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SPX (S&P 500 Index)

4H Long Term $SPY Wyckoff Distribution StructureThis idea is an updated and more simplified chart to show current structure that has build out on the 4H chart from the multi-timeframed chart I had in a previous idea - As the title states, we have a Wyckoff distribution method/pattern in play here on the chart. So far the set up and pattern has been pretty on-point if you take a look and analyze Wyckoff Methods from www.wyckoffanalytics.com . I don't have a ton of additional analysis to add here. I am only analyzing the chart and indicators I have. However, I'd love to hear some additional feedback for contrasting opinions or agreeing opinions for some confluence. I'll add that two weeks later from the original idea, the structure, important support / resistance zones, and volume at those areas in the structure strengthens my opinions on validity of what is forming here. This is still too early in the pattern / structure to play any moves based solely on this idea. In my opinion we are likely in the latter half of Phase B and this will take some patience to play out if you find conviction in it. I am being patient and playing what the market gives me on an intra-day and intra-week basis while keeping this chart in the back of my mind. I'm still early in my trading and TA journey (began January of this year) and I'm still learning but I thought I'd share an idea with the TV community that I have been keeping my eye on and trying to learn more about. Thanks for your time and as stated in my other idea, it is always great to hear feedback for contrasting opinions or agreeing opinions for some confluence.
AMEX:SPY
by ExtraGuacAM
Long Term Wyckoff Distribution In-PlayAs the title states, we have a Wyckoff distribution method/pattern in play here on the chart. So far the set up and pattern has been pretty on-point if you take a look and analyze Wyckoff Methods from www.wyckoffanalytics.com . I don't have a ton of additional analysis to add here. I am only analyzing the chart and indicators I have. However, I'd love to hear some additional feedback for contrasting opinions or agreeing opinions for some confluence. Have a great day TV gang and I hope you have a great December.
AMEX:SPYShort
by ExtraGuacAM
$SPY & $SPX Scenarios — Thursday, Dec 18, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY & SP:SPX Scenarios — Thursday, Dec 18, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines • 🚨 CPI Day — inflation is back in focus with November CPI and Core CPI printing together. This is the primary macro catalyst for rates, equities, and the dollar. • 📉 Labor cooling check: Jobless claims add confirmation or pushback to the disinflation narrative. • 🏭 Regional growth signal: Philly Fed survey gives a real-time read on manufacturing momentum into year-end. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) 8 30 AM — Major Inflation Print • Consumer Price Index, CPI (Nov): 0.3 percent • CPI Year over Year: 3.1 percent • Core CPI (Nov): 0.3 percent • Core CPI Year over Year: 3.0 percent • Initial Jobless Claims (Dec 13): 225,000 • Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Dec): 3.6 ⚠️ Disclaimer: For informational use only — not financial advice. 📌 #SPY #SPX #CPI #inflation #macro #rates #markets #trading #stocks
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
S&P Futures Trading Day 83 — Riding the Trendline: Bearish ThesiEnded the day +$250 trading S&P Futures. Today was a textbook session where the morning analysis played out perfectly. My bearish thesis was strong right out of the gate, based on the price being under the trendline and confirming the bearish market structure. I opened my short positions at the open and set a crucial batch of orders at the 2-hour MOB. The market played out exactly as anticipated, delivering a clean profit day. It's always satisfying when the planning, structure, and execution align this well. 📰 News Highlights *DOW, S&P 500, NASDAQ END LOWER AS TECH STOCKS TUMBLE AHEAD OF JOBS REPORT 🔔 VX Algo Signals 9:30 AM — MES Market Structure flipped bearish (X3) (Assuming Yes, aligning with thesis) ✅ 10:00 AM — VXAlgo NQ X3DP Buy Signal (Assuming No, as it's a Buy signal in a Bearish Market) Yes 1:30 PM — VXAlgo ES X1 Oversold signal (Assuming Yes, marking the low) ✅ 🔑 Key Levels for Tomorrow Above 6925 = Bullish Below 6900 = Bearish
CME_MINI:ES1!
