S&P 500 (SPX500)
The S&P 500 index remains positive against all oddsThe S&P 500 index remains positive against all odds
We noted on 29 September that, amid the US shutdown, sentiment in the S&P 500 index market remained positive, and highlighted factors supporting further growth.
Today, the S&P 500 index reached a fresh all‑time high: on Friday morning the price rose above 6 740 points. This confirms the continued optimism among market participants. Today this is supported by news related to the creators of ChatGPT.
According to media reports, OpenAI:
→ has reached a valuation of $500 billion following a deal in which current and former employees sold shares worth around $6.6 billion;
→ is expanding cooperation with semiconductor manufacturers in South Korea, which is expected to sustain the company’s high growth rate.
Thus, OpenAI’s successes are boosting investor optimism ahead of the upcoming earnings season.
These and other positive developments might have been overshadowed by the regular Non‑Farm Employment Change report (and other US labour market data), but the Bureau of Labour Statistics is closed due to the shutdown.
Technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart
Recent data on the 4‑hour chart of the S&P 500 index underline sustained optimism, as the price develops within a previously established ascending channel, highlighted in blue.
From a bullish perspective:
→ bulls showed strength by breaking a local resistance level at 6 700, which later acted as support (indicated by an arrow);
→ local peaks allow for steeper upward trendlines to be drawn;
→ if the move from A→B is seen as the main impulse and B→C as a correction, the correction appears shallow, as the reversal upwards occurred from the 0.382 Fibonacci level, highlighting strong demand.
From a bearish perspective:
→ the price is approaching the upper boundary of the channel, where profit‑taking by long holders is typical;
→ the current peak on the e‑mini S&P 500 chart slightly exceeds the October high (A), suggesting the potential for a bearish divergence;
→ the absence of news creates an “information vacuum” that could significantly influence market sentiment if filled with negative data.
Nonetheless, optimism persists, with Tom Lee (Fundstrat) forecasting that the S&P 500 index will exceed 7 000 points by year‑end.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Is ES1! Setting Up for Another Leg Up? Layer Entry Plan💼 ES1! | E-Mini S&P 500 Futures | Thief Market Wealth Strategy Map (Swing/Day Trade) 🚀📈
📊 Plan: Bullish Bias
We are mapping the ES1! (E-Mini S&P 500 Futures) with a thief layering strategy for flexible swing/day trading.
Thief Entry Layers (Layering Strategy Method)
Instead of “one-shot” entries, we use multiple buy limit layers to scale into the move.
💰 Example entry levels:
🔹 6720
🔹 6740
🔹 6760
(👉 Add more layers if you wish, that’s the thief flexibility 🔑)
🛡 Stop-Loss (Thief SL)
📉 6680
⚠ Note: Dear Ladies & Gentlemen (Thief OG’s), I’m not recommending to strictly follow my SL. Manage your own risk — protect your capital thief-style.
🎯 Target (Profit Escape Zone)
📈 6900 — key resistance area + potential overbought zone = possible bull trap!
💡 Escape with profits thief-style before the market traps late buyers.
⚠ Note: Dear Ladies & Gentlemen (Thief OG’s), I’m not recommending to strictly follow my TP. Take your own exit when you steal your bag.
🔑 Key Points & Correlations
🟢 ES1! (S&P 500 futures) often correlates with:
CME_MINI:NQ1! (Nasdaq Futures) 📡 Tech-driven momentum
CBOT_MINI:YM1! (Dow Futures) 🏦 Old-school industrials
CME_MINI:RTY1! (Russell Futures) 📈 Small-cap sentiment gauge
TVC:VIX (Volatility Index) ⚡ Inverse relationship with risk-on moves
Watching these markets helps filter fake pumps and identify real liquidity grabs.
⚡ Thief Trading Philosophy
This is not about exact entries — it’s about layering, adapting, and escaping with profits before the crowd realizes.
Steal pips.
Escape traps.
Repeat.
✨ “If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated — it helps me share more setups with the community!”
⚠ Disclaimer: This is a Thief-Style Trading Strategy Map, created just for fun and market observation. This is NOT financial advice. Trade at your own risk and always manage your capital wisely.
#ES1 #SP500 #SPX #Futures #DayTrading #SwingTrading #IndexTrading #MarketAnalysis #TradingStrategy #ThiefTrader #ScalpAndRun
Microstategy Vs Bitcoin Vs SP500Can you see the correlation? SP500 controls BTC for the most part and therefore microstrategy.
MicroStrategy ( NASDAQ:MSTR ) has become a key proxy for Bitcoin exposure in traditional markets. With nearly 600,000 BTC on its balance sheet, its stock’s performance strongly correlates with Bitcoin’s price action.
