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S&P 500 (SPX500)

Happy New Year S&P 500: Why I am BULLISH on Stocks for 2026.Hello There, in the recent year, the S&P 500 has formed historical volatilities to the upside and downside while still sustaining the underlying trend. Several important factors drove the major price moves seen in the past year. Considering these fundamentals, I have detected important fundamental and technical signs that should be considered when preparing potential market participation for 2026. In 2025, the major price moves that were recorded in the price actions resulted from crucial fiscal decisions. The main decline right at the beginning of the year due to tariff increases resulted in a drop of over -20% for the index. While this seemed to be a doomsday scenario for the whole market and a potential setup of a year-long bear market, the markets could quickly recover again and form several new highs. The major price move that resulted from the market recovery gave the implication that the bull market won't be over so far, as prices reached far beyond the previous all-time high already. What is important here is that this price move was also supported by increased bullish volume, making it a fundamentally strong price action that is also likely to continue within 2026. FUNDAMENTAL PERSPECTIVE There are also several fundamental signs that are main implications for my consideration of a huge bull market continuation in 2026. These factors determine the underlying bullishness of the market from an economic perspective, supporting also the technical factors seen in my chart. There I am pointing out the most determining fundamental factors to consider here. ___________________________________________ Sustained GDP Growth and All-Time-High Demand ___________________________________________ Considering the important macroeconomic dynamics of the underlying fundamentals. The year 2025 has shown great increases within the U.S. GDP, continuing with the main uptrend of GDP growth. This has been supported by subsequent interest rate decreases. It is important to note here that the U.S. volume share of the S&P 500 accounts for almost 72% of the total volume of the index, making the U.S. volume entering from the economy the most important factor of price growth. Also, the expectations of interest rate drops as well as inflation declines create a main bullish environment, which is offering an underlying bullishness from a fundamental perspective. With decreasing inflationary pressures, the interest rates are also likely to decrease, creating a dynamic that is supporting further investments into the index. Considering the forecasts, this will create a bullish dynamic, especially in Q2 and Q3, when the forecasted expectations turn out in reality. ____________________________ Nominal Interest Rate Decreases ____________________________ The decreasing nominal interest rates are a strong sign of the market turning more and more bullish. In the past year, the FED lowered the interest rates subsequently to lower levels. Creating a strong demand for money and investments in the market. These drivers were also particularly important for the price action holding to the upside and not declining more after the major drop at the beginning of the year. It is highly likely that interest rates will decline further in 2026, creating further bullish underlying fundamental factors, increasing money demand and investment. This adds to the overall bullish expectations and considerations of forecasts for 2026. It will also be an interesting indication to follow for Q1 and Q2 and see how the FED considers further rate declines. ___________________________________________ An Bullish Sentiment Determined by the VIX Index ___________________________________________ This is an indicator especially important for the S&P 500 Index. It measures the market expectations of volatility derived from options prices. A low VIX index signals a bullish sentiment with a high risk tolerance, and firms are likely to invest more. A high VIX index signals a bearish sentiment with a high risk aversion, and the firms are not likely to invest more than necessary. Throughout the year of 2025, the index was, the vast majority of the time, below the 15 threshold. With an average VIX of 15, this is a very bullish base that has built up in the year 2025. Especially in Q3 and Q4 of 2025, the index kept several times below the 15 threshold. This dynamic signals firms and investors willingness to invest more in the market and get ready for further bullish moves in 2026. TECHNICAL PERSPECTIVE Major Historical Ascending Trend Channel As seen in my chart, the S&P 500 index is still trading within this huge and sustained uptrend channel. Within this channel, the index already bounced several times in this massively important and crucial lower bullish accumulation zone, especially followed by many famous investors pointing out supporting facts about the bullish dynamics. This channel is not yet broken, and the index already had the ability to visit the middle line of the channel, making it highly likely that the index will also bounce till the upper boundary of the channel again. Bollinger Bands Tightening and Breakout Expectations The Bollinger Bands indication is very interesting to consider. Because this constellation is now actually tightening above the middle line of the historical accelerating channel. Also, the index is bouncing above the middle line of the Bollinger Bands. As the bands tighten, they get ready for a major breakout and expansion of the bands towards the upside. What is also important here is that they follow the overall uptrend and EMA structure. An upthrust within this Bollinger Band dynamic is very likely to occur. Substantial and Sustained Fibonacci Extensions The index is still trading within a major Fibonacci extension. With the major waves 1 and 2 already completed. Now the index moves forward with expanding the wave 3 towards the upside. Within this dynamic, it is very interesting to see that the first 1.618 Fibonacci extension level of the first wave has already been reached. After this level is reached, the next target is the next higher Fibonacci level of 2.618. As the uptrend is still going on and the Fibonacci extension is holding, this is the next reasonable target. The target also matches with the huge ascending uptrend. Strong Volume Supporting Bounces in the Channel The bounces from the lower boundary of the uptrend channel were severely supported by major volume spikes. This is very important in an uptrend; the volume spikes have to correspondingly support the uptrend dynamics. The spikes were always conducted when a major bottom and the following uptrend bounce had been formed. As the substantial volume is holding on, it will be an important driver for further bullish price action throughout the year. Therefore, especially if volume should increase in the next term, it will offer additional support. EMA-Support and Overall Trend Dynamics The whole uptrend is still holding above the whole main EMA structure. Also greatly to consider here is that the EMA bounce occurred in March 2023, as also the market was able to recover from the inherent dynamic. The trend is still holding above the EMAs, and if a pullback should occur, the EMAs will be strong supports, likely holding the trend to the upside. Therefore, there are two possible scenarios that are most likely. The first is the uptrend just goes on, and the second is a pullback into support zones happens from where a stabilizing bullish price action can establish the further bullish uptrend. CONCLUSION AND PROJECTIONS Taking all of these important considerations into account, Q1 will be very decisive. Especially in price action, Q1 will set up how the rest of the year will move forward in price action. Therefore, there are two main scenarios that should be highly necessarily considered. The first is the uptrend dynamic as it currently established just goes on till the upper target zones are reached. The second is the price action firstly pulling back into the support zones determined by EMA, the Bollinger Bands, the bullish accumulation channel, and the volume profile. Then it will also be important how the macroeconomic indications pointed out will behave. If the expected forecasts show up as mentioned, it will highly likely be a major boost for the bullish price action. In any case, it will be highly determining and interesting to see the S&P 500 index evolve. With this being said, it is great to see an increased support. We will watch out for the important market evolutions. Thank you very much for watching!