by DiYWALLST
1
ES (SPX, SPY) Analysis, Key Zones, Setups for Wed (Dec 17th)Market Update: ES Faces Critical Decision Point The ES market is currently navigating a narrow “decision pocket” between 6850 and 6865, following a significant selloff and a subsequent bounce that has yet to establish a definitive trend. The situation is clear: buyers must defend the lower range of 6834 to 6817 to maintain market stability within this range. Conversely, sellers are focusing on the upper threshold between 6880 and 6892. With the Consumer Price Index report scheduled for release on Thursday morning, traders are likely to become more reactive, potentially taking profits swiftly and responding sensitively to any news regarding interest rates. What can move ES tomorrow (high-impact catalysts, ET) 7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications - usually a modest mover, but it can nudge rates early. 8:15 Fed Governor Waller (Economic Outlook) - big rates sensitivity; ES can whip on any change in tone. 9:05 NY Fed President Williams - opening remarks at an NY Fed conference; still headline-capable. 10:30 EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report - can move crude and inflation expectations, which can leak into ES. 11:00 Treasury buyback details (eligible bonds list) - rates pulse risk. 1:00 20Y Treasury auction (competitive bids) - one of the bigger intraday “rates steering wheel” moments. 1:40-2:00 Treasury buyback operation window - can add another yields swing in the early afternoon. Macro and News Themes to Watch Ahead of Tomorrow’s Market In the current environment, interest rates are proving to be the primary driver of market dynamics. Any increase in long-term yields exerts downward pressure on the equity markets, particularly when key indices like the S&P 500 are hovering near critical resistance levels. The Federal Reserve's messaging remains notably inconsistent. While some officials are emphasizing the importance of maintaining inflation credibility and adopting a cautious stance towards future rate cuts, others suggest that monetary policy is already positioned effectively and anticipate a gradual cooling of inflation. This divergence creates a volatile atmosphere, leading to heightened market reactions surrounding Fed speeches. On the geopolitical front, oil prices are responding to ongoing developments, particularly concerning Venezuela, which has raised supply-risk concerns. This uptick in crude prices has the potential to reinforce inflation narratives and influence equity market sentiment. Additionally, the looming Bank of Japan (BOJ) meeting, where a rate hike is expected, adds another layer of complexity. Even ahead of this anticipated move, shifts in foreign exchange and global rates could significantly impact U.S. index futures and overall market positioning. Overnight NY Market Forecast Base Case Scenario: The market is expected to trade within a range of 6832.75 to 6880.50. Watch for potential retracements towards the 6849.00-6849.75 level, which appears to be a pivotal support point. Bullish Scenario: Should the index manage to sustain a position above 6880.50, a decisive break above 6892.00 would likely drive prices towards 6936.25, a key resistance level. Bearish Scenario: Conversely, a confirmed drop below 6817.50 would pave the way for a test of 6800.00 initially. If sellers maintain their grip on the market, further declines to 6767.75 and 6733.75 may follow. A++ Setup 1 (Rejection Fade short from the upper shelf) Entry: 6887.00-6891.75 Hard SL: 6896.25 TP1: 6863.50 TP2: 6849.75 TP3: 6834.50 A++ Setup 2 (Acceptance Continuation short under PDL) Entry: 6814.50-6817.25 Hard SL: 6823.75 TP1: 6800.00 TP2: 6767.75 TP3: 6733.75 Good Luck !!!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
1
$SPY & $SPX Scenarios — Wednesday, Dec 17, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY & SP:SPX Scenarios — Wednesday, Dec 17, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines • Very light macro day: No major inflation, labor, or growth data scheduled. • Post-data digestion: Markets continue to digest Tuesday’s delayed jobs, retail sales, and PMI releases. • Fed speakers are secondary: With CPI and employment already out, commentary matters only if tone shifts meaningfully. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) • No top-tier economic data scheduled ⚠️ Disclaimer: For informational use only — not financial advice. 📌 #SPY #SPX #markets #trading #macro #stocks
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
