... for a 6.23 credit.
Comments: High 30-day IV at 49.0%. Selling the 25 deltas on both sides. 6.23 on BPE of 13.99. 44.5% ROC at max as a function of buying power effect; 22.3% ROC at 50% max. Delta/theta -.24/14.96.
Last Friday WTI crude NYMEX:CL1! dropped together with the broader equity markets and closed almost 7% lower at $107.99, slightly below the 50 days moving average. Earlier in the month the oil was still trying to break and stay above $120 however the hype cooled down quickly, partly due to the sharp 75 basis points rate hike by the Fed on Wednesday.
As shown with XLE, expect rollover to continue. Energy sector cooling off and will present amazing opportunity in the near future. Patience will be key. Will monitor and continue to publish updates as required.
Weekly uptrend, Counter trend trade
Daily, Trendline break
Target 125, 100
Risk management is much more important than a good entry point.
I am not a PRO trader.
In my trading plan, the Max Risk of each short term trade should be less than 1% of an account.
Shorting XOP via a long DRIP position.
Oversold on the hourly, nearly oversold on daily chart. I realize we are in an uptrend on the bigger time frame.
XOP is at top of channel and losing steam, i hope. Looking for a pullback for a short swing play.
Contrarian trade with everyone screaming to buy Oil Energy and Gas right now.
Chart looks bearish to me and smells like distribution.
Natural Gas ripped yesterday and I took EQT profits and added to XOP JUN puts.
$136 first target
XOP to me needs to cool off after this monster up leg. Starting to smell like distribution with lower highs. A monster breakout is possible, but even being bullish I'd like a dip to $120 zone before the next up leg.
Daily - seeing some bearish divergence on the RSI
Weekly - top of channel rejection (so far) with Bearish MACD cross and momo turning...
XOP looks like it's rolling over, or at the very least consolidating and heading back to sub 130 after rejection from trendline resistance and 30MA .
Whale trade short, bearish divergences on indicators. Price target sub $130
The world order established after WWII is changing before our eyes. Indexes have broken their uptrends. Nasdaq stocks have been crushed. Old commodities are becoming more important to nations than ever before. Security isn't guaranteed.
As investors our goals remain unchanged. Give ourselves and our families the best chance to succeed through financial...
Cup waiting to form handle. With that said I would look for upside to this gas & oil etf until April/May then we should see a dip into the handle into the summer. So in my opinion gas & oil prices rise until the summer and drop until August if this pattern holds true.
white dashed lines = bull/bear takeovers
blue lines = call targets
yellow lines =...
... for a 1.27 debit.
Comments: One of the only setups I didn't have to touch/adjust during all the January gyrations (i.e., no side was tested or approached worthless), but I had to wait on it longer than I would've liked. In for a 2.53 credit (See Post Below); out today at 50% max, 1.26 ($126) profit.