Swissie rally fizzles, SNB's Jordan up nextUSD/CHF has rebounded on Tuesday, ending a rally that saw the Swiss franc climb over 1%. In the European session, USD/CHF is trading at 0.9344, up 0.40%.
Switzerland released the February inflation report on Monday and the reading was higher than expected. CPI rose 0.7% m/m, up from 0.6% in February and above the 0.4% forecast. On an annualized basis, CPI climbed 3.4%, edging up from 3.3% and higher than the forecast of 3.1%.
These inflation numbers would be a dream come true for most major central banks, which are struggling with inflation levels two or three times higher. Still, the Swiss National Bank is concerned about high inflation, as its target is 0-2%. The SNB was widely expected to raise rate by 50 basis points at the rate meeting on March 23 and the uptick in February inflation cements the likelihood of such a move. Swiss National Bank Chair Jordan will make an appearance later today and is likely to address the rise in inflation.
The SNB does not provide forward guidance for its rate policy, but the central bank has projected an inflation rate of 2.4% for 2023. With the cash rate currently at 1%, it's a safe bet that we'll see another hike in June of either 25 or 50 basis points. The continuing tightening should provide a boost to the Swiss franc, but traders should keep in mind that the SNB has not hesitated to intervene in the foreign exchange market when the Swiss franc became too strong for its liking.
In the US, Federal Reserve Chair Powell will be in the spotlight as he testifies before a Senate committee later today. The Fed has remained hawkish and after a host of strong January releases, the markets have shifted their expectations closer to the Fed's stance. It was only a few weeks ago that the markets were projecting a pause followed by rate cuts, but this has changed to pricing in three more rate hikes this year. There is a lot of uncertainty in the air about inflation and interest rates and the markets are hoping that Powell's comments will provide some clarity.
There is resistance at 0.9381 and 0.9420
0.9304 and 0.9224 are providing support
Snb
Selling Canadian Bacon.CADCHF broke the above trend line that market have been respecting for the last 2 years & 6 months. When a 2+ year trendline have been broken the market is trying to tell us something, if you look close enough you'll see market dropped 680 pips to break that trendline and is currently consolidating that move. When market decides to break the previous low made (0.71154), i see market dropping towards 0.68, a (-6.06%) decline from markets current position covering -438.6 pips. The CAD have been suffering due to falling oil prices and the CHF is benefiting as a safe haven & aggressive hikes from the SNB. Adjust STOPLOSS to suit your RISK plan.
GBPCHF:Good opportunity on Policy DivergenceSwitzerland National Bank officially announced the intervention in the FX market to stop the Swiss Franc depreciation, which confirms a regime change for the SNB. and their Hawkish monetary policy will strengthen the CHF and aim for a lower inflation, meanwhile the Bank of England hiked the rates slowly and with hesitations despite a very high inflation which should contribute to a strong CHF against GBP.
Technically we noticed a breakout of the Daily trend, we will look into selling the retrace of the breakout around the monthly zone of 1.129, with a SL above previous highs as in the swing trades the movements are more violent so a proper risk management should be considered.
Remember that whatever is your reasoning for the market and no matter how strong are the analysis there is always a probability of losing as trading is more of a probability field so make sure to always consider a good RR, risk small and aim higher.
Your questions are very welcome!
Swiss franc reverses slide after SNB hikeMajor central banks were in the spotlight this week, as the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank raised rates by 50 basis points at their final meeting of the year. These moves overshadowed a 50 bp rate increase by the Swiss National Bank, where rate moves are unusual - this week's rate increase, which brought the benchmark rate to 1.0%, was only the third hike this year.
The driver behind the rate hike was the all-familiar battle to curb inflation. Switzerland's inflation rate of 3% pales in comparison to the eurozone (10.0%) or the US (7.1%), but is above the SNB's target of 0-2%. The SNB has been aggressive, raising rates by 50 bp in June and an oversize 75-bp hike in September. After years of negative rates, the Bank has dramatically changed policy, responding to what it called a "challenging situation" in a press release after the meeting.
The SNB also reminded the markets that it was "willing to be active in the foreign exchange market as necessary". The Bank has not hesitated in the past to intervene in order to prevent the Swiss franc from climbing too high and damaging the export sector. USD/CHF has declined over 7% since November 1st, and the SNB will be watching to see if the Swiss franc's appreciation continues.