S&P500 Will it have a big correction in 2026 back to 5500?The S&500 (SPX) has been trading within a massive 16-year Channel Up since the 2008 U.S. Housing Crisis. Within this pattern it has been repeating various shorter fractals as you can see on this chart it is one that truly stands out. That's the necessity of the market to correct back to its 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) every time it reaches a Top after an exhaustion rally. With the 1W RSI on a Lower Highs Bearish Divergence (against the price's Higher Highs), there is no better time to consider a market top, thus a strong correction, especially after such a non-stop exhaustion rally since the April 2025 Low. Based on the 1W MA200 trajectory, we make a fair estimate that contact can be achieved around the 5500 level, which will be our next long-term buy on stocks. Alternatively, if the 1W RSI approaches the 30.00 oversold level, without the index touching 5500, it will be a good idea to Buy regardless of the price. --- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** --- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPXShort
by TradingShot
ES (SPX, SPY) Analyses, Key Levels, Setups for Tue (Dec 16th) As we head into Tuesday, ES is showing signs of structural weakness following a significant sell-off, culminating in a late dip into the 6845-6840 demand zone. The prevailing trend appears to be downward as long as prices remain beneath the resistance range of 6863-6874. However, the 6845-6840 support still has the potential to trigger a rebound. Traders should anticipate the most decisive price action around major data releases, followed by a phased, level-to-level approach in trading strategy. EVENTS THAT CAN MOVE ES (ET) 2:00am UK labor data 3:15am-5:00am Eurozone PMI batch + ZEW sentiment window 8:30am US jobs data bundle + Retail Sales + Earnings + Unemployment 9:45am US Flash PMI 10:00am Business Inventories 4:30pm API oil stats (can hit energy tone into the close) Market Outlook: NY Session Forecast In the upcoming New York trading session, we anticipate a period of consolidation likely to include a modest rebound attempt. However, this upside movement is expected to face resistance within the range of 6859 and 6863-6874. Should sellers maintain pressure and keep prices below 6863 as we head into the session, we could see a subsequent pullback towards the 6845-6840 range, followed by a potential drop to 6825. On the bullish side, if the market can decisively reclaim and sustain levels above 6874, we might open the door for a rally towards 6902 and possibly 6923. Conversely, a clear breach below 6840 that lacks immediate recovery signals strengthens the bearish outlook, targeting 6825 initially, with the potential for a further decline to 6800-6790. ES Short (A++) - Sell 6863-6874 - SL 6876.50 - TP1 6845-6840 TP2 6825 TP3 6800-6790 Key zones Support - 6845-6840, 6825, 6800-6790 Resistance - 6851-6859, 6863-6874, 6902, 6923-6936 A++ Setup 1 - Short (ceiling fade) Entry - Sell 6863-6866 after a rejection from 6863-6874 Stop - 6876.50 (above the rejection high) TP1 - 6845-6840 TP2 - 6825 TP3 - 6800-6790 ES Long (A++) - Buy 6825 reclaim - SL 6814.25 - TP1 6863 TP2 6902 TP3 6923 A++ Setup 2 - Long (flush then reclaim) Entry - Buy 6825-6828 only after price reclaims and holds above 6825 Stop - 6814.25 (below the flush low) TP1 - 6863 TP2 - 6902 TP3 - 6923 Good Luck !!!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
2
$SPY & $SPX Scenarios — Tuesday, Dec 16, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY & SP:SPX Scenarios — Tuesday, Dec 16, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines • Delayed jobs + retail combo: Backlogged payrolls and retail sales hit together, shaping growth and soft-landing narratives. • Wages in focus: Hourly earnings and YoY wages matter for inflation stickiness after last week’s Fed messaging. • Flash PMIs: Real-time read on December activity for services and manufacturing. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) 8 30 AM • U.S. Employment Report (Nov, delayed): 45,000 • U.S. Unemployment Rate (Nov): 4.5 percent • U.S. Hourly Wages (Nov): 0.3 percent • Hourly Wages YoY: 3.6 percent • U.S. Retail Sales (Oct, delayed): 0.1 percent • Retail Sales minus autos (Oct): 0.2 percent 9 45 AM • S and P Flash U.S. Services PMI (Dec): 54.0 • S and P Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI (Dec): 52.5 10 00 AM • Business Inventories (Sept): 0.1 percent ⚠️ Disclaimer: For informational use only — not financial advice. 📌 #SPY #SPX #jobs #retailsales #PMI #macro #markets #trading
