XOP Bull Put spread testing -1 sig

Symbol XOP
Open Date 11/8/2023
Put or Call Put
Expiry Date 12/22/2023
Short Strike 131
Long Strike 130
Price to Open 0.25
Min Width Multiple 2
Risk Ratio 3.00
Return on Risk 33.3%
Opening DTE 44
1 Day ROI% 0.76%
Max Annual ROI % 276.5%

XOP testing the 4h/Daily Bull range.
Held Oct 5 and buyer resumed.
Test again could fail, but could also attract enough activity for the algo to price higher.
IMO especially since there are gaps above in the 141-143 range.
Could need to seek liquidity on those missed orders.
Chose the 131 strike because it's at the -2 sig Bullish level.
I prefer to be behind it maybe 130 or 129, but just couldn't get the sale on the credit.
Did this yesterday morning, and maybe should've waited until the afternoon for 0.03 more, but that's hindsight.
Expiration on the 3 I sold yesterday is gonna be weird as the year closes.
Hopefully no drama that creates a rolling adventure.

Comment:

Since rolling this down and out it's had a rally and come all the way back to 130 as I'm writing this.
3 more trading days to go on this roll and it's really close to the strike again and getting closer every hour.
There's a tested daily support at 129.44 and an Hourly Last Last Level at 128.87
Either those hold or the Weekly at 128.72 has already beren tested on 12/12/2023.
Which was basically where and when I rolled this out in the first place.

It's reaching into an already balanced price range from 132-129and taping consequent Encroachment now.
So maybe the Daily re-holds, or the hourly last resort works as support.
There's also -2 sigma modeled from 12/05/2023 highs that has held price before.
That -2 sig could act as support at the very bottom of the range because the -1 sig seems to have caused a 3 point rally on 1/08/2024.

My decision now is to hold it to Exp this Fri 1/19.
Maybe the gods intervene and give me a 2 point rally here as it fills the Fair Value Gap at 130.79 after 3 drives down making new lows on the hourly.

Ugh, it's been difficult to expire easy trades the past 3 months.

Comment:

And another roll out and down today on XOP.
3 DTE and it's 1 point above strike so too close for comfort.
Plus it's trending down on the hourly chart so that sucks.
It had a bounce off a Weekly level 127.74 this morning, but it's since failed to hold -1 sig and -2 sig on that bounce so the buyer did not reappear.
It'll likely be lower tomorrow, but I've just gotta get it away from expiration date on Fri.
So Bought back for .31 and resold 1 point lower at 126 for .37.
Pulling in only 0.06 more in credit on the original roll, but this market has just continue to sell off and not pivot bullish at all for weeks.

And the one bull pivot it had in Dec 2023 was right at a Weekly level 128 and it failed to follow through, which is where I am today. Dealing with a lack of Bullish follow through on a position that is completely wrong.

And of course, today will probably hold the lows and rally back up again, but if it breaks through -2 sig and 2 weekly levels, I can't have that threatening the 127 strike.

#### Buy to close
Symbol XOP
Open Date 12/6/2023
Put or Call Put
Expiry Date 1/19/2024
Short Strike 127
Long Strike 126
Price to Open 0.13
Min Width Multiple 2
Risk Ratio 6.69
Return on Risk 14.9%
Opening DTE 44
1 Day ROI% 0.34%
Max Annual ROI % 124.0%
Buyback to Close 0.31
Open to Roll 0.37
Closing % Cost on Opening Credit -58.06%
Net Roll % on Opening Credit 146.15%
Closing Date 1/17/2024
Closing Price 0.31
Closed Margin ROI % -20.69%
Closed Annual ROI % -171.63%

#### Sell to open / roll down and out
Symbol XOP
Open Date 1/10/2024
Put or Call Put
Expiry Date 2/23/2024
Short Strike 126
Long Strike 125
Price to Open 0.19
Min Width Multiple 2
Risk Ratio 4.26
Return on Risk 23.5%
Opening DTE 44
1 Day ROI% 0.53%
Max Annual ROI % 194.6%
Buyback to Close
Open to Roll
Closing % Cost on Opening Credit
Net Roll % on Opening Credit
Closing Date
Closing Price
Closed Margin ROI %
Closed Annual ROI % 0.00%