Get started

Silveranalysis

Long-term bullish action on Silver?I touched on the longer-term price action of Spot Silver (XAG/USD) last week, showing that the unit is on track to shake hands with a Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ) of a monthly harmonic bat pattern between US$46.79 and US$42.68. Keeping things aligned with the harmonic landscape, you will note that H1 price action recently printed an AB=CD bullish pattern at US$38.87 (100% projection ratio), set just north of a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement ratio of US$38.75. While the H1 chart is generally considered short-term in nature, you may find that given we have longer-term flow suggesting scope for additional outperformance, short-term dip-buyers may consider holding a portion of their long positions open in an attempt to catch some of the possible longer-term upside.
FPMARKETS:XAGUSDLong
by FP Markets
SILVER ( XAGUSD ): Still Bullish! Take The Buy Setups!In this Weekly Market Forecast, we will analyze the XAGUSD (SILVER) for the week of July 21-25th. Silver remains a Strong Buy rating. There is no technical reason to look for shorts. Only buys right now, until we see a bearish break of structure. Then sells can be considered. That having been said, like Gold, there is a 4H +FVG that we are watching. If it holds, higher prices will ensue. If it fails, the lows become the draw on liquidity. We'll soon see how it plays out. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
FX:XAGUSDLong
by RT_Money
4
The AI Boom's Unsung HeroThe rise of artificial intelligence isn’t just shaking up tech companies it’s quietly transforming the global silver market in a big way. As major players like NVIDIA, Google and others ramp up their AI infrastructure silver is becoming more critical than ever. Why? Because silver, thanks to its unmatched electrical conductivity, plays a key role in powering the hardware behind AI. Silver is the most conductive metal on Earth. That makes it perfect for high-performance computing something AI needs a lot of. It’s especially important in data centers and advanced semiconductors, where both electrical and thermal performance are mission-critical. What’s really interesting is that AI servers tend to use two to three times more silver than traditional data center servers. That’s because AI workloads are more power-hungry, generate more heat and require more complex cooling and electrical systems. Simply put, more AI means more silver. If there’s one company at the heart of this trend it’s NVIDIA. Analysts at Morgan Stanley expect NVIDIA to consume a staggering 77% of all silicon wafers used for AI accelerators in 2025 up from 51% in 2024. That adds up to around 535,000 300-mm wafers a year each of which contains silver in key components. All of this AI growth is showing up in the numbers. Industrial silver demand hit an all-time high of 680.5 million ounces in 2024. The electronics industry alone uses around 250 million ounces per year and AI is now the fastest-growing part of that. Despite all this demand, silver supply just isn’t keeping up. The market’s been in deficit for four straight years, with a total shortfall of 678 million ounces between 2021 and 2024. That’s roughly ten months of global mine output gone missing from the balance sheet. It’s no surprise, then, that silver prices have been climbing fast. As of July 2025 silver’s up nearly 30% for the year. Looking further ahead I see room for silver to keep climbing: In the short term (2025): $36–$42 per ounce seems realistic By 2026: Potential for $50+ as more AI growth stays strong AI isn’t just changing how we work, communicate, or compute—it’s literally reshaping the commodities that make this technology possible. Silver, once thought of mainly in the context of jewelry or coins, is now a backbone material for the AI revolution.
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by YavuzAkbay
Long-term bearish bat pattern on SilverLonger-term price action on the price of Spot Silver (XAG/USD) is on track to shake hands with a Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ) of a monthly bat pattern between US$46.79 and US$42.68. What this also tells Silver traders is that according to this pattern’s structure, there is scope for additional outperformance. As a result, I am closely monitoring monthly support from US$35.70 in the event of a pullback unfolding. Written by FP Markets Chief Market Analyst Aaron Hill
FPMARKETS:XAGUSDLong
by FP Markets
“Can This XAG/USD Setup Make You the Next Market Thief?”🏴‍☠️ Operation Silver Swipe — Thief Trading Heist Plan for XAG/USD 🚨 Target Locked: The Silver Vault 🧳🎯 🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!🌟 Dear Market Hustlers & Chart Whisperers, 🕵️‍♂️💼📉💰 Step into the shadows with our stealth plan based on our signature Thief Trading Style—a mix of smart technicals and crafty fundamentals. Today, we’re eyeing XAG/USD (Silver) for a clean sweep. Here's how to gear up for the breakout job: 🎯 Entry Zone — “The Heist Is On!” 💥 📍Key Level: Break & Retest above 37.000 – that's your cue to act. 🔑Strategy: Buy Stop Orders: Set above the breakout level Buy Limit Orders: Use recent 15/30M swings for a sneaky pullback entry 🎯 🛑 Stop Loss — “Every Thief Has a Backup Plan” 🎭 Place your SL like a pro, not a panic button! 📌Recommended: Around 35.660 using the 4H nearest candle wick swing low place after the breakout entry. ⚠️Tip: Adjust based on your risk appetite, lot size, and number of entries. You’re the mastermind, not a minion. 