AMEX:SPY
by TrendTao
SPX: AI-valuation worries, just temporary?The FOMC week is usually the one followed by higher volatility, as investors' “nervousness” increases. The S&P 500 reached its highest level on Thursday at 6.903, however, tumbled down by more than 1% at Friday's trading session, closing the week at 6.827. Softening in AI valuations was one of the main drivers behind the drop. Oracle (ORCL) posted its quarterly earnings, right after the FOMC decision, which was indeed interesting timing for posting results. The company reported higher capital expenditures and delays in key AI-data center projects, which rattled confidence in the near-term profitability. This slump was also reflected to the other companies in the tech sector. Broadcom (AVGO) shares declined around 8% on guidance signaling margin pressure as AI-related product mix grows. While revenue outlook remains strong, investors focused on thinner future profit margins amid rising sales of custom AI systems, fuelling concerns about valuations in AI hardware. Market favorite Nvidia (NVDA) also softened on AI valuation worries, with modest declines as traders reassessed demand and capex expectations under current macro conditions. At this moment the market sentiment is showing some rotation out of high-growth AI names into other sectors such as value and cyclical segments. Still, analysts from UBS believe that the equity rally still has room to run, potentially extending for another year. UBS is projecting that the S&P 500 could climb to 7,700 by the end of 2026, with the so-called Magnificent Seven once again playing a central role in driving gains, according to a note from UBS posted on Friday.
SP:SPX
by XBTFX
ES (SPX, SPY) Week-Ahead Analysis (Dec 15-19, 2025)Market Overview: The Week Ahead This week marks a pivotal moment for the markets as focus shifts from narratives to hard data. Key economic indicators will be released, including U.S. jobs figures on Tuesday and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Thursday, both scheduled for 8:30 AM ET. Additionally, the Bank of Japan will convene on December 18-19, with a consensus anticipating a 25 basis point hike, bringing rates up to 0.75%. In a week filled with significant releases, we often see market behavior akin to a compressed spring - characterized by volatility as traders await fresh data, followed by a rapid price adjustment once new information emerges. Historically, the most lucrative trading opportunities materialize at the edges of established price ranges, rather than in the middle. Technical Analysis: Trading Structure Weekly Outlook The broader market structure remains constructive, although current trading suggests we may be nearing what appears to be a “ceiling zone” following a recent advance. This level could facilitate rapid upside movements, albeit sustained acceptance is proving more challenging. Notably, momentum is easing rather than collapsing. Daily Perspective The daily market profile indicates a potential recovery phase following significant liquidation. Buyers seem to be regrouping to establish a solid base, while sellers are actively defending against upside pressures. This dynamic often results in pronounced intra-day fluctuations but tends to exhibit limited follow-through absent a triggering catalyst. 4-Hour Analysis Recent trading patterns align with a classic sequence: an initial impulse downward followed by a corrective consolidation. In such market conditions, rallies hitting resistance levels are often mere tests rather than true breakouts until prices can convincingly maintain levels above key ceilings. On an intraday basis, the market is currently in a tight range above the Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP), frequently encountering resistance at the same overhead levels. This setup typically leads to one of two outcomes: either a pop-and-fail at resistance which presents a clear short opportunity or a flush-and-reclaim at support offering a viable entry for longs. Investors should remain alert for market responses to the upcoming economic data, as this will likely set the tone for price movements in the days ahead. Risk Pricing Analysis: Current Market Sentiment As we assess the current market landscape, it's clear that we are not in a state of panic; however, there are signs that market participants are pricing for potential tail risks. The VIX spot index stands at 15.74 as of December 12, indicating a moderate