AMEX:SPYLong
by VincePrince
15
ES (SPX, SPY) Analysis, Key Levels, Setups for Fri (Jan 2nd)Market Overview: Context for Friday As the market transitions from year-end positioning, traders should anticipate a choppy session influenced by holiday-thinned activity. Initially, expect fluctuations without a clear directional trend, but anticipate more definitive movements once New York cash volume resumes its normal pace. From a structural standpoint, higher timeframes continue to reflect an uptrend. However, a recent decline from the 6980s has initiated a fresh pullback, leading to a short-term bias focused on “repair mode.” A shift in sentiment could occur if prices can reclaim and hold the mid-6940s. Currently, prices are stabilizing around the 6920 mark following a sharp decline and subsequent bounce. This positioning places the E-mini S&P 500 (ES) in a mean-reversion zone, where oscillations between key value levels are expected as traders navigate the current landscape. Forecasting Potential Market Movements Base Case: Expect a range-bound market with a focus on repairing price levels. Overnight Activity: The market has shown rotation around key levels of 6916 and 6922.50, with buying interest emerging above 6908.50. Opening Analysis: As the New York session begins, we anticipate attempts to breach the 6922.50 to 6935.25 range. Should buyers fail to maintain support above 6922.50 during retests, the market is likely to rotate back towards 6916, followed by support at 6908.50. Bullish Scenario: A strong upward movement could materialize with a decisive breakout above 6922.50. - Trigger Point: A 15-minute close above 6922.50, followed by pullbacks that maintain support above 6921.50. - Target Levels: Initial target at 6935.25, with further upside potential towards 6947.50 to 6951.50. Bearish Scenario: A downward failure could emerge if the market loses the 6908.50 level. - Trigger Point: Persistent failures to sustain above 6916, accompanied by a 15-minute close below 6908.50. - Target Levels: An initial downside target at 6895.25, followed by 6890.25 to 6888.00. If 6888 is breached and held, the next level of interest would be 6873. Events to watch tomorrow (timing is ET) • 09:45 - S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (final) • 16:30 - Fed H.4.1 balance sheet update (released on the next business day when the usual Thursday release falls on a federal holiday) A++ SETUP 1 (LONG) - Rejection Fade Entry: 6888.00-6892.25 (buy only after a flush into the pocket, then reclaim) Stop: 6878.00 • TP1: 6922.50 • TP2: 6935.25 • TP3: 6947.50 • Invalidation: 15m body closes below 6888.00 and does not reclaim quickly A++ SETUP 2 (SHORT) - Rejection Fade Entry: 6947.50-6951.50 (sell only after a push up, then fail back under 6947.50) Stop: 6962.00 • TP1: 6922.50 • TP2: 6916.00 • TP3: 6890.25 • Invalidation: 15m closes and holds above 6951.50 (or a clean push above 6962.00) Good Luck !!!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
1
Five Bubbles of TechnocracyGreetings, reader. Happy New Year! The year 2026 is here—and it looks to be a challenging one for the bulls. With it comes the "beginning of the end": the predictable bursting of the AI bubble. Your idols—Nvidia, OpenAI, massive Data Centers, and other tech icons that seemed to grow to the heavens—are finally falling back to earth. The speculative froth is evaporating, and the panic-stricken crowd is frantically searching for the Emergency Exit . There is nothing new under the sun: after a period of excess in the Western equity markets, we are witnessing yet another tragicomedy accompanied by the indignant cries of: “I never saw this coming!” 🤦‍♂️ Most analysts and investors are blinded by the current brilliance of the Data Center and AI bubble. They argue over Nvidia’s fundamentals and debate the exact timing of the crash. This is mere noise obscuring the grand design. This article is not about the AI bubble as a "random" or "unforeseen" failure. It is about the fact that financial bubbles over the last 50 years have not been anomalies—they are logically necessary, sequential stages in the construction of a Global Technocratic Infrastructure . Each cycle served a specific purpose: attracting billions, then trillions of dollars to build a new layer of the system before collapsing to eliminate weak participants. Technocracy is being built according to a precise blueprint, and we can track its evolution through five sequential speculative cycles, each solving a bottleneck created by the previous one. The Five Stages of Evolution: From PC to Nuclear Autonomy 1️⃣ The Genesis (1980s, Nifty Fifty): Establishing the user and the data collection point (PCs and mass electronics). 2️⃣ Connectivity (1990-2000, Dot-com): Laying the data highways (The Internet and fiber optics). 3️⃣ The Brain (2020-2025, Data Centers/AI): Developing the intelligence to process this colossal flow of information. 4️⃣ Order (2026–2028 Forecast, DLT/Tokenization): Systematizing and automating ownership, data, and assets. 5️⃣ Autonomy (Post-2030 Forecast, SMR/Uranium): Ensuring the invulnerability and uninterruptible power of this energy-intensive global system. The "new money" gamblers—I mean, "young investors"—who bought the peaks will spend 2026 screaming about "Black Swans," searching the news feed for reasons why their favorite stocks are crashing. We, looking at the long-term horizon, must simply state the facts: we are witnessing the collapse of yet another financial bubble . It has already fulfilled its mission: attracting trillions to build the Artificial "Brain" (AI/DC) for the future technocratic system, redistributing capital from the greedy to the disciplined, and from retail to the institutional players. For most, the 2026 crash will be a tragedy. But for insiders and my subscribers, it is the return of common sense, logic, and objective reality . The coming collapse is a sobering moment from the "AI-idiocracy" and the market madness of the last two years. It is the short-lived triumph of the truth we have analyzed here for years—a return from the pink clouds of AI hallucinations to the solid ground of reality . The Five Bubbles of Technocracy is not just a market cycle analysis; it is the revelation of a grand design . The construction of a Digital Infrastructure of Control is not a future dream; it is a global conceptual project that uses the crowd's speculative mania as a free capital pump. This article will show how this pump has functioned for 50 years and where it will direct capital in the coming decade. ❗️ Disclaimer: A brief note for new readers. My goal is not to offend, but to analyze clearly. To understand these processes, we must call things by their real names —without sugarcoating. If you are accustomed to mainstream media and "influencers" who tell you polite half-truths and pleasant lies, this analysis may not be for you. The truth can be bitter, but it destroys illusions. If you are not ready for that, do not read further. Let’s dive in! ________________________________________ 📟 Introduction: The Era of Technocratic Bubbles ________________________________________ ⚙️ From Nifty Fifty to SMR: How Speculation Funded the Global Technocratic Order. This article is not about the "AI bubble" as an error; it is an obituary for 2025 and a manual for the next 5-10 years. I will demonstrate that the financial bubbles of the last 50 years are not a random series of crises, but logical, sequential steps in assembling a global infrastructure. Technocracy follows a cyclical plan. The current crash is merely the final chord of Bubble #3 and the launchpad for Bubbles #4 and #5. The Five Stages of Evolution: Where the Capital Flows We will trace this path to see how the 2026 collapse clears the field for a new, even more cynical speculative mania: 🎈Bubble #1: Creating the User (1980s): Established the point of data collection. 🎈Bubble #2: Connecting the Network (2000): Laid the global internet channels. 🎈Bubble #3: Building the "Brain" (2020–2025): Created the intelligence currently undergoing a painful revaluation. 🎈Bubble #4: Order and Control (2026–2028 Forecast, DLT/Tokenization): The next mega-bubble. Capital will flee to where they promise to "systematize" data through DLT and smart contracts. 🎈Bubble #5: The "Perpetual" Engine (Post-2030 Forecast, SMR/Uranium): The strategic goal—ensuring energy autonomy for the entire system. ________________________________________ 🖥️ Part I. Building the Crowd, the Internet, and the Algorithms: Bubbles #1, #2, and #3 ________________________________________ 💥 Bubble #1: The Nifty Fifty and the Rise of Japan (1980s). Establishing the Data Collection Point (PCs and Electronics) What was the Nifty Fifty? It was a list of approximately 50 "blue-chip" stocks in the late '60s and early '70s that were considered so reliable and innovative that investors believed in their "eternal growth," regardless of economic cycles. This bubble was directly tied to the rapid proliferation of electronic and computer technology, which ceased to be the exclusive domain of corporations and states. The transition from Mainframes to PCs: the emergence of personal computers (Apple II, Commodore 64, IBM PC) was a turning point. Technology became personal, understandable, and affordable due to economies of scale. Introducing PCs into homes and small businesses created millions of "users" for the first time. This was a critical aspect for the Technocracy—establishing a population base accustomed to generating and digitizing data. 