🎯 Target — “Escape Route” 🏃‍♂️💸 📌 First checkpoint: 38.800 📌 Or take your loot early if the heat rises! (Overbought zones, trend traps, or reversal zones) 💡 Scalper's Shortcut 💡 Go only long for safety. If you’ve got the cash stack, jump in fast. If you’re more of a sneaky swing trader, follow the roadmap and trail your SL to secure that bag 🧳📈 🔍 Market Status Silver’s in a Neutral Phase – but signs point to an upward getaway 🚀 Fueling this momentum: Macro & Fundamental trends COT Positioning Intermarket Clues Sentimental Signals 🔗 Read the full breakdown check there 👉🔗🔗🌏🌎! 📢 Trading Alert — News Release Caution ⚠️ Don’t get caught mid-escape during news bombs! 💣 ✅ Avoid fresh entries during high-impact events ✅ Use trailing SL to lock in your gains and cover your tracks 💖 Smash the Boost Button if you vibe with this plan 💥 Support the crew and help keep the charts hot and the loot flowing. Your boost powers up our next big heist 🚁🔥 📡 Stay tuned for more street-smart setups... we rob the charts, not the rules! 🐱‍👤💸📊💎
FXOPEN:XAGUSDLong
by The-Thief
“Can This XAG/USD Setup Make You the Next Market Thief?”🏴‍☠️ Operation Silver Swipe — Thief Trading Heist Plan for XAG/USD 🪙💸 🚨 Target Locked: The Silver Vault 🧳🎯 🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!🌟 Dear Market Hustlers & Chart Whisperers, 🕵️‍♂️💼📉💰 Step into the shadows with our stealth plan based on our signature Thief Trading Style—a mix of smart technicals and crafty fundamentals. Today, we’re eyeing XAG/USD (Silver) for a clean sweep. Here's how to gear up for the breakout job: 🎯 Entry Zone — “The Heist Is On!” 💥 📍Key Level: Break & Retest above 36.500 – that's your cue to act. 🔑Strategy: Buy Stop Orders: Set above the breakout level Buy Limit Orders: Use recent 15/30M swings for a sneaky pullback entry 🎯 🛑 Stop Loss — “Every Thief Has a Backup Plan” 🎭 Place your SL like a pro, not a panic button! 📌Recommended: Around 31.700 using the 4H swing low ⚠️Tip: Adjust based on your risk appetite, lot size, and number of entries. You’re the mastermind, not a minion. 🎯 Target — “Escape Route” 🏃‍♂️💸 📌 First checkpoint: 37.700 📌 Or take your loot early if the heat rises! (Overbought zones, trend traps, or reversal zones) 💡 Scalper's Shortcut 💡 Go only long for safety. If you’ve got the cash stack, jump in fast. If you’re more of a sneaky swing trader, follow the roadmap and trail your SL to secure that bag 🧳📈 🔍 Market Status Silver’s in a Neutral Phase – but signs point to an upward getaway 🚀 Fueling this momentum: Macro & Fundamental trends COT Positioning Intermarket Clues Sentimental Signals 🔗 Read the full breakdown check there 👉🔗🔗🌏🌎! 📢 Trading Alert — News Release Caution ⚠️ Don’t get caught mid-escape during news bombs! 💣 ✅ Avoid fresh entries during high-impact events ✅ Use trailing SL to lock in your gains and cover your tracks 💖 Smash the Boost Button if you vibe with this plan 💥 Support the crew and help keep the charts hot and the loot flowing. Your boost powers up our next big heist 🚁🔥 📡 Stay tuned for more street-smart setups... we rob the charts, not the rules! 🐱‍👤💸📊💎
FXOPEN:XAGUSDLong
by The-Thief
XAGUSD Weekly Analysis (MMC) : Bullish Channel Toward Target🧠 1. Trend Shift Confirmed – Silver in Full Bullish Momentum Silver has officially broken free from its multi-year sideways range and has entered a well-defined ascending channel, pushing toward higher highs week after week. The momentum is strong and supported by a combination of technical elements, structure shifts, and clean retests. The trend is now clear: bullish, with the price aiming for the Next Reversal Zone between $46 and $48 — a level not seen since mid-2020. 🔷 2. Blue Ray Break – Start of the Rally The breakout began with a clean move above the Blue Ray trendline, a key structure that had suppressed Silver’s growth for several years. As the chart notes: “Blue Ray Always Continue Trend” — until broken. Once Silver broke above this resistance, it not only confirmed the trend reversal but also triggered the formation of a new bullish market structure, supported by aggressive buying. 🔁 3. SR – Interchange Zone Holding Strong The SR Interchange zone (around $27 – $30) has played a critical role in this breakout. It acted as: Resistance during the multi-year range. Then Support after the breakout, confirming a classic Support-Resistance Flip (SRF). This zone now serves as a solid demand base, giving the rally a stable foundation to push higher. 🪙 4. QFL Formation – Momentum Confirmation The breakout also aligns with a QFL (Quick Flip Level) structure — a powerful bullish continuation pattern. QFL setups form when price breaks above a former base, pulls back slightly, and then quickly resumes the upward trend. This indicates that buyers are aggressive and unwilling to let price fall too far, fueling a rally. Combined with the ascending channel, the QFL structure gives extra confidence that Silver is on track to reach the $46–$48 Reversal Zone. 📏 5. Trendline & Channel – Price Structure in Control Silver is currently moving cleanly within an ascending parallel channel, respecting both upper resistance and lower support trendlines. The inner trendline has been tested multiple times, and price is now riding its upper half. This shows: Buyers are in control. Each correction is shallow. Market confidence is growing week after week. Expect volatility to increase as Silver approaches the next target area. 