I multiplied the less risky Dow and Spy while dividing it with a multiple of bio, the Russel and Ark. This shows a clear shooting star candle in development this month which should signal much greater future gains in higher risk stocks and an end to this pullback in the market.
You can see that we had nice rallies the last two times that this has happened on this chart at March 2020 and Feb 2016.
I also noticed some more supporting evidence that this is near the bottom from the dark orange wedge breakout. If you measure the bottom to the peak in 2015-16 you can get an ideal exit target for the wedge breakout. Typically, you would measure from the breakout point, which it hasn't reached at this time, but if you measure from the bottom, you can see that the target has interestingly been reached to an almost exact amount.
We also have the yellow resistance and the peak at March 2020 as a pivot point for all of these lines. Not too critical of a point, I just found that interesting haha.
We also have institutions like black rock capitulating on growth twitter.com/Fxhedger.../1527474863643820034
Many institutions were bearish on the market at the bottom of the covid dip.
Finally we have a heavily overbought RSI and stoch on the monthly that also signals a top.
Now the short term future outlook looks bullish on risk to me but I was thinking on potential long term possibilities from there:
I believe that the yellow trajectory is more likely to happen over the blue one at this point to be honest. The blue option just requires too much competence in all global leaders to pull off so it seems unlikely to me and would be frankly miraculous. But it could still happen.
The yellow one would basically give investors an opportunity to exit growth at more reasonable prices before the market continues its tank fest again. And while I have this pivot point at Jan 2024, it could happen much steeper and faster and pivot later this year.
The yellow support line and the blue breakout line are most important to watch and see what option it'll be.
You can see that we had nice rallies the last two times that this has happened on this chart at March 2020 and Feb 2016.
I also noticed some more supporting evidence that this is near the bottom from the dark orange wedge breakout. If you measure the bottom to the peak in 2015-16 you can get an ideal exit target for the wedge breakout. Typically, you would measure from the breakout point, which it hasn't reached at this time, but if you measure from the bottom, you can see that the target has interestingly been reached to an almost exact amount.
We also have the yellow resistance and the peak at March 2020 as a pivot point for all of these lines. Not too critical of a point, I just found that interesting haha.
We also have institutions like black rock capitulating on growth twitter.com/Fxhedger.../1527474863643820034
Many institutions were bearish on the market at the bottom of the covid dip.
Finally we have a heavily overbought RSI and stoch on the monthly that also signals a top.
Now the short term future outlook looks bullish on risk to me but I was thinking on potential long term possibilities from there:
I believe that the yellow trajectory is more likely to happen over the blue one at this point to be honest. The blue option just requires too much competence in all global leaders to pull off so it seems unlikely to me and would be frankly miraculous. But it could still happen.
The yellow one would basically give investors an opportunity to exit growth at more reasonable prices before the market continues its tank fest again. And while I have this pivot point at Jan 2024, it could happen much steeper and faster and pivot later this year.
The yellow support line and the blue breakout line are most important to watch and see what option it'll be.
Comment:
Another small update for this
So pretty much after posting the previous update, the chart broke back into the channel and continued it's uptrend lol. I then thought that maybe it would get resisted on the red line but it eventually broke that one too. Now I think the next heavy resistance will be the checkered flag area because that is an area of two previous resistance lines close together.
That will correlate with the market starting a new downtrend and more people risk off. I'm hoping that this is the last wave for the bottom but only time will tell.
If both of these resistances get broken then the next target would be the top of the measurement in the middle. I'd bet that this situation would be a very nasty one for everyone except for the kind who get drunk off of seeing the world burn, so hopefully it won't happen.
Later I'll have to hang my star higher now that it has made new highs in this peak.
So pretty much after posting the previous update, the chart broke back into the channel and continued it's uptrend lol. I then thought that maybe it would get resisted on the red line but it eventually broke that one too. Now I think the next heavy resistance will be the checkered flag area because that is an area of two previous resistance lines close together.
That will correlate with the market starting a new downtrend and more people risk off. I'm hoping that this is the last wave for the bottom but only time will tell.
If both of these resistances get broken then the next target would be the top of the measurement in the middle. I'd bet that this situation would be a very nasty one for everyone except for the kind who get drunk off of seeing the world burn, so hopefully it won't happen.
Later I'll have to hang my star higher now that it has made new highs in this peak.