The markets are still digesting the Fed's hawkish stance at this week's meeting. Actually, anyone who has been listening to Jerome Powell and FOMC members would see that the Fed reiterated that it would continue to raise rates and that inflation remained far too high. The markets, however, have been marching to their own beat, expecting that a series of soft inflation reports might change the Fed's tune.
There was talk of the Fed winding up its current rate cycle in February, but the rate statement dampened such hopes, stating that the Fed expected ""ongoing increases" in interest rates." Powell dismissed the recent drop in inflation, saying more evidence was required that the downward trend was sustainable. It seems a given after this hawkish meeting that the terminal rate is likely to rise above 5%, with some forecasts projecting that rates will go as high as 5.6%.
USD/CHF is testing resistance at 0.9285. The next resistance line is at 0.9372
There is support at 0.9228 and 0.9144
USD/CHF holding support!Last week’s fall in the US Dollar after the October’s CPI was released has been quite rapid. Add in hawkish comments from the SNB’s Jordan, and it’s a recipe for USD/CHF to head lower. Indeed, the pair did move from a local high of 1.0147 down to 0.9398 in just three days.
Is it time for USD/CHF to bounce? Notice the RSI in the bottom panel of the chart. It is clearly in oversold territory and diverging from price. This is a signal that price may correct or even reverse soon.
Buyers will look to enter near 0.9400/0.9420 and place a stop under the August 11th low of 0.9371. Traders can use Fibonacci retracements from the recent high to the August 11th low to give a more conservative target. First target is 0.9667, which is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. The 50% retracement level and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level above there are at 0.9759 and 0.9851, respectively.
If price reaches each target, traders can use trailing stops to guard against losses.
USDCHF is going to breakoutUSD have been very strong this year. Nearly all currencies fall again USD
CHF have been strong since 2000, it's not time for upside break out
in 2012, because of the euro crisis, chf have been strong against EUR and so the SNB peg CHF with EUR at 1.2
in 2014, some how SNB is not able to peg CHF to EUR any more, so the peg is unlinked
so there is no chance that CHF to peg euro again
now: The Swiss National Bank (SNB) central bank of Swiss posted a first half loss of CHF 95.2 billion, the biggest loss since central bank's founding in1907
Goldman Sachs estimate Credit Suisse faces $8 billion capital shortfall in 2024,
compare to last week SNB sight deposits have fallen -19.6 billion
for the USDCHF is about time to change the course and CHF is going to weaker in the future.
TIME TO LONG
USDJPY the road to 150.00There is a shortage of US dollars. The Swiss National Bank has basically borrowed nearly $6.3 billion from the U.S. Federal Reserve's currency swap line facility, roughly double the amount drawn a week earlier, New York Fed data released on Thursday showed. This is the SNB having to provide liquidity for US-denominated debt holders in and around Europe and possibly global entities.
The yen is fundamentally broken as we have seen Japanese Gov. debt not trading for days at a time. But the government still continues to refinance itself. So I am expecting quite a surge on the USD, and a continued decline in the yen. Technically the US CPI yesterday cleared both the buy and sell stops. as the MM's gathered their orders together.
The SNB could surprise (again) with a larger than expected hikeThe SNB (Swiss National Bank) are expected to hike interest rates tomorrow, which would send their rate above zero for the first time since 2011.
The central bank entered ZIRP (zero interest rate policy) between 2011 – 2015 before switching to NIRP (negative interest rate policy) with a rate of -0.75%, where it remained until June this year. And with seemingly few paying attention, they not only hiked rates but came out swinging with a 50bp hike and sent shockwaves across currency markets. This quickly saw the yen strengthen as traders assumed the BOJ would be next to follow, but we’re still waiting and will likely be for some time. But the main point I am making is that the SNB are likely to hike again tomorrow, and it would be wise to at least be prepared for a larger hike than some expect.
A 50, 75 or even 100bp hike could be on the table for the SNB
A recent poll saw economists up their 50bp hike for the SNB to 75bp. But in light of Sweden’s Riksbank hiking by 100bp, wholesale prices in Germany exploding higher and the potential for the Fed to hike by 100bp, I’m not discounting the potential for the SNB to join to 100bp club. Besides, they hiked by 50bp when the consensus was for no change at all and have a track record with an element of surprise. Furthermore, the Swiss government upgraded 2022 CPI from 2.5% to 3%, and for 2023 from 1.4% to 2.3% - so perhaps they know something we don’t.
