I multiplied the less risky Dow and Spy while dividing it with a multiple of bio, the Russel and Ark. This shows a clear shooting star candle in development this month which should signal much greater future gains in higher risk stocks and an end to this pullback in the market.
You can see that we had nice rallies the last two times that this has happened on...
Junk bonds to US Treasury 7-10 year bonds, a good proxy for risk on/risk off appetite and a good parallel to SPY action. Right now, we are due a risk off pullback, but the longer trend (Gann trend line and Ichimoku cloud) indicate a risk on environment will be soon to follow.
On the weekly chart, price seemed to be breaking down from a channel and then reversed course to move higher. If this is a rubberband reaction and risk-off resumes, then this monthly frame shows a 2nd leg down that could move to 62-58.
Alternatively, if risk-on stays the course to continue January's rise, then price moves up to the 20ma, 96-100 area. Watch daily...
Now that a lot of sell side liquidity targets have been met on this week, I'd like to see it comeback up a bit to rebalance the weekly FVG then drop lower into the Monthly FVG cause it would be healthy for the next expansion to new highs on this cycle, final target 120 with bumps on the roads at the lvl I drawn my pink arrow
Inflation in the US came down last week which allowed stocks finally to rally while US yields and USD came down across the board. Speculators think that FED will slow down the hikes, but further move on some of the FX pairs will now depend on data outside of the US. We have UK and Canadian CPI this week, while the focus will be also on RBA meeting minutes. So...
EURUSD may be used as a liquidity proxy. It has been falling for a long time in a big down channel &
Is now bouncing right at the dotted median line. (4Q is historically bullish going into new year specially on
midterm election years, where markets bottom in late October)
Watch closely if EURUSD will break above parity 1:1 again in a big move. Then most probably...
SSO is a safer 2x leveraged etf of SPX than SPXL. It recently formed slight divergence & a big engulfing candle, probably due to oversold RSI & also short coverings after Thursday’s dump & pump with investors betting massively on both directions triggered by a high CPI report.
Prices may return to the neckline (return to mean) next week.
Not trading advice
Last August 27 I already gave the bearish scenario wherein the FED continues even into a recession. The downsides were 350, 320 & 280 IF SPY breaks below 400 & 380. Today, Friday, SPY seems to be doing an oversold bounce. So let us assume the contrarian role against the market’s extreme pessimism. What if the market sentiment changes & the market suddenly realizes...
DXY D1
With the above being said... 'key global topics' and other comments, we have to understand the market correlation and timeframes... We can take yesterdays D1 close with a pinch of salt, due to inconsistent volume, but lets see where we close after today (hoping support holds).
US based FX and commodities look like they want to be correcting somewhat....
Narrative goes like this:
We'll call this one #MarketMechanics
The plot is very deceiving from the start of the week but not really because I wrote the scripts to this one:)
Knowing the real bias is DOWN today we began this trading week going in the right direction. But to give the traders a little plot twist all of a sudden we go LONG at the bottom of our...
The narrative for next week’s set up goes like this:
There is an objective FACT that certain times oof the year the market does certain things. The market has cycles, seasons… just like Winter, Spring, Summer Fall. At these times things change, similar to the Forex Market.
The Forex Market Moves based on time contrary to what most teach you that buying and...
HTF weekly chart analysis shows that W3 is likely in at my $109.50 target posted 3-4 weeks ago in my group channel & here on TV as well.
The extended 3rd wave is actually structurally perfect. W3 hits the 1.618% fib extension as in most strong bullish momentum charts and forms a bearish hammer top on the weekly showing that the top of wave 3 is likely now in....
Gold H4
Played out exactly as expected after posting yesterdays analysis, would have preferred to see a larger breakout, however, with the DXY break and bullish gold sentiment, I feel this is what we could see today.
Eventual targets of $1900/oz. One step at a time, one high at a time...
We are highly likely to see a strong recovery in the New Zealand Dollar Against the U.S Dollar as interest rates in New Zealand continue to rise.
Markets expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to raise the cash rate to 3.50% by year-end, which will be a premium 0.75% to 1.00% Interest rate over the U.S.
This means any investors holding short positions in NZD/USD...
Russian Ruble tumbling leaving bitcoin as the logical choice to move money for Russians and Russia asset holders.
Bond yields dropping as speculation points to the Fed and ECB postponing rate hikes in the face of a lengthly conflict in Ukraine.
Risk-on is back in the saddle again.
Expect to see consolidation around the 21W EMA as Bitcoin caught a...
![DXY: $DXY [W1] Is testing a broken wedge.](https://s3.tradingview.com/n/Nscy35K2_mid.png "$DXY [W1] Is testing a broken wedge.")
