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Statisticalprobability

Dax daily: 31 Jul 2019 We welcome you by the last DAX analysis of the month. We expected a downside yesterday with lazy price action. It was pretty clear shortly after the open that the volatility was beyond laziness. The price sliced through the support of 12 368 like a knife and within two hours, Dax stretched its range to some 170 points. Today we open with an ascending gap. Important zones Resistance: 12 284, 12 195 Support: NIL Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application The statistical probability of breaking yesterday's low is 83% Macroeconomic releases USA - 20:00 CEST - Federal Funds Rate + FOMC Statement USA - 20:30 CEST - FOMC Press Conference Today's session hypothesis We have a high probability of breaking yesterday's low and therefore all our short trades have a clearly defined target. Another good key for today's price estimation is the increased probability of Dax closing inside yesterday's range. Sellers could step in around 12 195, if not sooner. Some bullish powers can be anticipated after yesterday's low breakout.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 24 Jul 2019 Our Statistical Application did a great job again. As per the statistical probabilities, it was very likely that Dax would continue its upward move and so it happened. The price went up just to slow down at the resistance level of 12 380 and then went over the roof, making a strong upward momentum for the entire intraday trading. Important zones Resistance: 12 540, 12 576 Support: 12 437, 12 338 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application The statistical probability of closing the gap is 69% The statistical probability of breaking yesterday's high is 90% Macroeconomic releases 09:15 - 10:00 CEST - Eurozone PMIs Today's session hypothesis Yesterday's session was very bullish. The statistics play for today's continuation as well. The combination of probabilities suggests we could retest 12 541. Another resistance we have lays around 12 576. The start of the session is great as well as the price drops slightly which is a positive key for us as the long trades have a better filling. Let's not forget that although we have a strong bullish confluence, the market might go its own way. Be careful around PMIs releases from Eurozone.
EUREX:FDAX1!Long
by FTMO
Dax daily: 18 Jul 2019 Yesterday's session was exemplary from the price action point of view. The descending trend line functioned as a resistance and the price bounced off that level. Bears were aggressive enough to create a strong momentum, pushing Dax lower till the session end. This strongly negative day was closed at 12 294. Important zones Resistance: 12 293, trend line Support: 12 189 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis This morning, Dax opened with a descending gap which is sized 94 points. No surprise that yesterday's bearish momentum prevailed and the priced gapped in the same direction. The probability of closing the gap today is relatively small. Although the price dropped down to touch the support zone of 12 189, it doesn't necessarily mean Dax can't continue even lower. We estimate the initial correction of yesterday's downfall followed by another bearish action.
EUREX:FDAX1!Short
by FTMO
Dax daily: 10 Jul 2019 Yesterday's session turned out to follow our hypothesis only partially. Dax started its decline towards 12 391, but buyers didn't use this level to enter the market. Following was a descend towards the second support zone in a row, laying at 12 326, yet this price wasn't reached and Dax reversed upwards. In the end, Dax closed approximately in the middle of its range. The support level of 12 391 functioned properly after a pullback at 2:30pm. Important zones Resistance: 12 500 Support: 12 326 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases USA - 20:00 CEST - FOMC Meeting Minutes Today's session hypothesis Today we have a very high statistical probability for closing the gap. We could also expect the resistance at 12 500 being retested and attracting sellers. Yesterday's high breakout has a probability of 64% . Another nice zone nearby is the support level at 12 326 where we might see a bullish correction. Also, we have a higher probability of 77% for closing inside yesterday's range.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 09 Jul 2019 Yesterday's session was very nice from our point of view. As we highlighted, Dax first went up to close the gap at the resistance level of 12 564. The price then reversed exemplarily and the high intra-day swing was formed as well. Today, Dax opens with a descending gap and so far, the momentum indicates the retest of the support level laying at 12 391. Important zones Resistance: 12 504 Support: 12 391, 12 329 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis Right now, we are in the gap territory formed between 28 Jun and 01 Jul. For this reason, we anticipate a move towards 12 391 where we could find some buyers. If the support level of 12 391 doesn't hold bearish momentum, then another suitable buy zone is at 12 326. On the other hand, if bulls dominate the market from the beginning, it is likely the price will bounce off the 12 504 for some nice correction. If that doesn't happen, the probability of breaking yesterday's high is still least likely, with only 9% chance of this happening.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 04 Jul 2019 Welcome to the last analysis of this week. Tomorrow's analysis will be skipped due to a national holiday. Yesterday's statistics for breaking Tuesday's high was successfully passed. Dax rose all day and closed near its intra-day high. Today, we open with a smaller descending gap. Important zones Resistance: NIL Support: 12 597, 12 543 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application The statistical probability of breaking yesterday's high is 90% Macroeconomic releases USA - National holiday of Independence day Today's session hypothesis Today's plan is pretty straight forward. Just as yesterday, we have an increased statistical probability of breaking yesterday's high, hence all the trades have a clear target. We could find some buyers at 12 597 or even lower at 12 543. In case bulls are aggressive enough, it is likely they will start aiming higher right from the beginning of the session.
EUREX:FDAX1!Long
by FTMO
Dax daily: 03 Jul 2019 Yet another session without a gap. Sellers attempted to retest prices from the last week, yet to no avail. It was just around 12 475 when Dax turned around from its slight downward correction and eventually closed where it opened the daily session. Important zones Resistance: 12 600 Support: 12 391, 12 428 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application The statistical probability of breaking yesterday's high is 83% Macroeconomic releases 09:15 - 10:00 CEST - Eurozone PMIs Today's session hypothesis We'll base our today's analysis on the fact we have a higher statistical probability of breaking yesterday's high. Thanks to yesterday's close, the odds incline the price might go higher, beyond yesterday's high. Our statistical application indicates that such situation happened in 83% of historical occurrences. This is a strong indication that plays for bull traders. Should this scenario happen, we estimate that 12 600 could be targeted as well. If not, the price decline towards 12 475 or even lower towards 12 428 is likely in a reverse situation.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
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