🎯 6. Next Reversal Zone: $46 – $48 The green box at the top marks the Next Reversal Zone, where Silver might: Stall temporarily and consolidate. Or face a pullback back toward the mid-channel line or lower support. This zone corresponds to: Historical supply area (2020 highs) Strong psychological resistance Potential profit-taking by institutions or swing traders 🔭 Trade Scenarios to Watch ✅ Bullish Continuation: If Silver maintains support above $36 and remains inside the ascending channel, we may see a smooth ride into the reversal zone. Look for: Break-and-retest of the midline Bullish candles with long wicks on dips ⚠️ Short-Term Rejection: If price reaches $46–$48 and shows signs of exhaustion (like long upper wicks, evening star, or bearish engulfing), expect a healthy pullback toward $35–$36 or even $32. As long as the ascending structure holds, bulls remain in control. 🧩 Key Technical Levels Element Zone / Level Action SR Interchange Support $27 – $30 Strong demand zone Blue Ray Breakout Confirmed Trend reversal signal QFL Zone Around $36 Retest and rally confirmation Reversal Zone $46 – $48 High-probability reaction area Trendline Support Dynamic ($35–$36) Bullish channel continuation 📌 Final Thoughts: Silver is now playing in the big leagues again. With the Blue Ray broken, QFL confirmed, and price following a disciplined trendline channel, this rally looks both technically sound and fundamentally strong. Watch the $46–$48 zone carefully. Whether price rejects or breaks through, there will be high-probability setups for both breakout traders and dip buyers. Stay disciplined, don’t chase, and let price give you confirmation.
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by GoldMasterTrades
Silver is Again in the Bullish directionHello Traders In This Chart XAGUSD HOURLY Forex Forecast By FOREX PLANET today XAGUSD analysis 👆 🟢This Chart includes_ (XAGUSD market update) 🟢What is The Next Opportunity on XAGUSD Market 🟢how to Enter to the Valid Entry With Assurance Profit This CHART is For Trader's that Want to Improve Their Technical Analysis Skills and Their Trading By Understanding How To Analyze The Market Using Multiple Timeframes and Understanding The Bigger Picture on the Charts
CAPITALCOM:SILVERLong
by ForexMasters2000
1
Silver (XAGUSD) Structural Analysis : Curve break & TargetSilver is exhibiting a textbook bullish continuation pattern, guided by a parabolic curve structure that reflects intensifying buyer momentum. This unique setup provides a high-probability trading roadmap as we approach a major reversal zone—one where smart money may look to offload long positions or enter fresh shorts. This analysis aims to help traders anticipate the likely path of XAGUSD based on structure, liquidity behavior, and trend psychology. 🔍 Key Structural Observations: 1. Black Mind Curve Support (Dynamic Bullish Structure) This parabolic arc acts as dynamic support. Every bounce from the curve shows growing strength in buyer conviction. The price is riding the curve upward with higher lows, signaling accumulation with momentum. This is not a standard trendline but rather a curve reflecting the accelerated nature of this uptrend. 2. Aggressive Bullish Momentum The recent price behavior has shown strong impulsive candles to the upside followed by shallow corrections, confirming bullish dominance. Volume and candle size increase near the curve, suggesting institutional interest. 3. Reversal Zone: 37.20 – 37.45 Marked as the Next Reversal Zone, this green box represents a key supply area where previous swing highs exist. Historically, price struggled to break this region cleanly, making it a high-probability reaction zone. Expect either: a bearish rejection (short-term correction), or a consolidation before a breakout continuation. 4. Liquidity Pool & Needed Volume Zone (~35.20 – 35.50) The market often revisits zones of untapped liquidity. This area likely holds: Buy-side stop losses Unfilled institutional orders If the market needs a deeper retracement, this is the zone to watch for re-accumulation. 🧠 Market Psychology Behind This Setup: This structure suggests a classic case of smart money accumulation, with price moving upward in a controlled yet aggressive fashion. The parabolic nature of the move points to: Increasing retail buy-ins FOMO-driven entries Possible engineered sweep before the next impulse The reversal zone could become a profit-taking area for institutions. If large players want to continue higher, they may first induce a pullback to absorb more volume at lower prices (near the curve or liquidity zone). 🔧 Tactical Playbook for Traders: For Bulls (Long Bias): Watch for pullbacks toward the curve or liquidity zone. Enter long positions on bullish confirmation (e.g., engulfing candles, pin bars) off those zones. Targets: 37.20 – 37.45, possibly higher if broken with strength. For Bears (Countertrend Traders): Wait for clear rejection patterns in the reversal zone. Use confirmation like RSI divergence, momentum slowdown, or distribution volume. Target: Curve support or deeper liquidity zone for reentry. 📌 Key Technical Levels: Zone Price Range Description Reversal Zone 37.20 – 37.45 Resistance / Take-Profit Area Curve Support Dynamic (rising) Support based on parabolic arc Liquidity Pool 35.20 – 35.50 High-volume demand zone 🧭 Conclusion Silver is currently in a momentum-driven phase supported by smart money activity. The parabolic structure and clean liquidity map give traders a clear plan to engage both long and short setups with timing and precision. Patience around the reversal zone will be key, as the next major move may depend on how price behaves in this critical area.
