Technical Analysis for XAUUSD (Gold) Closing Price: $3335.94 (16th Aug 2025, 2:05 AM UTC+4)
Analysis Methods: Japanese Candlesticks, Harmonic Patterns (ABCD, M/W), Elliott Wave, Wyckoff, Gann Theory (Time/Square of 9/Angles), Ichimoku, RSI, Bollinger Bands, VWAP, Moving Averages (MA/EMA/SMA/WMA).
1. Long-Term Trend (Weekly/Monthly)
Elliott Wave:
Gold is likely in Wave 5 of a broader bull cycle (Wave 3 peak at $3200, Wave 4 dip to $2950).
Target: $3450–$3500 if Wave 5 extends.
Gann Price Forecasting:
Square of 9:
√3335.94 ≈ 57.76 → Key resistance at 58² = $3364, support at 57² = $3249.
Break above $3364 opens path to $3400 (psychological level).
Ichimoku (Weekly):
Tenkan/Kijun: Bullish crossover (Tenkan > Kijun).
Cloud: Price above Senkou Span (bullish).
Moving Averages:
Weekly EMA(50): $3200 (strong support).
Swing Outlook: Bullish. Hold longs with trailing stops. Target $3450–$3500.
2. Medium-Term Swing (4H/Daily)
Harmonic Patterns:
ABCD Bearish pattern forming on 4H:
A: $3300 → B: $3350 → C: $3325 → D: $3360–$3370 (potential reversal zone).
Bullish Gartley (M Pattern) on daily chart near $3300 support.
Wyckoff Phase:
Distribution signs above $3330:
Upthrust (false breakout) at $3340 (16th Aug).
Volume fading near highs.
Gann Time Forecasting:
Aug 20–22 (geometric time window) for potential trend reversal.
RSI + Bollinger Bands (Daily):
RSI(14): 68 (approaching overbought).
Price hugging upper BB(20,2), suggesting consolidation.
Swing Trade Setup:
Short near $3360–$3370 (ABCD target) with stop-loss at $3385.
Long near $3300 (Gartley support) with stop-loss at $3280.
3. Intraday Outlook (5M–1H)
Key Levels:
Resistance: $3345 (Gann 1x1 angle), $3360 (Square of 9).
Support: $3320 (VWAP), $3300 (psychological).
Indicators:
Ichimoku (1H):
Tenkan: $3330, Kijun: $3320 → Price above both (short-term bullish).
Cloud: Thin and bullish (no major barriers until $3340).
RSI + Bollinger Bands (1H):
RSI(14): 62 (neutral).
Price testing mid-BB ($3330) → Break below signals pullback.
VWAP + MAs:
VWAP: $3325 (intraday support).
EMA(20): $3332 (dynamic support).
Candlestick Patterns:
16th Aug 4H Candle: Shooting star at $3340 → Bearish reversal signal.
1H Chart: Bearish engulfing below $3335.
Gann Squaring of Price-Time:
Time Cycle: 10:00–11:00 AM UTC+4 (volatility spike).
Price Harmony: $3335 = pivot → Close below $3330 targets $3315.
Intraday Trade Plan:
Sell below $3330 (target $3320 → $3310).
Buy above $3340 (target $3350) if RSI <70.
Stop-Loss: $15–$20 from entry.
Critical Events Ahead:
Gann Reversal Window: Aug 20–22 (watch for profit-taking).
Daily Close above $3350 invalidates bearish ABCD pattern.
Risk Note: Monitor USD strength and Fed policy hints. Use tight stops intraday.
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