ECB deposit rate facility news comes out soon, as well as speech from the ECB in general terms relating to monetary policy. Anything that confirms a quicker easing cycle will likely feed into a downside drip for the EURO. This comes as a near term uptrend forms on a second high. Upside moves will rely on anything that will delay a cut (unlikely). The FED has...
A more dovish fed receiving softer data has brought the USDCAD mostly on par over a longer period of time. The link between the two economies has helped form a very tentative downtrend over the last month. We are now arriving at Key Technical Price Action areas amid a clear downtrend. Swings entries/exits noted, likely to go inline with CB trajectory for the...
Current Context The GBP/USD pair settled at 1.2895 during the Asian trading hours on Thursday. The increasing possibility that the Bank of England (BoE) might start cutting interest rates in August has weakened the British Pound. In the absence of significant economic data releases from the UK, the GBP/USD pair will be influenced by the US Dollar (USD). Support...
The Canadian dollar is almost unchanged on Wednesday, after the Bank of Canada cut rates at today’s meeting. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3778, up 0.05% on the day at the time of writing. The Bank of Canada lowered rates by 25 basis points, bringing the key interest rate to 4.50%. The markets had priced in a rate cut at close to 90%, so...
The (in)famous Yield Curve remains inverted. In recent past, spreads normalized only to revert to inversion as rate cut expectations got pushed out. This time though, is different. Recent CPI print has significantly altered market sentiment. The likelihood of an initial rate cut at the September FOMC meeting now exceeds 90%. Consequently, the yield curve is...
Current Price Movement: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures on the NYMEX have extended their downside, trading below $78.00. This decline is primarily driven by concerns over China's economic outlook and political uncertainty in the United States. Factors Influencing the Oil Price: China’s Economic Concerns: The People's Bank of China (PBoC) unexpectedly...
Going along with my usual 'Key Hidden Levels' in the markets perspective that NEWS is an important price level to mark on charts so it is visible to everyone, I have created the update to the "Rate Hiking Cycle" chart. The purple triangles and lines are the range of the day of the announcement and the mid-point of the day plotted horizontally forward. With this...
EUR/USD stays below 1.0900: The pair has defended gains in a context of a weak US Dollar (USD), despite risk aversion, which has supported the EUR/USD exchange rate. Focus on Political and Macroeconomic Data: Attention remains on US political updates and mid-tier economic data from both the EU and the US for fresh trading impetus. Key Technical...
Current Situation: The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) has experienced a slight decline due to the strengthening of the US dollar (USD), supported by rising yields. Currently, the price of WTI is around $81.20 per barrel during European hours on Thursday, after gaining ground in the Asian session due to a larger-than-expected drop in US crude oil...
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept rates at 5.5% last week, but adopted a softer tone compared to the hawkish messaging of the previous meeting, raising chances of a rate cut this year. Today’s soft inflation data help towards such action, since CPI eased to 3.3% in Q2 and the lowest in three years. Despite these prospects, NZD/USD contains its fall and...
Trump, Fed Speculation Drive Gold to New Heights Gold price cleared the May 20 high of $2450 on Tuesday, as expectations intensify that the U.S. Federal Reserve will commence an easing cycle in September. Fed Chair Jerome Powell addressed the Economic Club of Washington this week, noting the economy's solid performance and signaling potential rate cuts once...
A Hawkish RBA stance, likely to hold rates for some time is a contrast to a FED looking at a softer landing. This difference, particularly in recent times has shown fully. AUD strength has been sustained, whereas lower inflation data has supported the case for easing and brought USD weakness. After lower highs and higher lows have formed a tight price range, you...
WTI crude oil prices have shown a downward trend in recent sessions, falling for three consecutive days. Currently, WTI stands around the $80.70 region, recording a daily loss of about 0.40%. Despite this decline, the price remains above the overnight swing low, suggesting a lack of conviction among sellers. Factors Influencing Prices Chinese Economy: Economic...
Current Overview Gold (XAU/USD) has regained traction, trading in positive territory slightly above $2,420 after dipping towards $2,400 at the beginning of the week. Technical Analysis Daily Chart: The bullish outlook for XAU/USD remains strong despite a retreat from intraday highs. The daily chart shows that the pair is rallying well above bullish moving...
Current Overview EUR/USD is defensive below 1.0900 in the Asian session on Monday, edging lower amid risk aversion following the shooting incident at a Trump rally. This event has bolstered the US Dollar due to its safe-haven appeal. The pair's focus remains on US politics and upcoming statements from Federal Reserve officials. Technical Analysis Support...
Throughout US economic history Only high real rates has brought down inflation i.e Interest rates ABOVE the rate of inflation obviously this will induce demand destruction and a decline in the earnings of companies Lower p/e's and lower prices across the board. #FinancialRESET #HOUSING #Nasdaq
GBPUSD H8 Converse to AUDUSD analysis above. We also have the likes of GBPUSD here in front of us, where we have seen a rejection from 1.28500 price, a half number acting as resistance. If we look to the left on this chart, on June 12, you'll notice and aggressive selloff. This formed an attractive area of supply. We have a few confluence in and around this...
Current Situation USD/JPY is holding at elevated levels near 161.00 during Asian trading on Tuesday. The high-risk sentiment, driven by expectations of a Fed rate cut, contributes to the pair's latest increase. All eyes are on Fed Chair Powell’s testimony for further indications on monetary policy. Recent Data and Technical Indicators Daily Chart: On...