CHF/JPY daily chart:
There are fewer finer examples of a strong bullish trend on a currency chart, than CHF/JPY right now. Momentum has been increasing during each impulse move higher, the moving averages are in ‘bullish sequence’ and fanning out, and prices are respecting the closest average as support.
Prices have been coiling up within a falling wedge pattern (bullish in an uptrend) and potentially printed its swing low this week at the 10-day EMA. Furthermore, a 3-day bullish reversal pattern called a morning star has formed, so the bias remains bullish above this week’s low and for a move to the 150.71 high. A break above which brings 154 into focus.
However, even if prices break low we would still keep an eye out for a potential swing low, given the diverging policies between the SNB and BOJ.
Yen falls back down after BoJ balksThe Japanese yen continues to post strong swings this week and is up sharply on Friday. USD/JPY is trading at 134.67 in Europe, up 1.86% on the day.
It's been a busy week, with the markets still digesting some dramatic moves by central banks. The Fed and SNB delivered massive salvos in their fight against inflation, and the BoE continues to tighten, albeit at a more modest pace. The week wrapped up with the Bank of Japan policy decision earlier in the day. These meetings are usually on the dull side, with the central bank merely reaffirming its ultra-loose policy, with the occasional tweak. Today's meeting was closely watched, however, as the BOJ's yield curve stance has been under pressure and there was speculation that the BoJ might retreat and release the cap of 0.25% on 10-year JGBs.
In the end, the BoJ did not blink or budge, maintaining its policy for yield curve control and QE. The BOJ reaffirmed it will continue its policy of rock-bottom rates, even though other major central banks are tightening policy, as we saw this week with the Fed, BOE and SNB. Governor Kuroda has insisted that monetary easing remain in place, given Japan's slow recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic. With inflation barely at 2%, the central bank's target, Kuroda can afford to continue his loose policy and tenaciously defend the BoJ's yield curve.
The BoJ didn't adjust policy today but it was noteworthy that the policy statement added the exchange rate to its list of risks, something we haven't seen in previous statements. The yen hit a 24-year low at 135.60 earlier this week and could fall even further. The Bank is sending a message that it is monitoring the exchange rate, but I question whether this will deter the markets from continuing to test the yen - previous jawboning from the BoJ and Ministry of Finance didn't succeed in stemming the yen's slide, and we could well be on our way to a 140 yen if the US/Japan rate differential continues to widen.
USD/JPY is testing resistance at 133.14. Above, there is resistance at 1.3585
There is support at 131.72
Swiss franc soars after SNB surprise hikeThe Swiss franc has posted massive gains today after the Swiss National Bank raised interest rates by 0.50%. In the North American session, USD/CHF is trading at 0.9653, down a massive 2.91% on the day.
It has been a week of central bank drama, which started with the Federal Reserve delivering a massive 0.75% rate hike. This was followed today by a Swiss shocker, as the SNB tightened the screws on monetary policy with its first rate increase since 2007, raising rates from -0.75% to -0.25%. The markets had become accustomed to the SNB's ultra-low rate of -0.75%, which had been in place since 2015.
Most major central banks, with the notable exception of the Bank of Japan, are in the midst of a rate-tightening cycle, as they attempt to wrestle down surging inflation. After the rate hike, SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan said that the SNB was concerned about rising inflation in Switzerland, which is heading towards 3%. The rate statement reflected Jordan's comments, saying that further hikes could be implemented in order to stabilize inflation.
The statement also reiterated that the SNB would be "willing to be active in the foreign exchange market as necessary." The SNB carefully monitors the exchange rate and has intervened in the past when it deemed the Swiss franc's value as too high, which is detrimental to Switzerland's export-reliant economy. The Swiss franc has been on a slide, falling 400 points and breaking above parity earlier this week. The SNB may have felt that this was a prudent time to deliver a significant rate hike, even though it would send the Swiss franc sharply higher.
There were no surprises from the Federal Reserve, which raised rates by 0.75%, to a target range of 1.50-1.75%. The Fed downgraded its US growth forecasts for 2022 and 2023, but insisted that there would be no recession. Some analysts would beg to disagree, but the financial markets were relieved, as Fed Chair Powell said he didn't expect 0.75% rate hikes to become common. This is a massive rate hike, the largest since 1994. Will it hasten the long sought-after inflation peak? Along with the Fed, we'll have to be patient and wait.