level of volatility expectations. Similarly, the MOVE index, which measures the volatility of interest rates, is at 69.25 on the same date, reflecting some instability in that realm. In credit markets, we see a High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread (OAS) of 2.88 on December 11, suggesting that conditions remain orderly despite the slight increase in risk premiums. Notably, the SKEW index is currently at 153.59, indicating that crash insurance is priced considerably rich compared to historical norms, signaling investor concerns about downside risk. The put/call ratio is at 0.91 with a 10-day moving average of 0.86, which does not indicate extreme levels of fear among traders. Additionally, market breadth reflects a somewhat subdued environment, with 221 advancing stocks versus 280 declining stocks on December 12. While this does not signify outright capitulation, it suggests that overall market strength is lacking. In summary, the prevailing market conditions appear to favor sharp reactions to new catalysts, with the expectation of mean-reversion unless volatility in credit and rates begins to escalate. The catalyst calendar that can flip the trend Tuesday Dec 16 - 08:30 ET US Employment Situation for November is scheduled for release. Thursday Dec 18 - 08:30 ET US CPI for November is scheduled for release, plus Real Earnings. Important nuance for this CPI Because of the 2025 lapse in appropriations, the CPI release has documented limitations (missing October data prevents some 1-month changes from being published). That can widen the interpretation range and produce bigger price swings than a normal CPI day. Thursday Dec 18 (global central banks) • BoE is widely expected to cut 25 bp to 3.75%. • ECB is expected to hold the deposit rate at 2% next week. BOJ Dec 18-19 Baseline expectation is a 25 bp hike from 0.50% to 0.75%, with guidance as the bigger lever. **Why the Bank of Japan Influences U.S. Stocks: An Analytical Perspective** The Bank of Japan (BOJ) functions as a global “funding thermostat.” When its monetary policy is anchored near zero, it indirectly fosters a stable environment for risk assets globally, as funding remains inexpensive and reliable. Conversely, tightening measures from the BOJ can ripple through financial markets, impacting not only Japan but also the broader global financial system. Here’s a breakdown of how BOJ actions affect U.S. stock indices: 1. Yen Channel (Risk Appetite): A rate hike or hawkish signals from the BOJ typically strengthen the Japanese yen. A stronger yen can compel investors to trim risk exposure in their portfolios, especially in positions sensitive to foreign exchange fluctuations and funding costs. This de-risking effect often hits high-beta equities first, leading to notable adjustments in U.S. markets. 2. Global Discount-Rate Channel (Valuations): As Japanese yields rise and global term premiums stabilize, the discount rate applied to U.S. equities tends to increase. This scenario generally poses challenges for long-duration equities, particularly growth-oriented stocks. A decline in this growth-heavy leadership can drag down the overall index, even amid a stable economic backdrop. 3. Cross-Border Flow and Hedging Channel (Subtle Pressure): Japan is a significant investor in foreign assets (especially US). Changes in domestic yields can alter the appeal of these foreign investments and the associated hedging costs. It’s not necessary to witness a dramatic repatriation for market movements to occur; even modest reallocations, coupled with adjustments in hedging strategies, can tighten financial conditions incrementally. 4. Timing Channel (Gaps): The BOJ typically makes its announcements during U.S. off-hours, heightening the likelihood of gaps in futures trading (like the E-mini S&P 500). Such gaps can disrupt typical intraday trading patterns, forcing traders to navigate wider risk parameters as they react to fresh information. Practical Implications: A surprise hawkish stance from the BOJ increases the odds of the E-mini S&P 500 testing lower support levels initially (S2 followed by S3/S4). Conversely, if the BOJ’s communication aligns with market expectations and is accompanied by a calm demeanor, the resultant market reaction may function as a temporary impetus, quickly yielding the spotlight back to upcoming U.S. jobs data and CPI readings. Geopolitics and Inflation: Key Insights for the Week Ahead This week, energy risk has resurfaced on the market’s radar. The U.S. seizure of the Venezuelan