Hello traders!
Heading into todays European session, risk tone is leaning risk on. Asia pacific indices are positive, measures of volatility subdued and safe havens pressured.
Australian Dollar ( AUD) Fundamental bias - Neutral
1. Country's health and developments.
There are 4 key drivers we are watching for Australia’s med-term outlook: The virus situation...
Based off of our analysis from higher time frames down to the H4 time frame on USDCHF, we can see a clear opportunity for bulls to enter once market opens next week right at the 38.2 level of the fibonacci drawn here. Expect to hold this trade and take profit appropriately at 161.8 level. Also taking a look at the RSI indicator and seeing that we're still closer...
16.5k - 23.5k implied price floor.
Likely to occur by correlation and panic selling as a consequence of the incoming global stock market crash triggered by Evergrande's default on its bonds.
Today we are witnessing a sharp turn around in Emerging Markets $EEM after the Jackson Hole meeting. $IWM a strong indicator of risk tolerance has seen a sharp move back up into it's middle pivot. Could the continued low rate environment and strong economy be enough to continue the rush into risk-on assets? Keep a close eye on $EWZ though (Brazil ETF in which PAGS...
The Fed’s decision.
The U.S. Federal Reserve delivered no surprise during their monetary policy meeting earlier today as widely expected. The Federal Funds Rate was held unchanged at the target range of 0-0.25% while quantitative easing remains at $120 billion per month ($80 billion of Treasury securities and $40 billion of agency mortgage-backed securities).
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Fair confident on this trade, the market sentiment complex looking rather risk on today as volatility is down. Looking at the data front, markets will be eying up ISM manufacturing data in this afternoons session.
Is Bitcoin a good barometer for the broader market? The chart laid out above suggests this is a possibility - and indeed, it would make a lot of sense, considering how risk tends to peak prior to tactical and cyclical corrections in the stock market, and Bitcoin is broadly considered to be a risk asset.
Note how the 2017 macro top in BTC foretold a top in the...
The S&P 500 has broken down to trendline support after a failed breakout at 4240. The SPY index formed a high at 4238 and tried to break it at 4255, but failed to hold above that alltimehigh. It is now testing trendline support, and the question is whether price will bounce here at support or will support fail to hold and thus lead to a much larger...
Outlook
The Fed started raising the fed funds rate beginning in December 2015 but lowered it again in 2019 and 2020.
There are ongoing pressures to keep yields low. Economic uncertainty in the European Union, for example, can keep investors buying traditionally safe U.S. Treasuries. Foreign investors, China, Japan, and oil-producing countries need U.S. dollars to...
CADJPY - Is it time to Fade?
This is a potential trade I am looking to excel further next week - We've been on up trend for while but now is it time to fade?
At this current of time we are within the range of 90.640 - 89.735, a break to either direction. Below the trendline up bears will gain further control 200 ema is a nice area of support zone or we could...
Possible continuation of main trend up in case of a rejection at the zone. However, if we break below we could see it as a trend reversal and start looking for selling opportunities.
AUDUSD - We reached that golden area of 0.80! Then, we faded that area...what's next?
This morning typing this we down half of 1% - Since my year ahead outlook 0.80 is an area I have been eyeing for a while, since we finally reached that target area there will be an update video for the Q2 on what to expect. This will be shared privately via YouTube - If you're...
IH&S pattern broke up the 200 weekly ema. Bond yields will most likely be testing around 1.66% and as long as the markets stay up I think we will enter a blow off top.
I can see 1.66% on the 10 yr or maybe even higher with sp500 making a monster run blow off top to 4200 plus B4 any larger correction.
Weekend events with a new strain of COVID in the UK has increase risk fears.
Cases of UK's highly contagious mutant COVID strain have been detected in returned travellers in Australia increaing fears that we are not winning the battle with COVID worldwide just yet.
AUDUSD room for a bullish run past 0.760 but not quite yet.
Eying short targets of 0.756 0.754 first.
I am anticipating JPY to get strong across the market.
NZDJPY is at good sport to sell as structurally and fundamentally.
Sell on strong price action.
Good luck,
9
Looks like bond yields have gone risk on but the stock market hasn't caught onto this quiet yet. Heavy resistance incoming, break .79 and the bulls will party