USD/CHF has broken through support at 0.9928 and 0.9792. The pair is testing support at 0.9698, with 0.9500 the next support line
There is resistance at 1.0084
Dollar Outlook for Week 24 -> DXY, JPY, CHF, GBPLast week I got surprised by strong USD. Not one of the expected predictions came true and therefore no trades have been taken in the $ pairs.
Last week news favored a stronger USD.
Inflation is still unexpected high despite aggressive rate hikes. It seems a 0.5 hike for the next meeting on Wednesday is already fully priced in. Further hikes in the coming months are likely.
On the other hand the markets seem very fragile and therefore an aggressive stance from the FED and other central banks might risk a further slowdown and even more volatility in the markets.
Therefore I still believe the strong $ is only temporary.
→ All the current Outlooks are based on MT weakening of the USD.
→ Outlook solely based on PA.
Wait for confirmation before entering a trade and consider FX correlation.
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Glossary:
HTF – Higher Time Frame
LTF – Lower Time Frame
MT – Medium Term
DT – Down Trend
UT – Up Trend
BO – Break- out
PA – Price Action
CS – Candle Stick
SL – Support Level
RL – Resistance Level
TC – Trend Channel
Color Code:
Blue solid line – Actual PA Structure
Blue dashed line – Legacy PA Structure
Violet dashed line – Area of Sensitivity S/R Levels
Orange dotted line – My Alarms
Bearish Pattern on USDCHFWith ECB hike in few on next meetings, then it can be time to start looking towards SNB to follow the ECB. SNB meeting is next week, June 16.
USDCHF pattern looks bearish with sharp drop from 1.0070 region seen as wave A of an A-B-C pattern that can cause drop towards 0.94/0.93.
Swiss franc rises on higher inflationhe Swiss franc is slightly higher on Thursday. USD/CHF is trading at 0.9596, down 0.39% on the day.
Those of us who think "staid and steady" when the Swiss franc comes to mind will be forgiven for not recognizing the currency lately. The Swissie took riders on a roller-coaster in the month of May, as USD/CHF rose 300 points and broke above parity for the first time since December 2019. The upswing didn't last, as the pair reversed directions and dropped by some 400 points. The Swiss franc has stabilized over the past week after the May volatility. It is noteworthy that the EUR/CHF is trading at a one-month low.
Swiss inflation is moving upwards and hit a 14-year high in May. CPI rose 0.7% MoM, up from 0.4% in April (0.3% exp). On an annualized basis, CPI climbed 2.9%, up from 2.5% in April (2.6% exp.). Inflation remains much lower than the red-hot numbers we're seeing in the eurozone or the UK, but Switzerland traditionally has enjoyed very low inflation, and higher prices are putting pressure on the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to address rising inflationary pressures.
The SNB has maintained an accommodative policy, which includes a benchmark rate of -0.75%, by far the lowest of any major bank. So far, the Bank is not showing any signs of tightening policy by raising rates, although that could change if the Swiss currency continues to appreciate.
Recent US data has been firm, with the notable exception of the housing sector. We'll get a look at US nonfarm payrolls on Friday. The markets are braced for a slowdown, as the April forecast stands at 325 thousand, after a March gain of 428 thousand. It wasn't so long ago that the NFP release was the highlight of the week, but with inflation, the Ukraine war and the OPEC+ meeting, NFP will be sharing the spotlight. Still, it should be considered a market-mover for the US dollar.
There is resistance at 0.9624 and 0.9704
USD/CHF has support at 0.9497 and 0.9417
GBPCHF could try to break the long lasting trend...or notGBPCHF is really undecided nowadays. It has a long lasting trend to fall since the January of 2000. Now it has formed a giant triangle bottoming at around 1.18. Now the Bank of England is in a rate hiking cycle while the Swiss National Bank does not indicate a rate hike any time soon, so a strengthening of the pound is very likely. Besides that, the shockwaves of Brexit are slowly fading, Boris Johnson and his administration set a clear path for the economy (hopefully a good path), so everything is in order, in theory.
On the other hand, the war in Ukraine, the sanctions on Russia, the supply chain problems and the UK's firm anti-russian position and rethoric bring some uncertainty to the equation. On the long run I expect a possible break-out attempt to the upside, targeting the upper end of the falling yellow falling channel firs (around 1.247), then the upper end of the blue triangle (around 1.26).
Be cautious! The other scenario is a rapid fall to the bottom of the channel (1.194), then to the bottom of the triangle (1.18).
Follow me for more updates on the pair and other assets.
