have been curious about iwm / spx divergence. had considered buying iwm calls.. am going to pass.
will the 'trade deal' save huge american companies? Will China's new presence in global economy cause our next recession? Will our bloated, lazy multi-national corps struggle to innovate?
These are the questions.. Answers likely not too...
Previous significant market top that formed a mini double top and drop looks to be happening again.
Monday we should see another gap down and continued follow-through selling, or at least next week which should create a spike in the vix as shown here: www.thetechnicaltraders.com
Over the past week, my tone has switched a little more bearish. I was advocating for a blow-off top in equities before this cycle ends, however, on a second look at the data the leading indicators are continuing to show weakness over the coming 6 months. Certain aspects of the economic data are positive however, which makes it difficult to be outright bearish or...
Just admit that gold is at resistance and bearish!
The chart speaks for its self.
The Russell 2000 ETF continues to deliver critical technical and longer-term price patterns for skilled technicians. Combining the IWM chart with the Transportation Index, Oil, Gold, and others provide a very clear picture of what to expect in the immediate future.
We have rallied a long way since the lows, markets are not linear and the price will have to digest the move.
What will likely drive the markets higher is earning, a contrarian but realistic outcome when you consider that wage growth is outperforming inflation by almost 3%.
This, of course, would likely lead to a price rally while earnings multiples are falling!
Data out this month show slowing business activity & new orders relative to the prior month, compounded with an unexpected slowdown in wage growth, forecasting a pullback from here with a complete patterns is logic.