Trying out this strategy for tomorrow, when sets up with good IV spread the crush should profit what is typically considered a bought spread.
Direction is not an issue, only that the break-even points are outside of recent moves. This setup goes as wide as possible without letting the belly of the profit/loss go below the trade expenses (commission and fees). This one usually moves so should settle in profit and the cost or max loss is minimal when closed before the short, front week expiration. The intention is to close as soon as the vol crush occurs unless movement is taking it more profitable at the moment.
The main analysis involved is checking the last several moves so that all or most of them are within the break evens of the setup. So it is a sort of trend analysis looking at the trends/history of moves.
This stocks options become reasonably liquid at time so the fills in closing should not kill the trade. I have looked at several of these over the past few weeks and seems clear when good or bad trade. Now to place live trades and get the real learning (in the muscles) by doing. If these work out will post more with clearer entrance guidelines. Hard to find a better probability of profit or reward to risk ratio.
Sunday night parameters:
Stock price 52.27
debit of double calendar spread ~0.12 ($12 per contract) depending on fill
break-even points (conservative, actually small profit) ~ 47.50 and 58.50
max loss $12 plus expenses
projected (IV adjusted for post crush) belly of p/l return (zero price movement from ) ~ $4
max profit at the strikes of the legs: $43 at 49 strike and $53 at 56 strike