SP500 : Another trendline Reaction? comment Hello traders , today's topic is about SP500.
As you can see technically we are in a very strong trending market to the upside.
previously price tested multiple times the zone.
we can also see a 0.618 level.
50 daily ema.
From the fundamental aspect according to trading view news related : to continue bullish:
* August CPI comes in cooler than expected
* Apple heaviest drag on S&P after product launch event
* Drop in Treasury yields pressures financials
* Indexes down: Dow 0.84%, S&P 500 0.57%, Nasdaq 0.45%
Wall Street lost ground on Tuesday as economic uncertainties and the increasing likelihood of a corporate tax rate hike dampened investor sentiment and prompted a broad sell-off despite signs of easing inflation.
Optimism faded throughout the session, reversing an initial rally following the Labor Department's consumer price index report. All three major U.S. stock indexes ended in negative territory in a reminder that September is a historically rough month for stocks.
So far this month the S&P 500 is down nearly 1.8% even as the benchmark index has gained over 18% since the beginning of the year.
"There is a possibility that the market is simply ready to go through an overdue correction,"
The advent of the highly contagious Delta COVID variant has driven an increase in bearish sentiment regarding the recovery from the global health crisis, and many now expect a substantial correction in stock markets by the end of the year.
"We're still in a corrective mode that people have been calling for months," said Paul Nolte, portfolio manager at Kingsview Asset Management in Chicago. "Economic data points have been missing estimates, and that has coincided with the rise in the Delta variant."
SPXUSD
S&P broke the 4H MA50. Starting the correction.Pattern: Channel Up on 4H.
Signal: Sell as the price broke below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since August 20. Also the price action and the MACD is similar to the July 15 consolidation which also led to a pull-back below the 4H MA50.
Target: The 1D MA50 (yellow trend-line), which has been the target of all corrections within the 12 month Channel Up.
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S&P500 healthy pull-back for bullish continuationPattern: Channel Up on 4H.
Signal: Buy on the next pull-back to the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line). This buy signal has been consistent since June 01, appearing 3 times.
Target: The 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level.
Most recent S&P signal:
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SPX WARNING Fibonacci Circle top and Wave 5 topHi its been a while,
i've been very busy with The OWL and cryptos. I want to show you this chart cos i think we are approching a market top soon, the consequence of a hit of this 3.618 fib would end in my opinion a Supercycle.. which can bring a depression and a Deflation plase. Also this bearish divergence we created since May 1998 is no doubt.
S&P500 Is it getting ahead of itself?The index has been trading within a Channel Up since the November 2020 elections. The barometer has always been the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) mostly, where the majority of buy accumulation has been taking place. The Ichimoku Cloud is second. What we see now is the price trading very close to the Higher Highs trend-line and although it can break the 4,400 - 4,420 zone and trade just under the Higher Highs trend-line for a long period of time (like Nov 2020 - Jan 2021 and April 2021 - May 2021), it is best to stay focused and use the long-term perspective as a guide. The RSI offers a good viewpoint as well, especially in terms of the consolidation near the Higher Highs, but it also has a clear 1 year Buy Zone and that is within 43.000 - 35.000.
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SPX500USD 2021 July 12 WeekOANDA:SPX500USD
SPX500USD 2021 July 12 Week
Bar 1 confirmed as SOW and move was manifested on 06 Jul. Theme last week was similar
to Nasdaq - trapping longs and shake out
Weekly chart: Net gain from previous bar has diminished, volume has picked up slightly..
Daily chart: No significant weakness observed
H4 chart: Shortening of trust, weakness manifesting
Strategy:
Long on retracement is preferred.
1) If price returns to test bar 2, long when price is supported
2) Last bar shortening of thrust. If price hovers around that zone, we may have short opportunity
3) If you see a sudden spike in price and bar closes on its low, forming an upthrust, don't chase
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Have a successful week ahead in whatever you do
S&P500 March/ April fractal points to above 4450This is something I've also pointed out a month ago but after last week's rebound on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) it got even clearer. S&P seems to be replicating the March/ April fractal where after a break-out above the Resistance Zone (on a 1D MA50 rebound), the price rallied to a level within the 2.5 - 3.0 Fibonacci extension zone. Do you agree that 4450 is a realistic target based on this?
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S&P500 Trading plan ahead of the GDPPattern: Channel Up on 4H.
Signal: Buy on the next 1D MA50 contact as the sequence is similar to the May 13-16 fractal.
Target: 4330 (the Higher Highs trend-line and symmetrical level since late April).
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SPX500USD 2021 June 21 (Intraday)
OANDA:SPX500USD
SPX500USD 2021 June 21 (Intraday)
The past reveals the future. Last week, we opined on possibility of history repeating as price reaches a previous high.
Congrats to those who had not been sucked in as market was marked up and waited for a short.
Price has paused at 50% 4151 of the previous up move.
Scenarios:
1) If price is supported at the 50%, it may test ultra high volume bars 2 or even 1.
2) Price breaks through 50% and target 4078
3) Short opportunity should present itself if price returns to test the high volume bars 2, or even bar 1
4) Price resisted at a previous support turned resistance.