📈 Chart: Nikkei 225 (1950 — 2040) The Japanese index INDEX:NKY Nikkei 225 serves as a colorful historical example, tracing its trading history from the 1950s to the present. To put it briefly: following the end of WWII, when the world was re-divided into spheres of influence, the United States invested heavily in the development of Japanese industry, specifically in various technologies. This was a strategic investment in a technocratic ally and a manufacturing hub. The Pump Phase (1950s – 1980s): The Nikkei 225, acting as the locomotive of the tech boom, grew without serious pullbacks until the late 1980s. Even the 1973 oil crisis, which hit Western nations hard, largely spared Japan. The index saw only a minor -35% correction before surging +1000%, setting an all-time high and nearly touching the 40,000-point mark by the early 1990s. This was the peak of the technocratic premium for creating mass-market consumer electronics and PCs, which successfully solved Task #1: creating a global "user base. " The Payback and Decline Phase (1990s – 2008): Once the Nifty Fifty bubble and the associated Japanese real estate boom burst, the Japanese stock market entered a prolonged, "fascinating journey" of a downtrend that lasted 19 years, resulting in a -80% drop from its ATH. Japan had fulfilled its function, and capital flowed toward the next objective. The Recovery (2008 – 2025): Amidst the 2008 global financial crisis—after dropping -60% from its local high and retesting the 2003 lows—the index began a long, slow recovery. Only in 2025 did it finally surpass the peaks of the bubble from 36 years ago. It took the Japanese index three and a half decades just to recover to its 1980s highs! The Big Question: Is the Japanese economy doing so well today that the index is hitting new highs? Hardly. The reality is quite the opposite. Japan's national debt leads the world at over +250% of GDP 🤯 and continues to grow. Chinese and Korean competitors have long since captured market share and technology leads, Japan's demographics are in terminal decline, and the country lacks both resources and territory. However, they have a printing press, the "Carry Trade," and a strong alliance with the US. This maintains the facade of the Japanese economic "miracle." This is what the life-giving power of infinite money emission, carry trades, and zero interest rates does to asset prices and the INDEX:NKY index. ◻️ In the 1980s, the world wasn't ready for AI yet, but it was ready for a "new era of eternal growth." This was the first major speculative premium the market paid for technological dominance. The Nifty 50 Idol: This group of stocks (IBM, Xerox, Polaroid, etc.) traded at astronomical P/E ratios. Investors believed these companies were "too big to fail." This was the first instance of faith in a technocratic elite that supposedly held a monopoly on the future. This faith was pure speculation, disguised by the slogan: "technology is invincible." The Fundamental Order: The purpose of this bubble was practical: attract capital to scale production and, most importantly, make PCs and electronics affordable. The Technocracy didn't just need mainframes for the Pentagon; it needed a "mini-PC in every home"—in other words, data collection points. The Role of Japan: Japan acted as the primary innovator of mass production. Companies like Sony and Toshiba made technology fashionable and accessible (Walkman, color TVs, semiconductors). The Japanese real estate and stock market bubble of the '80s was simply a colossal financial pump that provided the Technocracy with its necessary user base. ◽️ Bubble #1 Outcome: The bubble burst, fueled by the "eternal growth" of the Nifty Fifty, but it left behind the essential: millions of people accustomed to computers and devices, and a global manufacturing base to create them. The User was created, the crowd was ready. Moving on. ________________________________________ 🌐 Part II. Bubble #2: The Dot-com Crash (2000). Building the Data Highways (Internet and Connectivity). Communication Infrastructure as the Logical Growth of Technocracy ________________________________________ If the 1980s focused on computerizing individual locations (the PC), the 1990s created an urgent need to connect those millions of computers. The emergence and standardization of the Internet i as a public network was the solution. Technocracy shifted from creating individual tools to building a global communication system. The "Pipes" and Speed: Colossal investments flowed into laying fiber-optic cables and manufacturing networking hardware (Cisco Systems) . The prevailing belief was that "bandwidth" could never be excessive. Network Software: An explosion of companies creating web servers, browsers, and early online services (AOL, Yahoo!) . This marked the transition from local software installed on a disk to networked software. Profitless IPOs: In the final phase, thousands of companies went public with nothing but a business plan and a .com domain. The key metric wasn't profit, but "eyeballs" or user count. Thus, WEB 1.0 was born. The Technocratic Move : The bubble created the channels for data transmission. Technocracy realized its networked nature and laid the "arteries" necessary for the PCs of the 80s and 90s to exchange information. 📈 Chart: NASDAQ-100 (1990 — 2040) When the "Japanese Economic Miracle" was sidelined in the early 1990s, leaving the Nikkei 225 to fall -80%, capital was already redirected to the next task. During the decade Japan’s market spent in a knockout, the US index FX:NAS100 surged +2000%. The Pump Phase (1990s): The Dot-com bubble was a cynical fundraising campaign to lay global arteries—fiber-optic networks and communication protocols. In March 2000, it hit an ATH of 4800. This was the premium paid for the promise of connecting the "crowd" established in Bubble #1. The Payback Phase (2000–2002): Once the infrastructure task was essentially solved (the pipes were laid), the bubble burst. In a two-and-a-half-year decline, the NASDAQ-100 crashed -83%, bottoming out just below 800 points. The Recovery: It took the index sixteen years just to reclaim its 2000 ATH. This clearly demonstrates that once a strategic mission is completed, an asset class can be left in stagnation until it is needed again. Key Insight: The Role of Post-2008 Liquidity. Even the 2008 Global Financial Crisis didn't crush the NASDAQ-100 as severely as the dot-com bust; it fell "only" -54% from its 2007 highs, without breaking the 2002 lows. A New Driver: From 2008 onward, a new and much more aggressive game began. We’ve seen an almost uninterrupted rally, showing over +2000% growth from the 2008 lows. Selling the Narrative: While the growth of the tech-heavy NASDAQ-100 can still be "sold" to the crowd using the success of Big Tech giants, why are European, British, and Japanese indices hitting new ATHs today? The answer is simple: the true driver is not earnings, but liquidity, carry trades, and buybacks , fueled by media narratives and hype. Focus on GLI: Since 2008, the Western stock market has essentially acted as a STERILIZER for excess liquidity from the Eurodollar system . Looking at the Global Liquidity Index (GLI) chart, it is clear what the PRIMARY driver of stock market growth really is. The media narratives used to explain the rally to the masses are secondary. Conclusion: The Dot-com bubble created the channels (The Internet). The 2008 crisis created an unprecedented flood of liquidity, providing the fuel for the next stage: creating the Brain to process the data flowing through these channels. ◻️ The Dot-com bubble was about infrastructure and access. Once the masses had their computers and gadgets, the logical problem arose: how to connect them into a single network so data could flow freely? The "Pipes" Bubble: This was a pure infrastructure bubble. Speculation revolved around companies promising to lay fiber (WorldCom, Global Crossing) or sell the hardware for it i . Investors poured billions into profitless companies that simply had a plan to "build the tubes." The ".com" Hysteria: The tragicomedy peaked when any company with a ".com" suffix was hailed as the future—even if they were losing money on every transaction. Behind this circus was a strategic mandate. The Fundamental Order: Lay the arteries for WEB 1.0, WEB 2.0, and eventually WEB 3.0. For Technocracy to manage the world, it needs advanced communication channels. This bubble forced private capital to fund a global network that otherwise wouldn't have been built so rapidly. The Cynical Outcome: The bubble burst, leaving behind "dark fiber," bankrupt telcos, and thousands of failed businesses—but the infrastructure remained. The survivors (Google, Amazon, eBay) inherited cheap, surplus data channels. These companies later used this infrastructure to collect and process the data that would lead us to Bubble #3. ◽️ Bubble #2 Outcome: The bubble left behind the communication channels (The Internet). The masses are now connected and constantly generating data. ________________________________________ 💻 Part III. Bubble #3: Creating the Intelligence—Data Centers and AI (2022–2025). The Construction of the "Brain" (Big Data Processing) 🧠 ________________________________________ After the previous two bubbles created billions of connected devices and a global network, we faced a new bottleneck: there is too much data, and it moves too fast. The Primary Driver: The urgent need to process, analyze, and monetize vast volumes of information in real-time. The Technocratic Shift: The focus has moved from communication infrastructure to "intelligence" infrastructure. Ownership of data is no longer enough; the value now lies in the ability to "digest" it for automated decision-making and social control. Generative AI (LLMs): The rise of Large Language Models (ChatGPT and its peers) proved that AI could be a mass-market, transformational product, sparking a global corporate arms race. Data Centers (DCs) and GPUs: Training and running these models requires astronomical computing power provided by hyperscale Data Centers. Specialized GPUs i became the literal "accelerants" of this technocratic evolution. Concentration of Power: Unlike the Dot-com era, speculation today is concentrated in a handful of Mega-Caps that control the silicon and the cloud platforms. As of late 2025, the AI bubble’s momentum is visibly fading. Beyond the hype of "AI will save us all," we must account for the Political Engineering factor. The Political Trigger: In the context of a shifting liberal world order and internal corporate-oligarchic friction in the US, the stock market is more sensitive to political influence than ever before. The Game of "Hot Potato": The AI bubble was inflated under the Biden administration starting in 2023. Now, the Republicans and Trump face the fallout in 2026—just in time for the Congressional Midterm Elections. The MAGA team’s delay in forcing the Fed to aggressively cut rates in 2025 has left them vulnerable. The longer you stretch the rubber band, the harder it snaps back. The November 3, 2026 Midterms: 1. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives are up for election. 2. 35 out of 100 Senate seats are at stake. 3. 36 State Governors will be elected. 4. Thousands of state legislative and administrative positions are on the line. A crash in 2026 would likely lead to a "Divided Government," blocking the MAGA agenda and creating a springboard for the Democrats in 2028. ◻️ The "Rescue" Scenario: The appointment of a new Fed Chair in 2026 will likely be marketed as a "market rescue," launching another round of unlimited QE (Quantitative Easing). The Eurodollar system cannot function without it, but new QE requires a catalyst: a sharp "Risk-OFF" event and a market correction of -40-50%, similar to 2008. The fiat model survives only on FAITH and liquidity injections.💸 ◻️ Price vs. Value: Do not confuse speculative bubbles with technological progress. The Price of overextended AI stocks is not the same as the Value of the technology itself. Just as the PC survived the Nifty Fifty crash and the Internet survived the Dot-com bust, AI will continue to integrate into our lives after the 50% "sobering up" of 2026. This isn't an accident; it's the end of Stage Three. The Bottleneck: 40 years of digitization (Bubble #1) and global networking (Bubble #2) left us with a mountain of data that was useless without a way to "digest" it. The Fundamental Mandate: Create the "Brain"—AI algorithms and Data Centers capable of real-time global management. The New Idol: Investors deified the chips i and the cloud (Microsoft, Amazon) . The speculative premium was paid for the expectation of a monopoly on intelligence. The Strategic Outcome: The crash doesn't mean AI failed. It means the capital required to build the core infrastructure i has been successfully harvested and deployed. ◽️ Bubble #3 Outcome: The AI/DC Bubble is the culmination of the previous cycles. It elevates the Technocracy by making computation the central nervous system of society. However, this system has two critical vulnerabilities that lead us directly to the next two cycles: 1) Data Order: Data is collected and processed, but it must be systematized, secured, and property rights must be automated (Enter Bubble #4). 2) Energy Demand: The unprecedented power required by Data Centers makes energy the next critical "commodity" (Enter Bubble #5). This part of the translation deals with the transition from "Intelligence" to "Systematization." I have adapted the sharp Russian metaphors (like the "rectal suppository" analogy) into a more sophisticated but equally biting critique of financial engineering and behavioral economics that will resonate with the Western "contrarian" and "macro" investment communities. ________________________________________ 🏦 Part II. Asset Systematization: Bubble #4 (2026–2028 Forecast) ________________________________________ 🗣 "We’ve always used technology to better serve our clients, and we’re going to do the same with tokenization. Tokenization and blockchain are real." — Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan 🗣 "Tokenization is the future. It’s time to move all assets onto the blockchain." — CEO of Coinbase 🗣 "The potential for tokenization extends to real estate, stocks, bonds, and beyond. The industry is only at the beginning of this journey." — Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock 🔗 Bubble #4: DLT and Tokenization. Establishing Order (Distributed Ledger Technology and Smart Contracts). Systematization, Transparency, and Automation of Assets. The AI/Data Center bubble (#3) generated an incredible amount of data and algorithms but failed to solve a fundamental problem: how do we manage ownership rights and automate transactions for this data and the real-world assets they represent? The Primary Driver: The demand for absolute transparency, immutability, and automated management. Traditional financial and legal systems are too slow and expensive for a real-time world. The Technocratic Shift: Technocracy is moving toward an automated, transparent asset management system. This eliminates intermediaries, standardizes processes, and makes the entire system controllable at the protocol level. Tokenization: Converting real-world assets (Real Estate, Private Equity, Commodities, Stocks) into digital tokens. This opens the door to massive liquidity and fractional ownership, attracting trillions of dollars. Smart Contracts: Code that automatically executes transactions without lawyers or banks. It is the perfect tool for technocratic automation. DLT/Blockchain: The technology that ensures ledger immutability, removing the need for centralized trust. 📈 Chart: GLI, S&P 500, and Selected DLT Assets (2019 – 2029) In the previously published analysis: 🩻 Anatomy of AI Illusions. 2026–2028 Forecast , I broke down the pump mechanism of 2021-2025. The Master Driver — Liquidity: Since 2019, the S&P 500 and the crypto market have moved in lockstep with the Global Liquidity Index (GLI). When liquidity is drained ("dried up"), a correction follows. When the system is flooded with "helicopter money," it flows into high-speculation bubbles to vent the excess pressure. The masses, lured by media and "fin-fluencers," buy the peaks, burning their capital to fund the next stage of Technocratic development. The mechanism is simple, bold, and cynical — but highly effective: 1) Organize a crisis and panic (buy up devalued assets) → 2) "Save" everyone by printing piles of paper — QE (continue accumulation) → 3) Distribute cash to the masses under the guise of "care" (continue driving prices up) → 4) Inflate a market bubble in the sector of your choice (begin stealthy offloading) → 5) Use media and social networks to lure "dumb retail" into buying at the highs (sell more aggressively) → 6) Continue offloading into the naive herd, feeding them stories via MSM while the market slides → 7) Organize a new crisis and panic (begin buying back the necessary devalued assets) → 8) Once the plebs have forgotten everything, or "new" un-scared investors enter the market — repeat the scheme... The "greater fool" theory remains the most reliable engine of the financial world. 🤷‍♂️ The GLI Cycle and QE Synchronization: According to the CrossBorder Capital GLI model, we expect a peak in late 2025 followed by a decline through 2027. Markets will likely bottom out in late 2026 amidst falling liquidity, aggressive rate cuts, the AI bubble burst, and a "post-facto" recognition of a global recession. In late 2026, a new Fed Chair will step in to "save" the US economy. 2027 will see a recovery, and 2028 will bring the explosive culmination of Bubble #4. The goal of this new QE is to absorb old debt through stablecoins and "trap" the digital dollar in a regulated loop, preventing it from leaking into the physical economy and causing hyperinflation. 🛠️ The Instruments for Bubble #4: For the "Tokenization of Real-World Assets" (RWA), institutional capital needs controlled, scalable platforms. I have selected three primary "horses" for Bubble #4: Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), and Hedera (HBAR), along with three infrastructure plays: Ethereum (ETH): The Regulatory and Institutional Hub. It provides the financial gravity needed to legitimize the RWA market. Solana (SOL): The High-Throughput Engine. Its "VISA-level" speed is critical for high-frequency trading and billions of micro-transactions. Hedera (HBAR): The Enterprise Ledger. Governed by a council of global corporations, it provides the legal maturity and security required by supra-national organizations. Infrastructure Plays: Chainlink (LINK) as the bridge between smart contracts and real-world data; Avalanche (AVAX) for institutional "subnets" with KYC/AML compliance; and Polygon (POL) as the mass-adoption gateway for Web2 brands. ❓ Where is BTC? Bitcoin is the "evergreen bubble." Its job is to be the billboard and the locomotive for the industry. But being first doesn't mean being the ultimate winner. Think of the pioneers: IBM 5150, Motorola DynaTAC, Nokia 9000, Kodak. Where are they now? Most are either gone or secondary players in the indices. Bitcoin will likely face a similar fate once its function is fulfilled. 