Opening QQQ Sep 15 Bear Call Spreadwww.tradingview.com
Although QQQ tends to go its own way at times, it feels like a pause with the broader market. On the Chart The price has broken a long term rally and the same on On Balance Volume w ema. Both price and OBV are spending more time below shorter averages. Note the divergence OBV down when price up and now price looking to follow the volume down. I outlined the pennant on OBV it could be indicative of a change. Guess we will see which way :-).
The bottom indicator is just a histogram of OBV - weighted moving average of OBV. I find it useful to help read possible volume related triggers. The histogram crosses zero when the OBV crosses the wma.
This is neutral short as there is room for the price to go up and still profit.
Position:
short Sep 15 144 Call long sep 15 147 Call. This is a short (sold for net credit) vertical call aka bear call spread.
Theta 1.85 - all else being equal this says the position will gain $1.85 per session through net decay in premium. (Premium drops, I buy it back for less = profit)
max profit loss 113 / 187. Profit target is 50-55 approx 50%. The probability of making 50% is 74% so exiting there increases the win rate, reduces exposure and frees capital for other trades.