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by GoldMasterTrades
"SILVER (XAGUSD) July Breakdown = Trend Reversal SetupSilver’s explosive rally may be running out of steam — the July setup is screaming SELL. 📌 Using Vinnie’s Trading Cheat Code System, here’s the case: ✅ CC SELL confirmed near the 37.30 zone ✅ RSI Overbought printed — classic blow-off top conditions ✅ MACD rolling over + weakening momentum ✅ Price rejected cleanly from the top of trend channel 🎯 Bearish targets: 34.60 – first reaction zone / channel midpoint 32.80 – channel base and high-volume node This is a prime setup for a mean reversion trade or trend reversal, depending on how July opens. Looking to build shorts into rallies. 🧠 Powered by: Confirm Alerts CC MACD Screener RSI OB/OS Zones Cheat Code Trend Indicator Watch for continued weakness below 35.80 to confirm momentum shift.
OANDA:XAGUSDShort
by bluesignalfx
3
"The Vault is Open!" - Time to Steal Silver Pips🔥 XAG/USD SILVER HEIST: Bearish Raid in Progress! (Short Setup) 🔥 🦹♂️ ATTENTION SILVER BANDITS! To the Metals Mercenaries & Risk-Takers! 💰🔪 Using our 🔥Thief Trading Tactics🔥, we're executing a bearish raid on XAG/USD - this is not advice, just a strategic robbery plan for traders who play to win. 📉 THE SILVER VAULT BREAK-IN (SHORT ENTRY PLAN) 🎯 Loot Zone: 34.500 (or escape earlier if bulls fight back) 💣 High-Stakes Play: Perfect pullback to steal pips 👮♂️ Cop Trap: Where bulls get liquidated 🔪 ENTRY RULES: "Vault Breach Confirmed!" - Strike at pullback to nearest swing high/low (15-30min TF) Sell Limit Orders for optimal risk/reward Aggressive? Enter at market but watch gold correlation 📌 SET ALERTS! Don't miss the rejection 🚨 STOP LOSS (Escape Plan): Thief SL at 36.400 (Key swing level) ⚠️ Warning: "Ignore this SL? Enjoy donating to bulls." 🎯 TARGETS: Main Take-Profit: 34.500 Scalpers: Ride the NY session momentum 🔍 WHY THIS HEIST WORKS ✅ Industrial demand slowing ✅ Dollar strength crushing metals ✅ ETF outflows accelerating ✅ Technical rejection at key level 🚨 RISK WARNING Avoid FOMC/NFP periods (Silver loves volatility) Trailing stops = your escape plan 💎 BOOST THIS HEIST! 👍 Smash Like to fund our next raid! 🔁 Share to build our thief army! 🤑 See you at 34.500, bandits! ⚖️ DISCLAIMER: Hypothetical scenario. Trade at your own risk. #XAGUSD #SilverTrading #Commodities #ThiefTrading 💬 COMMENT: "Short already - or waiting for better entry?"* 👇🔥
VELOCITY:SILVERShort
by The-Thief
Silver is in the Bearish trend after testing ResistanceHello Traders In This Chart XAGUSD HOURLY Forex Forecast By FOREX PLANET today XAGUSD analysis 👆 🟢This Chart includes_ (XAGUSD market update) 🟢What is The Next Opportunity on XAGUSD Market 🟢how to Enter to the Valid Entry With Assurance Profit This CHART is For Trader's that Want to Improve Their Technical Analysis Skills and Their Trading By Understanding How To Analyze The Market Using Multiple Timeframes and Understanding The Bigger Picture on the Charts
TVC:SILVERShort
by ForexMasters2000
Silver Price Retreats from 2012 HighsSilver Price Retreats from 2012 Highs As shown on the XAG/USD chart, the price of silver climbed above $37 per ounce yesterday — a level not seen since 2012. However, this morning, the price has dropped by approximately 2.5% from yesterday’s peak. The bullish driver behind the rally has been fears that the US could become involved in a military conflict between Israel and Iran. Concerns in financial markets intensified after media reports stated that US officials are preparing for a potential strike on Iran. Another factor influencing silver's price was the Federal Reserve’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged and maintain a cautious policy stance. Yesterday, Jerome Powell warned that President Trump’s tariffs could fuel inflation (a bullish signal for silver) and complicate the economic outlook. Technical Analysis of the XAG/USD Chart In our previous analysis of the XAG/USD chart, we identified an upward channel. This channel remains relevant, though its configuration has shifted. The price of silver remains in the upper part of the channel (a sign of strong demand). However, two signals suggest a potential correction may develop: → A bearish divergence on the RSI indicator; → A sharp decline from the channel’s upper boundary (marked with a red arrow), breaking through the local line that divides the upper half of the channel into quarters. Nevertheless, given the scale of geopolitical risks, there is a chance that the bears may struggle to significantly shift the trend — especially with markets nearing the weekend closure. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:XAGUSD
by FXOpen
2
