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Spx500forecast

S&P 500 Bulls Back in Control – New All-Time High Ahead?As I expected in my previous idea , the S&P 500 index( SP:SPX ) pulled back from its Resistance lines and hit its target. Right now, the S&P 500 index is in the process of breaking through a Resistance zone($6,894_$6,859). Just a few hours ago, it successfully broke above the upper line of a descending channel , which is a positive sign for a renewed upward move . From an Elliott Wave perspective, it seems that the S&P 500 index has completed its main wave four, and after breaking this Resistance zone($6,894_$6,859) , we can anticipate the start of a main wave 5 . I expect that once the S&P 500 index breaks through this Resistance zone($6,894_$6,859) , it will likely climb at least up to the next Resistance lines and the Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ) . Note: The cryptocurrency market, and especially Bitcoin( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ), has been highly correlated with the S&P 500 index these weeks. Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree. S&P 500 Index Analyze (SPX500USD), 1-hour time frame. Be sure to follow the updated ideas. Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by pejman_zwin
5
S&P 500 Index Showing Weakness – Correction Ahead?Over the past seven days, the S&P 500 index( SP:SPX ) has been on a bullish run, frequently hitting new all-time highs. However, in the last two or three weeks, it's been influenced by the ongoing tariff tensions between the U.S. and China . Let's look at the latest news about the S&P 500 index : The IMF has flagged that market valuations might be a bit high, hinting at possible corrections. Plus, there's been a fresh look at how well China’s sticking to the 2020 trade deal, and on top of that, a new trade agreement in Southeast Asia is in the mix. So that’s the quick rundown! Right now, if we look at the S&P 500 on a 1-hour timeframe, the index is near its Resistance lines and has lost its uptrend line , which is a sign of weakening momentum . We also saw a Shooting Star Candlestick pattern form in the last few hours with good volume, adding credibility to the potential for a pullback . From an Elliott Wave standpoint, it seems the S&P 500 has completed its wave 3, and we might see a wave 4 correction in the coming hours or days. There's a noticeable Negative Regular Divergence(RD-) between the recent tops , and even on the daily timeframe, there's a divergence signaling potential weakness. I expect the S&P 500 could drop at least to its Support line , around the $6,857 . Note: The cryptocurrency market, and especially Bitcoin , has been highly correlated with the S&P 500 index these weeks, and a possible correction in this index could lead to a correction in this market. Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree. S&P 500 Index Analyze (SPX500USD), 1-hour time frame. Be sure to follow the updated ideas. Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like'✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by pejman_zwin
18
SPX500 Eyes 7000 — Breakout or Bull Trap Ahead?🦸‍♂️ SPX 500 Heist: The 7K Bull Run Playbook (Swing Trade Setup) ✅ Alright, crew, listen up! The market is a vault, and we're here to make a strategic withdrawal. The SPX 500 is showing us the blueprints for a potential bullish breakout. This is our plan to ride the wave. 🎯 The Master Plan: BULLISH We're looking for a classic breakout play. The gates are at 6780, and once they're open, we're going in. ⚡ Entry Signal (The "Go" Signal) Action: Consider long positions ONLY AFTER a confirmed daily breakout and close above the key level of 🎯 6780.00. Translation: Don't jump the gun. Wait for the market to show its hand. 🚨 Stop Loss (The "Escape Route") Location: My suggested escape hatch is down at 🛡️ 6600.00. Place it after the breakout we talked about. A Note from the OG: "Dear Ladies & Gentleman (Thief OG's), I am not recommending you set only my SL. It's your own choice. You can make money, then take money at your own risk." 😉 💰 Profit Target (The "Loot Bag") Destination: We're aiming for the major resistance zone at 🎯 7000.00. This is a psychological magnet and a previous area where sellers stepped in. Why Here? It's a zone of strong resistance, potential overbought conditions, and traps for the greedy. Be smart and escape with your profits! Another OG Note: "Dear Ladies & Gentleman (Thief OG's), I am not recommending you set only my TP. It's your own choice. You can make money, then take money at your own risk." 😎 🔍 Market Intel: Pairs to Watch A master thief always checks the surrounding area. Keep an eye on these correlated assets: AMEX:SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF): The direct tracker. Moves almost tick-for-tick with the SPX. NASDAQ:NDX (Nasdaq 100): Tech-heavy cousin. If NDX is strong, it often pulls SPX up with it. TVC:DXY (U.S. Dollar Index): Our usual antagonist. A stronger dollar can be a headwind for large-cap stocks. CME_MINI:ES1! (S&P 500 E-mini Futures): The real-time action. This is where the big moves often happen first. ✨ Community Boost If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated — it helps me share more setups with the community! #SPX500 #SP500 #SwingTrading #MarketPlaybook #PriceAction #ThiefTrader #IndexAnalysis #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingStrategy #US500 #Equities #BreakoutStrategy #TradingView #StockMarket #RiskManagement
