Kaustubh

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About me http://in.linkedin.com/in/kaustubhshinde/
Last visit Joined 5 years ago @analyzemarkets
Markets Allocation
41 % forex 18 % stocks 14 % indices 27 % other
Top Mentioned Symbols
EURUSD 23% | 12 USDJPY 9% | 5 GLD 7% | 4 SPX 7% | 4
Kaustubh Kaustubh DJI, D, 2 months ago
DJI: Something's got to give
41 0 1
DJI, D
Something's got to give

The DJI and SPX have been picture of clam for last month or so. But other markets are giving some very interesting cues. We could be in for some very interesting movements in a week's time when the Trump inauguration happens. All the details around this would make this post very long. I have the detailed rationale posted at ...

Kaustubh Kaustubh XAUUSD, D, Long , 3 months ago
XAUUSD: Gold primed for a leg up
61 0 6
XAUUSD, D Long
Gold primed for a leg up

See the chart. Gold is good buy right now. Also check out my other posts to see the context and bigger picture

Kaustubh Kaustubh USDJPY, W, Short , 3 months ago
USDJPY: USDPY and Risk on in general
124 0 7
USDJPY, W Short
USDPY and Risk on in general

Trump trade has had a beautiful run so far. No complains. Was needed. It looks to be aging now though. Would be smart to book profits if you are already in there. The honeymoon period would be over when the president-elect becomes the president. Or likely before that. If this holds, naturally, all risk on assets should go down. Spx ( See my recent post) would be ...

Kaustubh Kaustubh SPX, M, Short , 3 months ago
SPX: spx short related post
57 0 3
SPX, M Short
spx short related post

This is just monthly chart relevant to my previous post

Kaustubh Kaustubh SPX, D, Short , 3 months ago
SPX: spx short
39 0 2
SPX, D Short
spx short

I don't know why my previous post didn't go online. Anyways..Second try. My first call on spx failed. You can see that in my history. Having said that the rationale is intact. SPX is overbought like anything in recent history. I am going to link monthly chart to this. So watch out.

Kaustubh Kaustubh SPX, D, Short , 3 months ago
SPX: SP500 short
42 0 2
SPX, D Short
SP500 short

Second call against the grain. When the first failed! Please see the related links at the bottom and writeup in the chart.

Kaustubh Kaustubh SPX, D, Short , 3 months ago
SPX: SPX short
89 0 4
SPX, D Short
SPX short

Nice short set up brewing up here. Double top formation with a tired rally as reflected by divergence in CCI. Also, the Vix is below 12. Not sustainable. Short term target 2190. If sustained, could target 2160

Kaustubh Kaustubh USOIL, W, Long , 5 months ago
USOIL: Oil ready to break out of slumber
43 0 2
USOIL, W Long
Oil ready to break out of slumber

This weekly chart of USOIL is beautiful in its simplicity. With the OPEC finally managing to agree to act in common interest, a strong up move would be fundamentally supported and sustainable too. This should tie up well with the USDJPY idea posted earlier (see related ideas below) and the possible risk on scenario.

Kaustubh Kaustubh USDJPY, W, Long , 5 months ago
USDJPY: USDJPY up move. Start of risk on regime?
94 4 6
USDJPY, W Long
USDJPY up move. Start of risk on regime?

Apart from the commentary in the chart, if this pans out, this would also likely mean a global risk on rally. So we may look forward to strong and sustainable rallies in equities across markets. Yields may go higher for US treasuries. This ties up well with the steady Fed rate hike scenario as well.

Kaustubh Kaustubh USOIL, D, Short , 11 months ago
USOIL: WTI OIL Short
149 1 4
USOIL, D Short
WTI OIL Short

Oil has been trending up but this seems like a time when the tide turns for the short term. The double top is obvious enough and 38.2 retracement at 36 is strong short term target for shorts. The next targets are 32 and 27. The OPEC and Non-OPEC meeting coming Sunday has been a major driver of this rally along with (possibly more) the weakness in commodities in ...

Kaustubh Kaustubh XAUUSD, M, Long , a year ago
XAUUSD: Gold about to regain its luster
56 0 3
XAUUSD, M Long
Gold about to regain its luster

This monthly chart of gold reveals something very interesting. Gold has had a bit of revival this year but the momentum seems to have stalled a bit. The beautiful reversal pattern in the chart though seems very bullish for gold. Sure, it may see a bit of down move to 1200 - 1150. But that would be a massive buying opportunity to ride till 1500 levels. This also ...

Kaustubh Kaustubh SPX500, W, Short , a year ago
SPX500: SPX headwinds
88 0 1
SPX500, W Short
SPX headwinds

A simple comparison of SPX and VIX on weekly chart here. While the VIX index is pushing against the lower support, SPX is seems to be in a very good uptrend, The VIX could and has remained in the lower range for long duration ain the past but dynamics were different back then. Since late 2015 VIX has been very volatile itself and going by the current dynamics, ...

Kaustubh Kaustubh SPX500, D, Short , a year ago
SPX500: SPX Correction
166 4 2
SPX500, D Short
SPX Correction

Expecting SPX to correct to 1950. It sits nicely at 38.2 retracement. A slightly hawkish Fed and a off hand statement or two should do the job. If this pans out, I would also expect similar downward move in oil with USOIL going to 33.5 levels.

Kaustubh Kaustubh USOIL, 240, Long , a year ago
USOIL: WTI OIL
44 0 1
USOIL, 240 Long
WTI OIL

I am expecting the oil rally to continue. However, the time is right for a little pull back to 33.50 levels. This should allow the longs to come back and push it to the first hurdle of 38. A successful break of that resistance should create a passage to 45. And we should see the same pattern in equities too if this plays out.

Kaustubh Kaustubh HSI, M, Long , a year ago
HSI: Hang Seng
74 0 0
HSI, M Long
Hang Seng

If the recent developments in the markets hold and fear dissipates, I think a play on Hang Seng index would be terrific opportunity. To be sure, I am still expecting a slight pull back to around 18500. This index is peculiar in the sense it has some good correlation with China but is not as violent as CSI index. For someone with high risk appetite, this should ...

Kaustubh Kaustubh USOIL, D, Long , a year ago
USOIL: Oil bounce
135 0 3
USOIL, D Long
Oil bounce

We are seeing some bounce in the oil with talks between OPEC countries. This may have some legs to go up to 46

Kaustubh Kaustubh TNX, M, a year ago
TNX: US Treasuries
27 0 1
TNX, M
US Treasuries

This support is significant. If broken, it would probably signal yet another prolonged recession

Kaustubh Kaustubh DXY, M, Short , a year ago
DXY: USD strength to be challenged
32 0 0
DXY, M Short
USD strength to be challenged

The USD has been in uptrend for quite some time given the market volatility and proposed normalization by Fed beginning with the lift off. USD strength has also been an important factor for commodities downtrend. Weakening of USD would be hugely welcome relief for most markets that have been in turmoil since the start of 2016. Please note this is monthly chart so ...

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