Oil Extends Rally as Israel-Iran Conflict Stokes Supply FearsBrent jumps 5.5 %, bullion hits fresh records, but analysts still see $65 crude by Q4 if key shipping lanes stay open The crude-oil market loves nothing more than a geopolitical headline, and the one that flashed across terminals this past weekend was a whopper: escalating hostilities between Israel and Iran. Within minutes of the first wire stories, Brent crude vaulted 5.5 % to an intraday high of $76.02 a barrel—its largest single-session pop since Russia invaded Ukraine in early 2022—before giving back part of the gain to settle just under $76. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) traced a similar arc, peaking at $74.11 and closing fractionally lower. At the same time, investors stampeded into traditional havens. COMEX gold pierced $2,450 an ounce for the first time, while silver sprinted above $33—blowing past the decade-old high set during the meme-metal frenzy of 2021. The twin moves in energy and precious metals underscore how fragile risk sentiment has become even as global demand growth, OPEC discipline, and U.S. shale resilience point to a more balanced physical market later this year. Below we dissect the drivers of crude’s latest surge, explore the scenarios that could push prices back toward—or away from—the $65 handle by the fourth quarter, and explain why bullion refuses to loosen its grip on record territory. ________________________________________ 1. What Sparked the Spike? 1. Tit-for-tat escalation. Reports of Israel striking Iran-linked assets in Syria and Iran responding with drone attacks near the Golan Heights raised fears of a direct Israel-Iran confrontation—a worst-case scenario that could spill into the Strait of Hormuz and threaten 20 % of global seaborne oil. 2. Thin pre-holiday liquidity. Monday volume was 30 % below the 20-day average with several Asian markets closed, exaggerating price swings and triggering momentum-chasing algos. 3. Options market gamma squeeze. Dealers short upside calls scrambled to hedge as spot pierced $75, accelerating the melt-up. Open interest in $80 Brent calls expiring in June ballooned to 45,000 contracts—four times the 3-month norm. ________________________________________ 2. How Real Is the Supply Risk? While the headlines are chilling, physical flows remain intact for now: • Strait of Hormuz: No tankers have been impeded, insurance premia have widened only 25 ¢ per barrel—well below the $3 spike seen after the 2019 Abqaiq attack in Saudi Arabia. • Iraqi-Turkish Pipeline: Still shuttered for unrelated legal reasons; volumes have been offline since March 2023 and are therefore “priced in.” • Suez Canal / SUMED: Egyptian authorities report normal operations. In short, the rally is risk premia, not actual barrels lost. That distinction matters because premia tend to deflate quickly once tension plateaus, as the market witnessed in October 2023 after Hamas’s initial assault on Israel. ________________________________________ 3. Fundamentals Point to Softer Prices by Autumn Four forces could push Brent back into the $65–68 corridor by Q4 2025 if the geopolitical situation stabilizes: Force Current Status Q3–Q4 Outlook OPEC+ Spare Capacity ~5.5 mbpd, most in Saudi/UAE Ability to add 1–2 mbpd if prices spike U.S. Shale Growth 13.3 mbpd, record high +0.6 mbpd y/y, breakeven $47–55 Refinery Maintenance Peak spring turnarounds remove 1.5 mbpd demand Units restart by July, easing crude tightness Global Demand +1.2 mbpd y/y (IEA) Slows to +0.8 mbpd on OECD weakness Add seasonal gasoline demand ebbing after August, and the supply-demand balance tilts looser just as futures curves roll into Q1 2026 deliveries—a period typically beset by refinery slowdowns and holiday travel lulls. ________________________________________ 4. Scenario Analysis: Three Paths for Brent 1. Escalation (20 % probability) • Direct Israeli strike on Iranian territory → Tehran targets Hormuz traffic • 3 mbpd disrupted for one month • Brent overshoots to $100+, backwardation widens above $10 • Biden releases 90 mb from the SPR; OPEC signals emergency meeting 2. Containment (60 % probability) • Hostilities remain proxy-based in Syria/Lebanon; shipping unscathed • Risk premium bleeds off; Brent drifts to $70–72 by July • By Q4 oversupply emerges; prices test $65 3. Detente (20 % probability) • U.S.