TVC:SPXLong
by The-Thief
S&P500 - $8.000 is the ultimate target!🎊S&P500 ( TVC:SPX ) continues the bullrun: 🔎Analysis summary: Over the course of the past couple of months, the S&P500 has been rallying +40%. However, this does not mean that the bullrun is over any time soon. Since the S&P500 perfectly respects the rising channel pattern, a move to the upper trendline is the target. 📝Levels to watch: $8,000 SwingTraderPhil SwingTrading.Simplified. | Investing.Simplified. | #LONGTERMVISION
TVC:SPXLong
by SwingTraderPhilTV
12
S&P 500 Index Near Key Resistance – Correction Ahead?Recently, the S&P 500 ( SP:SPX ) has seen some sharp moves with high momentum due to the tariff tensions between the US and China over the past couple of weeks. These moves have also impacted other correlated markets like cryptocurrency . In the past day, news came out that Trump is planning to meet the Chinese president on October 31st . With markets opening, the S&P 500 started to rise and is currently moving near a Resistance zone($6,734_$6,690) and close to its Resistance lines . From an Elliott Wave perspective, it seems that the S&P 500 is completing a microwave 5 of the main wave C , and the corrective structure looks like an Regular Flat(ABC/3-3-5) . I expect that in the coming hours, the S&P 500 index could drop at least to around $6,641(First Target) . Second Target: $6,611 Stop Loss(SL): $6,735 Note: The $6,641 level is quite important in the context of the recent rally and could act as both support and resistance for the S&P 500. A possible decline or fall in the S&P 500 index could also cause Bitcoin to decline (due to Bitcoin's high correlation with the S&P 500 index in recent weeks). Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree. S&P 500 Index Analyze (SPX500USD), 1-hour time frame. Be sure to follow the updated ideas. Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by pejman_zwin
1
SPX500 Trading Strategy Explained: From Entry to Exit⚡ SPX500 “STANDARD & POOR” Indices Market Wealth Strategy Map ⚡ (Swing / Day Trade Plan – Thief OG Style) 🧭 Plan 📈 Bias: Bullish confirmed with 30m LSMA pullback + 0.786 Fibonacci-based MA confluence. 💡 Entry Approach (Thief Layering Strategy™): Instead of one-shot entry, I place multiple buy-limit layers to average into strength. Example setup: Buy limit: 6600 Buy limit: 6620 Buy limit: 6640 👉 You can extend or adjust the layering based on your own strategy. 🎯 Stop Loss (SL) This is my Thief SL @6560. ⚠️ Note to Ladies & Gentlemen (Thief OG’s): This SL is not a recommendation. Use your own judgment — protect your loot at your own risk. 💰 Target (TP) 📌 6750 — sitting at strong resistance + overbought zone + possible bull-trap. ⚠️ Again, OG’s — this is not financial advice. Take profit when it fits your plan. Secure the bag, then enjoy the loot! 🔍 Related Pairs to Watch Keep an eye on these correlated assets to confirm the SPX500’s move: NASDAQ:NDX (Nasdaq 100): Tech-heavy index with strong correlation to SPX500. If tech stocks are pumping, it’s a bullish signal for our trade. 📊 TVC:DXY (US Dollar Index): A weaker dollar often boosts equities. Watch for inverse correlation—DXY dropping could mean SPX500 is ready to fly! 🚀 TVC:VIX (Volatility Index): Low VIX levels signal market calm, supporting our bullish setup. A spike in VIX could warn of trouble, so stay sharp! ⚡ Key Correlation Insight: SPX500 often moves in tandem with NASDAQ:NDX due to shared tech giants (think Apple, Microsoft). If NASDAQ:NDX is rallying, it’s a tailwind for our trade. Conversely, a rising TVC:DXY or TVC:VIX could signal caution. 📝 Thief Note Dear Ladies & Gentlemen (Thief OG’s): This map is my personal swing/day trade playbook — not a fixed recommendation. Layer entries, cut losers fast, and loot when you can. Market moves are wild; manage risk like a true OG. ✨ “If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated — it helps me share more setups with the community!” ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is a Thief-style trading strategy shared just for fun & educational vibes. Not financial advice. DYOR & trade responsibly.