In 2025, Bitcoin's correlation with the S&P 500 has climbed to 0.90, reflecting Bitcoin's growing role as a macroeconomic risk asset. MicroStrategy’s pending inclusion in the S&P 500 would force index funds to buy NASDAQ:MSTR shares, indirectly increasing institutional Bitcoin exposure through traditional equity portfolios.
This convergence shows how digital assets and major equity indices are increasingly intertwined, creating new pathways for Bitcoin adoption by institutional investors while tethering crypto markets closer to broader market dynamics.
#bitcoin #MSTR #SP500 #crypto #investing CBOE:MSTU AMEX:SPY
S&P500 pushing to a new ATH?The S&P 500 (+0.34%) pushed to another record high as Q4 began, showing resilience despite ongoing US government shutdown risks and a weaker ADP private payrolls report, which signaled contraction. Markets leaned on expectations of faster Fed rate cuts, with Treasury yields falling sharply as investors reassessed labor market strength.
Sector drivers:
Gold and defensive plays gained as shutdown uncertainty supported safe-haven demand.
Tech outperformed: OpenAI’s $500bn valuation lifted AI-linked sentiment, with gains spilling into suppliers like Samsung and SK Hynix.
Cybersecurity risk weighed on software names after hackers claimed a breach of Oracle’s E-Business Suite, demanding ransom payments.
Apple slipped on reports it is halting Vision Pro updates to prioritize AI glasses.
Market tone: Optimism around rate cuts and AI-driven growth continues to underpin the S&P 500, but shutdown risks and labor market fragility remain key watchpoints for near-term volatility.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 6750
Resistance Level 2: 6770
Resistance Level 3: 6800
Support Level 1: 6680
Support Level 2: 6660
Support Level 3: 6640
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
The corrective phase of the S&P
In my view, the S&P 500 index is forming a diametric pattern in the long-term timeframe, with wave (E) currently nearing completion. Following this, the index is expected to enter a corrective phase, which could involve both price and time corrections:
- The price correction may extend to the range of the drawn box, potentially dropping the index to 3,500 points.
- Alternatively, the price could decline to the 4,700–4,800 range and then consolidate over time to complete the time correction.
Good luck
NEoWave Chart
S&P500 H1 | Bullish Momentum Extending FurtherBased on the H1 chart analysis, we could see the price fall to the buy entry at 6,682.33, which is a pullback support and could bounce from this level to the upside.
Stop loss is at 6,651.10, which is a pullback support.
Take profit is at 6,731.11, which line sup with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 65% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
$SPX500 by all metrix this is overboughtMarkets can stay irrational longer than we can stay solvent. Right now, we’re at the top of this megaphone pattern, with everything extremely overbought in epic fashion.
⚠️ Caution: the odds of a serious correction are high — the chart points to a potential target around $5,650.
Sure, the madness can continue. The Fed can keep printing USD that pours into stocks instead of the real economy — until people are jobless, starving, and rioting for food.
📈 Enjoy the rally while it lasts, but use stop-losses. This market is dangerously overheated.
The AI Bubble's Final Act II: The Convergence TightensRetail flushed. Institutions trapped. The Fed flying blind. Welcome to October.
The AI Bubble's Final Act II: The Convergence Tightens
Why the AI Bubble Narrative Just Got Its Lehman Moment
This post is a direct sequel to my September thesis: If you haven’t read that, start there⬇️ - this builds on the trigger map 🗺️.
The BLUEBERRY:SP500 continues hovering near cycle highs at 6,700, but structural cracks are widening beneath the surface. The AI-led rally driven by NASDAQ:NVDA $100 billion commitment to OpenAI shows classic signs of saturation: volume decay, RSI divergence, and what analysts are now calling "circular financing." Nvidia invests $100 billion in OpenAI, which then turns around and spends it back on Nvidia chips - this is the capex circularity that marks bubble peaks.
With the U.S. government shutdown now confirmed as of October 1, 2025, macro liquidity stress adds a critical new layer of fragility. This aligns perfectly with our thesis: August CME:BTC1! top + September 30 shutdown = narrative inflection zone. I remain cautious on TVC:SPX upside and alert for volatility expansion.
Cycle echoes from 2007-2008 are in play. The boom is fragile. The Fed now faces a critical blindfold - key data streams are frozen mid-cycle. Without payrolls, inflation prints, or consumer metrics during the shutdown, policy decisions risk catastrophic miscalibration at the exact moment when precision matters most.
🧭 Why This Convergence Matters
I am not claiming that IG:BITCOIN and SP:SPX are traditionally correlated - even though the chart shows an eerily close alignment over the past decade. I'm mapping trigger timing across asset classes - the simultaneous exhaustion of different market participants:
BTC top (August 2025) = Retail exhaustion. The most speculative, leveraged traders have already been flushed out. When crypto peaks first, it signals risk appetite is rolling over.
