sfp
ETH indecision? where are we going ?Hello guys, vOid here for another short update. Took me a couple days to make an update just because nothing really interesting happened to Ethereum.
So let's start from the breakout that happened Oct. 8.
So that day, we were able to breakout from that upper trend but as you can see we got a Bearish SFP, which brought us back to upper trend support. We found support on that trend line and the market gave another try at that SFP. It got rejected again and dumped to that trend line support again, bouncing on it twice before breaking it.
What this tell me is that the second time we hit the upper trend line, there wasn't enough liquidity so stop-loss got liquidated, that why the small bounce before dumping down to lower trend.
Now that we are back to the major trend (lower trend) you can see on both bounce that the SFP was bullish.
So here's my list of what to watch :
We are currently stuck at the tip of the Symmetrical Triangle, with a bullish SFP, I expect a breakout to atleast yellow line.
We need to break the yellow line and re-test SFP (white dotted line 231.50) and close above it with a bullish sign to go bullish long-term here.
There always a possibility that we just fakeout break yellow line to get stop-loss and dump afterward to break red line.
If we do break red line, this a bearish signal to me that we are going to dump to red box or even green box.
Volume is at a lowest point, it's a sign combine with the Symmetrical Triangle that a move either UP or DOWN is coming.
Stay safe, wait for confirmation signals and happy trading !
vOid
P.S. Still improving my english and this platform is the perfect things for me to improve. :D
Is BTC retail being ostensibly bearish in spite of price action?It's Friday, traders, and you know what that means -- liquidity drying up for the weekend as the larger traders take a break and enjoy some down time. This means it is easier to move price with smaller sized positions, so if trading be aware of sudden movements. DXY is getting a bit of a bounce today as I mentioned it would yesterday as a result of it hitting the equilibrium of our box. It is also being supported by the S1 daily pivot. Of course this means that gold has taken a bit of a hit as a result and it is currently finding support on the daily pivot. Remember, gold has been in a descending channel since earlier this year, but it is moving sideways and nearing the resistance of that channel. A clean break should indicate a likely trend reversal.
But we are here to talk about Bitcoin, and how about it? Strong move overnight as expected has price topping out at almost $6800 so far. This has price perilously close to a hotbed of over-leveraged, under-capitalized shorts. A daily candle close at/near the day's high would be extremely bullish. Price has hit overbought on the 4H, but only reached about 76 on RSI so we could see a bit more upward movement before a rest. As I mentioned yesterday and a few days before, my expectation was to see price hit this area and then pullback before pushing higher. We have RSI dropping on the 15 Minute chart as price makes slightly higher highs. OBV remains strong for now. MACD has also dropped, but watch the histogram as it is close to printing hidden bullish divergence with higher lows in price but lower lows in the oscillator. This is only the 15 minute chart, so it doesn't mean we necessarily have to target $7K on a move, but it does mean that we could see a push toward $6815/$6850 if it prints. There is also a possibility to see a sudden thrust up toward $6930 or so before a retreat toward $6650/$6700 if it does so. Failure to make those moves upward should signal a retrace to the bottom of the yellow box, or maybe even the upper horizontal red dotted line depending on how fast the drop happened, before the next potential move up.
The 4H R2 pivot sits at $6847 which is inline with a move toward the $6850 area outlined above. OBV on this TF looks strong at the moment as well. MACD and RSI are bullish with the latter in overbought territory as mentioned. Ultimately, $6985 gives us the equilibrium of the green box above price as well as the descending blue dashed line which denotes the resistance of the large triangle/wedge that has been printing since February. We have had two technical breaks of this resistance so far -- July and September. A breach of this area has me looking for a target of the equilibrium of the upper blue box, where the previous run up was stopped. We have seen a 10% build up of longs since yesterday while shorts have ended up flat. This has me thinking that retail traders are being ostensibly bearish, and contrary to possible price action, which could provide fuel for a short squeeze. Again, I am not saying that it must happen, only that if it does the likely clues are making themselves known with glitter and sparkle.
BTC - 300$ green is not a bottom. From what I see on a daily. We have not much hope for a big reversal or change in trend. But neither i can see us going further low.
First FA:
We have taken out our Feb lows and made an SFP (swing failure pattern). At this point, there was a lot of liquidity that caused this pump we saw recently. But don't think that 300$ up is how the bottom looks like. Interesting that after this swing failure we have bounce exactly from the support level where our most crazy parabolic move started in November ( marked as the last line of support). Another good argument for the Bulls is that we just had 3 weeks of red that is happened only a few times with BTC and next week we will see some green.
Currently, we are sitting in the bullish OB from October 2017. and at the moment we didn't break it and we didn't break the market structure. Failure of this OB retest now will be a great point to short further on the way down. Any move below our last line of support at 58 levels can send us to lower 5s or even to higher 4s as we have a huge volume profile gap and price gap from the pump in October. Those gaps need to be filled as they don't have usually strong support or price action inside. I would watch weekly close and i think we will have our TR 58-65 for the next week.
SFP @ 118.76SFP on a big level with MACD divergence and beyond ATR
EUR is in a large downtrend, however this trade has a good R:R and after this parabolic move down a decent probability of a retracement at this time.
Hit market and got filled at 118.779, note I was a 10 minutes late in spotting this, then paid up a few ticks to avoid being left behind, it subsequently retraced some pips. Perhpas should be more patient on the entry when countering a strong trend as there is a higher probability of getting a better fill during the absorption phase.