💡 Why Bubble #4 is Inevitable: The "Smart" Data Flood: Every gadget today—from "Smart" TVs and watches to Tesla cars—is a sensor (Camera, Mic, GPS) gathering data. This creates a chaos of information that requires a unified, automated ledger. The Trust Crisis: To function, the Technocracy needs stable ledgers, not chaotic, open-source forks. DLT is not for "crypto-anarchist freedom"; it is for the stability and invulnerability of the system’s records. The RWA Narrative: After 2026, DLT will be marketed as the "savior" from a corrupt, slow banking system. It will facilitate the digitalization of everything—Real Estate, Commodities, and Equity—into an automated, traceable turnover. ◽️ Outcome of Bubble #4: From Dot-com to Tokenization The 2026-2028 DLT bubble is the logical heir to the Dot-com era. If Dot-com built the pipes for information , Tokenization builds the protocols for value and ownership . Most crypto-influencers miss the big picture. They pray for an "Alt-season" in their sandbox while failing to see that the cryptomarket was created as a testing ground for a new digital economy . If the public isn't ready for a direct "CBDC" injection (as seen in the failure in Nigeria), the system will introduce it through the "back door" via stablecoins and RWA. By 2030, after "The Great Depression v2.0" and "Great Reset" of old debts, the infrastructure will be ready for the final step: DLT → Digital ID → CBDC → UBI Technocracy will achieve (die Ordnung) Order! ________________________________________ ⚛️ Part III. The "Perpetual" Engine: Bubble #5 (Post-2030 Forecast) ________________________________________ ⚡ Bubble #5: SMRs, Microreactors, and Uranium. Establishing Autonomy and Invulnerability. Uninterruptible Power and Infrastructure Defense The Problem: Conventional, centralized power grids cannot keep up with the exponential growth in demand from Data Centers, each requiring megawatts of power comparable to a small city. A technocratic system built on blockchain and AI cannot rely on unstable or centralized infrastructure. The Primary Driver: The need for autonomous, powerful, and secure energy sources that can be deployed locally—next to consumption hubs like Data Centers, industrial clusters, and remote strategic facilities. SMRs (Small Modular Reactors) and Microreactors (μR): These are the ideal solution. They can be mass-produced, rapidly deployed, and placed directly adjacent to hyperscale DCs. This eliminates long-distance transmission losses and makes the "Brain" of the system energy-independent. Satellite Internet: Continued investment in low-earth orbit (LEO) networks (Starlink, Kuiper) ensures global, resilient connectivity. The ultimate vision—already hinted at by the likes of Elon Musk—is an autonomous "3-in-1" orbital complex: a satellite equipped with its own SMR and on-board Data Center. This is the ultimate guarantee of security, far removed from any "ground-level" threats. The Technocratic Shift: Creating an invulnerable, distributed, and energy-autonomous system. This is the final stage that makes the entire technocratic structure truly self-sufficient and globally dominant. ◽️ Thus, Bubble #5 is the final chord. Once completed, the infrastructure will be fully realized: 1. Users and Data (The 80s). 2. Connectivity (The Dot-com era). 3. Processing Intelligence (The AI/DC era). 4. Systematized Order (DLT/RWA). 5. Autonomous Energy (SMR/Uranium). The sequential construction—from PCs to global AI Data Centers and DLT networks—has generated a critical energy deficit. The Bottleneck: The infrastructure built across the first four bubbles is an energy-hungry beast. Centralized grids cannot provide the stability or autonomy required. The Fundamental Mandate: Energy Autonomy. Technocracy cannot depend on political shifts, geopolitical conflicts, or the intermittency of "green" energy—we'll leave those for the distracted masses. It requires its own local, powerful, uninterruptible power source. The New Idol: Small Modular Reactors (SMRs). Forget the old, cumbersome nuclear plants of the past. We are entering the era of compact, factory-built energy units acting as "batteries" for the industrial and digital elite. The Speculative Core: This bubble will be marketed under the banner of "Energy Independence," but its true purpose is to fund the global energy pivot toward autonomous AI and DLT networks. The Raw Material: Bubble #5 transforms Uranium from a mere commodity into the strategic fuel of the future civilization. This is the ultimate long-term investment thesis: uranium demand will grow exponentially to feed these autonomous nodes of power. ☢️ Uranium: Its Future and Ours. 2026–2050 Forecast ⬇️ Link to the detailed analysis: ⬇️ 🔑 Strategic Insight: The Speed of Cycles Not all bubbles are created equal. Bubbles #1 and #2 (PC and Internet) moved slowly because they required physical construction —laying fiber, building factories, and logistics. Bubbles #3 and #4 (AI and DLT) are lightning-fast because they are "born digital" and leverage existing hardware. Here, the "Hype-to-Crash" cycle has compressed from decades into 3–5 years. Bubble #5 (SMR/Uranium) is a return to physics . You cannot "copy-paste" a ton of uranium or spawn a thousand nuclear reactors overnight. This cycle is tied to the slow, fundamental commodities super-cycle. It will not unfold in a few years, but likely over two or three decades. It is the most reliable strategic asset, for without autonomous, uninterruptible nuclear energy, the entire technocratic machine simply cannot exist. ________________________________________ 🏁 Summary and Conclusions ________________________________________ There is the panoramic view. As you read this in early 2026, you are not looking at a chaotic market, but a shift in structural priorities. We have seen that 50 years of financial "excess" were not mistakes or system "bugs"—they were the "features" of a successful engineering project to fund the Technocracy: ✅ Past (Bubbles #1, #2, #3) - DONE: Data collection, connectivity, and the creation of algorithms and AI are largely complete. ▶️ Present (Bubble #4) - START: Capital is migrating into DLT/Tokenization to bring order to global assets. 🎯 Future (Bubble #5) - STRATEGY: Strategic capital is already taking positions in Uranium and SMRs, recognizing the final, most fundamental asset of the New Technocratic Order . The construction of this New Babylon through the Five Bubbles is not a future dream; it is a global conceptual project using the crowd's speculative mania as a capital pump . Your task is to understand which stage of construction the money is flowing into—and to avoid being the one who buys "idols" at their peak once their mission is complete. A project of this scale does not rely on a single generation of investors or a single nation-state. The emerging Technocracy does not care who sits in the Oval Office. This is a multi-generational, long-term blueprint orchestrated by supra-national conceptual power . These forces move the needle behind the scenes, far from the "theatre of democracy" and the temporary political actors shown on the mainstream news. Those who truly hold the strings of global management will never be televised. 1️⃣ Strategy for 2026–2028: DLT and Debt Absorption (Bubble #4) The next "idol" the market will deify is Digital Money (Stablecoins/CBDCs), Tokenization, and DLT . Capital will migrate en masse into technologies promising absolute transparency and automated accounting. This is an inevitable mania designed to digitize assets and—cynically—provide the technical framework for "writing off" the legacy debts of the old hegemon. The plan: accumulate the crypto-assets discussed in this analysis monthly throughout 2026 (ideally starting in the summer) with a focus on 2028. The goal is not to "catch the bottom," but to deliberately build a portfolio while the panic-stricken crowd is selling. 2️⃣ Strategy for 2026–2050: The Foundation of Autonomy (Bubble #5) The most coveted asset of the Technocracy is invulnerability. Invulnerability equals autonomous nuclear energy. While speculators are driven into the RWA/DLT bubble in 2027–2028—tokenizing their last remaining possessions—strategic capital will have already occupied positions in assets that power the "AI Brain" for decades. We are talking about Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) and the raw materials that fuel them. To survive the 2026 crisis, the subsequent 2029–2033 depression, and ultimately enter the Brave New World of Cyberpunk , your primary task is not to be part of the distracted masses . Do not buy the "idols" at their peak when their mission is already accomplished. Instead, use the 2026 collapse of the "AI-idiocracy" as a window for strategic positioning . The core purpose of the ideas published on this channel is to cultivate a broad, objective, panoramic vision for my subscribers. This conceptual clarity is achieved through constant self-work: maintaining a sober mind, developing critical thinking, and utilizing impartial logic. Do not follow the herd as it gallops toward the abyss in yet another fit of FOMO and euphoria. Our goal is for as many rational and enlightened individuals as possible to pass through the "bottleneck" of 2020–2030. We want you to emerge from the hybrid chaos of the current era, the burst of Bubble #4, and the resulting Great Depression 2.0, as survivors ready for the future. Happy New Year! Support this idea with a 🚀 rocket and a constructive 💭 comment to keep it from drowning in the ocean of useless information noise. 🙏 "Thank you for your attention to this matter"© ☘️ Good luck, stay safe! 📟 Over and out.