SPX stall (September 2025) = Institutional fragility. The "smart money" that rotated from crypto into AI stocks is now trapped at peak valuations with nowhere left to rotate.
Shutdown (October 1, 2025) = Macro blindfold. Just as markets need maximum visibility, the government turns off the economic data dashboard. The Fed is flying blind.
Together, they form a convergent signal - just like Lehman + SP:SPX top + credit freeze in September 2008 . These weren't correlated, they were coincidental triggers that revealed the same underlying disease: excess leverage meeting liquidity shock.
📌 The Three Inflection Markers
🔹 Nvidia's $100B Commitment to OpenAI
📆 Date: September 22, 2025
Details: NASDAQ:NVDA pledged up to $100 billion to deploy 10 gigawatts of AI infrastructure for OpenAI progressively, marking peak capex saturation in the AI infrastructure buildout.
The Circular Financing Problem: Think of it like a closed-loop economy where the same money keeps circulating without creating real external demand. NASDAQ:NVDA invests $100 billion in OpenAI, which OpenAI then gives back to NASDAQ:NVDA for chips and infrastructure. This isn't wealth creation, it's musical chairs with capital. When the music stops, the question becomes: who's actually making money selling AI services to end customers?
Echo: Mirrors NASDAQ:CSCO dot-com era infrastructure frenzy, when telecom companies borrowed billions to buy Cisco equipment, creating the illusion of sustainable demand until the debt bubble popped.
🔹 The Cisco Precedent: When Infrastructure Investment Becomes Speculation
📆 Date: March 27, 2000
Peak Valuation: ~$550 billion - briefly the most valuable company in the world
The Story: During the dot-com boom, everyone "knew" the internet would change everything. They were right. But NASDAQ:CSCO still crashed 70%+ and never regained its 2000 peak even 25 years later.
Why? Capex-driven euphoria created demand that didn't exist organically. Telecom companies and startups borrowed money to build infrastructure faster than actual usage could justify. When funding dried up, demand evaporated overnight, leaving NASDAQ:CSCO with inventory, overcapacity, and shocked investors.
2025 Parallel: Everyone "knows" AI will change everything. They're probably right. But that doesn't mean NASDAQ:NVDA at current valuations survives the transition. The infrastructure buildout is running ahead of monetizable demand - classic late-cycle behavior.
🔹 U.S. Government Shutdown - The Macro Blindfold
📆 Start Date: October 1, 2025 at 12:01 AM
Trigger: Congressional deadlock over partisan spending bill and healthcare provisions
The Economic Data Blackout: During shutdowns, critical federal data releases get delayed or suspended:
Bureau of Labor Statistics (jobs reports, unemployment, wage data)
Bureau of Economic Analysis (GDP, consumer spending, inflation components)
Census Bureau (retail sales, construction, housing data)
Federal Reserve inputs for policy decisions
Why This Is Catastrophic Timing: The Fed is trying to navigate a soft landing while cutting ECONOMICS:USINTR rates with unemployment ECONOMICS:USUR rising. That requires precise, real-time data. Instead, they're getting a multi-week (or multi-month) information blackout at the exact moment when leading indicators are rolling over. It's like turning off your GPS while driving through a construction zone at night.
Historical Parallel - 2008: Bear Stearns collapsed in March 2008, but the Fed thought they'd contained it. Lehman failed in September because policymakers were operating on lagged, incomplete data about how quickly the contagion was spreading. The shutdown creates a similar fog of war.
The Convergence Thesis: Three Dominoes, One Direction
These three events aren't causing each other - they're revealing the same underlying condition: peak leverage meeting exhaustion.
1️⃣ Stage 1 (August): Retail speculators in crypto get wiped out first. BTC tops at $109K, starts rolling over. This is the canary in the coal mine - the most risk-seeking capital runs out of buyers.
2️⃣ Stage 2 (September): Institutional money realizes the AI trade is overcrowded. Nvidia's circular financing deal with OpenAI triggers analyst warnings about an AI bubble. Smart money starts quietly rotating to cash and defensives, but the indexes stay elevated due to passive flows and concentration in mega-caps.
3️⃣ Stage 3 (October): Government dysfunction removes the Fed's ability to respond quickly or accurately. Markets lose confidence that policymakers can even see the problems, let alone fix them. Volatility expands as uncertainty compounds.
Think of it like a forest fire. INDEX:BTCUSD was the dry brush catching first. The AI stocks are the trees - bigger, but still combustible. The government shutdown is the wind that accelerates the spread. You don't need correlation between brush, trees, and wind to know the conditions are perfect for disaster.
