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EUR/USD: Technical Rebound in Progress — Watch 1.1550🔹 COT (Commitment of Traders) Euro (EUR) Non-commercial longs: 252,472 (−789) Non-commercial shorts: 138,127 (+2,625) → Institutions are reducing long exposure and adding shorts, suggesting a loss of bullish momentum on the euro. US Dollar Index (DXY) Non-commercial longs: 14,032 (+1,541) Non-commercial shorts: 24,376 (−1,009) → Institutions are adding longs and cutting shorts, reflecting growing confidence in the USD. Institutional flows confirm a bearish bias on EUR/USD, with strengthening USD sentiment and mild euro weakness. 🔹 FX Sentiment (Retail Positioning) 50% short / 50% long Market sentiment is perfectly balanced — a neutral retail positioning indicating no clear contrarian signal, consistent with a possible short-term consolidation phase. 🔹 Seasonality Historically, October tends to be neutral to slightly negative for EUR/USD (−0.2% to −0.5% on 10–20-year averages). Shorter cycles (2–5 years) show minor positive returns, suggesting that any rebound may be temporary within a broader bearish structure. Slight downside bias, with potential for short-term corrective upside. 🔹 Price Action EUR/USD recently reacted from the 1.1530–1.1550 demand zone, showing signs of short-term accumulation. The descending channel has been broken to the upside, and price is now retesting the previous mid-range support (1.1600–1.1620). RSI remains neutral but shows a gradual bullish divergence building at the lows. 🎯 Main Scenario: If 1.1600–1.1620 holds as support, a short-term bullish leg toward 1.1710–1.1780 (former supply area) is possible. Invalidation: daily close below 1.1550, which would reopen downside toward 1.1500.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
3
BTCUSD: Waiting for breakout confirmation near the range highBTCUSD – Analysis for October 24, 2025 Yesterday, we had two trading setups for BITSTAMP:BTCUSD . The IRB setup played out as planned when the price rebounded from the EMA, formed a consolidation zone within the range, and then broke out strongly, pushing up toward the upper boundary of the range. This move shows that bullish momentum is still present, although the resistance near the range high remains a key area where short-term profit-taking may occur. Today’s Trading Plan Wait for the price to compress and form a tight consolidation zone near the upper boundary of the range. Confirmation condition: No candle closes below the EMA, which would confirm that buying pressure remains in control. Once a RB or ARB setup appears, that will be our signal to enter long positions. Bullish Scenario (primary bias): Entry: On confirmed RB/ARB setup near the upper edge of the range Stop Loss: Below the nearest EMA Take Profit: Targeting extended resistance levels above the range Alternative Scenario: If the price closes below the EMA and breaks the compression structure, we’ll stay out of the market and wait for a new setup once the structure stabilizes. Summary BTC continues to show strength, but the upper range boundary remains a key test. Today’s plan: Wait – Confirm – Execute. Avoid FOMO until a clear confirmation appears. Daniel Miller @ ZuperView
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by ZuperView
GOLD Sell Signal (XAUUSD)📉 GOLD Sell Signal (XAUUSD) 🔹 Entry: 4140 🎯 Final Target: 4095 🛡️ Stop Loss: (Set according to your risk plan) Analysis: Gold is facing strong resistance around 4140, showing signs of bearish momentum. If sellers stay active below this level, price could move down toward 4095. Wait for confirmation with bearish candles or a break below intraday support before entering. 📊 Trend: Bearish Bias Developing 💬 Share your thoughts below & follow for more GOLD setups! #Gold #XAUUSD #SellSignal #ForexSignals #BearishSetup #TradingView
TVC:GOLDShort
by VIP-Forex-Signals-free
BTCUSD: Sideways - Watch for setup near range boundariesBITSTAMP:BTCUSD Analysis – October 22, 2025 BITSTAMP:BTCUSD is currently trading within a sideways range between 107,726 and 111,377 USD. After a breakout attempt, the price formed a buildup zone near the lower boundary of the range and surged upwards. However, it then created a false breakout at the upper boundary before pulling back to retest the previous buildup area. This false breakout was caused by weakening buying momentum after breaking above the range, partly because the buildup zone was too far from the upper boundary, limiting the follow-through. According to yesterday’s plan, we are waiting for a buildup close to the upper boundary and EMA compression to confirm a valid breakout. Trading plan for today: Look to sell when price forms a buildup near the lower boundary of the range with EMA compressing close. Enter the trade upon the appearance of rejection signals such as RB or ARB. The buy setup has not yet formed clearly but may be considered if an IRB appears within the larger BTC range. In summary, BTC is still in an accumulation phase. Prioritize waiting for confirmed signals before entering trades to minimize risk. Daniel Miller @ ZuperView
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by ZuperView
