IV rank a little high on this
max risk is the debit until the front month expiration
Underlying price when opened 173.20
Upper and Lower expected move 167.70 176.90
break evens 167 and 180 gives a little more room above
With the break even points being clearly outside of the expected move (per implied volatilty which is often overstated anyway) this trade has a high probability of profit. I will close it before expiration no matter what.https://www.tradingview.com/chart/OsBXckpZ/
Added 167 leg (front short OTM back long OTM as all of the others for and additional 1.46 debit.
Theta now 8.19 new BE 164.5 178.5 This was done 3-19 at 10 days to expiration of the short options.
Net result $203 down on trade and around $15 ($12 total commissions and $3 pass through exchange fees). The market character had changed and stopped looking at calendars for a while.