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Bill Williams Indicators

BTC Dominance Topping Out, Going to All Time LowsBTC Dominance appears to be in a potential 7 year flat pattern. This coincides with the end of 7 year bear supercycle on alt/USD and alt/BTC pairs. The end of the flat pattern is evidenced by wave-c relating to wave-a by 61.8% in price and relating to waves (a+b)/2 in time (yellow boxes). The false break out from the orange trendline, as well as the wisemen on monthly, weekly, daily, etc charts, and the bearish momentum divergences, are all further evidence that dominance has topped. From here, it looks like BTC dominance is going to retest the lows, and considering the likelihood of the end of a 7 year bear supercycle on alts, and the beginning of a new alt season, BTC's dominance could fall to as low as 12%. Fundamentally, little has changed about BTC over the years. While some activity can be moved to layer 2s, the main BTC blockchain is still slow and inefficient, with only 7 TPS most people will not be able to afford to transact on Bitcoin. This will make retail traders and economic activity move to layer 2s and other chains. One chain which will capture a large share of economic activity from Bitcoin is TRON. It has already captured the largest share of USDT, leading to high TRX burn rates. As Bitcoin's fees begin to skyrocket again following skyrocketing Bitcoin network activity, more of Bitcoin's activity will move to wrapped BTC on chains like TRON which are fast, extremely liquid, low fees, and accepted in most places. While this will allow everybody to afford to transact with Bitcoin, it will also cannibalize Bitcoin's dominance. Chains that are similar to TRON which can capture a large share of Bitcoin's economic activity by acting as Bitcoin's layer 2, and in doing so are burning their native token for fees, are going to see their circulating supplies drop very quickly because of money earned and burned from fees, and their prices increase much faster than BTC. It would not surprise me to one day see BTC completely lose it's dominance as the largest crypto to coins which have better fundamentals, especially where they have very high fee revenue and burn rates like TRX, and are significantly faster, more scalable, and turing complete. Either way, I don't think we will ever see BTC's dominance this high again, especially as regulations in the US and around the world begin to favor BTC less and create a fair playing field with other cryptocurrencies.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.DShort
by Intuit
SMCI Battered Stock SyndromeI've seen this stock in the news a lot about some accounting irregularities (which have apparently existed for a long time with this company). Last time these allegations surfaced was August 2020 (stock is up 1000% since then). Anyway, wisemen on the daily, momentum divergences and harmonics look bullish here, so I'll take a small pre-earnings gamble on some otm december calls. Probably due for a relief rally right now and a strong earnings report after the close today could help close the gap around $50.
NASDAQ:SMCILong
by Intuit
2
EUR/JPY: Tight range when other EUR-pairs are weak. HmmmDo you trade A) Before the breakout for a better price OR B) After the breakout for confirmation ? We usually prefer B) But it helps to think through some scenarios that could happen beforehand Looking at EUR/JPY - see how it is trading in a tight range? Well other EUR pairs like EUR/USD have been falling. That shows relative strength . Or put another way - the yen is relatively weak. The price could just break straight to the topside - or it could first try to break lower in a fakeout - before breaking to the topisde. If the latter does happen - it will be one of those occations we could trade before the =breakout ;) What do you think happens? Maybe the trend turns lower - and neither scenario above is right - could easily be.
