We have a rather bullish meeting minutes from the European Central Bank (ECB) last week, but as long as ECB maintains its easing policies, upside on the Euro may be limited. Combining with the technical aspects on the chart, we are seeing an ending diagonal structure forming, with a divergence on RSI as well. Adding on, we do see price hit the minimum expected...
Based on the macro and fundamental analysis of the US Dollar, I'm personally holding a bullish bias for 2018/19. Price may not rally straight from here, but I would rather look for buy opportunity for the longer term, and would be more aggressive in taking profit for any short trades. I will be following up and tracking this thread regularly throughout the...
A longer-term bullish idea on the EURCHF - D1 - This pair looks to have recently broken out of a trading channel to the upside, I'd ideally like to see some sort of pullback to re-test the top of the channel & possibly the bullish trend line before looking to get long. Ultimately there is some Fib confluence in the yellow area on the chart, which also happens to...
I think having a cash position in CHF makes sense here, so, if your margin accounts have $USD as default cash/balance currency, I'd reccomend swapping it for $CHF. I see a potential continuation of the monthly uptrend in the Swiss Franc, which would send this pair easily 15% higher within a year. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
In this chart I analyze the recent uptrend in the Franc. It appears to have ran into a wall, where the election day's low and the Brexit low sit, as well as a massive volume level, which will take time to break. I'd rather be flat here, and wait, we can look to buy dips in this or the Euro, or Gold or Silver probably meanwhile. This can serve as a hedge against...
From April 2002 to August 2014, USDJPY is trading below the 200 week moving average. since 2014, it is trading above the 200 w moving average and the bollinger band width is tightened. this is a setup for a breakout and I will suggest an upside breakout. USDCHF have already reject to go futher south in two event EURCHF Floor Setup and Abandon event. At this moment...
Long EURCHF - 9/10 Conviction: 1. Having watched the 1.08 level closely post-brexit it certainly looks as if there is some FX intervention going on at the 1.08 handle - suspicions enforced even more as SNB President Jordan has said in the past that FX intervention is on the cards should CHF move even higher when we were around this level previously. 2. Ive...
Long EURCHF - 9/10 Conviction: 1. Having watched the 1.08 level closely post-brexit it certainly looks as if there is some FX intervention going on at the 1.08 handle - suspicions enforced even more as SNB President Jordan has said in the past that FX intervention is on the cards should CHF move even higher when we were around this level previously. 2. Ive...
Long EURCHF: 1. Having watched the 1.08 level closely post-brexit it certainly looks as if there is some FX intervention going on at the 1.08 handle - suspicions enforced even more as SNB President Jordan says FX intervention is on the cards should CHF move even higher/ Rate cut possible another 50bps. 2. Plus EUR vs CHF september rate expectations are skewed...
SNB President T. Jordan comment highlights: - If Needed, Can Cut Rates Further - 50bps to 1.25% possible until negative rates turn less effective - Big Concern Over Significantly Overvalued CHF in 2016 risk-off dominated year - CHF 3m Libor prices 80% chance of a 25bps cut (-0.75 to -1.00%) within 3 months (was only 40% before brexit) - Low bond yields not...
Now that the Brexit risk has been realised the mentioned pairs above will share some correlation this week as the market changes between risk-on and risk-off as MANY on the events continually drive the sentiment shifts. My Plan & Expectations USDJPY 1. My conviction for UJ is long 8/10. -UJ traded to lows of 98.9 in the midst of the brexit hype, as the...
GBPUSD - At the end of last week GU traded to lows of 1.32 on the brexit vote, before retracing substantially to 1.39 by the end of the day. - GU retraced 600-700pips after the brexit event IMO solely as investors took profit from their shorts (which causes buying) - thus there was no structural reason for GU recovering e.g. it was that 1.32 had mispriced GU...
Keep away from sidewalks under windows. MACD: RSI: Will the monster eat you too?
CHF too expensive in EUR terms I expect a rate cut by the SNB.... if not...they will intervene directly.
The British Pound has been getting crushed by the Swiss Franc since 11/21 but starting 4/8 the Pound has managed a nice counter-trend rally. The reasons for traders to flock to the Franc for the Pound are more than I wish to list in this post. Any currency can manage a counter trend rally, but if the fundamentals are against that currency, the rally will quickly...
CHFJPY is offering a terrific reward/risk opportunity in the daily chart. As you can see I have marked a level of net short positioning for oil futures traders, as well as added the oil line chart as an overlay to the comittment of traders report data indicator so you can see what happened the last time commercial hedgers' net short positions reached these...
In my previous publication I shared an optimum level to go long USDCHF using the quarterly uptrend stop loss. Currently we have retested this key level, and rallied, but we approach a heavy resistance zone and the weekly chart presents a confirmed 13 week decline which aims for 0.93084. I had added the FOMC key levels, which represent support and resistance...
The USDCHF is currently consolidation and trading within a downward range. The correction and retracement is not far away, and will occur by the 15th of April. You will see a break above from the historical support. Wait for a break above the resistance line.