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QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading GBPUSD, D, Short ,
GBPUSD: GBPUSD SHORT: DOVISH BOE M. CARNEY SPEECH HIGHLIGHTS - AUG CUT
458 0 20
GBPUSD, D Short
GBPUSD SHORT: DOVISH BOE M. CARNEY SPEECH HIGHLIGHTS - AUG CUT

IMO Mark Carney was very dovish on the margin, certainly reinforcing their/ my view of an August cut being 90% on the table. The most supportive statements were "MonPol Important In Cushioning Effects Of Any Relapse In Recovery In Months & Quarters Ahead", "The MPC Does Not Have The ''Luxury '' and "More Should Be Done To Cushion The Effects Of Negative Shocks" - ...

QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading DXY, D, Long ,
DXY: LONG DXY/ USD VS GBP: HAWKISH FOMC LOCKHART SPEECH HIGHLIGHTS
189 0 10
DXY, D Long
LONG DXY/ USD VS GBP: HAWKISH FOMC LOCKHART SPEECH HIGHLIGHTS

FOMC Lockhart was the 4th Fed this week to imo be relatively Hawkish with his words, most notably reinforcing with the others brexits near-term stability saying "Doesn't Expect 'Brexit' to Have Near Term Impact on Economy" and " So Far 'Brexit' Reaction Largely Orderly". Most interestingly though was Lockharts view on the FOMC's positioning for future rate ...

QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading GBPUSD, D, Short ,
GBPUSD: SHORT GBPUSD @1.34 - BOE MINUTES HIGHLIGHTS - EXPECT AUGUST CUT
410 3 9
GBPUSD, D Short
SHORT GBPUSD @1.34 - BOE MINUTES HIGHLIGHTS - EXPECT AUGUST CUT

As expected BOE stood pat on their rate decision reiterating much of which was said last week by Gov M. Carney, the need for more analysis to be done is/ was key - " "Detailed Analysis" of All Policy Options Required" and "Extent Of Additional Stimulus Will Depend on August Forecasts". IMO the notes were very bearish and almost but 100% chance of some sort of ...

QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading USOIL, D, Long ,
USOIL: USOIL UKOIL: IEA MONTHLY OIL REPORT - BREXIT; DEMAND > SUPPLY 17
379 0 12
USOIL, D Long
USOIL UKOIL: IEA MONTHLY OIL REPORT - BREXIT; DEMAND > SUPPLY 17

The IEA Oil Market Report was largely in line with OPEC's assesment yesterday - Non OPEC output was seen falling in 2016 by 900,000 B/D - However, they differed on the 2017 perspective with 2017 expectations from the IEA forecasting a modest growth of 200,000 B/D in 2017. Opec Output however rose to an eight year high up 400,000 B/D in June at 3.21M B/D on the ...

QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading EURUSD, D, Long ,
EURUSD: LONG USD VS JPY, EUR, GBP: HAWISK FED BULLARD - FED FUNDS RALLY
584 8 23
EURUSD, D Long
LONG USD VS JPY, EUR, GBP: HAWISK FED BULLARD - FED FUNDS RALLY

Bullard is the lone Fed official forecasting just one additional rate increase, and expects modest growth over the next two and a half years. But he reiterated Tuesday he's not expecting the economy to head south. However, did go out of his way to mention a relatively dovish point "We Have Some Ammunition if We Need it During Next Recession". Nonetheless he ...

QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading USDJPY, D, Long ,
USDJPY: BUY USDJPY @104 & SELL GBPUSD @1.33: RISK-ON, POLITICS, BOJ, BOE
535 0 18
USDJPY, D Long
BUY USDJPY @104 & SELL GBPUSD @1.33: RISK-ON, POLITICS, BOJ, BOE

The Federal Reserve's regulatory point man said work to address the lessons of the 2008 financial crisis won't be complete without better regulation of short-term funding both inside and outside the banking system. St Louis Fed President Jim Bullard may be the Fed's new super dove, but he's no pessimist, he says. Bullard is the lone Fed official forecasting just ...

QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading NZDUSD, D, Short ,
NZDUSD: SELL NZDUSD - RECONFIRMED BY 12M HIGHS? CPI PRINT EYED CLOSELY
414 1 21
NZDUSD, D Short
SELL NZDUSD - RECONFIRMED BY 12M HIGHS? CPI PRINT EYED CLOSELY

Also as additional technicals to support the short NZD$ view: 1. On the daily and NU currently Trades close/ at to its +2 standard deviation lines, these are highly resistive. - Assuming NU trades mean reverting +2SD means there is a 95% chance of a price reversal/ 95% of all prices should be below the +2SD channel lines (e.g. NU highly likely lower from here). ...

QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading SPX, D, Short ,
SPX: RISK-ON RISK-OFF POSITIVE CORRELATION? SPX VS GOLD, JPY & UST P1
313 2 14
SPX, D Short
RISK-ON RISK-OFF POSITIVE CORRELATION? SPX VS GOLD, JPY & UST P1

The Paradoxical Risk-on/ Risk-off Asset positive correlation: 1. Risk off assets have outperformed to date, with Gold leading the gains at 28%, JPY following at 18% and US 10y treasuries Trading 16% up in 2016 - average at 20.5%. 2. Meanwhile, SPX trades 5% up since 4.1.2016 but more importantly, since 20th January lows SPX is up 15%. 3. this is significantly ...

QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading USDCNH, D, Short ,
USDCNH: BREXIT YUAN DEVALU: USDCNH - SNEAKY FX FIXING? SELL SPX & FTSE
364 0 13
USDCNH, D Short
BREXIT YUAN DEVALU: USDCNH - SNEAKY FX FIXING? SELL SPX & FTSE

At the start of 2016 the PBOC began aggressively devaluing the off-shore Yuan against the USD, imo in an attempt to start the year with a competitive export:import advantage - with the aim of making 2016 a headline "come back" year for China amid the growing GDP growth and Credit bubble worries. As a result Equities across the board sold-off (-8.5% in a few ...

QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading EURUSD, D, Short ,
EURUSD: SHORT EURUSD: DOVISH ECB MONETARY POLICY MINUTES - FRESH EASING?
330 1 15
EURUSD, D Short
SHORT EURUSD: DOVISH ECB MONETARY POLICY MINUTES - FRESH EASING?

IMO the ECB minutes were the most dovish/ clearly directed statements out of the ECB for several months. Before this, and in the past several speakers comments, sentiment has been towards the hawkish/ stale side, citing "ECB has done enough" as the main rhetoric. The June Minutes however show a renewed positioning of the ECB, where they clearly imply they are ...

QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading DXY, D, Long ,
DXY: USD/ DXY: FOMC DUDLEY & WILLIAMS - BREXIT & US ECONOMY SPILLOVER
233 0 9
DXY, D Long
USD/ DXY: FOMC DUDLEY & WILLIAMS - BREXIT & US ECONOMY SPILLOVER

1. IMO Dudley tipped to the dovish side, especially on key inflation highlighting that it is " rising again, but still low". Other rhetoric reaffirmed much of what has been said post the brexit vote e.g. Uncertainty being the biggest factor. 2. Meanwhile, Williams was notably more upbeat/ optimistic, shrugging off the US's shock miss NFP report to instead point ...

QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading GBPUSD, D, Short ,
GBPUSD: SHORT GBPUSD & FTSE RALLIES: GOV M.C SPEECH & BOE FSR HIGHLIGHTS
567 0 14
GBPUSD, D Short
SHORT GBPUSD & FTSE RALLIES: GOV M.C SPEECH & BOE FSR HIGHLIGHTS

1. *Id say a 6/10 dovish reaction by markets, GBP falling across the board & FTSE gaining. Carney seems contempt with a lower GBP and is happy to continue talking the currency lower in an attempt to use the exchange rate mechanism as a leading instrument to buoy UK economic stability (GDP, CPI, Unemp) against the potential Brexit backdrop; thus I continue my view ...

QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading NZDUSD, 60, Short ,
NZDUSD: SHORT NZDUSD: +2 STANDARD DEVIATION PIVOT POINT ON DAILY & H1
517 7 24
NZDUSD, 60 Short
SHORT NZDUSD: +2 STANDARD DEVIATION PIVOT POINT ON DAILY & H1

Also as additional technicals to support the short NZD$ view: 1. On the daily, weekly and H1 NU currently Trades (and at 0.73) close/ at to its +2 standard deviation lines, these are highly resistive. - Assuming NU trades mean reverting +2SD means there is a 95% chance of a price reversal/ 95% of all prices should be below the +2SD channel lines (e.g. NU highly ...

QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading AUDUSD, D, Short ,
AUDUSD: SHORT AUDUSD TP 800PIPS:  BREXIT, RBA, FED & USDJPY HEDGE
1520 4 44
AUDUSD, D Short
SHORT AUDUSD TP 800PIPS: BREXIT, RBA, FED & USDJPY HEDGE

Short AUDUSD is in my top 3 FX Trades for several reasons: 1. AUD is considered a riskier G10 currency cross, so AUD trades weaker in risk-off markets, or when equities/ SPX trade lower (you can see the high correlation with SPX at the bottom of the graph). - With Brexit concurring last week, global risk has increased, this is especially the case for AUD due to ...

QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading USDJPY, 45, Long ,
USDJPY: RANGE BOUND - USDJPY: TRADING STRATEGY - PART 2
468 1 13
USDJPY, 45 Long
RANGE BOUND - USDJPY: TRADING STRATEGY - PART 2

Trading for this week: 1. My plan for next week focuses on point "3." from the previous post - I am waiting for risk-on or risk-off assets to confirm investor conviction by using USDJPY as a barometer for net risk sentiment. Despite the market uncertainty and high volatility UJ last week traded within a 200pip range for the between 101.3-103.3. Therefore, I ...

QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading USDJPY, 45, Long ,
USDJPY: RANGE BOUND - USDJPY: IS THIS GLOBAL RISK RECOVERY REAL? PART 1
328 0 14
USDJPY, 45 Long
RANGE BOUND - USDJPY: IS THIS GLOBAL RISK RECOVERY REAL? PART 1

Expectations vs Reality: 1. Following the referendum decision on Friday, as expected GBP sold off 10%+, the FTSE plummeted in a similar fashion and global risk assets sold off across the board, but FTSE/ Risk recovered a significant amount of those losses into Fridays close and for the rest of the next week.. So what happened to BREXIT? - Such behaviour would ...

QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading USDJPY, 15,
USDJPY: BREXIT AND GEO-POLITICAL AFTERMATH: BUY USDJPY - HOW TO TRADE
287 1 18
USDJPY, 15
BREXIT AND GEO-POLITICAL AFTERMATH: BUY USDJPY - HOW TO TRADE

Now that the Brexit risk has been realised the mentioned pairs above will share some correlation this week as the market changes between risk-on and risk-off as MANY on the events continually drive the sentiment shifts. My Plan & Expectations USDJPY 1. My conviction for UJ is long 8/10. -UJ traded to lows of 98.9 in the midst of the brexit hype, as the market ...

QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading GBPUSD, 15, Short ,
GBPUSD: BREXIT & GEO-POLITICAL AFTERMATH: SHORT GBPUSD - HOW TO TRADE
634 3 19
GBPUSD, 15 Short
BREXIT & GEO-POLITICAL AFTERMATH: SHORT GBPUSD - HOW TO TRADE

GBPUSD - At the end of last week GU traded to lows of 1.32 on the brexit vote, before retracing substantially to 1.39 by the end of the day. - GU retraced 600-700pips after the brexit event IMO solely as investors took profit from their shorts (which causes buying) - thus there was no structural reason for GU recovering e.g. it was that 1.32 had mispriced GU too ...

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