Though id post as just one example, perhaps the most obvious, that shows how heavily the JPY is considered a risk-off asset and to show the clearly, since the SPX is a risk-on asset, that the JPY is negatively correlated with the SPX. In times of market fear/ uncertainty, YEN is sought out, just like bonds and gold, as a safe heaven asset. The theory behind this...
Finally Gold completes the market risk-off 3 for rallying... we not have JPY, BONDS and GOLD all rallying - this completes the set of 3 -riskoff indicators, we are now in full bear mode for stock markets imo.. as you can tell from the US Treasuries and JPY, these riskoff assets have been gaining value for some time, gold has been lagging behind but today...
The similarities are undeniable, and to be honest I don't think the circumstances are that different either. 7 years of unprecedented printing press activity and ridiculous 'easy money' policy by central banks is a recipe for disaster. The yen is on it's way to becoming totally worthless but ironically 2016 is shaping up for yen strength from a technical...
We have a nice setup here in the bond market, we can look to go long on a break of yesterday's high with stops under the 129 mark ideally. It seems like we can rally forcefully to reach 130'27 in a few days. You can also play this one going long TLT during the US session. If interested in my trading signals, or in personal tuition, contact me privately. I'm...
This ratio gives very timely signals as to when to more optimally switch between risk on or risk off biases. It's clear that we can long gold, bonds and yen now, I'd be careful with equities, at least not going long indexes, or looking for shorts in weaker securities would be my favored approach. I have booked profits on a few profitable long trades, and...
This monthly chart of gold reveals something very interesting. Gold has had a bit of revival this year but the momentum seems to have stalled a bit. The beautiful reversal pattern in the chart though seems very bullish for gold. Sure, it may see a bit of down move to 1200 - 1150. But that would be a massive buying opportunity to ride till 1500 levels. This also...
In this chart I analyze the currently active signals in the JPYUSD chart, as an alternative way of approaching USDJPY to prevent biases. I'm seeing an active 2 week trend, which has until June 27th to complete, but also if you dial down to the 3 day chart, you can see a valid uptrend signal emerging from the recent 'impulsive' leg to the upside. I'm interested in...
The Cable was killed last week as markets rattled on China fears and US Non Farm Payrolls trumped expectations. Pair finished the week below a descending triangle bottom marked by the 2015 lows and looks set to continue lower over the coming weeks. Initial target is the 1.236 extension of April - June 2015 around 1.4240, this extension coincides with the 2011 lows...
The chart shows the currently active bullish setup on the weekly chart, as well as the important support levels below. We should pay attention in the coming days, since I think we will see a retracement soon. As long as we're producing weekly highs every 5 weeks, we're in a strong uptrend, specially while sitting above the weekly mode, from where a 18 week rally...
GBPJPY is offering a significantly interesting short opportunity, the telltale signs are there. If we look closely, we see that price has bounced from the biggest mode in the downtrend since 1991, and could never go back over it. In time at mode terms, we have a very clear weekly downtrend signal, confirmed by rgmov in the daily plotting a new 2 month low. This...
Interesting patterns in the rgmov line and in the price chart make me think this might be a good short opportunity as the last daily time at mode signal's target has been reached, while USDCAD posted a top and didn't make a new high with price today. I'll enter a 0.5% risk short here, the stop is only 53 pips to the next monthly resistance. It's worth a try, if it...
The chart describes an interesting setup. I'll go short now with a small risk of 0.50%, aiming for the targets below. Time at mode signals these areas as potential targets and reversal zones, and there's interesting fibonacci confluence there as well. The fundamental background also suggests it's possible to see this setup pan out. Whatever the outcome of the...
$EURUSD Has broken below the ascending triangle bottom and looks set to break through the Double/Triple Top confirmation level 1.0720 (4h close). Another possibility is a rally off this level and a retest of 1.050 but we think this Triple/Quad Top/Double Bottom scenario is less probable. Look to sell any rallies into the broken triangle bottom or LT channel top.