Long XOP? Trend break, double bottom, news and indics agree.

Recent buzz has been growing that XOP             could rally so I have been watching it. Almost pulled the trigger at 2:55 - end of option session local time but did not have my head wrapped around it. I do not mind trading quickly but it is easy to make clostly mistakes (how do I know that?) so I try to have it completely clear when commit.
I have published some of the indicators, they all need updating now. Holler in comments with any questions. Thanks and Keep Smiling!
- News: Dollar creeping down, world oil             inventories/production and general buzz draws attention so if a crowd will gather I want to be in and out closed before the excitement dies down. Plan with me is -take $ off of the table and limit risk exposure.

- Down trend is broken and just passed a double bottom plus price picked its way through some historical resistance.

- Williams per cent R 21 period with 13 average has signal above average, above mid range and into so-called overbought. The top line color green tells me the
four period Random Walk part of this indicator is greater than 1 positive.

- The Hull MACD is inconclusive in the macd part while trend break is tested but the back colors tell me the Force Index is above zero ( bullish ) though it just turned light green meaning it went from up slope to down slope - again testing trend and resistance - we will see how this price passes the direction quiz tomorrow :-) .

- Finally got a four time frame Exponential Moving Average pairs ribbon working the way I want. Inputs here default 9 and 15 period exp             . moving averages in each of four time frames (here at default 5, 15, 60 and D). Showing here 5 and 15 pull backs - 60 and day advancing. Be interesting to see if price tags along now! This indicator displays a column of 4 circles; top is shortest time frame; color is green if fast moving average is above the slow else red.
Trade closed manually: Closed this on August 4 (was still learning how this idea format works so now buttoning up). My presumption was wrong and if anything it was moving against me. Have been practising this trade and learning better manaagement (thanks to excellent examples here from user @NaughtyPines). Trade was down 22 including comms and fees at close.
false breakout, back to bear tunnel again, any update?
Tom1trader lantao517
@lantao517, Agree, false breakout, this has gone back into my routine watch lists (I watch about 50 give or take of the highest option volume stocks and ETFs - all with plenty of liquidity in the monthly options and some even in the weeklies). The trade I placed was closed Aug 4 as mentioned in a reply below down about 22 after expenses as I remember - closed because the price movement went too much against my assumption for the strategy that I used.
Tom1trader lantao517
@lantao517, Looking at it again see the volatility is up some (IVR 39% IVP 51%) so might look it over for a neutral play such as selling an iron condor. Will update it here if I do. Am new here, most of my trades not posted but I see some of the traders use this like a journal, keeping trade actions and metrics in the post. I can see how that could be helpful.
Just placed a trade. Sept 15 Calls short 32 long 31. A very small bet credit .36 Delta 11.3 Theta .06. Price now 32.25 break even 31.62. If it stays put or moves up will take it off for 18-20 minus commission and fees of 2.28 total within about 3 weeks.
Tom1trader Tom1trader
@Tom1trader, Should add risk: max 64 if price ends up below 31.62. Will be in it no more than about 3 weeks (46 DTE days to expiration).
lantao517 Tom1trader
@Tom1trader, XOP was so weak and failed to move with strength even with such bullish oil price, and XOP even back to test the breakout line, so disappointing........
Do you have any idea?
Tom1trader lantao517
@lantao517, XLE would have been profitable as I close option trades early and it moved enough to have been a winner. XOP , the one I bet on did not bump up so closed it down about $22 total with comms and fees. The main idea that I have on any trade is the price will do what it will and indicators only follow what it has done. I use the indicators because I enjoy the guessing but do not bank on them - I bank on keeping trades consistent in size and looking more at risk and probability (option implied volatility) than at price action per se. Thanks for the comment and keep smiling!
I am also confuse about it, XLE did breakout key down trend resistance and also 50 DMA, however the strength of XLE was relative weaker, and even after break 50 DMA it still finished by a pin bar last Friday (1% rose also happened in oil price), I am confuse, do you have some idea?
+1 Reply
Tom1trader lantao517
@lantao517, Just been watching both xop and xle for several reasons and now price might react. Shale oil production is down, OPEC same and inventories are unusually low plus the dollar is down. all suggested crude and related equities might go up. I trade neutral more often but may place a short put spread at sept 15 expiration. Will post it here if I do. As far as ideas generally, I have impressions of where prices may go but none of our indicators tell the future so I try to trade accordingly. :-)
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