XBI (Small Cap Biotech Index) is due for 2 or 3 upwards movements (includes current wave). XBI moves in cycles of 2 or 3 (or 4 when it became overextended) and in between we have a 1, 1 pattern (it takes a break) where it goes up 1 sideways / 1 down, or 1 up / 1 down.
I predict it will complete the upwards 26 period and then go upwards for 1 or 2 more 26 candle...
Here's where the premium was at as of Friday's close:
Broad Market Exchange-Traded Funds With 30-Day Implied >20%:
Comments: I have quite a bit of IWM on here, but my order of preference is broad market, then sector, then single name, so am comfortable with adding if we get both weakness and a pop in volatility. IWM/RUT has been fairly rangebound,...
... for a .37/contract debit.
Comments: In for 1.50/contract (See Post Below), out for .37/contract here; 1.13 ($113) profit per contract with 21 days to go. It's still somewhat weak here, but implied volatility has crushed into sub-35, which is kind of my exchange-traded fund implied volatility cut-off.
Come Monday going to look at a position in XBI (if it has not gone too far). Pulled back and spiked at the Weekly 50% Retracement that matches with prior price action. Stop needs to be just below the low of May 11th.
The industry for this ETF is Biotech. This should make Cathie Wood happy.
... for a 2.17/contract credit.
Notes: 30-day at >35% at 40.1%. Selling the 16 delta here. 1.84% ROC at max as a function of notional risk. As usual, will take profit on approaching worthless or, if in the money at expiry, take assignment and sell call against.
Buy put spreads for April on this name. I think 180/165 put debit 4/19 would do well. XBI is under a lot of pressure, this company has nothing fresh right now, massive head and shoulders.
Get it back in that safe channel
... for a 2.07 credit.
Notes: With 30-day at 39.2% and expiry-specific at 38.7%, selling a little bit of premium in biotech. Will run to approaching worthless/take assignment, sell call against if assigned. 1.68% ROC as a function of notional risk.