Don't forget: money is weird and unpredictable, so plan for all possible scenarios and hedge your positions!
EURCHF: Inverse H & S Complete! Price Likely To Climb Further.With the risk off markets that highly affected the EUR against the safehaven CHF a couple of weeks ago, the price plummeted near the parity! At the moment the price seems to be recovering slightly and likely looks to be headed over to the next psychological resistance found at 1.05000 area.
The Swiss National Bank is likely handing a helping hand to the EUR here by intervening in the market. On the technical basis, the inverse head and shoulders formation was completed and the price is likely to test the neckline before heading higher. All the complete trade details can be found on the main chart.
Cheers, I hope you find this insight helpful. Please LIKE & FOLLOW for more insights on other major currency pairs.
EURCHF on its way to ATL1. Be aware that the SNB (Swiss National Bank) had set a minimum exchange rate of 1.20 CHF per EUR for some years to keep Switzerlands economy in place, because we rely on exports.
2. This synthetically set level can be seen in the period from 2012-2013 where the price basically did nothing for weeks and was just kept alive at that rate
3. On 15.01.2015 this synthetic minimum price was abolished and the price dumped instantly to under the equilibrium, even to 0.96 EUR per CHF. Historical moment!
4. Notice the bearish retest in 2018, what a beautiful rejection there at the last support from 2015.
5. Around start of the pandemic in march 2020 we had a bullish retest of support at bullish weekly OB indicated by the "tick" in green.
6. At the moment we broke this support and I am expecting another break and retest of this 3-month support @ 1.0418.
7. Last but not least, there is a big liquidity pool resting around the sell stops at 1.0234 , above and below. Probably will act as a magnet for price action and a big stop hunt happening there.
CONCLUSION:
--> EUR is at the brink of doom here, holding at the last support in its entire history to the Swiss Franc.
--> the narrative behind the weakness of EUR is the non-stop-printing of new money during the pandemic caused by the ECB
--> add the relatively stable condition of the swiss economy regarding the rest of europe into the mix, and you have enough reasons to sell your EUR to CHF
As a swiss-based trader, wanted to have a look at my personal exchange rate for buying things abroad or taking bigger investments like land and real estate in cheaper european countries. Applying some fundamental knowledge here, but mostly the chart explains itself with its price action. Hope this chart gives some clarification and insight!
$EURCHF: Bottomed here...I think we have a decent trade with something between 3:1 and 5.28:1 RR here. I'm long here since the hourly is bottoming, and daily charts hit long term support, while being close to exhausting the last daily down trend signal that was active. Technically, this is a very strong mean reversion possibility and we have the backing of the Swiss National Bank which could stop the decline intervening in the market around here...
Best of luck,
Cheers.
Ivan.
ridethepig | EURCHF into 1.14The concept of this complete or at least partially supported euro structure
In this swing, there are three actors:
1 . the support which is acting as a pivot
2 . the opposing resistance which is being targeted
3 . the breakout trigger which will provide momentum
The breakout here is attacking the soft resistance at 1.14 which is +/- 4% from current levels and 1.20 next year. So buyers are standing in deep value levels with the two targets mentioned. The structure underneath is generally of royal blood, buyers put a lot of time into the plumbing of these levels and are not fearful of hiding behind one another - thus the short space between strong and soft support.
If this lacks the mobility to break out and is an absolute chop fest then we can make the executive decision to make no move of any sort. If on the other hand, the momentum kicks in as I am expecting, we can move to 1.14 with little pushback over the coming weeks and months. The diagram illustrates the long-term map.
Here the flow towards 2018 highs is underway with the European rebound and we are only "partially" into wave 3. This means we can confidently lean on the macro direction as Swiss outflows are set to continue with CHF cooked as a low yielder for the next few years. For those tracking the SNB reserve activity closely, they are going to get a lot more active in Q3 (a lot similar to Q1).
USDCHF bulls aim for 0.9115 confluence after Fed, SNBUSDCHF extends Fed-led rally to the fresh high since May 06 even as the Swiss National Bank (SNB) reiterated status-quo during early Thursday. The pair seems to prepare bulls for the bi-annual SNB press conference while heading towards a convergence of 100-day SMA and 50% Fibonacci retracement January-April upside. Given the upbeat RSI conditions, not oversold, the quote may battle the 0.9115 hurdle with a notable strength. However, a daily closing beyond the same becomes necessary to aim for another hurdle, near 0.9080, to the mid-March low of 0.9213.