FX:NAS100Education
by T_A_R_A_S
SPX500 Price Action Hinges on 6918 PivotSPX500 | Market Outlook U.S. stock futures opened notably higher on Friday, the first trading day of 2026, after Wall Street recorded a third consecutive year of gains in 2025. Markets navigated tariff disputes, the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, geopolitical tensions, and concerns over central bank independence. Investors are now focused on next week’s U.S. payrolls report for labor-market signals, while attention remains on the Federal Reserve. Speculation has increased after reports that Donald Trump is expected to name Jerome Powell’s successor early this year, raising expectations of a potentially more dovish policy shift. TECHNICAL VIEW (SPX500) The index is showing signs of a corrective move toward 6918. While trading below 6918, bearish momentum is expected to resume A rejection from 6918 would support downside pressure toward 6880, followed by 6866 and 6813 Alternatively: A 4H candle close above 6918 would invalidate the bearish bias and signal bullish momentum toward 6946 and 6990 Key Levels Pivot Line: 6918 Support: 6880 – 6866 – 6813 Resistance: 6946 – 6990
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by SroshMayi
1
FRIDAY JAN 2ND 26 - TRADING IDEAIMO, Friday trading session will start with a drop going into the ~6778-6820 range then we might see a good rebound, might be a red to green as the market will be touching the bottom of the upward channel on the DAILY chart and usually many buyers will step in at the bottom of the channel + ~6780 is a strong support. Trading idea: within the first 30 mins see how the market moves then buy puts and flip when we reach the bottom, this also is subject to normal market conditions (i.e. this is assuming NO sudden catalysts) Disclaimer: THIS IS NOT AN ADVICE GOOD LUCK TRADING
SPREADEX:SPXLong
by OdteTRADER26
S&P 500 Hits ATH — Fake Breakout & Start of a Major Correction?The S&P 500 Index ( OANDA:SPX500USD ), as I previously expected , has begun to rise and even reached a New All-Time High($6,823). It appears that the S&P 500 Index has lost its uptrend line and is currently moving just above the resistance zone($6,930_$6,892). The key point here is that this break above the resistance zone($6,930_$6,892) hasn’t occurred with high volume, and there’s also a noticeable Regular Divergence (RD-). From an Elliott Wave perspective, it seems that the S&P 500 Index has completed main wave 5 at the new All-Time High(ATH), indicating a potential fake breakout above the resistance level. I expect that the S&P 500 Index may begin to decline and could drop at least to around $6,879, with the next target potentially filling a Runaway Gap($6,857.80_$6,850.80). What are your thoughts on the S&P 500 Index? How do you see the U.S. stock market unfolding in 2026? I’d love to hear your opinion! First Target: $6,879 Second Target: Runaway Gap($6,857.80_$6,850.80) Stop Loss(SL): $6,952 Note: A decline in the S&P 500 index could also affect Bitcoin( BINANCE:BTCUSDT )(due to Bitcoin's correlation with the S&P 500 index). 💡 Please respect each other's opinions and express agreement or disagreement politely. 📌S&P 500 Index Analyze (SPX500USD), 1-hour time frame. 🛑 Always set a Stop Loss(SL) for every position you open. ✅ This is just my idea; I’d love to see your thoughts too! 🔥 If you find it helpful, please BOOST this post and share it with your friends.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by pejman_zwin
1
SPX500 Under Pressure as Fed Signals Caution | Key Level 6880U.S. Futures Ease on Fed Caution | SPX500 Outlook U.S. stock futures edged lower on Wednesday after Wall Street indexes declined for a third consecutive session, as investors continued rotating out of big tech stocks. Market sentiment remained under pressure following the Federal Reserve’s December meeting minutes, which showed internal divisions over the recent rate cut. Several officials preferred keeping rates unchanged “for some time”, citing concerns that the disinflation process may be losing momentum. TECHNICAL VIEW (SPX500) The price maintains a bearish momentum while trading below the pivot line. A move below 6880 opens the path toward 6865 A 1H candle close below 6865 would confirm bearish continuation toward 6835 and 6813 However, a corrective rebound remains possible: While holding above 6880, the price may attempt a recovery toward the 6918 resistance zone Pivot Line: 6880 Support: 6865 – 6835 – 6813 Resistance: 6918 – 6945 – 6990
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by SroshMayi
ES (SPX, SPY) Analysis, Key Levels, Setups for Wed (Dec 31st)Market Outlook for December 31, 2025 (NY Session) As we approach the end of the year, investors should be aware of key economic data slated for release that could influence the equity markets, particularly the E-mini S&P 500 (ES). Economic Calendar (All Times Eastern) 07:00 – MBA Mortgage Applications While typically seen as a low-impact indicator, this data will be closely watched for any surprises due to its sensitivity to interest rates. 08:30 – Initial Jobless Claims This report has been advanced this week as Thursday is a federal holiday. Given its implications for labor market strength, it could have noteworthy effects on investor sentiment. 10:00 – NY Fed Corporate Bond Market Distress Index This indicator serves as a pulse on credit market conditions. A significant change here could signal broader market stress. 10:30 – EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report The release of this report comes at a time of heightened scrutiny on energy prices and inflationary pressures. It's advisable to keep an eye on potential spillover effects into the broader indices. Market Structure Note Please note that while the US stock market will be open for regular trading hours, the US bond market will have an early close at 2:00 PM ET. This adjusted schedule may influence trading volumes and market dynamics as we wind down the year. Market Analysis: The Path Ahead Amid Holiday-Induced Thin Trading The trading session was marked by subdued yet erratic price movements, a natural consequence of reduced market participation during the holiday season. Despite some fluctuations, traders largely refrained from aggressively pursuing dips, while upward movements faced difficulties in maintaining momentum. In the macroeconomic landscape, the recently released Federal Reserve minutes underscored significant internal divisions regarding prospective interest rate cuts. This lack of consensus diminishes certainty about future rate adjustments, extending uncertainty into early 2026. As we approach year-end, upcoming trading dynamics will be affected. With Wednesday signaling the final trading day of the year, participants should anticipate a landscape characterized by uneven liquidity. This could lead to increased volatility, particularly around key support and resistance levels, with a heightened potential for stop hunts as markets test widely recognized highs and lows. Overnight NY Market Forecast: A Scenario Analysis As we observe the market dynamics, we present a scenario plan that outlines potential movements for the coming hours. Base Case: Currently, the market is oriented towards a bearish sentiment while trading below the 6950-6953 range. We anticipate a two-way trading environment within the 6928-6950 band, characterized by sharper price fluctuations than typically expected as we approach year-end. Bullish Scenario: A definitive reclaim and sustained trading above 6953.50 would open pathways for an upward movement into the 6958-6961 range, and potentially to the psychological level of 6969-6970 thereafter. Bearish Scenario: Conversely, a significant breach below 6928.25 could trigger a cascade towards 6926.25, followed rapidly by 6918.00. Should selling pressure intensify, the 6900 mark may become the next focal point for traders. SETUP 1 (A++) - Long - Reclaim and go (support to value) Entry • Buy 6934.00-6935.00 (only after the reclaim hold is visible) Hard SL • 6925.75 (below 6926.25, with extra buffer) Targets • TP1 6953.50 • TP2 6957.75 • TP3 6961.50 SETUP 2 (A++) - Short - Rejection fade from upper cap (premium to PDL) Entry • Sell 6956.75-6958.00 Hard SL • 6964.00 (above the 6961.50/6960.75 cap with buffer) Targets • TP1 6940.75 • TP2 6930.00 • TP3 6918.00 Good Luck !!!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
