Now that a lot of sell side liquidity targets have been met on this week, I'd like to see it comeback up a bit to rebalance the weekly FVG then drop lower into the Monthly FVG cause it would be healthy for the next expansion to new highs on this cycle, final target 120 with bumps on the roads at the lvl I drawn my pink arrow
TSLA price probably making 1 or more 15m bars in the direction of the arrow.
Current riskoff sentiment favors short.
I use technical, fundamental and sentiment research data combined.
Absolute certainty is evil.
Historical rallies regarding the US dollar show an unpreceded rise for high-risk assets, including stocks, which in the past had led to some sort of financial/economic crisis. For sure, always is very difficult to make an accurate forecast in price and in time, but we must not forget the explosion of the tech bubble in the 2000s, the ‘’Great Recession’’ in 2008,...
Based on cycles, markets can experices a lot of fear int eh next pahse.
Stocks are down, but volatility is still relatively low, we need more fear and blood on the stock market before this one can stabilize, when least expected.
Puts are already at the extremes..
Bonds have picked up slightly edging above 115'29. ZN had teetered about this level, breaking below it yesterday, but finding support. We did make a run for the next level at 116'20, but rejected this level, and found support again at 115'20. There is a stronger chance of a 75bps rate hike, which is pushing up yields. If we fall further, then 115'03 is the next target.
Here is a new video update for the SP500 after recent developments and overlap with 3950. We have hawkish FED, inflation, energy crisis, and potential recession which is not good for stocks.
Please give me your feedback in the commentary below. Where you think SP500 will close this year?
With the above being said... 'key global topics' and other comments, we have to understand the market correlation and timeframes... We can take yesterdays D1 close with a pinch of salt, due to inconsistent volume, but lets see where we close after today (hoping support holds).
US based FX and commodities look like they want to be correcting somewhat....
Price has broken the MZ.
You have 35.1 PIP$ to play with.
THE DXY has Broken to fill a GAP at 108.880.
That's all the confluence you need to go Long and cacth some PIP$
Never Over leverage
Trust the SCALP :)
I apologize for my last chart as I did it from a cell phone. Here we can see a clear sign of a Bear Ribbon/Pennant forming to indicate a continued trend. Usually pointing to halfway through a drop.
With the FED finally lowering its balance sheet, China's Economy is now mainstream news, Global Bond Yield surging, S&Ps report on the economy, and it's still getting...
$dxy continues to push off the lows, adding bearish confluence to markets.
dxy is tricky, as it's more macro than markets tend to be.
bullish dxy doesn't inherently mean bearishness for markets, but more so a risk off signal that can take time to reflect in the market itself.
in this case, however, it's running in a pretty close pair.
$BTC has followed the broader bear market rallies without departure from the continued descending channel with the weekly 20 EMA closing in on the 200 EMA and the 50 tightening against the 100 EMA.
Since late October 2021 and the ATH set in November, a clear bearish trend has set up as inflation has ripped, the Federal Reserve has increased rates to what they...
we've plotted US10Y-US02Y against DXY.
we've noticed a near perfect fitting between them.
as yield curve continues to invert, it drives higher DXY and that is bearish for risk assets, and vice versa.
The surge in energy and agricultural commodities in the past 6 months had materialized into serious inflation even down to the consumer end across the globe. To cope with inflation, the Fed has begun to raise rate at an accelerating pace. The rise in the interest rate of the USD causes dysfunction of traditional risk haven such as Japanese Yen FX:USDJPY...
Gold has found support exactly at $1836, one of our levels. We noted in previous reports that gold should find support at $1836 or $1826. From here we saw a pivot back to relative highs in the mid $1800's. Recall that we have a dense cluster of levels in the mid $1800's at $1857, $1857 and $1865. These align with relative lows from early May, and are currently...
Bonds have edged up higher, with ZN hitting our target of 121'00. This is a strong psychological and technical level. We are seeing a bit of a divergence between the price action and the Kovach OBV so unless more momentum comes thorugh, anticipate a dip or some ranging between 120'14 and 121'00. If we dip further, 119'23 should provide support. If we are able...
Played out exactly as expected after posting yesterdays analysis, would have preferred to see a larger breakout, however, with the DXY break and bullish gold sentiment, I feel this is what we could see today.
Eventual targets of $1900/oz. One step at a time, one high at a time...