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Wyckoff

MGC Context: Vertical Initiative & The FOMC "Truth Serum" AuctioMGC Context: Vertical Initiative & The FOMC "Truth Serum" Auction Related Tickers: COMEX_MINI:MGCG2026, COMEX:GC1!, CAPITALCOM:DXY Analysis 1. Market Context (Vertical Initiative Phase) Gold has transitioned into a powerful Vertical Initiative phase today. • The Recovery: Rally has completely erased yesterday’s selling pressure which targeted the 4,900 shelf. • The Structure: Profile is filled with Single Prints , signaling high-conviction Initiative Buying from OTF participants. • The Behavior: One-time-framing higher as we repair the "Flash Crash" damage. Market is aggressively hunting for a new equilibrium. 2. Inventory & Nuance (Absorption & Gamma Resistance) • The Sentinel: Approaching the 5,000 psychological handle. This remains the major Gamma Wall and key structural test. • Inventory: Shifted to Initiative Long . The lack of TPO density at lower levels means the structural floor is "thin" until Acceptance is found at highs. 3. Fundamental Catalyst (The FOMC Minutes) • FOMC Minutes: Releasing later today. This will decide if the rally has the legs to shatter the 5,000 sentinel or if it’s a late-stage trap. Plan & Execution • Bias: Ultra-Bullish Initiative above 4,950. • The Play: Watch for Acceptance with Volume above 4,980 . Target extension toward 5,000–5,020 . • Invalidation: Filling today’s single prints (trade below 4,930 ) kills the vertical momentum. Talk to you for the next update.
COMEX_MINI:MGCJ2026Long
by Ken_Kissaki
MGC Context: The 5,000 Sentinel Rejection & The FOMC Minutes GauMGC Context: The 5,000 Sentinel Rejection & The FOMC Minutes Gauntlet Related Tickers: COMEX_MINI:MGCG2026, COMEX:GC1!, CAPITALCOM:DXY Weekly Recap (Feb 9 – Feb 13, 2026) 1. Market Context (Look Above and Fail) The auction was a textbook "Look Above and Fail" at the 5,000 sentinel. • The Structure: MGC attempted to build value above 5,000 multiple times but lacked Initiative Buying . TPO density failed to develop at the highs. • The Liquidation: Friday the 13th triggered an aggressive Liquidation Break as the 5,000 Gamma Wall held firm. Price tested the 4,940 liquidity shelf. • Excess & Tail: Ended the week with a Responsive Buying Tail on Friday, settling at 4,969.85 . Structural support is being defended despite the rejection of the highs. 2. Inventory & Nuance (Speculative Washout) • Inventory: Friday's flush neutralized Long-Stretched inventory. Weak hands are out. • Structural Anomalies: An HVN has formed at 4,970 , acting as the key pivot for the week ahead. Week Ahead Analysis (Feb 16 – Feb 20, 2026) 1. Developing Profile (Holiday Thinning & Value Discovery) • Monday, Feb 16: Presidents' Day Holiday . Low volume Globex session; watch for false moves. • The Support: 4,900 HVN is the primary downside target if the 4,950 shelf fails. 2. Fundamental Catalyst (The FOMC "Truth Serum") • Wednesday, Feb 18: FOMC Meeting Minutes . Focus on Fed's reaction to tech-driven volatility and tariff noise. Plan & Execution • Bias: Neutral-Bearish below 5,000. • The Play: Monitor Acceptance at 4,970 POC . Failure to reclaim 4,980 targets a rotation to 4,940 . • Invalidation: Value migration above 5,015 kills the corrective thesis. Talk to you for the next update.