Market Seasonality: Finding Statistical Edges in Price Patterns🟢 Overview Market seasonality refers to recurring, quantifiable patterns in asset price movements that appear consistently across different time periods. Rather than mystical predictions, these patterns reflect systematic behavioral trends, institutional flows, and market structures that have persisted across years, and in some cases, centuries, of trading history. 🟢 How Seasonality Works Seasonality analysis examines historical price data to identify months or periods when specific assets have historically shown strength or weakness. The approach replaces emotion-driven decision-making with probabilistic insights based on historical performance across complete market cycles, including bull markets, bear markets, and periods of consolidation. By quantifying these patterns, traders and investors can identify potential statistical edges in their execution timing. 🟢 Evidence Across Asset Classes 1. Bitcoin INDEX:BTCUSD Since the development of futures markets and institutional participation, Bitcoin has demonstrated notable seasonal patterns with measurable statistical significance. September has averaged -1.92% returns, establishing it as the weakest month. In contrast, October has emerged as the strongest performer with average returns of +21.59% and a 90% positive occurrence. This level of consistency suggests a robust statistical edge rather than random variation. Day-of-week patterns in modern Bitcoin are relatively tight, with differences ranging from 0.07% to 0.50%. Monday edges out as the optimal day for selling positions. However, these daily patterns offer considerably less statistical significance than the monthly seasonality effects, as the weekly variations have smoothed out compared to Bitcoin's earlier history. 2. Ethereum INDEX:ETHUSD Ethereum displays even more pronounced seasonal variations with stronger directional bias. September has been particularly challenging, averaging -10.04% returns and showing negative performance in eight out of ten years, representing an 80% probability of decline. June also demonstrates weakness at -7.20% average returns. Conversely, May stands out as the strongest month with average returns of +34.97%, positive 70% of the time across the dataset. May has delivered positive returns in seven out of ten years, providing a statistically meaningful edge. Day-of-week analysis reveals differences of 0.2% to 0.6%, with Wednesday edging out slightly for selling and Tuesday showing marginally better performance for buying. However, these daily variations lack statistical significance when compared to the dramatic monthly patterns, representing more noise than actionable alpha for systematic strategies. 3. S&P 500 SP:SPX With over 50 years of data dating back to 1971, the S&P 500 demonstrates the famous "September Effect." September averages -0.90% returns and has been negative with notable consistency, establishing statistical significance through sheer sample size. November, capturing typical year-end institutional positioning, averages +1.73% with positive performance 70% of the time. April comes in second at +1.44% average returns. The persistence of these patterns across five decades provides robust evidence of systematic seasonal effects even in highly efficient markets. Day-of-week effects in the S&P 500 are minimal, ranging from just 0.01% to 0.07%. Monday shows a slight negative drift at -0.01%, while Wednesday edges up 0.07%. These intraday variations fall well within normal variance and lack statistical significance for execution timing. For this index, monthly patterns provide the primary source of seasonal alpha. 4. Gold OANDA:XAUUSD Perhaps most compelling is gold's seasonal data spanning nearly 200 years since 1832, offering an extraordinarily large sample size for statistical validation. January shows the strongest average returns at +0.99% and has been positive 80% of the time, representing a highly reliable statistical edge. June represents the weakest period at -0.18% average returns, with October also serving as a potential entry point at just 0.05% average returns. July comes in as the second-best month at +0.79%. The consistency of these patterns across multiple centuries, world events, and monetary system changes indicates deeply embedded structural inefficiencies in market dynamics. Day-of-week patterns in gold are similarly minimal. Thursday edges out at 0.09% for optimal selling, while Sunday shows 0.01% for buying opportunities. Like the S&P 500, gold trades predominantly on monthly patterns rather than daily variations, with intraweek effects lacking statistical significance. 🟢 TL;DR 1. Bitcoin INDEX:BTCUSD : Accumulate during September weakness (-1.92%), sell into October strength (+21.59%). October has been positive 9 out of 10 years since 2015, representing a 90% positive occurrence. Day of week: Sunday dips for buying, Monday for selling. 2. Ethereum INDEX:ETHUSD : Summer pain is real. September (-10.04%) and June (-7.20%) are buying opportunities. May (+34.97%) is the monster month historically, positive 7 out of 10 years (70% positive frequency). Day of week: Tuesday buying, Wednesday selling, but minimal statistical significance. 