We have seen an amazing fall in interest rates.
Bonds have looked to put in a local bottom.
Why are bonds showing signs of accumulation?
Is the bond market pricing in a recession?
I believe the recent decline in yields is due to commodity weakness.
Yields have soften because energy & base metals have become cheaper.
This drives the disinflationary...
The SPY and IWM have completely diverged.
On the back of rate cut expectations, many investors are piling back into the junk and high beta names.
A clear relative strength move has occurred in small caps: IWM
Whilst the megacap stocks have been sold off.
The SPY sliced through the 50 MA yesterday and cofirmed the break below.
Although this is typically...
Throughout US economic history
Only high real rates has brought down inflation
i.e Interest rates ABOVE the rate of inflation
obviously this will induce demand destruction and a decline in the earnings of companies
Lower p/e's and lower prices across the board.
#FinancialRESET
#HOUSING
#Nasdaq
Silver, after confirming Partial-Rise, has also formed 3 Falling Peaks and looks to be preparing to drop back below the bottom end of the range at 18 dollars. When it does this, it will enter a Butterfly BAMM Wave Structure that ends at the 1.272-1.618 Fibonacci Extensions. As a result of this new price action, I am lowering my price target to $6.61-$0.21 from my...
Gold seems to be on track to completing a fractal of the mid 70s to Late 90s where it resets over 20 years of Price of Bullish Price action by way of losing over 70% of its value after a previous inflation fueled rally. Now we can see that we have the 20 Year Trend Line, A bearish Alt Bat, Bearish PPO Confirmation, and Bearish Divergence all as we head back...
Earlier in 2022 I got some Bullish Exposure to Deflation by positioning Bearishly against TIPs (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities) as can be seen here:
Fast-forward to today and we can now see the CPI declining and the TIPs declining even faster, This ETF Tracks the price of these TIPs and we can see that it is breaking through support even though the CPI...
The decline in the US inflation rate to more than a two-year low, marks a major step towards the end of the Fed’s historic monetary tightening cycle1. We believe key deflationary forces are in play – (1) weaker commodity prices (2) improvement in global supply chains (3) moderation in demand (4) lower inflation expectations. Therefore, the June decline in...
Series of 1-2 1-2 can lead brent price to 30 dollars area . It seems impossible today , but in the end of 2019 before the crash " everything was good " Recession , Deflation , liquidity problems will prices down . Everyone hopes on light recession , but everything will be much more worse
When all investors are sure that prices will continue to grow ( or decline) , It means reversal looms. The dollar is in the same situation . Everyone predicts inevitable weakness of dollar . They can offer many reasons and each of them look like a 100% signal . Something may change instantly . We are on the verge of this transformation.
The long—term target for...
Daily and Weekly Rejection. 200 Billion Calls of worth and market flat.
The US bought 200 billion worth of options is 200 billion of stocks to sell to get the market flat.
Lower highs and weekly and daily rejections on Friday. see the market getting its recession on Monday,
Delta in options across the board was at yearly highs. DAX rallied with EU meeting. But...
looking at TLT cloned the 5 wave ABC pattern and inserted it into now aligning it with the June rate decision to support a bullish move towards the long term 50% Fibonacci retracement level this could be the play of the year during a recession or deflation Bonds should rise
The Fed is damned by inflation if they print, damned by bank runs if they dont print. And with recession on the way, history shows we could plumb to new lows if the Fed only prints enough to backstop banks and pensions. Early 2000s and early 1930s were two such cases where the Fed aggressively lowered rates for well over 18 months but markets continued to trend...
Caterpillar is on the verge of triggering a bearish topping formation.
This stock has been a powerhouse during the rising rate environment.
if this market leader breaks down its signaling weakness in the economy and likely the industrial sector.
Today we saw a systemic risk in the financial sector. The regional banks were hit extremally hard and as a result the Major banks saw sell side liquidation.
Where there's one cockroach, there's usually another.
Risk in the banking sector is the worst type of risk investors can ask for. Credit liquidity crisis is not something to mess around with.
SIVB looks...
Lumber is signalling disinflation.
Stocks are signaling inflation.
There has bee a high correlation with stocks and lumber for about 18 months. Is this correlation officially breaking or does it imply we will see some weakness in stocks?
Right now lumber is showing weakness.
I welcome you and wish you good luck in these times.
Today, I made some sketch, how should, or would be strong year ending.
While I still stay sceptic fundamentally and also on technicals .
It due to downtrend, recession and upcoming deflation waiting in 2023.
Never hold you money at any exchanges ;- )
There's more options and sites like Fixed Float, or...