2
S&P500 rally pause, bullish consolidation? Key Support and Resistance Levels Resistance Level 1: 6946 Resistance Level 2: 6966 Resistance Level 3: 7005 Support Level 1: 6869 Support Level 2: 6847 Support Level 3: 6828 This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:US500
by Trade Nation
S&P500 rejection can cause a very bearish start to 2026.The S&P500 index (SPX) hit last Friday its Higher Highs trend-line and got rejected, so far not aggressively. The 1D RSI rejection though on a Lower Highs trend-line that goes as back as the September 22 High, illustrates a massive Bearish Divergence (Lower Highs against price's Higher Highs), has the potential to accelerate the decline first to the 1D MA100 (red trend-line) and then the lower Support Zone. As long as the Higher Highs trend-line holds, we expect the index to target 6510 (top of Support Zone) at least within January 2026. --- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** --- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by TradingShot
6
SPX500: Bullish Push to 7000?As the previous analysis worked exactly as predicted, FX:SPX500 is eyeing a bullish breakout on the 4-hour chart , with price rebounding from a key support zone near the upward channel's lower boundary, converging with a potential entry area that could ignite upside momentum if buyers defend against dips. This setup suggests a continuation opportunity amid the ongoing uptrend, targeting higher resistance levels with 1:2.5 risk-reward .🔥 Entry between 6860–6890 for a long position (entry at current price with proper risk management is recommended). Target at 7000 . Set a stop loss at a daily close below 6845 , yielding a risk-reward ratio of 1:2.5 . Monitor for confirmation via a bullish candle close above entry with rising volume, leveraging the index's resilience in the channel.🌟 📝 Trade Setup 🎯 Entry (Long): 6860 – 6890 (Entry at or near current levels is valid with proper risk & capital management.) 🎯 Target: • 7000 ❌ Stop Loss: • Daily close below 6845 ⚖️ Risk-to-Reward: • ~ 1:2.5 💡 Your view? Does SPX500 defend the channel support and break toward 7000 — or do we see another consolidation before the next leg higher? 👇
FX:SPX500Long
by Master_Hunter
1
Investment Logic: Why Gold Leads This Market CycleInvestment Logic Explained: Metals as the Preferred Asset in This Cycle The performance gap shown in the table is not accidental. It reflects a clear capital rotation driven by macroeconomic realities in 2025. While equities and Bitcoin struggled to generate real returns, precious metals led by gold emerged as the dominant beneficiaries of this cycle. This shift is rooted in monetary policy, geopolitical risk, and the market’s renewed focus on capital preservation rather than speculation. Gold: The Core Beneficiary of the 2025 Macro Environment Gold’s +67.3% appreciation this year is a direct response to persistent global uncertainty and a structural shift in monetary expectations. Central banks maintained a cautious stance as inflation remained sticky, while real yields compressed amid expectations of policy easing into 2026. In this environment, gold regained its role as the primary store of value offering protection against currency debasement, sovereign risk, and declining confidence in fiat systems. Importantly, gold’s rise was not driven by hype or leverage. It was supported by sustained institutional demand, central bank accumulation, and a steady increase in long-term holdings. This is the hallmark of a healthy, macro driven trend rather than a speculative rally. Silver and Platinum: Beta Plays on the Same Thesis Silver and platinum significantly outperformed gold, but their gains should be viewed as extensions of the same macro logic. As confidence in hard assets strengthened, capital flowed into metals with tighter supply dynamics and industrial demand exposure. These moves typically follow gold’s lead in the later stages of a precious metals cycle amplifying returns but also volatility. For professional traders, gold remains the anchor. Silver and platinum offer upside asymmetry, but gold defines the directional bias of the entire metals complex. Why Equities and Bitcoin Lagged The S&P’s modest +17.7% gain underscores a year dominated by valuation compression rather than expansion. Elevated rates, earnings uncertainty, and geopolitical risk limited upside. Bitcoin’s −9.3% decline further highlights the difference between speculative assets and defensive capital. As liquidity tightened and risk appetite normalized, capital favored assets with intrinsic value and macro credibility areas where gold excels and Bitcoin currently does not. Professional Takeaway: This Is a Capital Preservation Cycle This cycle is not about chasing exponential upside. It is about protecting purchasing power, managing risk, and aligning with macro flows. Gold sits at the center of this framework. Its performance reflects disciplined capital allocation by institutions, not retail enthusiasm. Until global monetary stability is restored and real yields turn decisively positive, gold is likely to remain a preferred asset. For traders, the message is clear: follow structure, follow liquidity, and respect macro regimes. In 2025, gold was not just a trade it was the benchmark for intelligent capital positioning.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by RexTraderGOLD
1
Hellena | SPX500 (4H): LONG to resistance area of 7010.Colleagues, I expect the upward movement in the medium-term wave “1” to continue. The minor wave “3” should still be developing, and I expect a repeat update of the high of the higher-order wave “3” (6929.4). I consider the 7010 area to be the nearest target. If we calculate using Fibonacci expansion, the target is higher, but I always play it safe and take the nearest targets. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by Hellena_Trade
1
SPX500 Rises as Traders Aim to Close the Year at Record HighsSPX500 | Overview S&P 500 Rises as Traders Look to Wrap Up the Year at Record Highs With only a few sessions left before 2025 officially ends, the S&P 500 continues to show resilience, on track to secure roughly +18% gains for the year. Markets remain within the Santa Claus rally window, a historically positive period spanning year-end and early January. Attention now turns to Fed Minutes, the final major macro checkpoint before traders fully shift focus to 2026. With the data calendar light, a calm and patient Fed tone could be enough to keep equities grinding higher and potentially lock in new record closes. Technically: SPX500 maintains a bullish structure as long as price holds above the pivot line at 6918. While trading above this level, upside momentum is expected to continue toward 6957 and 6990. However, a 1H or 4H candle close below 6918 would signal a bearish correction, opening the way toward 6895 and 6880. Key Levels Pivot Line: 6918 Resistance: 6957 · 6990 Support: 6895 · 6880 Outlook: SPX500 remains bullish above 6918, targeting 6957–6990 as year-end momentum persists. A confirmed 1H/4H close below 6918 would shift the bias to bearish correction, with downside toward 6895–6880.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by SroshMayi
MES – NY Open BreakdownBias remains bullish, but MES moves with a lot more intention. Double top formed, neckline broke, and now I’m looking for a measured pullback into value. I’ve mapped out two buy zones and I’m letting price do the work: 🟩 Buy Zone 1 First area of interest. I’ll look for structure, acceptance, and continuation before getting involved. 🟩 Buy Zone 2 Lower zone. If we pull back deeper, I’m happy to wait for a cleaner, higher-quality setup there. MES doesn’t usually sprint, it walks you into the trade if you’re patient enough 🧘‍♂️ NY open will tell me whether there’s opportunity or just noise. Either way, no forcing trades. Process first. Execution second.