Short
by jasperlawler
How to Use Trading Zones in CryptoHello, Skyrexians! Last two articles were the deep dive into the Awesome Oscillator and Acceleration Deceleration indicators by Bill Williams. In conjunction with the fractals and the alligator these indicators are the powerful concept in cryptocurrency trading. It can significantly boost your cryptocurrency trading strategy, crypto trading algorithm or you can implement it into trading bot. Today we will expand this concept with the trading zones - the periods on the market with the bullish or bearish superiority. Trading zones is not the popular concept in comparison to Awesome Oscillator, that's why using it can give you a huge advantage in crypto trading because even top crypto traders don't use it in their trading routine. Let's go through its concept. Before start observing the trading zones concept we have to understand what are the Awesome Oscillator and Acceleration/Deceleration. Awesome oscillator is the approximation of the market's driving force. Usually it starts moving before the price if this is an impulsive wave. During corrections it can flash the false signals. Before the driving force starts moving the acceleration changes its direction. That's why combination of these indicators is so important. What is the trading zone? As you know from AO and AC descriptions they can have 2 conditions: increasing (greed bars) and decreasing (red bars). According to this we can define 3 marker conditions: Green zone. Both AO and AC have the increasing columns. This is the strong bullish phase. Only long trades are allowed. Red zone. Both AO and AC have the decreasing columns. This is the strong bearish phase. Only short trades are allowed. Gray zone. AO and AC have the different directions. No signals can be generated by this trading zone
Education
by Skyrexio
SUNCAT Triangle Ending, Going to $200M+ (Elliott Wave)SUNCAT is one of the blue chip memecoins on TRON, with a strong community, consistent volume, and stable price. It's currently sitting at around $10M market cap. From a wave perspective, SUNCAT has formed into a perfect Neowave contracting triangle. Wave-a is the largest and most violent wave Wave-b takes more time than wave-a and retraces more than 61.8% of wave-a Wave-c relates to waves a+b in time, and wave-a by ~61.8% in price Wave-d relates to waves b+c in time, and wave-b by ~61.8% in price Wave-e relates to waves (c+d)/2 in time, and wave-a by ~38.2% in price Channeling creates a clear contracting pattern Based on all these fibonacci price and time relations, and based on the longer-term chart it appears that we are ending this triangle now and preparing for a move towards at least $200M market cap assuming this next move up is similar in size to the last move up. If it is larger then it's possible that SUNCAT could go to SEED_TVCODER77_ETHBTCDATA:1B + market cap. Either way, it seems like SUNCAT will continue to be extremely profitable for holders in the near future.
Long
by Intuit
Minimum Target for TRX of 22 cents in September (Elliott Wave)TRX has formed into a running c-failure flat corrective pattern, with wave-c forming a very large 5th wave extension terminal impulse. Glenn Neely told me last week when working on this count that terminal impulse patterns often go on for longer and further than most people expect, and this occurred here because wave-c was much longer and larger than what would have otherwise been expected, such as the max time target of a+b, and the max price target of c=a both being exceeded (red boxes). We're also seeing a strong bounce now which is a probable sign of a bottom right as wave-5 is equal to wave-1+3 in price and wave-1+2+3+4 in time. All these signs are very very good that we are about to continue the larger break out that I have been talking about for several months! The minimum target of 22 cents comes from the strength exhibited by the c-failure flat pattern which implies we should see a move that is at least 161.8% of wave-1 (assuming it is wave-1 and not something else). It's also possible wave-1 and 2 are mislabeled and actually an even larger pattern is ending at wave-2. This would mean that we see a move which far exceeds 22 cents in September! This all coincides very well with the memecoin strategy being employed now by Justin Sun which will bring tons of marketing attention on TRON as traders continue to get rich from memecoins like they did with SUNDOG and SUNCAT. I've also launched my own memecoin on Sunpump called FEELS which I believe could be very successful in the future, and is backed by a diversified reserve of tron-based crypto assets and memecoins.
Long
by Intuit
1
