- At the end of last week GU traded to lows of 1.32 on the brexit vote, before retracing substantially to 1.39 by the end of the day.
- GU retraced 600-700pips after the brexit event IMO solely as investors took profit from their shorts (which causes buying) - thus there was no structural reason for GU recovering e.g. it was that 1.32 had mispriced GU too low for the brexit vote.
On the back of this I expect the following for GU this week:
1. I have a 8/10 short conviction on GU and ultimately believe it will trade <1.30 by weeks end for the following reasons: -
- As on friday, the movements we saw on GBP were 90% fast money trades and NOT real/ slow money positioning (due to different regulations and trading strategies) therefore, this week, slow/ real money will now be able to get behind the short sterling move thus providing momentum for GBP to move lower and sub 1.30.
*Fast money is hedge funds and slow money is asset managers*
- David Cameron UK PM also resigned following the result, thus putting further downside expectations on GBP in the near-medium term particularly as it as all come at once.
- Also the BOE plans to increase its by 66% 350bn to 600bn to support markets but this printing increasing GBP money supply affect puts downward pressure on the GBPUSD .
- Further, members of the European parliament have asked and put pressure on the UK to make their exit faster than previously expected, this puts further uncertainty around the brexit and increases the negative impact it may have on the economy and therefore the GBP speculation is made further .
- As pictured I had expected the 1.356-1.382 range that had held at the end of last week to hold for the next 24hrs and for GU to trade relatively flat (24hrs for people to make decisions on positioning) however it looks like corporations and other entities have derisked their GBP exposure over the weekend hence we opened 300pips lower at 1.342.
- With this range broken we now trade in no mans land, thus with all the negative biases my target from now is for GU to drift towards the lows set from last week for now - If the market changes significantly within the next few hours (e.g. trades back into range) i will update this view.
- My target for GBP is <1.30 with a terminal value of 1.25 within the quarter - though i consider that the supportive (no hike) policy of the FOMC will ease GBPUSD losses somewhat. This in mind shorts at these levels are fair 1.34. Alternatively, I also encourage my favourite tactic of shorting/ fading any GBP rallies to 1.38/39 however the chance of GU realising such upside imo is only 50%, with bid trading dominating
Current GU ATM 50 delta vols trade at 25%, which is surprisingly 2x higher than it was last week (the risk and may not be over).
1wk GU ATM 50 delta vols trade at 30%, significantly higher than last week also.
However 1ms trade 20.49% and are significantly lower than they were last week (illustrating the event risk that has elapsed).
Current GU Option demand is skewed significantly to the downside, with Puts 27.5% vs calls 22.5% thus puts are in demand by about 20% more than calls - this supports current short views (RR -5).
1wk GU demand is also skewed in favour of downside coverage, with puts at 33% vs calls 28%, (RR -5%) with puts being demanded apprx 3% more than calls - supporting the near terms view of short GU
USDJPY as a measure of market risk.
I still suggest using UJ as a measure of GBPUSD market risk - the seemingly isnt over, and with near term uncertainty high, it is prudent to track UJ and use breaks of its 101.2-103.2 range as signals of net risk on or risk-off commitment .e.g. UJ higher risk on (jpy selling), UJ lower risk off ( jp buying).
The risk off move for GU imo is lower in this environment, and the risk-on move is higher. Thus, IMO UJ and GU are sync'd, and the two should be used as a tool.