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by natron
1
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Dec 26, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: During this shortened holiday trading session, the S&P 500 Index achieved a significant milestone by completing the highly anticipated Outer Index Rally target of 6,945, surpassing the Key Resistance level of 6,905, which had been forecasted over a considerable period. At this time, upon the above-mentioned target completion, the index market experienced an admirable pullback; the downside target is currently set at Mean Support 6.877. It is, however, essential to acknowledge that, given the market's recent gains, there is a substantial likelihood that prices may exhibit an upward fluctuation near this completed target. Additionally, there remains the potential for further upward movement before the anticipated alignment with the projected downward trajectory.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
S&P 500 Index Approaches the 7,000-Point LevelOver the past five trading sessions, the U.S. equity index S&P 500 (SPX) has maintained a consistent bullish bias, posting gains of more than 2% in the short term and moving closer to the psychological 7,000-point level. For now, the index has managed to sustain firm buying pressure, supported by optimism around potential interest rate cuts in 2026 by the Federal Reserve. This scenario could foster a lower cost of borrowing, helping market liquidity remain stable while supporting investment and consumption—key pillars for equity market confidence. If this perception holds, it could continue to act as a positive catalyst allowing the SPX to maintain sustained buying pressure toward the close of 2025. As long as confidence remains in place, buying pressure may continue to shape short-term price action. The Bullish Trend Holds For several months now, the SPX has sustained a consistent bullish trend across its average price movements, keeping the index very close to the 7,000-point area. At this stage, no meaningful bearish corrections have emerged that would threaten the bullish technical structure, which remains the dominant formation to monitor. However, it is important to note that as prices have reached new highs in recent sessions, a sense of neutrality has begun to appear in price action. If this indecision persists, it could open the door to short-term bearish corrections. RSI At present, the RSI remains above the neutral 50 level, suggesting that average momentum over the past 14 sessions continues to favor buyers. However, a notable technical development has emerged: while the SPX price posts higher highs, the RSI shows lower highs, forming a bearish divergence. This pattern may signal a recent excess in buying pressure, increasing the likelihood of selling corrections in the coming trading sessions. MACD The MACD continues to display a histogram oscillating very close to the neutral zero line, reflecting persistent neutrality in short-term moving average momentum. If this behavior continues, it may point to an ongoing indecision phase in SPX price action, potentially allowing for a period of consolidation and the emergence of short-term pullbacks. Key Levels to Watch 7,000 points – Key resistance: A major psychological level that stands out as the most relevant resistance given the lack of prior price references. Sustained moves above this area could trigger a more aggressive bullish bias and extend the current uptrend. 6,900 points – Nearby support: A level associated with the neutrality observed around recent all-time highs. Price action holding near this zone could reinforce a more stable consolidation phase and favor the formation of a short-term sideways range. 6,800 points – Major support: An area where the bullish trendline aligns with the 50-period simple moving average. Bearish moves below this level could put the broader bullish structure at risk and open the door to a more dominant selling bias in the sessions ahead. Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by FOREX.com
3
ES (SPX, SPY) Analysis, Key Zone, Setups for Fri (Dec 26)Market Overview: Context for Tomorrow Trend Analysis: The market maintains a risk-on sentiment as we approach the holiday period, characterized by strong index performance accompanied by light trading volume. This condition often results in a “grind up or chop up” scenario, although we may witness abrupt price movements due to diminished liquidity. E-mini S&P 500 (ES) Positioning: Currently, prices are situated in the upper range of the recent swing high, indicating a premium area. This positioning heightens the probability of a retracement towards mid-range levels before any further upward momentum takes place. Looking Ahead to Tomorrow: Investors should anticipate one of two scenarios: (a) a decisive dip that finds support at the Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) or Value Area Low (VAL), followed by a re-acceleration towards the Previous Day High (PDH) or Value Area High (VAH), or (b) a definitive rejection at the PDH/VAH that results in a retracement back to the VWAP/VAL zone. Event Risk - Friday Schedule (ET): Macro Releases: No major U.S. economic data is scheduled for release tomorrow. Notable Item: The NY Fed Staff Nowcast will be published at 11:45 a.m. ET, though it typically produces limited market impact relative to key indicators like CPI or NFP. Implications for the Market: With fewer scheduled economic shocks on the calendar, we can expect a market environment driven more by trading flows than by significant data releases, indicative of a "holiday hangover" effect. New York Session Forecast As we head into the New York trading session, the anticipated price path for the day suggests a cautious approach. The primary range rotation is centered around key levels at 6982.50 (Y-POC) and 6976.75 (VWAP). We expect two-way trading to persist within the confines of 6971.50 to 6988.50 until we see a clearer indication of cash volume dynamics in New York. Bullish Scenario: In a bullish scenario, we would need to maintain support in the range of 6976.75 to 6971.50 on any pullbacks. A sustained rally would then target upward moves, aiming for 6988.00 to 6988.50. A decisive break above 6988.50 could trigger a significant advance towards the 6996 to 7000 range. Bearish Scenario: Conversely, if we experience a failed attempt to break into the 6988.00 to 6996 area—indicative of a lack of acceptance—we may see a pullback towards 6976.75. A breach of the critical support at 6971.50 could lead to testing lower levels at 6962.75 and 6957.25. A++ SETUP 1 - LONG (pullback reclaim) Entry: 6976.75-6971.50 Trigger: 15m tags pocket and closes back above 6976.75 -> 5m higher-low -> 1m pullback holds then push SL: 6966.00 • TP1: 6988.50 • TP2: 6996.00-7000.00 • TP3: 7006.00-7012.00 A++ SETUP 2 - SHORT (top rejection) Entry: 6988.00-6996.00 Trigger: 15m pushes into band then closes back below 6988.50 -> 5m lower-high -> 1m pullback fails then drop SL: 6999.00 • TP1: 6971.50 • TP2: 6962.75 • TP3: 6957.25 Good Luck !!!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
Hellena | SPX500 (4H): LONG to the area of 6956.Hello, colleagues! I previously published a forecast for an upward movement, and I believe it is time to update the plan slightly. The direction of movement remains the same, but wave “1” has lengthened, which means that the correction in wave “2” may occur slightly higher than previously. I expect a corrective movement to the support area of 6764, followed by a continuation of the upward movement and an update of the peak level of wave “3” of the higher order 6929 and reaching the area of 6956 at a minimum. An extension of wave “1” is also possible, but then it will be necessary to slightly revise the wave markings again. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by Hellena_Trade
12
SPX500 | Santa Rally Pushes Index Toward New ATHSPX500 | Technical & Fundamental Overview The S&P 500 hit a new record high, extending its winning streak for the fourth consecutive session as the Santa Rally continues to support bullish sentiment. U.S. GDP grew at a 4.3% annualized pace in Q3, the fastest growth in two years and well above expectations. Strong consumer spending drove the expansion, easing concerns that a cooling labor market could weigh on household demand and reinforcing confidence in the U.S. economic outlook. Technical Outlook SPX500 is currently trading near its all-time highs (ATH). The structure suggests a potential breakout to a new ATH around 6957, especially if the price can close a 1H or 4H candle above 6920. If the market fails to hold above 6920, a retest or consolidation toward the 6895 area may occur before the next directional move. Key Levels Pivot Line: 6920 Support: 6897, 6880 Resistance: 6955, 6990 Bias: Bullish above 6920; corrective below it.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by SroshMayi