Books on trading and Profitunity strategy by Bill WilliamsIn this article, I will share books that were useful for me in the process of studying trading and the Profitunity trading strategy by Bill Williams. Bill Williams "Trading Chaos 1 and 2" ♡ The first and third books by Bill Williams contain complete and up-to-date information on the Profitunity strategy. The second book "New Trading Dimensions" is intermediate and less relevant. The book Trading Chaos 1 includes trading psychology (an integral part of trading), the basics of understanding the markets, candlestick patterns (divergent bars and determining the trend based on a pair of bars, the market facilitation index, volume and squat bar), Elliott waves (characteristics, determining waves using the MACD 5/34/5 indicator, an analogue of the modern Awesome Oscillator, and the Fibonacci ratio), fractals, trading in waves (impulses 1-3-5 and ABC correction). And also very important topics — how to work with your internal structure and how our brain functions (Chapter 11). The book Trading Chaos 2 (co-authored by Bill Williams' daughter Justine Gregory) includes a description of the Alligator indicator in combination with the Awesome Oscillator, divergent bars and fractals. And also tools for working on yourself - morning pages (Chapter 13, from the book by Julia Cameron "The Artist's Way") and autogenic training for traders by Johannes Schultz (Appendix 3). Tom Hougaard "Best Loser Wins" ♡ The book greatly expands the perception of markets, the approach to trading and deeply describes the psychology of trading. The book was first published in 2022 and perfectly complements the books by Bill Williams. John J. Murphy "Technical Analysis of the Futures Markets" A basic book on classical (linear) technical analysis, which also contains up-to-date information on Elliott Wave Theory in addition to the corresponding section in the book by Bill Williams "Trading Chaos 1". Alexander Elder "Trading for a living" (How to Play and Win on the Stock Exchange) A book on the psychology of trading and classical chart analysis, includes a detailed description of popular indicators and a description of the basic strategy "Three Screens" (analysis of the chart on the senior and junior timeframes), as well as an important topic "Risk management". Steve Nison "Japanese Candlesticks" A basic book on classical candlestick (bar) analysis. Thomas DeMark "Technical Analysis - a new science" Constructing trend lines based on the support price minimums and maximums described in the book led me to search for an indicator that displays such bars, as a result, I first became acquainted with the Bill Williams Fractals indicator, even before I became acquainted with his strategy. Theodore Dreiser "The Financier" ☽ A novel published in 1912 based on the life story of the American millionaire Charles Yerkes (1837-1905). The book shows how the financial and economic environment surrounding the main character (Frank Cowperwood) already from childhood forms in him the psychology of a businessman and stock dealer... Robin Sharma "The 5 AM Club" ☆ This book is not about trading, but about healthy habits. But for me the book became useful, including in trading, because I made the following conclusion for myself - it is important to rest (take breaks) every day, and not only on weekends and vacations. And it is worth starting with the fact that after waking up there is free time (about 1 hour) before business activity begins, i.e. either wake up earlier, or move all things forward, so that you can start your day easily. And taking breaks in trading is very important, so I recommend paying attention, for example, to the algorithm for removing limitations using neurographics. (◉ ‿ ◉) There are many good books, as well as good strategies, but I am sure that only independent deep study, practice, good concentration and self-control will allow you to find your own understanding of the markets and your own approach to successful trading.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by grigorykov
Deep dive into Acceleration / Deceleration Indicator Hello, Skyrexians! Last time we discussed how you can use the Awesome Oscillator to create profitable crypto trading strategies and which type of signals it generates. Today we will deep dive into Acceleration/Deceleration (AC) the next Bill Williams indicator, which can also enhance your cryptocurrency trading strategy. This indicator also can be valuable not only for manual trades, but also for developing your crypto trading algorithm, crypto algo trading platform, crypto trading bot, ai trading bot or grid bot. The main thing is to understand what is the AC indicator and which signals it generate, which signals we shall use in crypto trading like top crypto traders. Let's go! What is Acceleration / Deceleration? The Acceleration/Deceleration Oscillator (AC) is a technical analysis indicator developed by Bill Williams, a notable trader and author known for his work in market psychology and trading systems. This indicator helps traders identify changes in market momentum and potential trend reversals. How the Acceleration/Deceleration (AC) Indicator Works? The AC indicator is based on the idea that the momentum of the market (speed of price movement) often changes before the price itself changes. By identifying these shifts in momentum early, traders can anticipate potential trend changes. The AC is derived from the Awesome Oscillator (AO), another indicator created by Bill Williams, which is the difference between a 34-period and a 5-period simple moving average of the median price (the average of high and low prices). The AC is calculated by subtracting a 5-period simple moving average of the AO from the AO itself. Mathematically, it can be represented as: AC = AO − SMA5(AO) Where AO is Awesome Oscillator (calculated as the difference between the 34-period SMA and the 5-period SMA of the median price). SMA5(AO) is 5-period simple moving average of the AO. Now let's consider which types of signals AC can generate.
