Are Precious Metals Finally Reacting To Fed Fear?Myself, like many others, continue to believe Precious Metals (#gold & #silver) are about to enter a very explosive price phase. The past 12+ months have seen Gold rally after COVID, then enter an extended decline phase as the speculative bubble distracted everyone from core value. Now that the Fed and GCBs are dancing around rate increases, higher inflation, and consumer demands, will Precious Metals shift direction and start a new up trend?
Time will tell, but this recent Double-Bottom in Gold certainly looks promising.
I'm still cautiously optimistic the past 10+ years of extremely easy money policies will setup a huge rally phase in Metals. Near Dec 2019, my main cycle system moved into a Depreciation cycle phase. That means we have until 2029+ for this cycle to continue to unwind. Remember that is still 6~7+ years from now.
The unwinding phase will be very similar to the 2000~2009 Depreciation phase - sideways trends with extreme volatility.
I expect a slow melt upward over the next 3+ years, eventually extending into a parabolic upward price trend (increasing in speed and volatility as we near 2028~29).
This recent BASE ($1690) will probably turn into a very strong decades-long base/support.
We've never been anywhere close to what is happening in the US/Global markets before. But I'm here to tell you the real fun start after 2026~27. Until then, the global markets are shifting in structure, attempting to find support - just like what happened near 1997~2001.
Get ready for another 5+ years of big volatility and trends.
Follow my research. Don't miss these huge trends.
SIL
First Majestic Silver AG - Rare OpportunityFirst Majestic silver along with the rest of the mining stocks have been pummeled the last few weeks.. or months..er I mean years. It is my strong opinion that a rare opportunity has opened up in many of these stocks - historical.
These monthly candles really help depict the birds eye view necessary to spot the larger patterns and trend. AG has been forming a large wedge for many years and broke out a few years ago.. Price is now on the launchpad. It might be a slow rocket getting off the ground but it has a tremendous amount of fuel.
SIlverf#ckSilver tested it's main support and breakup candle this week with weekly bullish divergence. RSI near the weekly lows again. So far this level looks like it will hold it - bullish.
My Gold/Silver ratio chart reached the target (see analysis below). I think Silver can be a big surprise here, and gold/silver ratio will now start making it's way down to 60 or mid 50's.
Price target is 35 if this is correct. Good luck!
Title comes from the Smashing Pumpkins.
SILVER RESISTANCE RESISTANCE RESISTANCE... NOW SUPPORT?Looking back at silver over the last decade reveals a very significant trend. Note the resistance peaks and where silver crawled around in the dirt for years and years. In 2020-21 silver broke out of that trend only to come all the way back down the touch the trend.. right now. Is the old ceiling the new floor? It very well could be. It is my opinion that silver will more than 10x over the next 6-10 years. However, we are in strange times and things are accelerating. It is possible that this 6-10 year forecast is too small-minded and things happen much sooner. I am very interested in silver, gold, and the miners moving forward and I believe this could be a bottom.
Arc in GDXJ / GDX ratio points to junior mining bullmarketIf you make a ratio of Gold Juniors to Gold Majors, you will find that there is an arc in the making since 2010.
It looks like we are about to enter the fun side of the arc, where juniors outperform majors.
This is historically often a sign of liquidity and luster returning to gold, in the form of rising gold prices, and risk securities outperforming.
Got Juniors?
Gold is cheap versus Miner ETFsGold and Silver mining equities remain very cheap relative to gold.
Using historical prices and disregarding dilution, the upside of miners to current gold prices is
GDX: 96%
SILJ: 132%
GDXJ: 260%
Silver holding the lineSilver, which has been hit this on Thursday, made a comeback right after this quick selloff. This quick recovery might be seen as a confirmation of the bull market in place since last year, as the deep has been bought quite quickly by investors.
This set up seems particularly positive for the months to come, in this reflationary recovery in which silver would play a role as a monetary metal (a store of value), as well as an industrial one.
Alien metals in a very positive set upAlien metals (UFO) after an 8-month correction seems to be about to turn up again judging by:
- A momentum turning up
- A reverse head and shoulders pattern
- A price above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages
- A positive Ichimoku set up
Knowing that last year's up leg ended up with a multiplication by 30 of its price, before correcting, UFO could this time once again become a very profitable investment for anyone long junior silver miners.
Retesting its support before reaching new highsAlien Metals, which is a high beta play on silver, but also other base metals such as iron or copper, seems to be retesting its resistance after a 7-month consolidation.
Given the positive dynamic of precious and base metals, $UFO might reach new highs in the coming semester.
Silver Silver, after a decade long fall, has entered a positive momentum and now offers a high risk-return trade-off.
Correcting the price of silver for the quantity of money, we can notice that, according to this measure, the last silver peak of 2011 would now be equal to roughly $100.
While this does not indicate whether silver should reach $100 over the medium term, it for sure highlights the potential of silver and silver miners.
SILVERCREST METALSBUy the breakout of the rectangle, this is one of the best silver ore bodies discovered on Earth this century, when silver breaks out this may go 4-500%. GLTA
SIL points of interestIf SIL can hold above 44.5 the next few days, we could see a breakout to 66, 67 over the next few weeks. If not, it could drop as low as 40 before a bounce. That would not be surprising either as we're in a time of extra volatility likely for the next month. If it drops much below 40 I would get the hell out of all stocks.