TVC:SPXLong
by The-Thief
S&P500: Rebound Offers Relief, But Downtrend Likely to ContinueThe S&P 500 managed to recover somewhat, which helped to partially offset the recent sell-offs. However, we continue to expect the ongoing wave (4) in magenta to extend further to the downside. We anticipate that the low of this wave will be reached within the similarly colored long Target Zone (6,055 points – 5,822 points), before a new upward move begins that should push the index above resistance at 6,812 points. At that level, the magenta five-wave sequence should be completed, and the high of the higher-level wave (III) in blue should be established. Given recent price action, we have added a bearish alternative scenario to the chart. This scenario suggests that the most recent high has already marked the end of the large wave alt.(III) in blue, and that the index has since entered the corrective wave alt.(IV) . If support at 5,528 points is breached, this scenario will be triggered. Long positions within the magenta Target Zone could therefore be protected with a stop set 1% below the lower edge of the zone to limit risk.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by MarketIntel
$SPX500 Swing Trade: Bullish SMA Setup!📈 S&P 500 CFD: Thief’s Bullish Pullback Plan 🤑💰 🚨 Swing/Day Trade Setup: S&P 500 Index CFDSteal profits with this 200 SMA Pullback Plan using the "Thief" layered entry strategy! 📊💸 Below is a detailed breakdown combining technicals, fundamentals, and market sentiment to help you navigate this bullish opportunity. Let’s dive in! 🐂 🎯 Trading Plan Overview Asset: S&P 500 Index CFD ( FOREXCOM:SPX500 ) Bias: Bullish 🐂 Strategy: Pullback to 200 SMA with layered "Thief" limit orders for entries Why This Plan? Technicals: The S&P 500 is riding record highs with strong momentum, supported by the 200 SMA as a dynamic support level. Fundamentals: Cooling inflation (PPI -0.1% vs. +0.3% expected), 100% Fed rate cut probability, and robust corporate earnings (+10% in 2025, +13% in 2026) fuel bullish sentiment. Sentiment: Neutral Fear & Greed Index (51/100) with low volatility (VIX ~15.04) and AI-driven institutional flows (e.g., Oracle +30%). 📊 Thief’s Technical Setup Entry Strategy: Use the Thief Layered Entry approach with multiple buy limit orders to catch pullbacks: 🔔 Buy Limit 1: $6,460 🔔 Buy Limit 2: $6,480 🔔 Buy Limit 3: $6,500 🔔 Buy Limit 4: $6,520 💡 Pro Tip: Adjust layer levels based on your risk tolerance and market conditions. You can enter at any price level or add more layers for flexibility! Entry Trigger: Pullback to the 200 SMA for optimal risk-reward. Stop Loss (SL): Suggested "Thief" SL: $6,440 (below key support). ⚠️ Note: Adjust your SL based on your risk management and strategy. Trade at your own risk, dear Traders! Take Profit (TP): Target: $6,700 (near resistance, potential overbought zone, or "police barricade" trap). 🚨 Note: Escape with profits before resistance hits! Set your TP based on your goals—don’t blindly follow mine. Take money at your own risk! 📡 Real-Time Market Data (10 Sept 2025, UTC+1) Daily Change: +37.43 points (+0.57%) YTD Performance: Record highs driven by AI optimism and Fed rate cut expectations. 😰😊 Fear & Greed Index Current Sentiment: Neutral (Score: 51/100) Breakdown: 📈 Market Momentum: Bullish (S&P 500 above 125-day MA). 🌬️ Volatility (VIX): Low (~15.04), signaling calm markets. 🛡️ Safe Haven Demand: Moderate (bonds lagging stocks). 💰 Junk Bond Demand: Slight greed (narrowing yield spreads). ⚖️ Options Activity: Balanced put/call ratio. 