Comment:
Check this out fellas, today it has resisted at the blue line and reached the flag.
We also have a reversal pattern forming in the stoch indicator to watch out for.
If we zoom in a little bit, you can see that so far today we have a candlestick that is looking like a harami cross. This is a reversal candlestick, so I'm watching this one as is develops today too. Hopefully, it won't turn into a hammer because that's not ideal.
Read more about the cross here:
www.investopedia.com...ms/h/haramicross.asp
www.finvids.com/Cand...rish-Harami-Pattern/
The most ideal cross at the close would be a very thin body.
ARKK has been the one to tank the most, so if this chart reverses, it would be sensible to assume that ARKK would be the one that causes the reversal the most.
Tesla is also a large holding in ARKK, so I would expect Tesla to have some kind of bounce from here too. Ironically if you look at Tesla on the daily, it is printing a harami cross bottoming pattern so far, along with an incredibly oversold RSI and a very hated sentiment.
Of course the biggest risk is if the chart starts to break this resistance, then that could possibly lead to an ugly and fast dump in the market, especially in the risk assets, which are already dumped so hard as it is. So don't sleep too easy there bulls.
Check this out fellas, today it has resisted at the blue line and reached the flag.
We also have a reversal pattern forming in the stoch indicator to watch out for.
If we zoom in a little bit, you can see that so far today we have a candlestick that is looking like a harami cross. This is a reversal candlestick, so I'm watching this one as is develops today too. Hopefully, it won't turn into a hammer because that's not ideal.
Read more about the cross here:
www.investopedia.com...ms/h/haramicross.asp
www.finvids.com/Cand...rish-Harami-Pattern/
The most ideal cross at the close would be a very thin body.
ARKK has been the one to tank the most, so if this chart reverses, it would be sensible to assume that ARKK would be the one that causes the reversal the most.
Tesla is also a large holding in ARKK, so I would expect Tesla to have some kind of bounce from here too. Ironically if you look at Tesla on the daily, it is printing a harami cross bottoming pattern so far, along with an incredibly oversold RSI and a very hated sentiment.
Of course the biggest risk is if the chart starts to break this resistance, then that could possibly lead to an ugly and fast dump in the market, especially in the risk assets, which are already dumped so hard as it is. So don't sleep too easy there bulls.
Comment:
Quick update on this:
The risk on resistance line panned out perfectly and made another tree. Now I noticed an interesting support line here in red that would give support to a risk off move in the market. Market just tapped it today from Powell's usual shenanigans.
I'm keeping an eye on this one if it holds as support or breaks and continues it's path down. I personally am betting that it will hold as support and we'll have a bit of a risk off event, but not as bad as the last.
The risk on resistance line panned out perfectly and made another tree. Now I noticed an interesting support line here in red that would give support to a risk off move in the market. Market just tapped it today from Powell's usual shenanigans.
I'm keeping an eye on this one if it holds as support or breaks and continues it's path down. I personally am betting that it will hold as support and we'll have a bit of a risk off event, but not as bad as the last.
Comment:
Just a heads up that I noticed this wedge pattern that could lead to a surprise risk on reversal:
But I've also noticed that these typically bearish wedge patterns have often became strong overshoots in the Jay Biden market, so there is definably that possibility too (orange).
I generally find this market overextended so a rally higher without a good pullback from here would even be a surprise to me.
But I've also noticed that these typically bearish wedge patterns have often became strong overshoots in the Jay Biden market, so there is definably that possibility too (orange).
I generally find this market overextended so a rally higher without a good pullback from here would even be a surprise to me.
Comment:
O Ponzi tree, O Ponzi tree,
How rotten are thy branches!
(Likely some kind of a pullback is coming)
O Ponzi tree, O Ponzi tree,
How rotten are thy branches!
(Likely some kind of a pullback is coming)
You can see that the call for risk on was correct as we had a risk on event till August which became a very nice rally for the bulls and then a risk off event to November.
Now you can notice that the risk off has made a lower high, getting resisted before hitting the yellow line, and has started to break the channel support, signaling to me another potential risk on event and a continued rally in the market. It can be hard to believe that'll be the case with how well the market has rallied already, but I'm just saying that is what this specific chart is telling me. Charts have a mind of their own, I just try to interpret them lol.
It is currently just hitting the channel support, let's see if it can get back into the channel this week, maybe this is just another fake breakdown like the one in mid November?