Everyone is waiting for the dip… May 2026What if it never came?
A few days ago the idea of an approaching resistance “ Expect resistance 86-87k - May 2026 ” was published. It is clear from various quarters this is interpreted as a forecast “crash” event prediction as and when resistance is tested. An event that’ll cover long orders to those that panic sold around $65k now looking to capture a missed opportunity.
Here's the thing, resistances can be broken. Resistances, just like support, can fool the market. The trade or opportunity only makes sense after confirmation. Never guess, never fall victim to the popular narrative. Right now the popular narrative remains, a mega crash is coming.
Let’s be honest, had you bought instead of sold around 65k, you’d not be reading this post. It would be entirely irrelevant. Instead participants now face the worry of a resistance confirmation that might never come. What if price action slices straight through resistance? Continues with higher lows?
Why would it do that?
Very simple. The market is driven by emotion. We all know this resistance is here. Emotional participants emptied their pockets at the lows during the panic. They gladly sold every last Sat to shrewd investors for cheap, my favourite price. Participants now repeat this activity with their alt tokens. Latterly there are folks sitting in cash waiting for an even larger drop to levels like $50k, or even $40k as they’ve been promised. Well, that’s not going to happen.
How do I know this?
Look left. (That includes the influencers!)
On the above 9 day chart you’ll see the 100 day Rolling Moving average. Since Bitcoin began life way back in 2011, you would see new highs print with each confirmation of support on the 100 RMA.
Price action has confirmed support on the 100 RMA @ $65k. That is the only reason I now know that lower lows are very improbable. The herd has missed out, and the FOMO is quietly building, as is the frustration. Perhaps price might double bottom on the RMA, as it has done in the past. Treat that opportunity as a gift horse should it happen.
But a stock market crash is coming!
The “ Sell in May come back another day - The Truth 2026 ” is also receiving much pushback despite an 86% probability the stock market closes higher in the next 6-8 months from now at the same time most continue to call for a crash. The market it seems refuses to oblige.
But Warren Buffet’s cash position is the largest it’s ever been!
The inbox has shown that message once or twice. “He sits on huge cash position waiting for the crash!"
One of the most mis-informed statements flying around influencer circles at the moment is Warren Buffet maintains a large cash position. Two things:
1. Every trader and investor should maintain a cash position larger than their tradable portfolio. It is the core facet to good risk management. It’s how I sleep at night.
2. He’s not all in cash, he’s mostly long treasury Bonds. That’s not cash, that’s cash with a guaranteed rate of return as interest.
In other words, he’s reduced his risk during a period of increased volatility.
But recession!! Recession is coming.
Another popular narrative doing the rounds. For the majority of folks, recession = bear market.
That’s a reasonable assertion with one problem, the facts do not support such a point of view. The truth is much more compelling. Overlay historical recessions during the business cycles of the last 100 years and you’ll learn the stock market does not care. Think about it, the conflicts (Plural?!) America is engaged in is often used as a narrative to explain why an economic downturn is coming, which will crash the market. The evidence is, the stock market does not care. As a matter of fact, recessions are one of the greatest wealth transfers you’ll have in your lifetime. While everyone else panics, you act decisively.
Have said this before elsewhere…. if you wish to participate in this transfer, be invested.
Read “ S&P 500 to 10,000 inside the next 4 years - December 2025 ” for a detailed breakdown why the stock market is going make much higher moves.
Bis später!
Ww
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Disclaimer
This post reflects personal market opinions and interpretations of historical price action. It is not financial advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. Markets are inherently unpredictable and all investments carry risk, including the potential loss of capital. Past performance, historical probabilities, and technical indicators do not guarantee future results.
