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ridethepig | EURCHF Market Commentary 2020.01.16A good time to update the daily chart in EURCHF with Euro starting to trade firmer on the crosses and the CHF run beginning to show signs of unwinding. The 1.074x is starting to look very weak and will give way to sweep all the way down towards 1.062x, here looking to increase exposure; should we visit 1.080x I will not hesitate to increase sizings. For those tracking the Long-term macro chart we remain in the same updated map: Currency manipulation is once again a hot topic with US putting China back on the 'nice' list, smelling SNB to become the next deer in the headlights as CHF inflows are impressive and I believe sharp money is going to test the limits. Good luck those in EURCHF - an advanced chart for the move towards 1.06xx.
Short
by ridethepig
ridethepig | EURCHF Market Commentary 2020.15.01CHF a clear winner in the G10 space has been a finding strong bid via smart money smelling the markets strength of conviction in the SNB ability to intervene decreasing. Positioning is far from stretched, meaning there is plenty of room left on the boat. For those tracking the USDCHF flows 0.970x remains the key level to track: The technical picture is clearer in EURCHF in my books, a clean breakdown in play with eyes on the C leg completing at 1.06xx. I have switched to the sell side after the recent breakdown and actively adding shorts in the 1.08xx handle. The 1.06xx handle will become very attractive for longs next month... good luck all trading the selloff into end of Jan.
Short
by ridethepig
USD/CHF: Swissy Analysis : FOMC meeting and SNB playing rolesUSD/CHF is currently trading a key weekly level around 0.98400 - 0.98700 zones. This weekly support { purple line } has been rejected several times in the past, with the pair bouncing around 130 pips each upside movement. The daily candle isn't showing any prime entry point, therefore we expect this pair to stay neutral until FOMC meeting today and SNB meeting on tomorrow Thursday. Traders should take this trade with the consideration that the level gets rejected or broken. A closure below 0.98400 can send the Swissy back to the next support at 0.9800 or close to our Green line.
by Shourov_kk
ridethepig | CHF Market Commentary 2019.11.28USDCHF still caught in the tight range, patience and flexibility important here, range bound 1.002x - 0.984x with both parameters significant now, it looks like being a roller-coaster into year-end. EURCHF very strong support 1.093x - more inclined to buy dips and play from the long side. I still favour upside EURCHF but as people still cutting longs we are unlikely to progress significantly higher in short term. We are right back to our previous entry point and tracking exactly the same flows ... and by now I know all following here will know what to do at key resistance: Remember, we can comfortably lean on the long-term chart: and for those with a background in waves - we got stuck in severe chop within the same sequence: With two sides to the theme we are trading the large macro flows from widespread USD devaluation as a main course dinner, while CHF outflows are likely via "orderly Brexit resolution" which will go on to act as desert. Remember CHF is the lowest yielder in G10 FX, it's been mainly used as a funding currency for carry trades, if risk ticks high in 2020 we are going to have a textbook zig-zag in play. So the initial 'zig' (as seen above) coming from front-loaded USD devaluation into year-end/Jan, followed by decent CHF profit taking in February as those who used CHF to hedge Brexit begin to unwind. The major waterfall looks only to continue with momentum via US election risk and Brexit after the fact impacts (the kind you cannot heal from a political poll in the Times). In any case, thanks all for keeping the likes and support rolling. As usual jump in the comments with your ideas and charts !!
Short
by ridethepig
5
AUDCHF- Shorts Favoured after SNB keeps rates on hold!While other central banks are easing, the SNB keepT rates on hold, reiterating Swiss Franc remains overvalued, Adjusting the basis for calculating negative interest. The reaction has been a consolidated push higher for the CHF and we like selling AUDCHF on the back of this news since all big banks in Australia are now expecting the RBA to cut rates at the next meeting. We like short position in AUDCHF looking for 6660 initially.
Short
by Sam_Eder
1
USDCHF Important updates for bullsHere we are once again looking at the 5th and final wave in the uptrend meaning it's time to add more exposure on dollar longs once more, we are in the beginning of an impulse wave. The support line will come into play on the technical side and we are set to mark the turning point and kick start flows till the end of summer. Let's track the charts closely, we have launched a smaller TF chart for those here who are trading the H1 initial part of this move as usual and I have attached the weekly charts too for those who are interested in the macro moves. Best of luck
Long
by ridethepig
6
SNB - Central Bank Canary in the Coal Mine exits to the shortAt long last, one of our most important Canaries in the Coal Mine - the Swiss National Bank - has exited a lengthy consolidation pattern to the downside. Frankly, we are surprised it lasted this long given its exposure to long US mega-cap. Whatever is going on in there, it needs to take out 5400 on the upside to nullify today's short signal using the simple www.40in20out.com trend trading approach. (For what it's worth, for some reason our PineScript does not work on the delayed quotes on this exchange. We continue to investigate.)
SIX:SNBNShort
by 40in20out
EURCHF MAJOR ZONENot really a call therefore i put this idea as educational. The EURCHF seems to be at a very important resistance where the major sell off occurred at the end of 2014-15. There seems to be a lot of news indicating that the CHF will weaken further due to the negative interest rates and the SNB allowing the further depreciation of their currency - but in my opinion the TA will tell - on the higher time frames i think we should look for a divergence and couple it with the upcoming chf news this week for a SELL . A major opportunity with low risk compared to the reward and if we're wrong.... oh well. I think the euro will go back to the zone... no doubt , but just not yet.
by RickyChand
1
2018 Macro Outlook - EURCHF Bearish BiasWe have a rather bullish meeting minutes from the European Central Bank (ECB) last week, but as long as ECB maintains its easing policies, upside on the Euro may be limited. Combining with the technical aspects on the chart, we are seeing an ending diagonal structure forming, with a divergence on RSI as well. Adding on, we do see price hit the minimum expected areas based on fibonacci extension between 100% - 123.6% too. These reasons provided me the conviction in looking for a longer term trade to the downside on this pair. I will be following up and tracking this thread regularly throughout the year. Make sure you follow this idea to get notified whenever there is an update on this idea. Have a great trading year ahead!
Short
by KarYong
2
2018 Macro Outlook - USDCHF Bullish BiasBased on the macro and fundamental analysis of the US Dollar, I'm personally holding a bullish bias for 2018/19. Price may not rally straight from here, but I would rather look for buy opportunity for the longer term, and would be more aggressive in taking profit for any short trades. I will be following up and tracking this thread regularly throughout the year. Make sure you follow this idea to get notified whenever there is an update on this idea. Have a great trading year ahead!
Long
by KarYong
6