AgentSmith

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About me FX Swing Trader, Web Developer, Philosopher, Rock Climber, Music Lover, Games Enthusiast
Joined Johannesburg, South Africa Trendz
Risk off themes continue..
Markets Allocation
90 % forex 7 % indices 3 % other
Top Mentioned Symbols
EURUSD 13% | 4 NZDCAD 6% | 2 GBPJPY 6% | 2 NZDJPY 6% | 2
AgentSmith AgentSmith USDCHF, W, Long ,
USDCHF: USCHF breakout on the weekly?
22 0 2
USDCHF, W Long
USCHF breakout on the weekly?

Swissie is effectively at the same level it was 2 years ago before the SNB dropped it's peg. Despite the volatility from that fallout price action has remained quite muted. I'm hoping to see a sustained breakout to the upside on the back of the strong dollar. Parallel channel lines fit nicely, so the potential is there. We'll need to see a weekly close above ...

AgentSmith AgentSmith USDCHF, W, Long ,
USDCHF: Swissie ready to break out of trading range?
37 0 2
USDCHF, W Long
Swissie ready to break out of trading range?

USDCHF continues to trade sideways for 2016. We've just had the US elections. Will this be a catalyst for a breakout of some quite frankly boring trading? (if you're a trend trader). I still maintain that we should see higher prices to come in the longer term. Whether that will happen now or perhaps the start of 2017 is anyone's guess..

AgentSmith AgentSmith NZDJPY, W, Short ,
NZDJPY: NzdJpy pattern looking awfully similar to the 2008 GFC
20 0 1
NZDJPY, W Short
NzdJpy pattern looking awfully similar to the 2008 GFC

The similarities are undeniable, and to be honest I don't think the circumstances are that different either. 7 years of unprecedented printing press activity and ridiculous 'easy money' policy by central banks is a recipe for disaster. The yen is on it's way to becoming totally worthless but ironically 2016 is shaping up for yen strength from a technical ...

AgentSmith AgentSmith GBPUSD, M,
GBPUSD: Cable consolidation nearing cycle end
310 3 6
GBPUSD, M
Cable consolidation nearing cycle end

Dollar and pound remain evenly matched and have been more or less consolidating over the last 6 or so years. Something has to to give. I anticipate cable to continue consolidating over the course of 2016 providing opportunities for those more accustomed to range trading. I prefer trending markets and will look to pick up the pound around the 1.45/46 area as it ...

AgentSmith AgentSmith CADJPY, D, Short ,
CADJPY: CadJpy looking ripe to rollover
31 2 1
CADJPY, D Short
CadJpy looking ripe to rollover

Massive head and shoulders pattern has broken down and we are now testing the neckline turned resistance. Excellent opportunity IMO to short here with a downside target equal to the heads decline into the neck. Looking for +- 79.50

AgentSmith AgentSmith AUDCAD, W, Short ,
AUDCAD: Approaching major support on AUDCAD
53 0 2
AUDCAD, W Short
Approaching major support on AUDCAD

I have been frustratingly short this pair around 2 months now and eating the negative carry. As you can see this is a weekly chart and as a swing trader over the last 2 years I've been learning the value of patience. The potential for an aggressive move to the downside here is good, although IMO this pair tends to be very choppy.. so maybe an ideal trade to learn ...

AgentSmith AgentSmith EURUSD, D, Long ,
EURUSD: A medium term view on EURUSD
727 6 9
EURUSD, D Long
A medium term view on EURUSD

Again, not a huge fan of this pair as it always seems to outsmart me, however, I'm having a lot of fun back testing ideas and extrapolating from previous price action so I'll give it another punt. I still believe Fiber will hit parity (as can be seen in the chart) however momentum indicators are currently very oversold and retail trader sentiment is still heavily ...

AgentSmith AgentSmith EURUSD, 240, Short ,
EURUSD: EuroDollar rangebound?
199 0 7
EURUSD, 240 Short
EuroDollar rangebound?

I'm always suspicious of these large impulsive moves that occur. Certainly you could have made a lot of money in the last couple of days if you were nimble. I don't trade that heavily on the majors as I find the price movements quite difficult to read so take this forecast with a pinch of salt. With all the developments happening in Greece I'm anticipating some ...