🏛️ Macro & Fundamental Analysis Producer Price Index (PPI): August PPI fell -0.1% (vs. +0.3% expected), easing inflation concerns. Fed Rate Cut: 100% probability of a 25-50 bps cut in September 2025. Labor Market: Weaker-than-expected (911K jobs revised down through March 2025). Corporate Earnings: Strong outlook (+10% growth in 2025, +13% in 2026). Key Drivers: 🚀 AI investment surge (e.g., Oracle +30%, Nvidia strength). 🌍 Geopolitical risks (Poland-Russia tensions, Middle East concerns). 📉 Trade policy uncertainties (Trump tariff threats). 🐂🐻 Sentiment Analysis Institutional Outlook: Cautiously optimistic 🏦 Deutsche Bank & Wells Fargo: S&P 500 targets at 7,000+ by 2026. 💡 Focus: AI capex and earnings resilience. Retail Trader Mood: Mixed but leaning bullish 📈 Meme stock activity (e.g., GameStop +10%). ₿ Crypto correlation (Bitcoin at $111.9K, Solana at 7-month highs). ⚡ Why This Plan Stands Out Technical Edge: The 200 SMA pullback is a proven strategy for swing/day traders, offering high-probability entries. Thief Strategy: Layered limit orders maximize flexibility and reduce risk of missing the move. Macro Support: Cooling inflation, Fed rate cuts, and AI-driven earnings create a bullish backdrop. Sentiment Boost: Neutral sentiment with low volatility supports steady upside potential. Risks to Watch: Geopolitical shocks, overvaluation concerns, and seasonal market weakness. 🔍 Related Pairs to Watch (in USD) Nasdaq 100 CFD ( NASDAQ:NDX ): Tracks tech-heavy AI stocks driving S&P 500 momentum. VIX ( TVC:VIX ): Monitor volatility spikes for potential reversals. US 10-Year Treasury Yield ( TVC:TNX ): Impacts risk sentiment and stock valuations. FX:USDJPY : Correlates with risk-on/risk-off market moves. Bitcoin ( BITSTAMP:BTCUSD ): Tracks retail sentiment and risk appetite. 🚨 Key Takeaways 🏆 S&P 500 at record highs, supported by soft PPI and Fed cut expectations. 😎 Neutral sentiment with a greedy tilt if macro data improves. 🤖 AI trade dominates institutional flows, powering bullish momentum. 📅 Watch upcoming CPI data and Fed meeting for next catalysts. ✨ “If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated — it helps me share more setups with the community!” #SPX500 #SwingTrading #DayTrading #ThiefStrategy #Bullish #TechnicalAnalysis #Macro #AI #FedRateCut #TradingIdeas
SP:SPXLong
by The-Thief
SPX500 Index – Ready for the Next Pullback Heist Move?🚨 SPX500 / US500 Index – The Money Heist Swing Plan 🎭💰 📊 Plan Overview Bias: Bullish 200-SMA Pullback Plan @ 6380.00 Entry Strategy (Layering Style): Thief strategy = multiple buy limit orders stacked like layers 🎯 6400.00 ✅ 6410.00 ✅ 6420.00 ✅ 6440.00 ✅ (You can increase or adjust the layering based on your own style and risk tolerance.) 🛡️ Stop Loss (Thief SL) SL: 6360.00 ⚠️ Dear Ladies & Gentlemen (Thief OG’s), adjust your SL to fit your risk style. This is just the plan’s guardrail. 🎯 Target / Exit Target Zone: 6580.00 🚀 Note: This is the “Police Resistance” 🛑 – an overbought + trap zone. Escape with the stolen money 🎭💰 before getting caught. Reminder: Not financial advice. You decide where to take profits. 🤔 Why This Plan? 🔹 200 SMA Pullback Logic: Price retraced into moving average = classic thief-style entry. 🔹 Layering Strategy Advantage: Building positions gradually improves average entry price & reduces risk. 🔹 Momentum & Sentiment: Neutral Fear & Greed Index (53/100) 😐 and low volatility (VIX 16.9) = stable environment for pullback entries. 🔹 Market Strength: US500 is up +16.81% YTD 🚀 with strong sector support (Alphabet +8.57%, Macy’s +19%). 