COMEX_MINI:MGCJ2026
by Ken_Kissaki
1
Wyckoff Spring Trading PatternCredits: Kathy Lien Graduating from NYU’s Stern School of Business at just 18, Kathy Lien has become one of the most respected experts in global macro and currencies, with more than two decades of trading experience. Kathy began her career at JPMorgan Chase on the interbank FX desk before moving to the cross-markets proprietary trading group, trading FX, options, rates, bonds, equities, and futures. In 2003, she launched DailyFX.com, building a leading team of analysts focused on making forex research accessible to traders. She later served as Director of Currency Research at Global Futures & Forex Ltd., and in 2011 co-founded BKTraders and BK Asset Management with Boris Schlossberg. Kathy is also the Chief Strategist at PropTraderEdge.com, bringing her macro expertise to a new generation of prop traders. Her market insights appear regularly on CNBC and in the Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Bloomberg, and Charles Schwab’s Mind of a Trader. She has authored several trader-favorite books, including “Day Trading and Swing Trading the Currency Market” and “Prop Trading Secrets.” Known for blending fundamental analysis with precise chart reading, Kathy’s techniques form the foundation of BK’s trading strategies today. What Is the Wyckoff Spring Trading Pattern? Markets rarely move in straight lines. Instead, they spend long stretches trading sideways in what Wyckoff described as accumulation (when large players are building long positions) or distribution (when they are unloading them). What is the Wyckoff Spring Trading Pattern? Richard Wyckoff was a trader from the early 1900s who spent much of his career studying how markets really move. What made him different was that he was not only looking for quick profits, he wanted to understand the “why” behind price changes. Through decades of research, he discovered that price patterns often reflect the quiet actions of large players such as banks, funds, and institutions who accumulate positions before an uptrend or distribute them before a downtrend. Today, his approach is called the Wyckoff Method, and at the heart of it is a simple but powerful truth: prices are driven by the balance between supply (selling) and demand (buying). Accumulation and Distribution Markets rarely move in straight lines. Instead, they spend long stretches trading sideways in what Wyckoff described as accumulation (when large players are building long positions) or distribution (when they are unloading them). To most traders, these sideways ranges feel dull or confusing. But Wyckoff saw them as preparation for the next big move. If demand eventually outweighs supply, the range breaks upward. If supply takes control, it breaks downward. Learning to recognize these ranges and where the balance of power is shifting is the foundation of Wyckoff’s work. The Wyckoff Spring One of Wyckoff’s most practical ideas is the Spring pattern. It happens like this: Price dips below support. Traders watching that support level often panic and sell, thinking the market has broken down. The breakdown does not hold. Instead of collapsing further, price quickly pops back above support. The range continues. Price settles back into the trading range and often begins climbing higher. This “spring” below support is essentially a test. If sellers cannot push the market lower, it means supply has been absorbed. Buyers quietly step in, and the path upward opens. d1-invdn-com.investing.com Why It Matters The Spring pattern is not magic. It does not show up every week, and when it does, it still requires judgment. But it can be a helpful reminder that markets are full of traps. A breakdown is not always the start of a bear trend. It can sometimes be the final shakeout before a rally. For traders, the lesson is humility: wait for confirmation. If price breaks support but immediately springs back, it might not be weakness, it might be strength in disguise. How to Apply It Wyckoff’s method can be used in any market, whether stocks, forex, futures, or crypto, and on any timeframe. Here’s a real-life example: d1-invdn-com.investing.com Still, there are a few practical guidelines: Look for context. A Spring is more meaningful after a prolonged downtrend or at a clear support level. Use multiple timeframes. A Spring on a daily chart carries more weight than one on a one-minute chart. Watch volume. Increased buying volume on the bounce is often a sign that demand is returning. Combine signals. If a Spring aligns with other indicators such as oversold conditions or a major moving average, it deserves more attention. The Bigger Picture The Spring is only one part of Wyckoff’s larger framework. He also described the full cycle of accumulation, markup, distribution, and markdown. The goal is not to memorize patterns but to think in terms of who controls the market, buyers or sellers, and when that control shifts. A Balanced View It is easy to get caught up in trading patterns as if they are guaranteed signals. Wyckoff himself warned against this. No method removes uncertainty. Instead, his work offers a way to better read the story of the market and avoid being tricked by moves that seem obvious at first glance. By studying patterns like the Spring, we can remind ourselves that markets are often designed to fool the majority. Staying patient, waiting for confirmation, and thinking about supply and demand can help us avoid common mistakes and trade with more confidence. Which stock should you buy in your very next trade? AI computing powers are changing the stock market. Investing.com's ProPicks AI includes dozens of winning stock portfolios chosen by our advanced AI. Year to date, 2 out of 3 global portfolios are beating their benchmark indexes, with 88% in the green. Our flagship Tech Titans strategy doubled the S&P 500 within 18 months, including notable winners like Super Micro Computer (+185%) and AppLovin (+157%).