What Happens Next: The Three Scenarios
🟠 Scenario 1: Controlled Decline (45% probability)
Shutdown resolved within 2-3 weeks
SP:SPX corrects to 6,400-6,200 range (-5 to -10%)
Fed pauses cuts, reassesses within Q4
Market stabilizes but stays defensive through year-end
This is the "best case" - pain, but manageable
🔵 Scenario 2: Accelerated Unwind (40% probability)
Shutdown extends 4+ weeks, economic data gap widens
SPX breaks 6,000, triggers algorithmic selling cascade
Target: 5,200-5,500 range (-20 to -25%)
Credit spreads widen, corporate debt refinancing concerns emerge
This is my base case - the scenario I'm positioned for
🔴 Scenario 3: Systemic Event (15% probability)
Shutdown coincides with unexpected credit event (corporate default, regional bank stress)
Multiple margin calls and forced liquidations
SPX crashes to 4,500-4,800 range (-30 to -35%)
Fed emergency intervention required (rate cuts, QE restart)
Low probability, but non-zero - the true "black swan" outcome
📊 Technical Setup: The Chart Doesn't Lie
Current Level: 6,700 (near all-time highs)
Key Support Levels:
6,200: Previous resistance turned support - first real test
5,800: 200-day moving average - psychological line in sand
5,200: Fibonacci 38.2% retracement - institutional rebalancing zone
4,500: 2024 breakout level - panic capitulation target
⚠️ Warning Signals Already Visible:
Market breadth deteriorating (fewer stocks making new highs)
Defensive sectors outperforming (utilities, healthcare, staples)
Credit spreads starting to widen (HYG/TLT ratio declining)
VIX base level rising from 12 to 16+ (fear premium expanding)
The Bottom Line: Risk/Reward Is Clear
At SP:SPX 6,700 with the Fed flying blind, AI capex circularity exposed, and retail already flushed from crypto CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL , the risk/reward for long positions is terrible. You're risking 10-15% to potentially gain what - another 3-5% before reality hits?
Smart money is raising cash, buying volatility, and preparing shopping lists for when quality names trade at distressed prices. The convergence of COINBASE:BTCUSD top, NASDAQ:NVDA circular financing peak, and government shutdown isn't causing a crisis - it's revealing that we're already in the early stages of one.
August was the warning. September was the setup. October is the trigger.
The market doesn't need to crash tomorrow, but the margin of safety has disappeared. When the next shoe drops - earnings disappointment, credit event, geopolitical shock, employment spike - there's no cushion left. Only air.
Position accordingly.
Until the next trigger - Nicholas.
Disclaimer: This post reflects my personal views and analysis. It is not financial advice. Please do your own research and manage risk accordingly.
Gold (Rose ) and SPX ( Jack ) relationship. 1/Oct/25XAUUSD ( Rose ) and SPX ( Jack ) since dunno when they are in closed relationship on "Titanic Ship".. But.. That "shxx" is obviously tilting heavily into 1 side.untill early/mid Oct at 7000 and 4000 nautical And when.Jack and Rose probably have to perform "you jump I jump"..But after that they will "ride" different "ships"..Where one still on sinking ship , the other is riding into "Titanic" sky ship"...
SPX500 H1 | Bearish Momentum BuildingS&P500 is rising towards the sell entry at 6,647.13, which is an overlap resistance and could drop from this level to the take profit.
Stop loss is at 6,681.57, which is a multi-swing high resistance.
Take profit is at 6,614.24, which is a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 65% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
ES (SPX, SPY) Analyses, Key-Zones, Setups For Wed, (Oct 1)News & event map (for tomorrow, Wed Oct 1)
• ADP National Employment Report – 8:15 ET. Official release time.
• S&P Global PMI (final) – 9:45 ET. Scheduled on the first working day; tomorrow’s calendar lists 09:45.
• ISM Manufacturing & Prices Paid – 10:00 ET. ISM releases on the first business day at 10:00.
• JOLTS: already published Tuesday; none expected Wednesday.
• Shutdown watch: if funding lapses at midnight, the Labor Dept./BLS suspends operations and economic data are delayed (e.g., Friday jobs report). Expect the market to lean more on private data (ADP/ISM).
Shutdown Overview – Trading Insights
Historically, equity markets have exhibited mixed to mildly positive performance during government shutdowns, with the S&P 500 averaging gains between 0% and +0.3% in prior instances. The primary concern during these periods tends to be short-term volatility and potential delays in economic data, rather than sustained market downturns. Notably, the long-term trend suggests that markets typically recover and trend higher in the months following the resolution of a shutdown.
Overnight projection (Asia→EU)
The baseline expectation is for range-building between 6693 and 6725, with potential liquidity runs at the confluence edges. We often see price dips below the 6693–6695 zone rebound towards 6703 or 6713. Conversely, a strong acceptance above 6720–6725 can lead to a probe into the 6740–6750 range before the New York session. If we see a clean 30-minute close below 6693, that could open up the move to 6676 and potentially 6653.