-mediated cease-fire; hostages exchanged • Iran de-escalates to focus on reviving JCPOA talks • Risk premium collapses; Brent revisits mid-$60s by August and low-$60s into winter ________________________________________ 5. Why Gold and Silver Are On Fire The precious-metals rally is less about oil and more about real yields and central-bank buying: • Real 10-year U.S. yield sits at 1.05 %, down from 1.55 % in February, boosting gold’s carry cost competitiveness. • PBoC & EM central banks added a net 23 tonnes in April—the 17th straight month of net purchases. • ETF inflows turned positive for the first time in nine months, adding 14 tonnes last week. Silver benefits from the same macro tailwinds plus industrial demand (solar panel capacity is growing 45 % y/y). A tight COMEX inventory cover ratio—registered stocks equal to just 1.4 months of offtake—amplifies price sensitivity. ________________________________________ 6. Cross-Asset Implications 1. Equities: Energy stocks (XLE) outperformed the S&P 500 by 3 % intraday but could retrace if crude fizzles. Miners (GDX, SILJ) may enjoy more durable momentum given new-high psychology. 2. FX: Petro-currencies CAD and NOK rallied 0.4 % vs. USD; safe-haven CHF gained 0.3 %. JPY failed to catch a bid, reflecting carry-trade dominance. 3. Rates: U.S. 2-year yields slipped 6 bp as Fed cut odds edged up on stagflation fears, but the move lacked conviction. ________________________________________ 7. What Could Invalidate the Bearish Q4 Call? • OPEC+ Discipline Frays: If Saudi Arabia tires of single-handedly absorbing cuts and opens the taps, prices could undershoot $60—but Riyadh’s fiscal breakeven (~$82) makes this unlikely. • U.S. Election Politics: A new White House may re-impose harsher sanctions on Iran or ease drilling restrictions, tilting balances either way. • Extreme Weather: An intense Atlantic hurricane season could knock Gulf of Mexico output offline, squeezing physical supply just as refineries demand more feedstock. ________________________________________ 8. Trading and Hedging Playbook Asset Bias Vehicles Key Levels Brent Crude Fade rallies toward $80; target $68 by Oct ICE futures, Jul $70 puts Resistance $78.80 / Support $71.30 WTI Similar to Brent NYMEX CL, calendar-spread (long Dec 24, short Dec 25) Resistance $75.20 Gold Buy dips if real yields fall below 0.9 % Futures, GLD ETF, 25-delta call spreads Support $2,390 Silver Momentum long until $35; tighten stops Futures, SLV ETF, 2-month $34 calls Resistance $36.20 Energy Equities Pair trade: long refiners vs. short E&Ps ETFs: CRAK vs. XOP Watch crack spreads Risk managers should recall that correlation spikes under stress: a portfolio long gold and short crude looks diversified—until a Middle-East cease-fire nukes both legs. ________________________________________ 9. Macro Backdrop: Demand Still Fragile Even before the flare-up, oil demand forecasts were slipping: • OECD: Eurozone PMIs languish below 50; German diesel demand –7 % y/y. • China: Q2 refinery runs flatlining; teapot margins < $2/bbl. • India: Bright spot with gasoline demand +9 %, but monsoon season will clip growth. On the supply side, non-OPEC production is rising 1.8 mbpd this year, led by Brazil’s pre-salt, Guyana’s Stabroek block, and U.S. Permian efficiency gains. Unless Middle-East barrels exit the market, the call on OPEC crude will shrink from 28 mbpd in Q2 to 26.7 mbpd in Q4, forcing the cartel to decide between market share and price. ________________________________________ 10. Historical Perspective: Geopolitical Risk Premiums Fade Fast Event Initial Brent Jump Days to Round-Trip Barrels Lost? 2019 Abqaiq Attack +15 % 38 < 0.2 mbpd for 30 days 2020 U.S.–Iran (Soleimani) +5 % 10 None 2022 Russia-Ukraine +35 % Still elevated > 1 mbpd rerouted Based on precedent, a 5–7 % surge without real supply disruption typically unwinds within six weeks. ________________________________________ 11. Outlook Summary • Base Case: Containment; Brent averages $70–72 through summer, melts to $65–68 Q4. Gold consolidates above $2,350; silver churns $30–34. • Bull Case (Oil): Hormuz threatened; Brent $100+, gas prices soar, Fed forced to juggle inflation vs. growth. • Bear Case (Oil): Cease-fire + soft demand; Brent breaks $60, OPEC+ grapples with fresh round of cuts. • ________________________________________ 12. Conclusion The Israel-Iran flashpoint has injected a fresh geopolitical premium into oil and turbo-charged safe-haven metals, but history suggests emotion-driven rallies fade quickly when physical barrels keep flowing. Unless missiles land near Hormuz or an errant drone strikes a Saudi export terminal, the structural forces of rising non-OPEC supply and cooling demand should reassert themselves, dragging Brent back toward the mid-$60s by year-end. For traders, that means respecting the tape today but planning for mean reversion tomorrow—selling gamma-rich call structures in crude, rolling stop-losses higher on bullion longs, and watching like hawks for any hint that shipping lanes are no longer merely a headline risk but a tangible bottleneck. Until that line is crossed, the smart money will treat each price spike not as the dawn of $100 crude, but as an opportunity to hedge, fade, and position for a calmer, cheaper barrel in the months ahead.
