#HAWKISH #FED to remain until #US has positive real rates...

Oct 23, 2022

Throughout US economic history

Only high real rates has brought down inflation

i.e Interest rates ABOVE the rate of inflation

obviously this will induce demand destruction and a decline in the earnings of companies

Lower p/e's and lower prices across the board.

#FinancialRESET

#HOUSING

#Nasdaq

Mar 22, 2024

Note

We have positive real rates since December 2022

Now the dems are saying 3% should be the goal!!! lol

Jul 12, 2024

Note

victory dance incoming

Sep 12, 2024

Note

2.5%

Sep 27, 2024

Note

core #PCE

#FED victory dance

Feb 14

Note

"The Fed should maintain a "wait-and-see" hold on rates to ensure disinflation is permanent before potentially delivering a final normalization cut in the second half of 2026."


In the world of macroeconomics, a 1.24% real interest rate is firmly in "Tight Money" (Restrictive) territory.


Why 1.24% is "Tight" right now:
The Neutral Benchmark: Historically, the neutral real rate is estimated to be around 0.5% to 1.0%. Since 1.24% is above that level, the Fed is effectively "pressing the brake" on the economy.

The Inflation Gap: With the Fed Funds rate at 3.50% - 3.75% and inflation cooling to 2.4%, the "Real Rate" (the cost of money after you subtract inflation) has actually become tighter even though the Fed hasn't raised nominal rates.