Meanwhile, failures to cross the 0.9115 resistance could trigger a pullback towards the early month top close to 0.9050. Though, any further weakness will be questioned by the 0.9000 psychological magnet and a horizontal area comprising multiple levels since December 21, 2020, around 0.8930-20. In a case wherein the USDCHF prices drop below 0.8920, February lows near 0.8870 and January bottom close to 0.8835 could offer intermediate stops before dragging the pair to the yearly low of 0.8756.
Swiss franc claws up to 90 line on US GDPThe Swiss franc is up for a second straight day. In North American trade, USD/CHF is trading at 0.9000, up 0.24% on the day.
The Swiss franc has made strong inroads in recent weeks against a US dollar which continues to struggle. The dollar posted sharp gains in the first quarter, but has reversed directions. Since April 1, USD/CHF is down 4.8% and has surrendered most of the gains accrued in Q1.
The Swiss central bank (SNB) does not want to see the Swiss franc continue to appreciate, since a higher-valued Swiss franc makes Swiss exports more expensive. The SNB also prefers to see limited movement from the Swissie, so that price movement remains muted. The SNB has been actively purchasing US dollars in order to prevent the exchange rate from continuing to rise. However, with the US dollar showing prolonged weakness and the Federal Reserve insisting that it will not tighten policy anytime soon, the SNB may have a tough time trying to prevent the Swissie from appreciating further.
The US released a data dump earlier in the day. The results were mixed and the dollar edged lower, as the Swiss franc has clawed back up the symbolic 90-level.
US second-estimate GDP came in at 6.4%, confirming the initial read but shy of the forecast of 6.5%. Headline durable goods slowed to 1.0%, down from 1.6%. Core Durable goods surprised with a decline of 1.3%, down from +0.5% and much worse than the consensus of +0.8%. On the employment front, US jobless claims dropped to 406 thousand, down from 444 thousand.
In Switzerland, the trade balance fell to CHF3.82 billion, down from CHF5.7 billion and shy of the forecast of CHF4.2 billion.
USD/CHF faces resistance at 0.9033 and 0.9087. On the downside, there is weak support at 0.8939. Below, there is support at 0.8899
USDCHF capped at topside resistance prior to SNB Rate DecisionUSDCHF is capped at resistance prior to the CHF Rate decision & statement, which may give the SNB a chance to be suprisingly hawkish following months of positive economic data out of Switzerland. The RSI & PPO have both generated sell signals. Price is also around the 50% fibonacci & trendline on the daily chart (not pictured)
Swissie at 8-month lows, KoF barometer nextThe Swiss franc has started the week quietly. Currently, USD/CHF is trading at 0.9398, up 0.08% on the day.
The KoF Economic Barometer, a key indicator of business confidence, will be released on Tuesday (7:00 GMT). The KoF slipped below its long-term average of 100 in January, with a reading of 96.5. The indicator rebounded in February, rising to 102.7 and the upswing is expected to continue, with a forecast of 1o4.2 for March.
The Swiss franc remains under pressure and climbed to 0.9417 on Friday, its highest level since July 2020. USD/CHF has shot up 3.46% in the month of March and pushed into 94- territory. Despite this sharp decline, the Swiss National Bank stated at last week's policy meeting that the currency remained "highly valued". This reflects the agenda of the central bank to keep the Swiss franc at low levels by purchasing massive amounts of dollars, in order to protect the Swiss economy, which is heavily reliant on exports, as well as combating deflation. The SNB maintained its interest rates at -0.75%, among the lowest in the world. The problem for the SNB is that the world views the Swiss franc as a safe-haven asset, which makes it an attractive holding for investors, particularly in times of crisis or uncertainty.
With the SNB keeping low negative rates in place and continuously intervening in forex markets, there is a strong likelihood that the Swiss franc's downturn will continue in the coming weeks, which could mean the currency will put upward pressure on the 95 level. On Wednesday, Credit Suisse Economic Expectations releases its monthly report (8:00 GMT). The index rose to 55.5 in January, up from 43.2 beforehand. Another acceleration in February could give a boost to USD/CHF.
USD/CHF faces resistance at 0.9463. This is followed by resistance at 0.9538. On the downside, 0.9268 remains relevant. Below, there is support at 0.9148. The pair is currently trading just shy of the 38.2% retracement from the 52-week high, at 0.9402.






















