Hope this idea will inspire some of you !
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How long can the BoJ maintain its zero yield curve targeting with the growing divergence between US rates, strong GDP numbers and Abe's strong arming of Japanese corporates to raise wages? Looking for the USDJPY to test 100 congestion zone in the medium term followed by the 91 handle over the longer term. Extrapolate the strength of the USDJPY to the DXY and ...
Very quick and intuitive short. As I was typing my review of the EURAUD trade, and reviewing Draghi speech, the Short idea pops up and I went right in as it broke through 1.2 like a piece of cake. I put wide stop though..who knows it may retrace.
Draghi is due to speak tonight during the ECB Press Conference. I guess today this is all market will talk about. The morning session up to this point has not hinted much, aside from EURAUD moving up due to AUD bad data, the rest is kinda sideway. Running into this event I don't have any particular insights, given the structure of first statement, followed by Q&A, ...
EURUSD has a "fair value" of around 1.36 according to OCED (https://data.oecd.org/conversion/purchasing-power-parities-ppp.htm)
It was oscillating around that area for a while until a period of divergent monetary policy - the fed stopping their money printing presses and the ECB starting theirs. This brought the Euro to almost parity.
But now we are entering a ...
So big focus on this market right now. There are some reasons why Euro goes higher actually, but this is not forever. I see this like strong political thing. The fact is ECB will end QE by the time and rising rates may earlier. Meanwhile Trump will fight for his reforms. I am really curious what will hapend. Does Mario Draghi know more?
OANDA:USDJPY has consolidated for a few days already and failed to retake the 112 level.
With a series of lower highs, the supply resistance level is slowly going down to meet with the Weekly 200MA support.
Its possible it might find support at the Daily 200MA level as it was able bounce off it from the previous downleg.
In my opinion it might still test the ...
OANDA:USDJPY looks like its bouncing back up after a severe downmove forming a nice channel.
4H Timeframe View:
It was able to pullback and even retest the 20MA in the 4H timeframe so it will be great if it touches the 50MA(yellow line) and hold above it for a confirmation of the short term uptrend.
I think we can see a sharp rally back to the 2-month timeframe downtrend mode, as explained in my long term view chart. We can look to add on dips to 1.0564, with stops at 1.0505, or simply, add after each time the market moves 1 average range in profit, on setbacks. Note the triangle I highlight, constructed using the highest low before the election, the lowest ...
FX_IDC:GBPJPY looks like its consolidating for a breakdown but its holding up pretty well this year. No positions as of yet but if this pair is indeed going to breakdown in the near future then the best short entry points is right along the Daily 50MA/Triangle resistance if it reaches that level.
Any feedbacks are appreciated!
FX_IDC:USDJPY looks like it got rejected by the daily 50MA courtesy of Janet Yellen. As long as the bearish momentum continues, its possible that we may retest the daily low once more completing the handle before NFP/FOMC.
TP: (tp1) 113.5 (tp2) 112.7 (tp3) 111.6
Any feedbacks are appreciated!
FX_IDC:USDJPY completed the handle of the Inverse Cup and Handle pattern and its now testing the previous daily low.
If FX_IDC:USDJPY breaks down then it should retest the daily support turned resistance as the 200MA Daily, 50/200 MA Weekly, 50/200MA Monthly Moving Averages should provide support for the price to bounce.
If it bounces from here then it needs to ...
Kinda cluttered, these are areas I'm paying attention to, depending how the market enters those zones I might think about taking a long/short position.
Some fun facts:
- Fiat currencies get stronger in market corrections, since people are selling whatever they can for dollars/fiat.
- Approximately HALF the volume on the US equity markets is generated from ...
Pretty self explanatory, shaded areas are where I think price will turn, based on unfilled orders existing right outside those candles.
I'm particularly convinced by Jim Rickards(https://youtu.be/2xDSgOMifo8), who argues that gold will go through a severe re-pricing whenever the relentless expansion of central bank balance sheets overwhelms the low-yield, ...
The USDJPY pair is tracing a strong long term reversal in my opinion, and here we have an opportunity to join the trend with minimal risk. You can go long at market, using the long term stops on chart, close to 101.2, or, take a buy stop order at 104.703 (good for the day), speculating that Kuroda's speech will take care of triggering this daily uptrend, with stop ...
We can enter longs in this pair above Friday's high, which sits slightly above the Brexit key level resistance.
There's a weekly uptrend that triggered recently, so we can expect a massive rally in this pair soon.
This is an update to my previous publication. We now have full confirmation of a weekly uptrend aiming for 110.141 by December 23rd or sooner.
If not long you can buy new daily lows, or dips to 102.8 after this week's close. Jumping in now, is not bad, but not optimal.
This uptrend probably implies that the smart money is getting into new leveraged positions for ...