NY session game plan (Level-KZ Protocol 15/5/1)
Trade around the 8:15 and 10:00 windows; let the first impulse settle, then execute inside NY AM 09:30–11:00 and PM 13:30–16:00 kill-zones.
ES LONG Acceptance (A++) — Entries, SL, TPs
Bias: Only if 15m accepts above 6720–6725 (re-close & hold).
Entry: 5m pullback hold → 1m HL trigger 6721–6726.
SL: ≤6712.75 (beyond VWAP/IB-H) hard stop (±0.25–0.50).
TP1: 6743.5 (PDH) — take 70%, set runner BE.
TP2: 6750–6755 supply.
TP3: 6763–6768 stretch if ISM beats and breadth expands.
Invalidation: A 15m body back inside ≤6719 after entry.
ES SHORT Rejection (A++) — Entries, SL, TPs
Bias: Fade first test of 6740–6750 if 15m shows rejection (wick + close back inside).
Entry: 5m LH re-close below 6735–6738; 1m trigger.
SL: ≥6756.
TP1: 6720–6722.
TP2: 6703–6705 (Y-POC).
TP3: 6693–6695 (Y-VAL/ONL).
Invalidation: 15m acceptance above 6750.
S&P500 Short-term Bull Flag formed.The S&P500 index (SPX) has been trading within a Channel Up since the July 31 High. The price is currently on its 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), forming a Bull Flag after a 4H MA100 (green trend-line) rebound last Thursday.
This is similar to the Bull Flags of August 25 and 05, which both ended with a rise to the 1.236 Fibonacci extension. Even the 4H RSI sequences among the 3 fractals are similar with their Lower Highs structures. The only difference is that the price bottomed this time on the 4H MA100 (as mentioned), instead of the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) of the previous 3 times.
As a result, if this Bull Flag holds, we expect a quick rally to 6720 (just under Fib 1.236).
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S&P500 uptrend continuation?Key Drivers for S&P 500
Government shutdown risk: With no deal in sight and a 79% market-implied probability of a shutdown tomorrow, headline risk is elevated. Historically, most shutdowns have been short, but lingering political uncertainty could weigh on sentiment.
Rates & bonds: A global bond rally (10yr USTs -3.6bps) supported equities, particularly rate-sensitive and cyclical sectors. Lower yields are helping housing-linked names, as shown by the strong pending home sales data.
Commodities: Oil’s sharp decline (-3.45%, biggest drop since June) reduced inflation concerns and eased pressure on equities.
Sector performance: Gains were broad-based; cyclical sectors and construction materials led, while tech (NASDAQ +0.48%, Mag 7 +0.37%) outperformed. Equal-weighted S&P also rose (+0.32%), confirming breadth.
Safe haven demand: Gold’s rally highlights investor caution despite equity gains—suggesting hedging activity alongside risk-on moves.
S&P 500 Trading Takeaway
Equities remain resilient, closing near record highs with support from falling yields and softer oil prices. However, government shutdown risks and political uncertainty could cap upside near term. Expect headline-driven volatility with cyclical and tech sectors best positioned to extend gains if yields stay contained.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 6686
Resistance Level 2: 6710
Resistance Level 3: 6750
Support Level 1: 6600
Support Level 2: 6580
Support Level 3: 6556
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
SPX500 – Bearish Below 6,662 as Shutdown Risks Cloud Fed OutlookSPX500 – Overview
SPX500 is trading cautiously as Wall Street weighs the risk of a potential U.S. government shutdown and the Fed’s next policy steps.
The lack of clarity over upcoming economic data—especially if NFP is delayed—adds to volatility and makes short-term moves highly data- and headline-driven.
Technical Outlook
The index has stabilized below the 6,662 pivot, which supports ongoing bearish momentum.
→ As long as price stays under 6,662, downside targets are 6,635 and 6,617, with a further extension toward 6,580 if momentum accelerates.
However, if price stabilizes above 6,673, the bullish trend could resume toward 6,699 and higher.
Pivot: 6,662
Support: 6,635 – 6,617 – 6,580
Resistance: 6,674 – 6,699 – 6,742
COIN wave 5 Underway!NASDAQ:COIN wave 4 appears complete at the expected Fibonacci retracement 38.2 and High Volume Node support.
A local channel has formed which could be a bear pennant so bulls should watch out. A breakout of this would hit resistance at $360 High Volume Node and the first take profit area from my recent trade. Clearing this Nose will confirm wave 5 is underway to new all time highs $500+
RSI is flipping bullish from oversold and the dail 200EMA continues to rise.
