Is BTC retail being ostensibly bearish in spite of price action?
It's Friday, traders, and you know what that means -- liquidity drying up for the weekend as the larger traders take a break and enjoy some down time. This means it is easier to move price with smaller sized positions, so if trading be aware of sudden movements. DXY is getting a bit of a bounce today as I mentioned it would yesterday as a result of it hitting the equilibrium of our box. It is also being supported by the S1 daily pivot. Of course this means that gold has taken a bit of a hit as a result and it is currently finding support on the daily pivot. Remember, gold has been in a descending channel since earlier this year, but it is moving sideways and nearing the resistance of that channel. A clean break should indicate a likely trend reversal.
But we are here to talk about Bitcoin, and how about it? Strong move overnight as expected has price topping out at almost $6800 so far. This has price perilously close to a hotbed of over-leveraged, under-capitalized shorts. A daily candle close at/near the day's high would be extremely bullish. Price has hit overbought on the 4H, but only reached about 76 on RSI so we could see a bit more upward movement before a rest. As I mentioned yesterday and a few days before, my expectation was to see price hit this area and then pullback before pushing higher. We have RSI dropping on the 15 Minute chart as price makes slightly higher highs. OBV remains strong for now. MACD has also dropped, but watch the histogram as it is close to printing hidden bullish divergence with higher lows in price but lower lows in the oscillator. This is only the 15 minute chart, so it doesn't mean we necessarily have to target $7K on a move, but it does mean that we could see a push toward $6815/$6850 if it prints. There is also a possibility to see a sudden thrust up toward $6930 or so before a retreat toward $6650/$6700 if it does so. Failure to make those moves upward should signal a retrace to the bottom of the yellow box, or maybe even the upper horizontal red dotted line depending on how fast the drop happened, before the next potential move up.
The 4H R2 pivot sits at $6847 which is inline with a move toward the $6850 area outlined above. OBV on this TF looks strong at the moment as well. MACD and RSI are bullish with the latter in overbought territory as mentioned. Ultimately, $6985 gives us the equilibrium of the green box above price as well as the descending blue dashed line which denotes the resistance of the large triangle/wedge that has been printing since February. We have had two technical breaks of this resistance so far -- July and September. A breach of this area has me looking for a target of the equilibrium of the upper blue box, where the previous run up was stopped. We have seen a 10% build up of longs since yesterday while shorts have ended up flat. This has me thinking that retail traders are being ostensibly bearish, and contrary to possible price action, which could provide fuel for a short squeeze. Again, I am not saying that it must happen, only that if it does the likely clues are making themselves known with glitter and sparkle.
But we are here to talk about Bitcoin, and how about it? Strong move overnight as expected has price topping out at almost $6800 so far. This has price perilously close to a hotbed of over-leveraged, under-capitalized shorts. A daily candle close at/near the day's high would be extremely bullish. Price has hit overbought on the 4H, but only reached about 76 on RSI so we could see a bit more upward movement before a rest. As I mentioned yesterday and a few days before, my expectation was to see price hit this area and then pullback before pushing higher. We have RSI dropping on the 15 Minute chart as price makes slightly higher highs. OBV remains strong for now. MACD has also dropped, but watch the histogram as it is close to printing hidden bullish divergence with higher lows in price but lower lows in the oscillator. This is only the 15 minute chart, so it doesn't mean we necessarily have to target $7K on a move, but it does mean that we could see a push toward $6815/$6850 if it prints. There is also a possibility to see a sudden thrust up toward $6930 or so before a retreat toward $6650/$6700 if it does so. Failure to make those moves upward should signal a retrace to the bottom of the yellow box, or maybe even the upper horizontal red dotted line depending on how fast the drop happened, before the next potential move up.
The 4H R2 pivot sits at $6847 which is inline with a move toward the $6850 area outlined above. OBV on this TF looks strong at the moment as well. MACD and RSI are bullish with the latter in overbought territory as mentioned. Ultimately, $6985 gives us the equilibrium of the green box above price as well as the descending blue dashed line which denotes the resistance of the large triangle/wedge that has been printing since February. We have had two technical breaks of this resistance so far -- July and September. A breach of this area has me looking for a target of the equilibrium of the upper blue box, where the previous run up was stopped. We have seen a 10% build up of longs since yesterday while shorts have ended up flat. This has me thinking that retail traders are being ostensibly bearish, and contrary to possible price action, which could provide fuel for a short squeeze. Again, I am not saying that it must happen, only that if it does the likely clues are making themselves known with glitter and sparkle.