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AUD/USD – Last Push Before September Weakness?1. Retail Sentiment 77% of retail traders are currently short on AUD/USD, with an average entry around 0.6459. Historically, when retail positioning is heavily skewed to one side, the market often moves in the opposite direction. This suggests short-term upside potential (contrarian perspective). 2. COT Report (AUD & USD Index) AUD (CME): Non-Commercials remain heavily short (129k vs 28k long), keeping speculative positioning bearish on AUD. However, Commercials significantly increased their long exposure (+10,892), indicating institutional accumulation. USD Index (ICE): Non-Commercials hold 19k shorts vs 13k longs, showing a bearish tilt on USD, with additional shorts added (+1,916). Commercials remain net long (12k vs 6k short), defending dollar strength. ➡️ COT Takeaway: Speculators remain bearish on AUD and moderately bearish on USD. This divergence suggests potential sideways movement or consolidation in the short term. 3. Seasonality (September) Historically, September has been a weak month for AUD/USD, with negative performance across the past 5–15 years. Seasonal curves confirm a bearish bias, especially in the first half of the month. 4. Technical Analysis Supply Zone: Approaching strong weekly/monthly supply at 0.6600–0.6650. RSI: Rising toward overbought, pointing to possible exhaustion of bullish momentum. Structure: Price may complete a test of 0.6600–0.6650 before retracing back to demand zones at 0.6450 and 0.6400. Trend Dynamics: The medium-term trend remains bearish, with corrective rallies providing opportunities to short. Operational Outlook Short-term Bias (1–2 weeks): Potential final push toward 0.6600–0.6650, driven by contrarian sentiment and COT divergence. Medium-term Bias (September): Expected weakness with downside targets at 0.6450 → 0.6400, aligned with seasonality and speculative positioning. Strategy: Look for short reversal setups around 0.6600–0.6650 with H4/H1 confirmation (structure break or engulfing pattern). Stop above 0.6700, targets at 0.6450 / 0.6400.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
GOLD Expecting Local Correction! Sell! Hello,Traders! GOLD has almost reached A massive horizontal Resistance of 3500$ which Is also an ATH level and Gold Is locally oversold so despite Our long-term bullish bias A correction from the Resistance is likely Sell! Comment and subscribe to help us grow! Check out other forecasts below too! Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:XAUUSDShort
by TopTradingSignals
1
XRP 1D: a correction that feels like an endless coffee breakXRP keeps testing investors’ patience trading in the 2.65–2.80 zone right at the 0.5 Fibonacci level. The correction from the historical impulse has hit exactly 50 percent and the market looks like it’s simply pausing before another run. If buyers hold the line the way up opens first to 3.06 and 3.23 with 3.67 in sight. A breakdown would target 2.39 and 2.09 at the 0.382 and 0.236 retracements. Moving averages are consolidating, RSI is far from overbought leaving plenty of room for a new impulse. On the fundamental side XRP still gets support from institutional interest in blockchain solutions for cross-border payments while legal risks with the SEC fade into the background. The market is simply waiting for a catalyst and any positive headline can quickly push the price into a fresh rally because the technical base for growth is already set.
Long
by InvestWorld_777
SILVER Will Keep Growing! Buy! Hello,Traders! SILVER is trading in an Uptrend and the price Made a bullish breakout Of the key horizontal Level of 39.53$ and the Breakout is confirmed so We are bullish biased And we will be expecting A further bullish continuation Buy! Comment and subscribe to help us grow! Check out other forecasts below too! Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:XAGUSDLong
by TopTradingSignals
1