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SMC-ICT

REAL VS FAKE CHOCK🔹 1. Real Choke vs Fake Choke A **Choke** in ICT/SMC language usually refers to a **block of price action where liquidity is absorbed** and either the trend reverses or continues strongly. It is connected to the idea of **Order Blocks, IDM (Imbalance-Demand-Mitigations)** and **Liquidity Absorption**. ### ✅ Real Choke * Happens when **genuine liquidity is absorbed** by institutions (big players). * Price reacts to the choke level → gives a **clear displacement** in opposite direction. * Characteristics: * Strong rejection (impulsive move away). * Volume & imbalance support the move. * Leaves behind a valid **IDM / FVG / Order Block**. * Usually aligns with **higher timeframe POI** (HTF OB, FVG, BPR). 👉 **Effect**: Becomes the base for a **true reversal or strong continuation**. --- ### ❌ Fake Choke * Happens when price **pretends to absorb liquidity** but it’s just a **stop hunt / inducement**. * Market sweeps liquidity near choke level → then continues in original direction. * Characteristics: * Small/weak rejection, no real displacement. * No proper imbalance or absorption. * Often formed just to **trap retail traders** thinking reversal is coming. * Seen in **mid-range / liquidity inducement zones**, not at HTF POI. 👉 **Effect**: Leads to **continuation in same direction** after trapping liquidity. --- ## 🔹 2. Why IDM (Imbalance Demand Mitigation) is Important **IDM** is the footprint of institutions when they: * Absorb liquidity, * Create imbalance, and * Mitigate their positions later. It’s important because: 1. **Shows Institutional Interest** → IDM confirms that Smart Money actually participated. 2. **Validates Choke** → If choke has IDM inside it → higher chance it’s **real**. 3. **Gives Entry Points** → IDM zones often become mitigation levels (precise entries with low risk). 4. **Separates Fake vs Real** → Fake chokes usually have no IDM footprint. --- ## 🔹 3. Role of IDM in Reversal & Liquidity Absorption When market is reversing: * First, **retail liquidity is collected** (fake choke). * Then, institutions place **real choke + IDM** to absorb liquidity. * The IDM ensures that: * All **supply/demand imbalance** is cleared, * Institutions get filled, * Price is ready for a **clean reversal**. 👉 **In Short:** * **Fake choke** = liquidity grab. * **Real choke + IDM** = liquidity absorption + reversal base. --- ⚡So, the easiest filter is: * If a choke has **IDM (clear imbalance & mitigation footprint)** → it’s **real**. * If not → it’s just a **fake liquidity sweep**.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by amanagrawalofficial
Gold Weekly Outlook ( FOMC Week )Hello traders, Another week and most importantly its FOMC week 🔸 Weekly Outlook (HTF Bias) Trend: Bullish, but stretched into ATH zone. Supply Zones: 3670–3720 (ATH pocket – decision zone) 3770–3800 (extension confluence) 3850–3920 (untouched liquidity cluster) Demand Zones / Imbalance: 3590–3450 → main corrective magnet (contains EMA50) 3340–3290 → first strong HTF demand 3180–3120 & 3050–2980 → deeper extreme discount demand Confluence: EMA stack bullishly locked, but extended RSI weekly overbought → exhaustion risk Liquidity pools: above 3674 ATH and below imbalance 3450 Fibonacci: 1.272/1.618 extensions (3750/3880) align with supply above Scenarios: Bullish Expansion: Clean breakout above 3670–3720 → targets 3770 → 3850+ Bearish Correction: Rejection from ATH → pullback into 3590–3450 imbalance. A deeper rebalance could test 3340 or lower demand if macro turns hawkish. 🔸 H4 Structure & Trend Trend: Still bullish (HH–HL), but slowing momentum inside supply. Active Supply Zones: 3640–3666 → current battlefield (price inside) 3692–3720 → inducement + 1.272 Fib trap zone 3745–3785 → 1.618–2.0 Fib, expansion exhaustion supply Demand Zones: 3600–3580 → first pullback demand 3544–3520 → EMA50 confluence, BOS origin 3500–3470 → last valid H4 demand before sentiment shift Confluence: EMAs locked bullish, but flattening RSI cooling off → momentum compression Equal highs below 3666 → inducement Imbalances on both sides = liquidity-driven moves ahead Scenarios: Bullish: Hold above 3600–3580 → breakout above 3666 confirms push toward 3720/3785. Bearish: Rejection at 3640–3666 or EQH sweep → pullback into 3580/3544, possibly 3500. 