AgentSmith AgentSmith USDZAR, D, Long ,
USDZAR: Expecting some chop here on dollar/rand
24 0 2
USDZAR, D Long
Expecting some chop here on dollar/rand

The dollar is taking some heat on the majors and I anticipate it continuing in the short term. This should help the rand only marginally as the trend is clearly still in place. Looking for a base in the 11.5 area to go long.

AgentSmith AgentSmith AUDNZD, 240, Short ,
AUDNZD: Traders taking profits
25 0 1
AUDNZD, 240 Short
Traders taking profits

Short on AUDNZD for the immediate future. Looking to cover in the 1.06 area.

AgentSmith AgentSmith EURNZD, 240, Long ,
EURNZD: Stick with the trend
24 0 1
EURNZD, 240 Long
Stick with the trend

Expecting a continued rally in EURNZD over the next 2 weeks into the 1.60 handle. 800 - 1000 pips on offer

AgentSmith AgentSmith GBPJPY, W,
GBPJPY: Taking the long perspective on Pound Yen
51 3 2
GBPJPY, W
Taking the long perspective on Pound Yen

This pair has run hard. Given that major indices around the world are looking particularly heavy, risk aversion should be at the forefront of traders minds. It seems likely that this is an area for a significant pullback into the 159.20 handle, according to my EQT support and resistance system. I wont be shorting this pair considering how strong it's been and the ...

AgentSmith AgentSmith EURUSD, 240, Long ,
EURUSD: Euro to recover some losses before turning bearish again
109 4 2
EURUSD, 240 Long
Euro to recover some losses before turning bearish again

Euro is looking a little overextended to me. The bigger picture is still bearish IMO but a healthy retrace is due. The gap at the start of 2015 needs to be closed and the weekly support now turned resistance is in the 1.2040 area. I am looking to initiate longs in the 1.1340 area for a +-700 pip rally

AgentSmith AgentSmith EURNZD, D, Long ,
EURNZD: Kiwi hedge with the Euro
91 2 1
EURNZD, D Long
Kiwi hedge with the Euro

I have a number of NZD longs currently in play (vs CAD and GBP) and this trade is an offset to that somewhat heavy exposure. Opened a long position at trendline support and the .764 fibonacci level @ 1.5035. Daily wick is looking good (currently) at forming a very positive hammer candle. I'm hoping for a 2-3 week trade into trendline resistance and confluence ...

AgentSmith AgentSmith NZDCAD, D, Long ,
NZDCAD: Choppy kiwi longs update
38 0 1
NZDCAD, D Long
Choppy kiwi longs update

Price is moving as expected despite the false break of support in the .9125 area. My stops were however well below the lows. We are approaching a breakout to the upside again. My new target for profit taking is slightly below the previous estimate at .9725 given the volatility of the pullback. Will look to add longs on a daily close above .9430

AgentSmith AgentSmith NZDCAD, W, Long ,
NZDCAD: Choppy kiwi longs
288 1 2
NZDCAD, W Long
Choppy kiwi longs

Historical price action has been quite consistent and I see no reason otherwise for this to change at this time. Upside break of the weekly triangle should result in a re-test of resistance now turned support in which to initiate longs. I have longs at 0.8888 and at the aforementioned 0.9150 with a potential target of 0.9840. In both previous cases a nice 700 pip ...

AgentSmith AgentSmith EURUSD, D, Long ,
EURUSD: Euro to start trending?
524 1 3
EURUSD, D Long
Euro to start trending?

EU has been a relatively rubbish trade over the past year if you were looking for some trends. This sideways action has to break sooner or later. I prefer a play to the upside in line with the higher highs, higher lows and the trend line indicated.

AgentSmith AgentSmith USDJPY, W,
USDJPY: UJ weak longs to be cleared?
42 0 1
USDJPY, W
UJ weak longs to be cleared?

UJ is a really tricky customer. There seems to be quite a bit of long sentiment at this level which leads me to believe there is further weakness to come. I propose we are in the descending 4th wave of an ascending triangle with a downside target of +- 99.50, before the final 5th wave begins and takes us into the 108 handle. I would not be surprised if we get an ...

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