Safe trading
VIX Index – Elliott Wave Analysis: Diagonal C CompletionThe VIX index is finalizing an A-B-C corrective structure, with the C-leg forming as a diagonal. Price action suggests this structure is close to completion. Once the diagonal ends, the probability of a sharp upside move in volatility becomes highly likely.
Why does this matter?
A rising VIX reflects fear and risk aversion in the market.
Historically, VIX moves inversely with equities – higher volatility often coincides with S&P 500 weakness.
When VIX breaks out, it signals hedging demand and uncertainty, pushing option premiums higher and increasing market stress.
📌 Trading view: A confirmed breakout from the diagonal would mark the start of a new impulsive leg higher in volatility. This could align with risk-off flows in equities and broader corrections across risk assets.
Patience and confirmation remain key — once VIX turns, it usually accelerates quickly, not quietly.
Bear trap....SPX to fall soonToday was somewhat decent, but let's not get too giddy! There's looming Gov shutdown on Wed and a few sizable calls on the VIX on the tape. We can see technicals showing a decline, at least in the short term, and I guess we'll see what happens post-Wed. One thing is for sure is that we are overdue a nice healthy pullback. Would not bet the farm on AI esp. with astronomical CAPEX, and highest concentration ever in the market. Best of luck!
S&P500: More Upside Likely Before PullbackThe North American Mass Index kicked off the new week with some momentum, extending its climb within the ongoing magenta wave (3). For now, we anticipate this upward trend could continue before reaching a new high. Afterward, we expect a pullback as part of the subsequent wave (4), likely bringing the index into the magenta long Target Zone between 6,283 and 5,781 points. In our view, this price range offers attractive opportunities for long positions, as wave (5) is expected to follow—potentially pushing the index significantly higher and completing the larger blue wave (III). To protect newly established long positions, a stop can be set 1% below the lower boundary of the Target Zone.
SPX - That's all folks?The world has gone nuts, but markets didn't even blink.
Now the SPX has reached it's U-MLH, which means, it's at a real extreme.
This is a level where price starts to stall, then turn.
Often we see "a last attempt" to break through, and it really could happen. But then, gravity again takes it's toll and the rocket starts to turn south.
Here are the scenarios I see:
1. Immediate turn at the U-MLH. Target is the Centerline.
2. A break of the U-MLH, then back into the fork and a fall down to the Centerline.
3. Break the U-MLH, continuation to the WL1.
The most unlikely would be 3.
In my view, Party People should have left allready, but they refused to.
And that's why this time headaches will be the least problem they face.
Wating for a short signal, to load up heavy.
The S&P 500 Index Remains Positive Against the OddsThe S&P 500 Index Remains Positive Against the Odds
Today, the S&P 500 Index is trading close to a new all-time high, having opened Monday above 6,675 points. This reflects continued optimism among market participants despite factors such as:
→ The risk of a U.S. government shutdown on 1 October.
Today, President Trump will meet with Democratic and Republican leaders in Congress to try to prevent a halt to government funding. However, Reuters reports that chances of reaching an agreement are slim. At the same time, Bank of America analysts remain calm, noting that a shutdown would shave only around 0.1% off GDP per week, and historically such closures have had little impact on financial markets.
→ Jerome Powell’s hawkish stance at the September Federal Reserve meeting.
Nevertheless, most market participants expect the Fed to make another move towards cutting rates at its next meeting on 29 October. The publication of the PCE index on Friday increased this likelihood, as the figures came in line with forecasts, reducing the risk of a renewed inflation surge.
Technical Analysis of the E-mini S&P 500 Chart
On 17 September, analysing the 4-hour chart of the S&P 500 Index, we noted:
→ the price continues to fluctuate within an ascending channel, highlighted in blue;
→ the long body of the bullish candle on 11 September points to strong buyer pressure, indicating an imbalance, or, in Smart Money Concept terminology, a Fair Value Gap (FVG).
At present, the channel remains relevant, but it has expanded — bullish sentiment has shifted the key line (marked in orange) from resistance to support. At the same time, the FVG zone has confirmed its role as support.
Possible developments: the chart indicates a buyer advantage:
→ strong demand near the channel’s median (evident in the long lower shadows from Friday, marked with an arrow);
→ buying activity has been strong enough to push the price back (for now) within the ascending channel.
If buyer dominance continues, this could lead to a new all-time high, testing the upper boundary of the channel. From a bearish perspective:
→ the psychological level of 6,700 could act as resistance;
→ continued growth at Monday’s open could push the RSI indicator into overbought territory, creating potential for a correction.