ICMARKETS:XAUUSDShort
by uzair2join
QQQ - Ready For A BreatherI believe I have identified another Wyckoff distribution pattern on QQQ. In early October, we saw the first signs of selling. We got a selling climax at the start of November. We have consolidated within this range over the past 3 months, testing the channel's highs and lows. It is not a perfect Wyckoff schematic, but the volume has certainly supported a move lower especially as of late. For confirmation, I would like to see this current support level hold one more time. If it does, it would be the buyer's last gasp before taking out the low like a crashing elevator. I am effectively looking for some form of bear flag, descending triangle, or rising wedge pattern. I will consider this trade invalidated if we begin to see strong closings above the midline of the channel. At that point, I may need to reassess the quality of the pattern or confirm that the pattern has failed. The target to the downside would first be the 200 MA, which currently rests at 577. Below there is 560. I am still a bit fuzzy on the calculations of Wyckoff, but the point-and-figure chart suggests the final target should be about 520. I feel we would need a strong catalyst to reach those levels, but anything is possible these days.
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by Decam9
2
BTC/USD - Advanced Wyckoff Distribution Analysis: Targeting $61K Hello Traders, I’m sharing my latest outlook on Bitcoin, utilizing a pure Wyckoff Method approach to identify the current market cycle. We are currently witnessing a textbook Distribution schematic playing out. Technical Breakdown: Schematic Identification: After a prolonged consolidation, the price failed to sustain momentum above the $71K-$72K zone. Phase C & LPSY: Following the "Test" of the highs (Upthrust), we saw a clear rejection. The subsequent LPSY (Last Point of Supply) confirmed that the path of least resistance is now to the downside. Current Trade: I am currently in a short position. Stops have already been moved into profit to ensure a risk-free ride to the target. Target: My primary objective is the $61,900 region, where we expect to see the completion of this markdown phase. About the Analyst: I am Daniel, a Wyckoff specialist with 12 years of experience in the financial markets. My expertise lies in deciphering institutional footprints and market cycles. In a world of indicators, I prefer to focus on the only thing that matters: the relationship between Supply and Demand.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by cdanielc293
3
The Elephant Jungle 2/10/26 Page 5On the 1H timeframe, we just put in a SFP(swing failure pattern), of the 1H high. That makes the 1H low technically weak, which means price should be working its way back down toward that low. The problem is, we have been stuck in this Current Range since Friday. So far, we have 2 taps at the high of the range and 1 tap at the low. There is the possibility that we put in a 3rd tap and made a Wyckoff Model 2 Distribution already. Visually, it looks like a head and shoulders pattern. But the way this is playing out feels slow. Too slow. Because of that, I am leaning more toward a Wyckoff Model 1 Distribution possibly playing out, where we sweep the highs one more time and then drop. That idea also lines up with what I would personally like to see, which is a push into the 4H Supply Range followed by a backtest of the Macro Range Low. But maybe this is not that deep. Maybe this is just the Bears slow grinding price back down to the range low. Or maybe the Bulls are letting the Bears push it down a bit so they can catch a bounce off the 1H Internal Demand Range or the 15m Order Block and then push price up into the 4H Supply Range, maybe even a little higher. Honestly, that would not be a bad idea either, especially since the back end of that 1H Internal Demand Range lines up perfectly with the 618 Golden Pocket. Who knows. All I know for sure is that price action in the Jungle is real crappy right now, and New York better come with it.