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S&P500 Buy Signal entering the 4H IchimokuPattern: Channel Up on 4H.
Signal: Buy as the price has hit the 4H Ichimoku Cloud with the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) and the 1D MA50 (red dotted line) right below, while the RSI reached the June 03 low.
Target: 4280 (top of the Channel Up) and if the Higher Highs trend-line breaks, then extension to 4340 (2.0 Fibonacci extension).
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I suspect SPX will end up like BTCAnd I just need some indicator confirmation before pulling the trigger on some puts.
I don't want to crow too loudly, but lots of crypto analysts on Tradingview and/or YouTube have been posting temperamental TA when they wake up, see a candle, and feel compelled to post an update to their TA. Whipped around all over the place as BTC zig and zagged. Many did not zoom out and have forgotten how to look for bull traps. And a lot of these guys are good, I have seem then call bull traps before. Some of them even saw the bearishness but hand waved it away because "we are in a bull market" and a couple of them got liquidated due to stops being too loose. And I stood on my BTC short call, like I am standing on the over-all bearishness of the S&P and Nasdaq and everything else for the next while.
BTC on the right had a perfectly predictable bull trap due to wedge support support flipping as resistance and hidden bearish divergence on the histogram, and all the other stuff I went into on my linked ideas
Likewise a bull trap on SPXUSD can be very predictable. I have SPXUSD up because it has more price action than SPX or SPY. There are some dissimilarities based on percent gains and slope of the resistance and somewhat concerning, it doesn't look as "wedge-ie" as BTCUSD due to the whitespace. What is similar:
Rising wedge
broke down
Very similar resistance zone (in blue)
I will be watching for price action to go to the blue resistance zone and the wedge. I expect price action to thrash around there for a while and then dump. The most ideal thing I could see is there to be hidden bearish divergence from the peak that is about to form to the SPX all time high, and then! classic bearish divergence within the peak, such as a second retest of the wedge after a small dip. The media will be near schizophrenic trying to come up with news stories and will be contradicting themselves all over the place. But I am not going to be caught flat footed by some tweet by Elon or some bungling statement from the "President."
sidenote
I see a potential descending triangle on BTCUSD... It isn't the main point of the post but still, it means that BTC can bounce and meander around resistance for a couple of weeks even, alts can resume going crazy, and then the rug gets proper pulled. I did a quick skim of some of the BTCUSD ideas and could not see anyone eyeballing the same potential pattern, so I thought I would throw it out there.
SPX500USD 2021 May 03 Week (Intraday)
OANDA:SPX500USD
SPX500USD 2021 May 03 Week (Intraday)
Weekly, Daily - Bullish, H4 = Bearish
Last week, tradeable days were only 29-30 April as market was mostly horizontal prior to 29 April.
Last 2 bars displayed good reversal volume, let's see if this intermediate support can be an indication
of demand coming in.
Caution though if long, keep stops tight because:
Bar 1 is weak given and 2 bars after it doesn't show demand for higher prices.
Possible scenarios:
1) With the trap up move on 1, market may be keen to test the green zone
2) Market in rotation phase between 4124 - 4220, trades would be executed at the boundary.
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Have a good trading week ahead!
S&P500 may drop -3% to -6%.Pattern: Bullish Megaphone on 4H.
Signal: Sell as the price broke below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and since December 21, 2020, every time the index broke below the 4H MA50 it dropped even lower to (or below) the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line).
Target: Anywhere within a -3% to -6% from the recent High. -3% has more chances as as 3 out of 5 MA50 breaks resulted in a -3% drop.
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2021 is like 73s2021 is like 73s. let's see how this play. if it went well, buy dips at bottom if you can.
1. The four most expensive words in investing are: 'This time it's different. '” So said Sir John Templeton, the legendary investor and mutual fund pioneer. The phrase contains tremendous wisdom, but only if you truly understand what it means. ... “This time it's different” has become a ubiquitous phrase...
2. we will see increasing inflation & Covid case worldwide rising this year. they printed many trillions for check stimulus also fourth stimulus check again? also seems coronavirus won't go anywhere. you can see that Covid cases is still rising on worldometers site. Imagine 1-10 million cases daily? it's not great for economy & stock market. seems vaccine is still processing but not completely at all.
3. some investors will say " dollar is in bubble but stock market won't go down" they say same thing in 73s. that's not how this works. dollar inflation makes stock market volatility & shock..
4. The Buffett Indicator at All-Time Highs Is This Cause for Concern?. it shows 223% radio of market value GDP, 79% higher than long term trend line not internet bubble.
seems too higher.
5. 2021. many poor & middle bought stocks & meme from check stimulus while rich people buying at same time. this doesn't age well. "BUY, BUY, BUY" poor getting rich, rich getting richer? nah.
that's not how this works. 2008 & 2020 was different because market was bottom but 2021 Is top not bottom. that's why. Illuminati stays. in 2030, we will see 0.1% top getting richer ever while poor & middle bottom.
my prediction could be wrong or right.
Thank you. Sorry For My Bad English. Enjoy.






