However, as long as the S&P 500 Index remains above the orange support line, there is reason to believe that the bulls remain in control.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
ES Futures (SPX, SPY) Weekly Analyses, Levels: Sep 29 - Oct 3 Weekly Outlook
The trend remains bullish on both the weekly and daily charts, with price action re-accumulating beneath a well-defined supply zone around 6750–6760. Friday’s rebound from the low 6600s has established a higher-low structure on the 4-hour and 1-hour timeframes, closing above the mid-range of 6612–6630, which shifts near-term momentum back in favor of the buyers.
As we enter a catalyst-heavy week, the path of least resistance suggests a measured push through last week’s “weak high” zone (6750–6760). A decisive move above this supply shelf could target the psychological 6800 mark first, with potential for further upside towards 6865–6885, assuming momentum and market breadth are supportive.
Conversely, if we fail to establish acceptance above 6755, the market could revert to a 6700–6760 range, with downside risks extending to 6620 in response to any hot economic data or risk-off sentiment in the headlines.
Key catalysts this week (ET)
Mon–Thu: Fed speakers scattered; watch for rate-path color and balance-sheet remarks.
Tue 10:00: JOLTS (Aug).
Wed 8:15: ADP employment (Sep). Wed 10:00: ISM Manufacturing (Sep).
Fri 8:30: Non-Farm Payrolls & Unemployment (Sep). Fri 10:00: ISM Services (Sep).
Note: Any fiscal headlines or shutdown noise can skew liquidity and tape reactions around these prints.
Tomorrow — NY AM plan (Level-KZ Protocol 15/5/1)
ES Long (A++) — 6750–6760 Acceptance Continuation
Bias: Bullish if we get acceptance above the 6750–6760 shelf.
Trigger: 15m full-body close above 6755. Then 5m pullback holds ≥6750 and re-closes up; enter on the first 1m HL.
Entry: 6752–6756 pullback fill (avoid chasing a wick).
Stop: Hard SL below the 15m break-candle low −0.50. Viability gate: TP1 ≥ 2.0R.
Targets: TP1 6798–6805; TP2 6865–6885; TP3 6900–6915.
Management: No partials before TP1. At TP1 close 70%, move runner to BE. Trail only after TP2 or if a 5m lower-high forms against you. Time-stop 45–60m if neither TP1 nor SL hits. Max 2 attempts at this level for the session.
Invalidation: 15m body back inside ≤6748 or a failed 5m re-close (acceptance lost).
ES Short (A+) — 6750–6760 Rejection Fade
Bias: Mean-revert to base if the shelf is swept and rejected.
Trigger: Sweep 6750–6760 and 15m closes back below 6748. Then 5m re-close down with a LH; enter on the first 1m LH.
Entry: 6744–6748.
Stop: Above the rejection wick +0.50 or ≥6762, whichever is tighter.
Targets: TP1 6705; TP2 6680; TP3 6620.
Management: Take 70% at TP1, runner to BE; consider covering more ahead of 6680 into data windows. Time-stop 45–60m. Max 2 attempts.
Invalidation: 15m acceptance back above 6755 or a 5m close making new session highs.
Price Projection for the Week
Base Scenario: If we see early-week acceptance above 6755, look for targets at 6800, paving the way for a gradual move towards 6865–6885 by Friday. A soft-landing scenario, characterized by cooler labor growth and steady ISM data, could push prices even to the 6900–6915 range.
Alternative Scenario: Should we experience a rejection in the 6750–6760 range, expect the ES to remain range-bound between 6700–6760. Hot labor market data or strong ISM figures could drive the price back to 6620, where it’s crucial for buyers to defend this level to maintain the uptrend.
Execution Notes:
- Focus on trade opportunities only within key kill-zones: primary session is NY AM from 09:30–11:00; optional trading during Asia/London sessions should be done at reduced sizes.
- Adhere to daily barriers: halt trading at -2R or after achieving +3R net.
- On first touch, prioritize R0/S1 as significant; consider de-risking during second or third interactions.
But Ser, Wen Moon? Wen Alt Season?But Ser, Wen Moon? Wen Alt Season?
Why 2024 Was Your Alt Season (And Why the Next One Is Years Away)
The Uncomfortable Truth: Alt Season Already Happened
Everyone’s still asking “wen alt season?” The painful reality: it already came and went in 2024.
The Altcoin Season Index hit 88 in Dec 2024 - its highest since 2021 - before collapsing to 12 by April 2025 - that was your alt season. The memecoin mania, the AI‑narrative pumps, the handful of legitimate winners like CRYPTOCAP:HBAR , CRYPTOCAP:SOL (at the time of writing still up 10x from 2023 lows), CRYPTOCAP:SUI , COINBASE:SEIUSD , CRYPTO:INJUSD , CRYPTO:RENDERUSD and a few others - that was it.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3ES It peaked symbolically when the President of the United States launched his own memecoin $BINANCE:TRUMPUSDT.