oil tanker M/T Skipper, accompanied by intensified enforcement actions, has disrupted Venezuelan export flows and sparked increased discussions about potential supply disruptions. These developments are crucial, as headlines related to oil tend to boost inflation expectations, particularly just before the Consumer Price Index (CPI) release. The situation in the Middle East remains precarious, with ongoing developments regarding the stability of a ceasefire in Gaza heightening sensitivity to geopolitical headlines. This uncertainty adds an additional layer of complexity to market dynamics. Meanwhile, the normalization of shipping routes is unfolding at a sluggish pace. A return to operations in the Suez/Red Sea lanes is expected to be a gradual process, with estimates suggesting a 60-90 day transition period once it officially commences. On the economic front, the tone surrounding China’s growth appears to be softening. Recent figures show November industrial output rising by 4.8% year-over-year and retail sales increasing by just 1.3% year-over-year, indicating a weakening momentum in demand. Analysts will be closely monitoring these developments, as they could significantly influence market trends and inflation forecasts in the near term. Navigating NY Sessions with Precision In analyzing the upcoming New York trading sessions, it’s crucial to establish a clear scenario map that demarcates potential trading paths based on market behavior around key data releases. The most probable trading scenario is expected to involve two-way trades within established price shelves, characterized by potentially sharp price movements during the Tuesday and Thursday 08:30 data releases. Historically, such movements have a tendency to mean-revert towards the Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP) and Point of Control (POC) unless the incoming data significantly deviates from market expectations. For traders anticipating a bearish extension, key triggers include sustained price acceptance below 6828.50, the Yearly Point of Control (Y-POC), followed by failure to reclaim 6810.50 (Yearly Value Area Low). Acceptance below 6805.00 the previous day’s low would solidify this bearish outlook. In this scenario, any rallies are likely to be viewed as opportunities to “sell the bounce” until a market reclaim signifies strength. Conversely, a bullish surprise may unfold if prices hold above 6850.00, particularly post-data release. A reclaim of the 6889.50 to 6896.25 range, establishing it as a support floor, could trigger a short squeeze, pushing prices towards 6903.00 and subsequently 6915.50. This bullish path would be contingent on genuine acceptance above these levels. Trading Execution Strategy To navigate these scenarios effectively, traders should focus on optimal execution windows during the New York AM session from 09:30 to 11:00, and in the PM session from 13:30 to 16:00. It’s advisable to treat the Tuesday and Thursday 08:30 data releases as distinct trading regimes; traders should observe initial market impulses before seeking to capitalize on subsequent moves from established price shelves. Risk management is paramount. A pass-fail gate is established whereby the first take profit (TP1) should be positioned at a minimum of 2.0 times the risk from the predefined stop, ideally anchored to a 15-minute candle wick or market structure. Limit trading attempts to two per level per session, implementing daily guardrails to exit positions at a loss of -2R and securing profits at +3R. Good Luck !!!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
2
$SPY & $SPX Scenarios — Week of Dec 15 to Dec 19, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY & SP:SPX Scenarios — Week of Dec 15 to Dec 19, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines • 🚩 Delayed macro dump continues: November Jobs, Retail Sales, and CPI all land this week — backlog data finally gives clarity on growth and inflation trends. • 🚩 Inflation focus shifts to CPI: Thursday’s CPI print is the key risk after PCE and FOMC week. • 🧭 Labor + consumer health: Jobs, wages, retail sales, and sentiment together shape recession vs soft-landing narratives into year-end. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) MONDAY, DEC 15 ⏰ 8 30 AM • Empire State Manufacturing Survey (Dec): 10.0 ⏰ 10 00 AM • Home Builder Confidence Index (Dec): 38 TUESDAY, DEC 16 — 🚩 HEAVY DATA DAY ⏰ 8 30 AM • U.S. Employment Report (Nov, delayed): 50,000 • Unemployment Rate (Nov): 4.5 percent • Hourly Wages (Nov): 0.3 percent • Retail Sales (Oct, delayed): 0.1 percent • Retail Sales minus Autos (Oct): 0.2 percent ⏰ 9 45 AM • S&P Flash Services PMI (Dec) • S&P Flash Manufacturing PMI (Dec) ⏰ 10 00 AM • Business Inventories (Sept): 0.1 percent WEDNESDAY, DEC 17 • No major market-moving economic data THURSDAY, DEC 18 — 🚩 CPI DAY ⏰ 8 30 AM • Consumer Price Index (Nov) • Core CPI (Nov) • CPI YoY: 3.1 percent • Core CPI YoY: 3.0 percent • Initial Jobless Claims (Dec 13): 223,000 • Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey (Dec): 3.6 Note: October and November CPI data combined into one release FRIDAY, DEC 19 ⏰ 10 00 AM • Existing Home Sales (Nov): 4.1 million • Consumer Sentiment, Final (Dec): 53.8 ⚠️ Disclaimer: For informational and educational purposes only — not financial advice. 📌 #SPY #SPX #macro #CPI #jobs #inflation #markets #trading #stocks #economy
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
SPX500 Eyes 7000 — Breakout or Bull Trap Ahead?🦸‍♂️ SPX 500 Heist: The 7K Bull Run Playbook (Swing Trade Setup) ✅ Alright, crew, listen up! The market is a vault, and we're here to make a strategic withdrawal. The SPX 500 is showing us the blueprints for a potential bullish breakout. This is our plan to ride the wave. 🎯 The Master Plan: BULLISH We're looking for a classic breakout play. The gates are at 6780, and once they're open, we're going in. ⚡ Entry Signal (The "Go" Signal) Action: Consider long positions ONLY AFTER a confirmed daily breakout and close above the key level of 🎯 6780.00. Translation: Don't jump the gun. Wait for the market to show its hand. 🚨 Stop Loss (The "Escape Route") Location: My suggested escape hatch is down at 🛡️ 6600.00. Place it after the breakout we talked about. A Note from the OG: "Dear Ladies & Gentleman (Thief OG's), I am not recommending you set only my SL. It's your own choice. You can make money, then take money at your own risk." 😉 💰 Profit Target (The "Loot Bag") Destination: We're aiming for the major resistance zone at 🎯 7000.00. This is a psychological magnet and a previous area where sellers stepped in. Why Here? It's a zone of strong resistance, potential overbought conditions, and traps for the greedy. Be smart and escape with your profits! Another OG Note: "Dear Ladies & Gentleman (Thief OG's), I am not recommending you set only my TP. It's your own choice. You can make money, then take money at your own risk." 😎 🔍 Market Intel: Pairs to Watch A master thief always checks the surrounding area. Keep an eye on these correlated assets: AMEX:SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF): The direct tracker. Moves almost tick-for-tick with the SPX. NASDAQ:NDX (Nasdaq 100): Tech-heavy cousin. If NDX is strong, it often pulls SPX up with it. TVC:DXY (U.S. Dollar Index): Our usual antagonist. A stronger dollar can be a headwind for large-cap stocks. CME_MINI:ES1! (S&P 500 E-mini Futures): The real-time action. This is where the big moves often happen first. ✨ Community Boost If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated — it helps me share more setups with the community! #SPX500 #SP500 #SwingTrading #MarketPlaybook #PriceAction #ThiefTrader #IndexAnalysis #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingStrategy #US500 #Equities #BreakoutStrategy #TradingView #StockMarket #RiskManagement
TVC:SPXLong
by The-Thief
SPY (US500–SP500–SPX) WEEKLY PREDICTION (08 DEC)SPY (US500 – SP500 – SPX) WEEKLY PREDICTION 📊 Market Sentiment Market sentiment remains bullish, supported by expectations of a potential FED rate cut in December. Additionally, Trump’s likely nominee for the next FED Chair Kevin Hassett, a strong advocate of aggressive rate cuts has strengthened this bullish outlook. Markets have already begun pricing in the possibility of earlier and more aggressive cuts throughout 2026, fueling upward momentum. 📈 Technical Analysis SPY remains strongly bullish and is currently targeting new all time highs. In my opinion, during this type of price behavior, I do not expect a deep retracement before the market attempts to run the previous highs. 📌 Game Plan – Prediction I expect SPY to either push directly into new all time highs or consolidate until Wednesday’s FED decision. If I see a strong daily close above 687, I plan to buy the retracement into 685, targeting: First target: 688.5 Second target: All-time highs around 690 💬 For deeper sentiment and strategy insights, subscribe to my Substack free access available. ⚠️ This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before trading or investing.