🔹 Risk Factor: Economic data shows weakness (job openings & factory orders ↓), but bulls remain in control = reason for cautious layering. 🔹 Overall Outlook: Bullish score 65/100 ✅ → Mildly bullish bias fits perfectly with a buy-the-dip pullback strategy. 🔹 Trap Zone Awareness: Plan exits near resistance at 6580.00 to avoid overbought trap — thieves always escape before alarms go off 🚨. 📊 US500 INDEX CFD Real-Time Data (September 03) Daily Change: +0.51% ↗️ Monthly Performance: +1.87% ↗️ Yearly Performance: +16.81% 🚀 All-Time High: 6,510.93 (August 2025) 😰😊 Investor Sentiment: Fear & Greed Index Current Reading: 53/100 (Neutral) 😐 Trend: Balanced sentiment with no extreme fear or greed. Key Indicators: Market Momentum: S&P 500 above 125-day moving average (positive momentum) ↗️ Volatility (VIX): Low volatility (16.90), indicating stability 🟢 Options Activity: Put/Call ratio stable (no significant fear) Junk Bond Demand: Moderate risk appetite Safe Haven Demand: Bonds underperforming stocks (greed signal) 📈 Fundamental & Macro Score Market Breadth: Moderate (balanced volume) ⚖️ Economic Data: Job openings lowest since Sept (weakness) 🔻 Factory orders down -1.3% 🔻 Friday’s jobs report = critical ⚠️ Sector Performance: Communication services (Alphabet +8.57%) 🟢 Consumer discretionary (Macy’s +19%) 🟢 Energy sector weak (Exxon Mobil -2.08%) 🔻 🐂🐻 Overall Market Outlook Bullish Score: 65/100 (Mildly Bullish) ✅ Reasons: Strong yearly gains (+16.81%) Low volatility & neutral sentiment support stability Tech & communication sectors leading momentum Risks: Weakening job & factory data High valuations near ATH 💡 Key Takeaways US500 trending upward with neutral short-term sentiment. Friday’s jobs report = key catalyst. Sector rotation in play: tech strong, energy weak. Balanced fear/greed supports controlled bullish setups. 📌 Related Pairs to Watch FOREXCOM:SPX500 CAPITALCOM:US500 TVC:DJI NASDAQ:NDX TVC:VIX (for risk gauge) ✨ “If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated — it helps me share more setups with the community!” #SPX500 #US500 #IndexTrading #SwingTrade #LayeredEntry #SMAPullback #TradingPlan #StockMarket #SP500 #InvestorSentiment #FearGreed
TRADU:SPX500Long
by The-Thief
The Great Convergence: End of the Everything BubbleThe Great Convergence: Why Q4 2025 May Mark the End of the Everything Bubble A Multi-Asset Analysis of Bitcoin, S&P 500, and Gold at Critical Junctures Hello Traders, After analyzing 25 years of market data across three major financial crises, I've identified a dangerous convergence of signals suggesting we're approaching a significant market inflection point. The simultaneous peaks in IG:BITCOIN (~$124K), SP:SPX (6,700), and TVC:GOLD ($3,790) combined with deteriorating macroeconomic indicators mirror patterns that preceded both the 2000 and 2008 crises. Key Thesis: We are potentially entering a liquidity crisis that could result in a 30-50% correction across risk assets by Q4 2026. Part I: The Bitcoin Halving Cycle - End of the Fourth Epoch Historical Pattern Recognition CRYPTO:BTCUSD price action has followed a remarkably consistent 4-year cycle tied to its halving events: 2012 Halving → 2013 Peak (1 year delay): +8,000% rise, -85% crash 2016 Halving → 2017 Peak (1.5 years delay): +2,800% rise, -84% crash 2020 Halving → 2021 Peak (1.5 years delay): +700% rise, -77% crash 2024 Halving → 2025 Peak (1.5 years delay): +450% rise, -75% crash projected Current Technical Indicators RSI Divergence: Weekly RSI showing lower highs while price makes higher highs - classic exhaustion signal present at 2013, 2021 previous cycle tops. Volume Profile: Declining