Education
by Skyrexio
Deep dive into Awesome OscillatorsHello, Skyrexians! We continue our series of educational content. Today it's time to consider the Awesome Oscillator, the indicator introduced by Bill Williams in his book "Trading Chaos". It can be very useful in your crypto trading. A lot of crypto trading strategies use this indicator. You can combine it with other indicators to create your crypto trading algorithm, trading bot or manual cryptocurrency trading strategy. Most of top crypto traders and top crypto trading platforms use it in their automated crypto trading. If you will be aware you to trade using Awesome Oscillator will be able to enhance your automated trading bot, manual trading strategy or setup grid trading bot more effectively. We think there is enough arguments to learn how to use this indicator. Let's start our deep dive! What is Awesome Oscillator? The Awesome Oscillator (AO) is a momentum indicator used in technical analysis to measure the strength and direction of a market trend. It was created by Bill Williams and is designed to help traders identify potential reversals or trend continuations. Key Features of the Awesome Oscillator: Momentum Measurement: The AO measures the difference between a short-term moving average and a long-term moving average, using midpoints of each candlestick rather than closing prices. This provides insights into the market's momentum. Histogram Representation: The indicator is typically displayed as a histogram, with bars oscillating above and below a zero line. Green bars represent increasing momentum (bullish), while red bars indicate decreasing momentum (bearish). The Awesome Oscillator is calculated using simple moving average(SMA) as follows: AO = SMA(5-period) − SMA(34-period) Now let's consider the signals which can be produced by Awesome Oscillator with the examples.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by Skyrexio
eHEX Perfect Fibonacci Pattern, Potential 10,000x Gains?Wave-B relates to wave-A by 161.8% in time and 61.8% in price, creating a perfect price AND time fibonacci relationship. Internally, Wave-B seems to be forming into some sort of complex correction with a good chance of a bottom here because of the internal relationships between each phase of the complex correction. HEX has also created a weekly wiseman buy signal along with bullish momentum divergences, and with a wider crypto bull market potentially beginning now HEX could start making its way back towards ATHs. Since this is an extremely volatile and controversial coin just a move back to the ATH would be over 500x gains, and a move similar to wave-A would be over 20,000x gains. It's not recommended to put a large amount into this trade because it is extremely volatile, but even a small amount could eventually become a much larger amount if it gets another wave like wave-A or even just goes back to the ATH, and based on the time/price relations a move like that could be coming soon. HEX is actually forked into two coins, HEX on Ethereum (eHEX) and HEX on PulseChain (pHEX). I am buying a little bit of both but just know this chart specifically relates to HEX on Ethereum. The process of buying is also not exactly straightforward, you can buy eHEX on MEXC but liquidity is low. The best way is bridging to PulseChain and buying eHEX on PulseX, but you'll need to get some PLS to pay tx fees. You can also buy pHEX on PulseX which may or may not perform better than eHEX.
CRYPTO:HEXUSDLong
by Intuit
XRP Heading to $200+?As I said in June, the XRP trial was likely coming to an end soon, and today the final judgement was received and Ripple has to pay a $125 million fine, which is much less than what the SEC was seeking and easily payable by Ripple. SEC may try to appeal the secondary sales ruling but the appeals court and the supreme court both heavily lean right and are likely to side with Ripple. An appeal will create binding precedent which will ultimately help increase regulatory clarity by unifying inconsistent rulings from district judges. From a wave perspective, this lines up perfectly with the a+b=c time target which created a bottom in July, as I said it would in June. Structurally, this may have formed into a flat with a complex expanding b-wave and a terminal c-wave. From here, wave-c should be retraced very quickly and that should end a correction which began nearly 7 years ago. The retesting of the July low and the continued strength being shown is a strong sign that this chart is going to move up fast soon and start making ATHs this year. As long as July's low continues to hold then this chart will remain bullish. If that low is broken then it is best to stop out and reassess this chart. Based on William's indicators, the OHLC on the last two monthly bars is very bullish, with July creating a nice wiseman signals and this month creating a strong bullish bar at this point in time. Momentum, acceleration, and SMMAs are indicating that volatility has become extremely muted and is ready to explode. Volatility has become very compressed on XRP, so whichever way it breaks from this low volatility range is likely to see a significant increase in volatility. Almost all signs are pointing to a massive break up at this point, and volatility which could reach 2017 levels.
Long
by Intuit
2
Is Bitcoin BTC and crypto scamming now or it's FUDHello, Skyrexians! This weekend was extremely fearful on the crypto market, even more, today is a true "black Monday" and not only crypto, but also traditional markets are crashing right now. The most commonly known crypto trading strategies gave false signals before the crash. Most of top crypto trading platforms and top crypto traders faces with the huge losses, algorithmic trading bots and other algorithmic crypto trading software led their users to losses and liquidation. Different automated trading bots, grid bot and other cryptocurrency trading also performed awful for most of a people. Only ai crypto trading bot allowed people not to lose. The really dark time came to the market, how to overcome all this FUD and be successful in crypto trading. We know that the most important is understanding on which market phase we are now. In today's article we will look at the different charts and time frames on BINANCE:BTCUSDT price chart and try to understand what is coming next. Monthly time frame shows it's almost done If you see our previous Bitcoin analysis you will find that GETTEX:49K was absolutely reachable. But the speed of this move really concerns us and we need to take a look at the global picture first of all. The sideways which started in March 2024 led to the first red column on Awesome Oscillator, and this is our first reminder that the bull market is not forever. This is the first sign of weakness. Momentum is gone, therefore we cannot wait for the bull run continuation to the insane numbers like $200k. Bull market is almost over! The bearish divergence and Elliott waves counting tells us that wave 5 of super cycle is done and we will enter the bear market which has never been before. Is it time to panic? We assume not! Last wave 5 shall also consists of 5 waves and we cannot see now the clear confirmation that this bull run is finished. It's weakening but will likely continue. Where it will be finished. The approximate projection for wave 5 shows us that BTC will likely reach $80k+, but not significantly higher. After that we will see the bear market with target at $35k.
