for a debit of 1.20/contract.
At open, Theta 1.8 and Delta -1.65.
Chart 2 weeks per candle.
Bottom panel shows % move adjusted to approx. breakeven prices and the historic occurence % of those moves. Xs (top=up, bottom=down) plot for
each occurence and the red green lines show percentage for the selected number in...
Trying out this strategy for earnings tomorrow, when sets up with good IV spread the crush should profit what is typically considered a bought spread.
Direction is not an issue, only that the break-even points are outside of recent earnings moves. This setup goes as wide as possible without letting the belly of the...
IV rank a little high on this
max risk is the debit until the front month expiration
Underlying price when opened 173.20
Upper and Lower expected move 167.70 176.90
break evens 167 and 180 gives a little more room above
With the break even points being clearly outside of the expected move (per...
Caught my notice as one of many stocks that popped back to begin filling yesterday's gap. The longer term trend is up.
Schaff Trend Cycle (bottom panel indicator - this is a modification of LazyBear's @LazyBear, customized line color for up/down direction and background color for Elder Ray EFI grn/red above below zero...
Actually opened yesterday (Thursday, 1-4-18) for a debit of $2.58.
Expecting an up move with BearBull indicator both positive and generally positive and the Schaff trend cycle crossing above 25 (moving up out of oversold conditions). I like this indicator (Schaff Trend Cycle) as it tunes out most of the noise - the...
The top panel below chart orange showing average change over 1 month +$3.60 which is also ~ the expected move based on Implied volatilty. That puts the SPY into peak profit area of this Broken Wing Butterfly spread. The break-even is another buck and a half (about) higher. Last week was a little down which sometimes...
Been meaning to try one of these . .
Debit 2.46 ($246.00)
IV 10 IVR 12%
Break-Even / Scratch 266.60 and 253.20 (13.40 profit range)
SPY spot 259.97 Will set this to close at 10% -$25/contract (this is one)
- If SPY sits as still as it has today will let it go to more profit Shorts are...
Double Calendar spread actually a tiny bet on little movement of SPY before Friday
Will take the short legs off with any sign of price jumping or within 2 days. A big price jump without the short legs could improve the profit so will be watching this closely and out by Friday.
This time leverage can be powerful, that 14 Theta is...
This is what I call a Ecalendar for pre earnings announcemnet calendar spread to take advantage of the volatility expansion that occurs somewhere from 30-45 days before an earnings binary event. CAT is one of many that pops up (the IV) like a gear tooth in a clear pattern; my goal is to place the trade before the pop and...
It is right around the time that the volatility may expand pre-earnings (E announce in about a month). This trade will benefit if volatility does indeed expand.
Typical historical IV expansion is about 50%, this kind of boost can override a lot of price movement - msft price when it moves tends to run up prior to...
Opened today when spot was ~144.70.
QQQ in Oct 20th monthly expiration options
long the 147 call
short two 148 calls
long the 151 call
Theta .81 Delta 10.81
max profit 136 loss 164. Anything lower than the break-even of about 145.50 will profit between 36 and 136.
No risk to down side.
This trade is looking...
Although QQQ tends to go its own way at times, it feels like a pause with the broader market. On the Chart The price has broken a long term rally and the same on On Balance Volume w ema. Both price and OBV are spending more time below shorter averages. Note the divergence OBV down when price up and now price looking to...
1. After earnings many stocks hit a low notch in IV which looking at IV chart looks very predictable (others look more random as to when)
This calendar will benefit from a volatility expansion and time looks about right and have been meaning to try one of these.
2. Price chart looks like support at around 16...
Often do but have not had a position in IWM lately so here goes. A little movement could favor this trade but it is mostly neutral.
I have drawn a daily trend line and am using 3 indicators - trying out updates to Williams percentR and a new Pivot HighLow and will update/publish
after trading with them a while. While...
EWW top 10 assets (Operating companies in Mexico) have solid analysis. It has been outperforming EEM (Emerging Markets).
I prefer slightly more liquid options (evaluated on a % ask-bid/ premium ATM) but I like this trade and am practising trading Calendars.
The metrics are on the chart. I am basing this idea method...
Recent buzz has been growing that XOP could rally so I have been watching it. Almost pulled the trigger at 2:55 - end of option session local time but did not have my head wrapped around it. I do not mind trading quickly but it is easy to make clostly mistakes (how do I know that?) so I try to have it completely clear...
%R, Hull MACD, EFI (backcolor on macd, darker red negative slope)and Volume Price Change 2, 11, 3 agree sustained negative pressure. This all agrees with support and trend breaks. Will see how it looks at open in the morning, now Aug. 18 Bear vertical buying 117 and selling 114 puts (1 ea. max profit/loss ~ 150/150)...