AMEX:SPYLong
by UA_CAPITAL
ES (SPX, SPY) Analysis, Levels, Setups for Fri (Dec 12)CONFIRMED EVENTS - FRI 12/12 (ET) 13:00 - Baker Hughes U.S. rig count 15:30 - CFTC Commitments of Traders (COT) release (usual time) Theme risk: liquidity headlines remain in play with the Fed starting reserve-management T-bill buying on 12/12 (not a data print, but worth respecting). Market Analysis: Pre-Market Overview As we approach the market open, the ES is currently positioned near the main pivot point at 6896.50 (Y-POC). Overnight trading saw a rise to the 6911.75-6912.50 range, but prices have since retraced back below a critical resistance zone at 6908.50-6909.25, which includes the year’s value area high (Y-VAH) and the previous day’s high (PDH). This dynamic suggests a cautious trading atmosphere characterized by “tight range first, trend second,” unless we witness a definitive reclaim above this resistance. When ES gets this tight, it usually means liquidity is being packed for a pop (either direction). The trap is overtrading inside the middle of the box. Right now the clean box is: • Premium zone: 6900.75 then 6908.50-6909.25 • Bottom zone: 6892.00 then 6889.75 Key Resistance Levels: - 6900.75: Asia session low - 6908.50-6909.25: Significant resistance from Y-VAH and PDH - 6911.75-6912.50: Upper threshold to watch If buyers can maintain a position above 6909.25 for 15 minutes, it may set the stage for a rally towards 6922.25, aligning with prior closing levels. Key Support Levels: - 6892.00: London session low - 6891.25: Overnight high - 6884.75: Further potential support - 6878.00: Continued downside target - 6866.50: Year’s value area low (Y-VAL) A decisive move below 6892.00 could trigger a morning pullback towards the 6884.75-6878.00 zone, with 6866.50 acting as a deeper support reference. Today’s market activity will likely be influenced by developments in the semiconductor sector. Broadcom is placing pressure on the AI space due to concerns over margins, while Nvidia's outlook is being scrutinized in light of recent China-related headlines. Traders should brace for increased volatility around the 6900 and 6909 levels as movements in semiconductor stocks unfold. The only significant intraday economic release scheduled is the Baker Hughes rig count, expected at 1:00 PM ET. Investors should also note that larger US economic data releases are anticipated next week, following a backlog caused by the recent government shutdown. A++ SETUP 1 - REJECTION FADE (SHORT) from 6911.75-6915.50 15m pushes above 6911.75/6915.50 and closes back below 6909.25 - then 5m retest fails - then 1m first pullback gives LH. Entry: 6909.75-6911.25 Hard SL: 6916.25 (above the rejection wick) TP1: 6896.50 TP2: 6884.75 TP3: 6878.00 A++ SETUP 2 - ACCEPTANCE CONTINUATION (LONG) above 6922.25 15m full-body close above 6922.25 - then 5m pullback holds 6915.50-6911.75 and re-closes up - then 1m HL to enter. Entry: 6916.00-6918.00 (on the hold) Hard SL: 6908.25 (below the hold + back under PDH/Y-VAH area) TP1: 6934.00 TP2: 6946.50 TP3: 6976.75 Good Luck
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
3
SPX500 | Bulls Target 6957 as Breadth Improves Beyond AISPX500 – Technical Overview The S&P 500 has reached a new record high, notably without support from AI-related stocks. Despite underwhelming earnings from Oracle and Broadcom, the broader market continued to rally—an encouraging sign that sector leadership may be broadening rather than relying solely on AI momentum. Technical Analysis SPX500 maintains a bullish momentum while trading above 6873–6888, with upside targets at: → 6918 → 6957 → 6991 A continuation toward 6957 is favored as long as price holds above 6888. However, a 1H close below 6873 will signal a bearish correction, opening the path toward: → 6852 → 6815 Further downside pressure may extend the move into the 6771 support zone if risk sentiment weakens. Pivot Line: 6888 Resistance: 6918 · 6957 · 6991 Support: 6852 · 6815 · 6771
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by SroshMayi
1