volume on recent rallies indicates weakening conviction On-chain Metrics: Long-term holder distribution accelerating, similar to previous cycle tops Price Targets Current Level: $109,498 Proposed Peak: $124,000 (By halving cycle theory this was fulfilled last month August) Initial Support: $69,000 (previous cycle ATH) Crisis Target: $25,000-30,000 (75% drawdown from peak by Q6 2026) Part II: The Macro Crisis Trigger - SPX SP:SPX / Unemployment Rate ECONOMICS:USUR / Fed Rate Correlation ECONOMICS:USINTR The Historical Precedent Every major crisis follows a predictable sequence: 2000 Dot-Com Bubble: CBOE:SPX at ATH (1,550) ✓ Unemployment begins rising from 3.9% ✓ Fed initiates rate cuts ✓ → 49% crash over 2.5 years 2008 Financial Crisis: TVC:SPX at ATH (1,576) ✓ Unemployment rises from 4.4% ✓ Fed cuts rates aggressively ✓ → 57% crash over 1.5 years 2025 AI/Everything Bubble: TVC:SPX at ATH (6,700) ✓ Unemployment rising from 3.4% ✓ Fed just initiated cuts (Sept 2025) ✓ → Projected 35-45% correction over 1.5 years The Unemployment-Rate Cut Death Cross Since 1970, whenever the Fed has cut rates while unemployment is rising from cycle lows: 12/12 times resulted in recession within 12 months Average equity drawdown: 35% Average duration: 18 months Current Labor Market Dynamics - The AI Disruption Factor Unlike previous cycles, we face structural unemployment pressure from AI adoption: Customer service: 2M jobs at risk Software development: 500K jobs transitioning Logistics/Transport: 3M jobs being automated Administrative: 4M jobs under pressure This isn't temporary cyclical unemployment - it's structural displacement requiring economic reorganization. Part III: Gold's Crisis Pattern - The Liquidation Before the Flight Historical TVC:GOLD Behavior in Crisis Contrary to popular belief, FX:XAUUSD can and does suffer fast flushes during systemic liquidity panics despite its long-term hedge role; with gold near ATH, combined liquidity and profit-taking risk could produce a 15–25% correction ahead of any later safe-haven rally: 2000 Crisis: Pre-crisis peak: $326 Initial drop: -21% Bottom-to-recovery: +650% over 11 years 2008 Crisis: Pre-crisis peak: $1,033 Initial drop: -34% Bottom-to-recovery: +180% over 3 years Covid-19 Pandemic: Pre-pandemic peak: $1,696 Initial drop: -15% Bottom-to-recovery: +43% over 2 years and 160% over 5 years Some will point to 2020, when gold rallied during the COVID crash. But that was a unique exogenous shock: the selloff lasted only weeks before unprecedented stimulus and collapsing real yields drove gold to new highs. In contrast, financial‑system crises like 2000 and 2008 forced gold into a year‑long correction before its hedge role reasserted. The 2025 setup looks far closer to those financial crises than to 2020’s pandemic shock. 2025 Projection: Current peak: $3,790 Expected initial drop: -20 to -25% Target bottom: $3,000-$2,800 Long-term recovery target: $6,500+ by 2030 Why Gold Falls Initially During liquidity crises, investors sell everything to meet margin calls and raise cash - even safe havens. Only after the acute phase does gold fulfill its hedge role. Part IV: The Convergence - Why This Time Is Particularly Dangerous Unique Risk Factors in 2025 1. Unprecedented Valuations Across All Assets Total global asset values: $450 trillion (4.5x global GDP) Buffett Indicator: 195% (highest ever) Shiller CAPE: 38 (higher than 1929) 2. Leverage and Derivatives Total derivatives notional: $700 trillion Margin debt: $935 billion (record high) Corporate debt/GDP: 85% (record high) 3. Geopolitical Tensions