This weekly chart of USOIL is beautiful in its simplicity. With the OPEC finally managing to agree to act in common interest, a strong up move would be fundamentally supported and sustainable too. This should tie up well with the USDJPY idea posted earlier (see related ideas below) and the possible risk on scenario.
Apart from the commentary in the chart, if this pans out, this would also likely mean a global risk on rally. So we may look forward to strong and sustainable rallies in equities across markets. Yields may go higher for US treasuries. This ties up well with the steady Fed rate hike scenario as well.
Oil has been trending up but this seems like a time when the tide turns for the short term. The double top is obvious enough and 38.2 retracement at 36 is strong short term target for shorts. The next targets are 32 and 27. The OPEC and Non-OPEC meeting coming Sunday has been a major driver of this rally along with (possibly more) the weakness in commodities in...
This monthly chart of gold reveals something very interesting. Gold has had a bit of revival this year but the momentum seems to have stalled a bit. The beautiful reversal pattern in the chart though seems very bullish for gold. Sure, it may see a bit of down move to 1200 - 1150. But that would be a massive buying opportunity to ride till 1500 levels. This also...
A simple comparison of SPX and VIX on weekly chart here. While the VIX index is pushing against the lower support, SPX is seems to be in a very good uptrend, The VIX could and has remained in the lower range for long duration ain the past but dynamics were different back then. Since late 2015 VIX has been very volatile itself and going by the current dynamics,...
Expecting SPX to correct to 1950. It sits nicely at 38.2 retracement. A slightly hawkish Fed and a off hand statement or two should do the job. If this pans out, I would also expect similar downward move in oil with USOIL going to 33.5 levels.
I am expecting the oil rally to continue. However, the time is right for a little pull back to 33.50 levels. This should allow the longs to come back and push it to the first hurdle of 38. A successful break of that resistance should create a passage to 45. And we should see the same pattern in equities too if this plays out.
If the recent developments in the markets hold and fear dissipates, I think a play on Hang Seng index would be terrific opportunity. To be sure, I am still expecting a slight pull back to around 18500. This index is peculiar in the sense it has some good correlation with China but is not as violent as CSI index. For someone with high risk appetite, this should...
We are seeing some bounce in the oil with talks between OPEC countries. This may have some legs to go up to 46
This support is significant. If broken, it would probably signal yet another prolonged recession
The USD has been in uptrend for quite some time given the market volatility and proposed normalization by Fed beginning with the lift off. USD strength has also been an important factor for commodities downtrend. Weakening of USD would be hugely welcome relief for most markets that have been in turmoil since the start of 2016. Please note this is monthly chart so...
The chart explains it. The break, if sustained, should follow through to 1.05 This pattern also means continuation of trend and a move down to 38.2% extension to parity is likely.
The pennant on the chart is on the verge of a break. Proceed with caution as one needs to wait for the confirmation yet. But the price action and the fundamental factors/ economic noise around looks ripe to push this above. If confirmed, we should see a good rally towards 100 level. Implications: Commodities will suffer (Read: oil and gold) Fed hike will be...
The momentum is clearly dying down. With the divergence in stochastics and upcoming headwinds, a correction to 38.2% at 18200 sounds probable. Not a short call yet though.
Interesting chart for GBPUSD. Simple analysis really. If the break is confirmed at 1.5850, I'd be very willing to go long with 1.6300 target
The chart explains it. Good level currently. Can't speak for the trend yet but a rise back up to 1.11 in order
The breathtaking rise in dollar index is in need for a breather. While the down move is already in progress, I would expect a bounce back from 92.5 before the resumption of correction to 88.5