Pause and think about that for a minute: when the most powerful person on earth is shilling crypto memes, you’re not early anymore - you’re late.
Most people missed it because they were waiting for a 2017‑style blow‑off where everything pumped indiscriminately. Instead, 2024 was surgical: only the strongest assets with real utility or meme community power survived. The rest 95-99% of the market - stayed the same laughable junk it’s always been. This wasn’t broad‑based euphoria; it was natural selection.
Why Traditional Finance Beat Crypto This Cycle
Here’s the overlooked truth: the AI rally happened at the same time as Bitcoin’s halving rally.
Faced with a choice between dead altcoins hoping for a 2021 revival or BIVA:NVDA and BMV:MSFT printing real revenue, smart money chose AI and equities over dead altcoins. Retail followed. The AI trade sucked the oxygen out of crypto, leaving most alts gasping for liquidity.
NASDAQ:NVDA added $2.2 trillion in market cap in 2024.
NASDAQ:APP surged +758%.
NASDAQ:PLTR and NASDAQ:MSFT rode AI adoption to record highs.
INDEX:ETHUSD path tells the story: it clawed back to its 2021 highs - just enough for whales to exit three years of underwater bags. Mission accomplished. Retail still waiting for $10K ETH? Game over.
In September alone, COINBASE:ETHUSD saw it largest ETF NASDAQ:ETHA outflow and this money didn't go to alts it was out of the market - Institutions don’t rotate into alts - they rotate out of crypto entirely...
The Institutional Playbook vs. Retail Delusion
The 2024–25 rally was institutional, not retail.
BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust NASDAQ:IBIT has seen $60B+ inflows since Jan 2024, holding ~756,000 BTC.
Fidelity’s CBOE:FBTC holds ~$22B.
Together, they dominate >70% of U.S. ETF flows.
When Blackrock NYSE:BLK and Fidelity CFI:FBTC buy billions in Bitcoin ETFs, they’re not chasing 100x moonshots. They’re happy with 2–3x on massive positions. In institutional terms, a 5x is a career‑making home run.
This isn’t 2017 or 2013 anymore. Crypto is a multi‑trillion dollar ecosystem where retail’s few thousand dollars are statistical noise. The old playbook - “Bitcoin pumps, then alts follow” - is dead - it assumed retail drove the cycle. Today, institutions hold the keys, and like i said they don’t rotate into your favorite altcoin. They rotate into other asset classes entirely.
The Timing Mismatch: Why Q4 Narratives Are Dead Wrong
Veterans keep calling for a Q4 2025 blow‑off top, stuck on the 2013/2017 template. But this cycle is different:
The 4th halving was April 19, 2024 - not May.
IG:BITCOIN typical 1.5‑year post‑halving peak landed in Q3 2025 (~$124K), not Q4.
The cycle is already complete.
Altcoins only thrive when IG:BITCOIN highs are fueled by retail FOMO and leverage. This cycle was powered by measured institutional accumulation. Without retail mania, alts had no fuel. The few that did pump ( CRYPTOCAP:HBAR , CRYPTOCAP:SUI , CRYPTOCAP:SOL , BINANCE:RENDERUSDT ) had real narratives or tech advantages. In a mature market, only quality survives.
The Next Real Alt Season: Q4 2026 and Beyond
Here’s the contrarian call: the next true alt season won’t arrive until Q4 2026 at the earliest.
Why? Because it will take a global financial crisis bottom, central banks printing like mad, and risk appetite returning before crypto regains its role as the speculative playground. That’s when we’ll see a decade‑long melt‑up that makes 2017 look quaint.
By then, 95% of today’s projects will be gone. Regulation will be clearer. Infrastructure will be mature. The survivors of this purge will form the foundation of the next supercycle. But first, the forest fire has to clear the dead wood.
What This Means for Your Bags
If you’re still holding 2021 altcoins waiting for a miracle, you’re fighting the last war. Smart money has rotated out. Retail is exhausted. Institutions aren’t coming to save your bags.
Most alts will bleed slowly into irrelevance - not with dramatic crashes, but with grinding decline as liquidity and attention flow elsewhere. The few survivors will be those with genuine utility, strong teams, and institutional interest. Everything else is destined for zero.
The New Playbook: Cash Is King
For the next 12–18 months, the winning strategy isn’t catching falling knives. It’s preservation of capital and patience. Hold cash. Maybe some Bitcoin as a hedge. Wait for the real bottom - when fear replaces hope and quality trades at fire‑sale prices.
The casino days are over. The market has grown up. And grown‑up markets don’t hand out infinite money glitches to anyone with an internet connection. The future belongs to those who adapt to the new rules - not those who keep playing by the old ones.
Bottom line: Alt season already happened in 2024. The next one won’t come until 2026+. Plan accordingly.