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by bryandowningqln
Silver & Gold Surge: SLV Inflows & GLD TargetsThe precious metals market is currently experiencing a significant surge, with both silver and gold capturing the attention of investors worldwide. This rally is underpinned by a confluence of factors, ranging from robust investment inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) to evolving macroeconomic landscapes and persistent geopolitical uncertainties. The iShares Silver Trust (SLV) ETF has witnessed an unprecedented influx of capital, signaling a strong bullish sentiment for the white metal, while gold, represented by the GLD, is poised for a potential rebound, with analysts eyeing key price levels. Understanding the intricate dynamics driving these movements is crucial for anyone looking to navigate the contemporary financial markets. SLV ETF Inflows Surge: Silver's Accelerated Rally The iShares Silver Trust (SLV), the world's largest silver-backed exchange-traded fund, has recently recorded its most substantial inflows in years, marking a pivotal moment for the silver market. Last week alone, the SLV ETF saw weekly inflows surge by $451 million, a dramatic increase from previous weeks, pushing its year-to-date inflows to over $458 million and its total assets under management to more than $17 billion. This remarkable accumulation of capital into SLV signifies a profound shift in investor sentiment, reflecting a strong conviction that silver prices are set for continued appreciation. When investors pour money into an ETF like SLV, it directly translates into the fund acquiring more physical silver, thereby tightening supply and exerting upward pressure on prices. This massive inflow is not merely speculative; it indicates a broad-based belief among both institutional and retail investors in silver's potential. Several key factors are fueling this accelerated rally in silver prices. One significant driver is the record-breaking surge in gold prices. Historically, silver has often been referred to as "poor man's gold" due to its similar safe-haven properties but lower price point. When gold experiences a substantial rally, silver often follows suit, as investors look for a more affordable alternative within the precious metals complex. Gold's recent ascent to nearly $3,500 per ounce has undoubtedly created a halo effect for silver, drawing in capital from those seeking exposure to precious metals without the higher entry cost of gold. Another compelling reason for silver's outperformance is its perceived undervaluation relative to gold. The gold/silver ratio, which measures how many ounces of silver are needed to buy one ounce of gold, had peaked at around 106 when gold was surging. However, this ratio has since dropped significantly to around 92, indicating that silver has begun to catch up, suggesting it was previously undervalued. This rebalancing of the ratio has encouraged investors to shift their focus towards silver, anticipating further narrowing of the gap. Beyond its role as a monetary metal and safe haven, industrial demand plays a uniquely critical role in silver's price dynamics, distinguishing it from gold. Silver is an indispensable component in numerous high-tech and green energy applications due to its exceptional electrical conductivity, thermal properties, and reflectivity. The renewable energy sector, particularly photovoltaic (PV) solar panels, consumes substantial amounts of silver, with each panel containing approximately 20 grams of the metal. The global push towards decarbonization and the increasing adoption of solar energy are creating an insatiable demand for silver. Additionally, its use in electric vehicles (EVs), electronics manufacturing, 5G technology, and medical devices further bolsters its industrial consumption. Reports indicate that global silver demand reached 1.2 billion ounces in 2024, driven by these industrial applications, with a significant supply deficit projected to continue. This robust and growing industrial demand provides a strong fundamental floor for silver prices, making it less susceptible to purely speculative swings. Geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties also contribute to silver's appeal as a safe-haven asset. In times of global instability, investors tend to flock to tangible assets like precious metals to preserve wealth. While gold typically garners more attention in such scenarios, silver also benefits from this flight to safety. The ongoing geopolitical developments and concerns about inflation continue to reinforce the attractiveness of both gold and silver as hedges against economic volatility and currency depreciation. From a technical analysis perspective, silver's rally appears robust. The iShares Silver Trust (SLV) has broken above significant resistance levels, such as $31.75, which had previously acted as a ceiling. The ETF is trading well above its 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), indicating a strong bullish trend. While the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved closer to overbought levels, the overall trend remains bullish, and the MACD indicator continues to signal upward momentum. Analysts suggest that if these technical indicators hold, silver could target the $40 mark in the near future. The breadth of participation from both institutional and retail investors, coupled with increasing trading volumes, suggests that this rally has stronger foundations than typical short-term spikes. Furthermore, expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve are also providing tailwinds for precious metals. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like silver and gold, making them more attractive to investors. The anticipation of such policy shifts often prompts investors to front-run these decisions, leading to increased demand for precious metals. GLD ETF Weekly Forecast: Gold's Rebound Potential While silver commands attention with its recent surge, gold, represented by the GLD remains the cornerstone of the precious metals market. Gold recently hit record highs, touching nearly $3,500 per ounce, before experiencing a slight retreat due to profit-taking and some strengthening of the US Dollar. However, analysts are now forecasting a potential rebound, with a target of $3430 on the cards for the current week, indicating that the bullish sentiment for gold remains largely intact. GLD is influenced by a diverse array of factors, making its price movements complex yet predictable to those who understand its drivers. One of the primary factors is gold's status as a safe-haven asset. During periods of economic uncertainty, political instability, or market volatility, investors traditionally turn to gold to preserve capital. Recent geopolitical tensions, such as the ongoing conflict in Eastern Europe, have consistently driven inflows into gold, as it acts as a hedge against global crises. The strength or weakness of the US Dollar plays a crucial role in gold's price. Gold is primarily priced in US Dollars, meaning that a weaker dollar makes gold comparatively cheaper for buyers holding other currencies, thereby increasing demand and pushing prices up. Conversely, a stronger dollar can make gold more expensive, potentially dampening demand. While there has been some recent dollar strength, the overall sentiment regarding the dollar's long-term trajectory and its inverse relationship with gold remains a key determinant. Interest rates and monetary policy, particularly from the US Federal Reserve, significantly impact gold prices. As a non-yielding asset, gold becomes less attractive when interest rates are high, as investors can earn better returns from interest-bearing assets. Conversely, lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, making it more appealing. The anticipation of future rate cuts by central banks often provides a strong impetus for gold rallies. Inflation and deflationary pressures also influence gold's appeal. Gold is widely regarded as a hedge against inflation. When the purchasing power of fiat currencies erodes due to rising inflation, investors often turn to gold to protect their wealth. Conversely, in deflationary environments, gold's appeal as a store of value can also increase. Recent inflation data, such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI), are closely watched for their potential impact on gold's trajectory. Central bank reserves and their purchasing trends are another significant, albeit often overlooked, factor. Central banks globally hold gold as a reserve asset to diversify their portfolios and safeguard against financial turmoil. Increased gold purchases by central banks signal a broader institutional confidence in gold and can significantly impact its demand and price. Supply and demand dynamics in the physical gold market, including mining production, recycling, and demand from jewelry and industrial sectors, also play a role. While new supply from mining is relatively small compared to the total existing stock, changes in production levels can still influence prices. Investment demand through ETFs and other financial products further contributes to the overall demand picture. From a technical standpoint, gold's recent retreat from its $3,500 peak has led to some profit-taking. However, key support levels are being tested, and analysts are looking for a rebound. The immediate resistance levels are around $3340-$3345, with a more significant hurdle at $3400. A decisive break above these levels, particularly $3400, could pave the way for a retest of the $3430 mark and potentially higher, towards $3500 and even $3600. The current bias for gold remains bullish, with buying opportunities identified at key pivot levels. The market is closely watching economic reports, such as the upcoming CPI data, as well as geopolitical developments, which could act as catalysts for gold's next major move. The Interplay Between Gold and Silver The intertwined fortunes of gold and silver are a recurring theme in the precious metals market. While both are considered safe-haven assets, their individual characteristics lead to nuanced differences in their price drivers. Gold is predominantly viewed as a monetary asset and a store of value, making it highly sensitive to macroeconomic indicators, interest rates, and geopolitical stability. Silver, while sharing these attributes, also benefits significantly from its extensive industrial applications. This dual nature often makes silver more volatile than gold, as it reacts to both investment demand and industrial cycles. The recent outperformance of silver, as evidenced by the massive SLV ETF inflows, suggests a market correction where silver is catching up to gold's earlier gains. The narrowing gold-silver ratio indicates that investors believe silver was undervalued and is now reasserting its true worth. This dynamic creates a powerful feedback loop: as gold rallies, it draws attention to the precious metals sector, prompting investors to look for relative value, which often leads them to silver. As silver then accelerates, it further validates the strength of the broader precious metals market. The current environment, characterized by persistent inflation concerns, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and the global push towards green energy technologies, provides a fertile ground for both gold and silver. Gold offers a traditional hedge against uncertainty, while silver provides exposure to both safe-haven demand and the booming industrial sector. The significant institutional inflows into SLV underscore a growing recognition of silver's unique position at the intersection of finance and industry. In conclusion, the precious metals market is currently in a robust uptrend, driven by a powerful combination of investment demand, safe-haven appeal, and fundamental industrial growth. The unprecedented inflows into the SLV ETF signal a strong bullish outlook for silver, fueled by its undervaluation relative to gold and its critical role in emerging green technologies. Concurrently, gold, despite recent fluctuations, maintains a strong bullish bias, with analysts forecasting a rebound to key price levels, supported by its enduring safe-haven status and macroeconomic tailwinds. For investors, understanding these intertwined dynamics and monitoring key economic and geopolitical developments will be paramount in capitalizing on the ongoing rally in both gold and silver. The message is clear: the precious metals are shining bright, and their current momentum suggests further upside potential.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by bryandowningqln