by RedElephant420
KLCI SELLThis is a continuation, update from my previous post - I calculated the estimation projection for KLCI based 3rd Wyckoff Law @ late October 2025 : Conservative Target : 1640 - 1676 Agressive Target : 1771 In a hindisght, i never thought that it would reach the agressive target -im closely monitoring this level Since october 2025, i have been on cash mostly. With periodic swing in between around mid october, and %100 sitting + resting at the moment Our attempt shorting the KLCI failed for 2x : 1/ 2/ Based on my previous data, my timing for the top would always, be too early. As always i am preparing for the next opportunity. In stock market, nothing much has changed except the names of companies & players. Histroy will always repeat.
FTSEMYX:FBMKLCIShort
by drsyariz
The Elephant Jungle Page 7So now we’ve dropped down to the 15m timeframe, and wouldn’t you know it, we’ve got a 15M range forming. Two taps at the low. One tap at the high. That alone puts a Wyckoff Accumulation on the table. The real question is which model the market wants to play. Model 1 Accumulation: Price sweeps the range low a third time, then pops back up toward the range high. If this plays out, the Macro Range Low could get swept as well, opening the door for a move into the 1M Demand Range. And if that move holds... I’d say there’s a real chance we could eventually see ATHs again off that bounce. The second play is a Model 2 Accumulation, which would show up as an inverted head and shoulders. All the criteria are there. We’ve got a 45m Internal Demand Range to bounce from, and there’s even a clean 15m order block sitting above it. This could be the area where the Bulls plan to pop off just enough to push price back up into the 1W Supply Range. Now let’s put on another pair of glasses. If price sweeps the high of the range again before touching the demand zones, that would give us a second tap on the high. And at that point a Wyckoff Distribution enters the chat. From there, it’s a clean 50/50. Accumulation or Distribution. Continuation or collapse. Looks like London might leave the decision up to New York.
by RedElephant420
TROW Long 1D Investment Conservative TradeConservative Trade + long balance + volumed ICE + support zone + 1/2 correction + weak approach + biggest volume 2Sp- + last weak approach Calculated affordable stop limit 1 to 2 R/R take profit 1M CounterTrend "- short balance + volumed expanding ICE + support zone + weak approach + biggest volume 2Sp+ - price went too deep into neutral zone - weak test didn't reach volume zone + 1/2 correction" 1Y Trend "+ long impulse + 1/2 correction - strong approach + T2 level + supporting zone + volumed interaction bar"
NASDAQ:TROWLong
by MishaSuvorov
Is DAVE a Bull Trap? A Wyckoff Distribution take DAVE is flashing elements of a Wyckoff Distribution and could be setting up for a pullback soon. The market moves in cycles: buy low, uptrend, sell high, downtrend, repeat. The sell high part is what we are interested in for today's chart. Wyckoff theorized that you could identify when participants are finally starting to sell their shares by analyzing price and volume. The process is roughly outlined via his trading schematics. *Note: The indicator on the chart highlights bullish and bearish candles that have above average volume for easy identification. Phase A is all about stopping the uptrend. DAVE had a monster run from its previous earnings and we see our first evidence of profit taking at the PS. The buying climax (BC) is met with a large red sell candle with above average volume. Phase B is about shedding shares. Note the wide candle spreads and large selling volume after the UT. Now that a range has been identified, institutions will use it to manipulate price and exit their positions. Note that the large volume days only appear at the top or bottom of the range. Phase C is optional but I believe we are currently in it. Phase C is a test to see if there are any more buyers out there before they enter the downtrending phase. Institutions will break price above the trading range to make it seem as if the trend will continue to the upside when, in reality, they are loading up the short trade. I have observed that this most recent earnings report has caused significant volatility. I am looking for institutions to try to send price higher. I think 180-190 would be ideal. That price is just around the initial UT high, and many traders are watching for new highs. The downside target would be about $110. Please let me know your thoughts.