by Skyrexio
3
Will StarkNet STRK revive from the dead zone? Hello, Skyrexians! Today we have another one "perspective" crypto to overview. This is BINANCE:STRKUSDT token. Since Binance listing price dropped significantly and continue dropping now. Entire crypto market dump boosted the STRK sell-off. Today we will analyze in details this asset and try to understand will this coin pump or die. It's vital for successful cryptocurrency trading to consider all possible scenarios. Looking at the most of ideas on this asset we can conclude that most of the crypto trading strategies gave the advice to buy this coin when price was above $1.5. Obviously, it's not profitable crypto trading strategies. Even automate crypto trading of most cryptocurrency trading platforms fails to predict the price of this asset because after dumping at 50% it continues dumping, which is not likely according to the most crypto trading algorithm. That's why most of automated trading bots and grid bot faced with losses for this asset. The exception is the ai crypto trading bot which takes into account the Elliott wave, the key feature of successful crypto trading. Today we consider STRK price action using advanced technique. Let's go! STRK dump structure Let's use the 1D time frame to analyze this downtrend. Fortunately, it has the clear Elliott waves structure. Awesome oscillator helps us to find the most impulsive wave 3, this is the min value. After this the price formed the flat or triangle wave 4. If crypto has already significantly drop it tends to form the flat corrections without big retracement to the upside. This is because most of early bulls have been locked in their position and they shall be disappointed before reversal. Now we can see three strong signs of trend reversal. Awesome oscillator crossed zero line after wave 3 bottom reaching, it has printed bullish divergence and the momentum now is upward. In most of cases these are enough to make a decision about the entering trade, but we will make the deep dive further in different indicators.
Long
by Skyrexio
2
Composite way.Hi, everybody. This is one of those composite charts that are designed to help you understand a little more. First let me say that if you look at the larger timeframes, the whole market situation looks like some sideways movement. While some see a rise as early as tomorrow and others see the market falling, I see no clear signs of either right now. My personal opinion. But I do see something in the future. So, we take the capitalisation of all coins without BTC and ETH, subtract Tether additionally from it and divide by BTC. On the left is a daily chart, on the right 19D. Daily. I haven't switched on the Volume Flow Indicator (VFI) for a long time. There is a positive signal, the short volume EMA crossed the long EMA to form a golden cross. If the volume data is valid, it means that the process of pumping liquidity into Total3 is underway. The signal from the 9 seasons rainbow is ambiguous. We have as many as three fuchsia-coloured stripes signalling a crazy sell, and they have been replaced by light red stripes. In typical cases this is interpreted as: Crazy Sold (Fuchsia) -> Bear Bounce (Light Red): This normally indicates price has dropped to a new level In addition, the Whalemap Indicator recorded purchases in February this year at 0.43. It is assumed that the profit on these purchases is underperforming. Now the altcoin market is below this buying point. 19D. Here I will switch to Ichimoku and Stupid Willy. On the clouds we can see the "thin neck" area. Anyone who has been following my charts for a long time knows that I keep a close eye on these areas. When Senkou Span A and B come so close, it means an area extremely convenient for a resistance breakout. For price to break out above the clouds and start a run. On this chart, the neckline starts on 23 September and ends on 31 October. We can expect a breakout in this time frame, I think. Stupid Willy showed a switching trend signal from red to green as early as the end of April, and pretty quickly back to red again. However, these signals occur when the black EMA crosses the major signal line. And the black has once again come close to the leading line. I expect that by mid-summer we will have a sustained green. Past pumps have formed two tops on this chart. 1.34 and 0.98. Additionally, I will highlight the resistance level of 0.68. 0.68 is the first target that the TOTAL-3 should pass towards new tops. Unfortunately everything is still very slow. But we are not discouraged. I remember the summer and autumn of 2017, not everyone actually thought growth was possible. Killing faith is one of the tricks of this market.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3
by averkie_skila