🔸 H1 Refined Levels Premium Sell Zones: 3640–3654 → short-term liquidity wall (first seller defense) 3670–3678 → ATH trap zone (inducement risk) 3704–3720 → exhaustion zone (final upside trap) Discount Buy Zones: 3595–3580 → first reaction base 3550–3535 → mid-range accumulation shelf 3505–3490 → deep liquidity reload zone (best RR swing entry) Decision Zone: 3630–3608 → momentum pivot Above 3630 → bulls in control Below 3608 → opens reentry demand zones 🎯 Battle Plan Bullish Play: Look for rejections from 3595 / 3550 / 3505 with confirmation (M15 BOS or engulfing). Above 3630 → push toward 3654 → 3674 → 3720. Break and hold above 3674 → continuation toward 3770+. Bearish Play: Tactical shorts at 3654, 3678, 3720 with M15/M30 confirmation. Targets: 3608 → 3580 → 3550. Loss of 3490 = HTF correction mode unlocked. ✅ Overall Bias: Still bullish on HTF, but extended. Market is at a make-or-break zone (3640–3674). ⚠️ Risk: RSI overbought + inducement structure = high probability of a liquidity sweep before the real move. 📌 Key Catalyst: FOMC will likely decide whether ATH breaks cleanly or if a corrective flush into imbalance (3450–3590) happens first
TVC:GOLD
by FX_Scrubbs
This Aussie Tech Gem Is Screaming BUY – If This Zone Holds!SDR (SiteMinder) is showing massive potential both technically and fundamentally: - Trading 75.4% below fair value - Forecasted to grow 65.36% YoY - Earnings up 28.2% p.a. over the last 5 years - Analysts expect 91%+ upside On the chart, we’re sitting right on a high-probability monthly FVG + OB zone. If respected, we could see a strong rally back toward the $6.90–$7.78 buyside liquidity levels and beyond. Key Levels to Watch: 📍 FVG support: ~$3.50 📈 Targets: $6.90 – $7.78 🧠 Confirmation needed via strong candle closes 🔥 Could be a high-reward play — but as always, DYOR!
ASX:SDRLong
by INSIDER_INTEL
2
DXY | 1SPT directional sentiment (SMC)“DXY moving like it just clocked in for a Monday shift 🥱📉… got smacked with that Friday LQC and now stumbling down to 97.100 like it’s chasing a Black Friday discount 🛒. Daily bias still bearish, 4H looking weak, and on the 1H the bulls tryna flex but only after sweeping some liquidity 🐂➡️🚪. If price taps back into that chef’s POI kitchen 🍳 and fails to hold, the bears finna drag this straight to the basement 📉🐻. Until then, we vibin’ in discount land waiting for confirmation signals. This POI remains the make-or-break zone 🧩 heading into the next sessions.”**
TVC:DXYShort
by sam_trades_smc
XAUUSD 30M – Intraday Plan Around the RangePrice is holding between $3,417.84 (resistance) and $3,403.41 (support). We’re trading around $3,410–$3,411 inside a tight box. Scalps can work, but reversals are quick. 🔼 Bullish Plan (needs confirmation) Trigger: A clean 30min body close above $3,417.84 (not just a wick). Targets: $3,419.55 → $3,420.54 → $3,422.10. Management: Take partials at $3,419.55, move SL to breakeven once $3,418 holds on a retest. 🔽 Bearish Plan (cleaner below support) Trigger: 30min body close below $3,403.41. Targets: $3,401.29 → $3,398.36 (trail if sellers stay in control). Management: Scale partials at $3,401.29, protect the rest at breakeven. 🔄 Range Scalp (higher risk, small size) Shorts: $3,416–$3,417 on a clear rejection → aim $3,410–$3,412, SL above rejection high / $3,420. Longs: $3,403–$3,404 on a strong rejection wick → aim mid-range, SL below $3,401. ✅ Break Confirmation Strong 30min close through the level. ❌ Invalidation Breakout closes back inside the box on the next candle (trap). Multiple wick with no momentum. 📌 Bottom Line Above $3,417.84 → bullish bias to $3,420.54 and $3,422.10. Below $3,403.41 → bearish bias to $3,401.29 and $3,398.36. Inside the box = scalp only, keep risk tight.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by fxt8
XAUUSD Outlook Monthly / Weekly ( 1st -5th Sept )Hello Traders, Welcome to a fresh month and a brand-new week! Once again, last week’s plan unfolded just as we mapped it out — I trust many of you managed to catch those green (or blue, whichever you prefer) prints. Now as we roll into September, gold sits at a pivotal supply zone. The 3500 liquidity magnet is pulling price, but the stretched EMAs warn of a possible retracement. Key levels are clear: bulls must defend 3400–3360, or else we risk a revisit toward the 3250–3120 liquidity pocket. My bias remains bullish while 3400 holds. Gold is testing supply, and a sweep of the 3500 liquidity magnet looks probable. A bearish shift only comes if 3360 breaks. And don’t forget — NFP Friday is the major decision point this week. Let’s dive into the setups and see how we can position for another profitable month and week ahead. ✨ 🔑 High-Level Summary Macro Trend: Still bullish, but price is pressing into premium supply zones (3460–3500). Bias: Bullish above 3400; bearish shift only if 3360 (H4 cluster) breaks. Main Magnet: 3500 liquidity pool + Fibo expansions at 3520–3530 and 3600–3620. Risk: Extremely stretched above EMAs → a corrective wick/pullback likely in September. 