Active conflicts affecting supply chains De-dollarization accelerating Energy market fragmentation 4. Cryptocurrency Systemic Risk $2.5 trillion COINBASE:BTCUSD and over $4T gross crypto CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL asset class that didn't exist in 2008 Interconnected with traditional finance via ETFs Untested in true liquidity crisis Part V: The Three-Stage Crisis Model Stage 1: The Warning Shot (Now - Q4 2025) Timeline: Next 1-3 months Characteristics: Deteriorating breadth (fewer stocks making highs) Defensive rotation begins TVC:VIX creeping higher First 10% correction dismissed as "healthy" Stage 2: The Liquidity Cascade (Q4 2025 - Q2 2026) Timeline: 6-9 months Characteristics: Multiple failed rallies "Buy the dip" mentality breaks Margin calls cascade All correlations go to 1 Targets: TVC:SPX : 5,000-5,500 CRYPTO:BTCUSD : $50,000-70,000 TVC:GOLD : $2,200-2,400 Stage 3: Capitulation and Reset (Q2 2026 - Q4 2026) Timeline: 6-12 months Characteristics: Forced selling exhaustion Government intervention Market clearing prices reached Final Targets: TVC:SPX : 3,700-4,500 CRYPTO:BTCUSD : $25,000-35,000 TVC:GOLD : Begins new bull market from $2,800 My Risk Management Framework Position Sizing Current Risk Asset Exposure: Reduce to 30% of portfolio Cash: 50% Precious Metals (Physical): 10% Strategic Shorts: 10% (via puts and/or inverse ETFs) Key Indicators to Monitor Weekly Unemployment Claims: ECONOMICS:USUR Sustained moves above 250K Credit Spreads: HYG/TLT ratio breaking below 4.5 Dollar Strength: TVC:DXY above 110 signals global stress IG:BITCOIN Dominance: Below 45% indicates alt-coin capitulation TVC:VIX Term Structure: Inversion signals immediate stress Invalidation Scenarios This bearish thesis would be invalidated if: Unemployment reverses below 4% Fed pivots to QE without crisis Fiscal stimulus exceeds $2 trillion AI productivity gains offset job losses faster than expected Conclusion: Probability-Weighted Scenarios Based on historical precedent and current conditions, I assign the following probabilities: 60% Probability: Significant correction (20-30% drawdown) beginning Q4 2025 25% Probability: Major crisis (40-50% drawdown) rivaling 2008 15% Probability: Continued melt-up through 2026 (Fed intervention success) The risk/reward severely favors defensive positioning. After a 15-year bull market across all assets, the convergence of deteriorating fundamentals, extreme valuations, and historical crisis patterns suggests we're approaching a critical inflection point. Remember: Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. This analysis presents probabilities , not certainties. Always manage risk appropriately and never invest more than you can afford to lose. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consult with financial professionals before making investment decisions. Follow for updates as this thesis develops. Key milestones to watch: October NFP report November FOMC meeting Q4 earnings season Year-end positioning
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by niclaxfx
11
S&P 500 (ES1!): Bullish! Buy The Dip! Keep It Simple!Welcome back to the Weekly Forex Forecast for the week of Sept 22 - 26th. In this video, we will analyze the following FX market: S&P 500 (ES1!) The S&P500 is still bullish, and there is no reason to short it. Wait for price to pullback to a +FVG, and then look for valid buy setups on your entry TFs. Don't jump into sells! They are against the trend and lower probability! Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by RT_Money
1