I wanted to post a few thoughts of the somewhat educational variety. Hopefully this will help with perspective on where we've been and why I continue to see equity market weakness for the extended and foreseeable future (1-3 years maybe). So starting with this chart, this is the 10 year US Treasury yield below and the S&P 500 index above going back to...
We're probably going to bounce from here (maybe muck around for the rest of the week and bounce next week higher); I think the BOE's QE decision is going to have people hoping that perhaps the Fed will do the same. The fact that a central bank can flinch and go the other way is a huge psychological change. This is somewhat of an exogenous event to the positive, to...
Easy idea... Long against the DXY pullback... should we not get it then i'm out before stops but thinking 28-30k and or 200 day MA easy targets if it can get above trend lines.
DXY could easily make another pop to around 114.40 IMO but that would be the top for me... that is my line in the sand to remain in long positions: $BTC $MARA $ARBK $BTCM $ZIM
the big topic of this month and July has been RECESSION . I believe it depends all on the labour market now if we start to see increasing unemployment that could tip us into a recession. this is why I am short on the SPY because I believe this rally will fizzle out because there have been no real positive changes in the macroeconomics currently to fuel this...
I expect more downside in miners if perceived hawkishness from the fed is maintained. Soon though, they'll cave and sacrifice the dollar to do what they think will save the markets, which will lead to an explosion in precious metals. These miners will be the ultimate levered trade on the coming fed pivot so be ready to reverse to long.
We have all heard the lies of powell, yellen and co, no one can cover the sun with one finger and no one can make money infinite (aka QE ABUSE), enjoy your arrogance and financial stupidity, thanks for giving us free money. 😨🔥📈💥😭
Enjoy the trend. 💎
I mentioned recently on twitter that I am long USDJPY.
Not much to say about the dollar, other than it looks like it wants to break out to the upside. Additionally, the macroeconomic tailwinds support a bullish dollar thesis in a couple of ways:
1. The Federal Reserve has been very transparent about their intention to continue to raise interest rates through...
This chart uses a simple downtrend in order to predict the terminal fed funds rate, which I believe will be 150-175 basis points by March 2023. As we can see, the previous fed funds rate hikes under the current downtrend have resulted in periods of lower GDP growth as well as yield-curve inversions and very regularly precede lows in total US jobless claims (the...
If you look at the S&P500 index ( TVC:SPX ) chart, you find that it has reached, and even surpassed, the previous high at 3393.5 which occurred just before the CV19 drop in March 2020. The last close on 31 December 2020 was at 3760. However, many attribute the recent V-shaped recovery to the Quantitative Easing scheme by the Federal Reserve, which makes a lot of...
$BTC closed Jan 6th Daily with a bearish engulfing candle, providing indication that selling momentum remains strong.
Unable to sustain long-term mid-channel as support, increasing likelihood of 100 EMA falling below the 200 EMA for an impending "death cross" in near future.
Bearish structures continue, double tops, head & shoulders losing neckline support,...
I'm certainly not a person to take financial advice from.
But today I noticed something in morning futures trading that concerned me.
A news release on bio & tech caused about 5 minutes of extreme volatility and a test / rejection of 4712.
My thoughts are that with Fed Bond purchases this morning at 10am there might be additional volatility for the indexes and...
Gold setting up a beautiful Bull Pennant on the week chart.
With Volatility increasing thanks to the tapering of QE, a flight to gold is a natural reaction.
A break and hold above $1 860 could result in a first price target back to local highs of $2 000.
I am bullish on Gold for the medium term.
VIX has hit my short term price target of $25.
With all the fundamentals of money supply, let see how the market reacts now with some easing in QE.
I hope this coming crash will be a lesson Central Banks, but I doubt it....
Lets sit back and what the volatility bubble up!
Silver and SVM has consolidated to new lows in 2021. Await FED printing program QE to float more QQQ.
SVM showing head and shoulders after retracing that should break upward from current position. Silver will need to get back to $25, or $28 range for really good up.
Just my opine, trade at your own risk as call for Jan in the money, or buy due to inflation...