🟡 Monthly View Supply: 3460–3500 (premium, untested). Demand: 2800–2850 (macro HL + EMA21 confluence). Liquidity Wick: 3250–3120 (likely sweep/re-accumulation, not clean OB). Progression Map: Bullish → Break & hold 3460–3500 → 3550–3600, then 3700–3720. Bearish → Rejection at 3460–3500 → pullback 3320 → possibly sweep 3250–3120. Bias: Bullish above 3300; bearish shift only on monthly close <3120. 🔵 Weekly View Supply: 3460–3500 (key liquidity). Demand: 3360–3340 (shallow, first cushion). 3280–3250 (EMA21 ~3222, strong accumulation). Progression Map: Bullish → Break above 3500 → 3550–3575 → 3600–3620. Bearish → Rejection → correction 3340 → 3250. Bias: Bullish above 3340, neutral in 3460–3340 range, bearish below 3250. 🔴 Daily View Supply: 3460–3480. Decision Zone: 3400–3380 (EMA21). Demand: 3340–3320 (EMA100 confluence). Liquidity Zone: 3260–3240. Bias: Bullish while >3400. Neutral 3480–3400. Bearish only if <3320. 🟠 H4 View Supply: 3450–3470 (wick rejection). Liquidity Magnet: 3485–3500. Demand Zones: 3420–3400 (Decision Demand, EMA21). 3380–3360 (stacked EMA cluster 50/100/200). Fibo Targets: 3520–3530, 3600–3620. Bias: Bullish >3400, neutral 3470–3400, bearish <3360. 🟢 H1 Intraday View Supply: 3495–3475 (major rejection zone). Liquidity Magnet: 3500 (ATH cluster). Demand Ladders: 3435–3425 → 3415–3405 → 3395–3380 → 3375–3360. Bias: Bullish above 3435–3425. Bearish only under 3395–3380. 🎯 Bottom Line (September Setup) Upside path: Break 3460–3500 → sweep ATH 3500 → 3520–3530 → 3600+. Downside path: Rejection at 3460–3500 → correction 3400 → 3360. Big liquidity re-accumulation: 3250–3120 (if deeper pullback). Catalyst: NFP (Sept 5) likely decides whether Gold expands higher or retraces. 📌 Educational only, not financial advice
TVC:GOLDLong
by FX_Scrubbs
XAUUSD (GOLD) 30M – Intraday PlanPrice is trading between $3,387.70 (resistance) and $3,367.84 (support). Currently sitting mid-range around $3,377, with both sides still open. 🔼 Bullish Plan Trigger: 30m body close above $3,387.70. Targets: First push into $3,389.59, then $3,391.19. Momentum extension possible into $3,392+. Management: Partial profits at first target, move SL to breakeven once $3,387 is defended. 🔽 Bearish Plan Trigger: Clean 30m close below $3,367.84. Targets: First into $3,365.16, then $3,362.88, with extension risk toward $3,361.28. Management: Scale at each level, trail stops if downside expands. ⚡ Range Scalp (riskier) Shorts: Rejection at $3,387–$3,388, targeting $3,377–$3,378, SL above rejection. Longs: Bounces from $3,368 zone, targeting $3,376–$3,377, SL below wick lows. Use smaller size — chop can reverse fast. ✅ Confirmation for Break Strong 30m body close through key level. Momentum follow through after breakout. ❌ Invalidation Breakout closes back inside the range (fakeout). Multiple wicks through level with no follow through. 📌 Bottom Line: Waiting for a decisive 30m close outside $3,367.84–$3,387.70. Upside focus above $3,387.70 into $3,391.19. Downside focus below $3,367.84 toward $3,362.88–$3,361.28.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by fxt8
Bitcoin Daily Analysis – The Trend Is Our FriendGood morning, Guys, I’ve prepared a fresh Bitcoin analysis for you. 🔹 First off, I stand firmly behind my long-term targets of **127,000 – 137,000 – 146,000**. I previously shared these levels with you in a weekly analysis. 🔍 Now let’s shift to the 1-day chart: What is Bitcoin telling us right now? 📉 If the **112,000 level breaks downward**, we could enter a correction phase toward **102,000** or even **99,500**. I expect strong buying interest to return from those zones. 📈 After that, we’re facing a key resistance structure between **123,000 – 120,000**. But I believe this zone will also be broken—because we’re in an **uptrend**, and… 💬 **The trend is our friend. Never forget that.**
CAPITALCOM:BTCUSDLong
by TraderTilki
96