NASDAQ:DAVEShort
by Decam9
Possible Wyckoff accumulation in ETHUSDETHUSD appears to be in an accumulation phase now, I tried to make a self-explanatory chart here. It also corresponds with the sentiment quite well with all those institutional sells, while the news about them is spread across the net like a wildfire. But what if I told you that those sell-offs are not "institutional". Well, they are, but not in a sense that "big money are up to something". All those funds just manage their clients' funds and sometimes Black Rocks and other big boys in the sand simply clear their positions to have neutral exposure. Wait, those sell-offs were made by the general public, not big money insiders? Always have been . As to the current situation, we might have plenty of time in store for us before we break the channel, however the movement is often swift. Everything is on the chart already. Every piece of known information is already accounted for in the price chart. Don't get into FOMO. Do your own research.
BINANCE:ETHUSD
by trolldead
GoldContext: The 5,000 Sentinel & The Structural Void Related Tickers: COMEX_MINI:MGCG2026, COMEX:GC1!, CAPITALCOM:DXY Weekly Recap (Jan 19 – Jan 23, 2026) 1. Market Context (Extreme Vertical Initiative) The auction was a display of Vertical Initiative driven by geopolitical shocks. • The Structure: MGC sliced through 4,700 and 4,800 with minimal horizontal development, leaving a Thin Profile with Single Print sequences. • The Behavior: Pure Price Discovery . Friday ended with a Buying Tail , closing at 4,979.7 , confirming OTF buyers remained aggressive into the close. 2. Inventory & Nuance (Safe-Haven Structural Gaps) • Inventory: Stretched Long . The lack of TPO density below current prices suggests a fragile structure. • Structural Anomalies: Rapid moves left behind Low Volume Nodes (LVNs) . These are magnets for future Mean-Reversion if the safe-haven bid cools. Week Ahead Analysis (Jan 26 – Jan 30, 2026) 1. Developing Profile (The 5,000 Battlefield) • The Magnet: 5,000 is the primary sentinel. Acceptance above triggers a shift into uncharted distributions. • The Pivot: 4,980 is the floor. Acceptance below suggests a Look Above and Fail . 2. Fundamental Catalyst (The FOMC Gauntlet) • The Fed (Jan 28): Main event. FOMC rhetoric will decide if the auction continues its vertical search or rotates to find balance. Daytrade Plan (Jan 26, 2026) • Bias: Bullish Initiative above 4,980. • Scenario A: Acceptance with Volume above 5,000 targets 5,050+. • Scenario B: Rejection at 5,000 targets rotation to the 4,900 HVN . • Invalidation: Value migration below 4,830 kills the immediate bull case. Talk to you for the next update.
COMEX_MINI:MGCG2026Long
by Ken_Kissaki
Bitcoin AnalysisIt’s been a while since I last shared an idea. Today, I want to talk about Bitcoin. With all the uncertainty since Trump became president, I’m going to stay away from fundamentals for now. Instead, I’ll focus purely on the technical side—Wyckoff, chart patterns, and trend analysis. 1. Wyckoff (Weekly): I think we’re currently in a markdown phase following distribution. 2. Patterns: The last structure looked like a double top (a reversal signal), and right now it’s forming a potential bear flag, which could mean the downtrend continues. 3. Trendline: A key bullish trendline has already broken, which strengthens the case for a reversal. Overall, I can’t deny there’s a strong chance we see more downside soon. What’s next? - I’m waiting for confirmation of a lower high , and I’ll take action from there. - On the other hand, if Bitcoin shows strong signs of re-accumulation, I’m also ready to take the opposite trade.
Short
by rudyjo