3. S&P 500 SP:SPX : The September Effect demonstrates statistical significance (-0.90% average over 50+ years). November (+1.73%) captures the year-end rally with 70% positive occurrence. Day of week effects are negligible (0.01-0.07%) and lack statistical significance. 4. Gold OANDA:XAUUSD : January strength (+0.99%, 80% positive frequency) after June weakness (-0.18%). Nearly 200 years of data backing these patterns provides exceptional statistical validation. Day of week: Sunday buying, Thursday selling, but minimal differences. 🟢 Final thoughts Ultimately, seasonality analysis does not guarantee future results, but it provides a framework for probabilistic decision-making with quantifiable statistical edges. Rather than attempting to time markets based on sentiment or short-term price movements, systematic traders and investors can align decisions with periods that have historically shown consistent strength or weakness with statistical significance. This approach is particularly valuable for planning entry and exit points, portfolio rebalancing, and managing position sizing within a rules-based framework. Notably, while day-of-week patterns exist in some assets, monthly seasonality tends to provide more significant and statistically reliable edges across most markets. The data suggests that seasonal patterns persist even in highly efficient markets, driven by recurring institutional behaviors, tax considerations, and structural market dynamics that create exploitable inefficiencies. Market seasonality should be viewed as one analytical tool within a comprehensive quantitative framework, not a guarantee of performance, but a method to incorporate historical probabilities and statistical edges into systematic investment decisions. This isn't about perfect timing either. It's about leveraging statistical edges based on historical probabilities instead of emotion. You'll still be wrong sometimes, but less often when operating with decades of data and quantifiable patterns rather than sentiment alone. 👉 Try the Seasonality Heatmap indicator yourself on TradingView to explore these patterns across different assets and timeframes. *This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
INDEX:BTCUSDEducation
by QuantAlgo
XAUUSD Bearish Structure Breakdown and Retest SetupSimple Analysis & Description: The chart shows a Change of Character (CHOCH) at the top, signaling a possible end to the bullish trend. Two major breakdowns occurred after price failed to maintain the ascending trendline, confirming bearish momentum. A clear Break of Structure (BOS) formed, shifting market direction from bullish to bearish. Price made a retest of the broken structure (highlighted yellow zone), which often acts as a new supply zone. The gray zone below marks the next potential demand area or target zone, where price could react or find support. The Ichimoku Cloud is now above the candles, indicating bearish pressure and potential continuation to the downside. Summary: ➡️ Trend: Bearish ➡️ Key Zone: 4,297–4,329 (supply / retest zone) ➡️ Target Zone: 4,221 area (potential demand/support)
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by LUCIFER_EARNING_CLUB
1
BTC - Predicting Scalps with Order Blocks Here’s another practical example of “Will Bitcoin Move Up or Down?” Will Bitcoin Move up or down from 108,500? In this example we will be taking a trade from the consolidation point of 108,500 In my previous posts I’ve taught you how to draw order blocks of stop loss orders and use them to predict movement. We draw green boxes for BUY orders ABOVE price and red boxes for SELL orders BELOW price. Note how this is opposite to how we are told to look at charts - with limit buys below and limit sells above. Stop Loss orders only full when price crosses the level and buys are above, sells are below. In this example we will factor in Consolidation Time / Duration to predict price. Although there are significant gaps of short stop losses above, the time of consolidation that collects the long stop loss orders is much larger in duration. I’ve drawn the boxes here in widths to show length of time price has consolidated to attract these orders. The more time in consolidation without a recovery of these order blocks, the more orders are accumulated and therefor more buying or selling power. Because there are much more long stop loss orders accumulated: Bitcoin will DROP from 108,500 and we can set a take profit on the short at the end of this order block range at 78,000
Short
by DickDandy
BTCUSD: Waiting for EMA pullback and bullish setupBITSTAMP:BTCUSD Analysis – October 20, 2025 Overview: After a strong drop to the 103,600 area, BITSTAMP:BTCUSD is showing a solid recovery momentum. Price has broken out of the previous accumulation range and made a pullback, but the early buying opportunity has already passed. Trading Plan for Today: Currently, price is approaching a previous key resistance level—a critical zone to watch for reaction. The main strategy is to wait for a pullback toward the EMA zone and look for a confirmed buy setup based on one of the following patterns: DD (Double Doji) – indicating a potential pause and reversal. SB (Second Break) – confirming continuation of the bullish trend. Alternative Scenario: If BTC continues to rally strongly without a pullback and breaks above the key level. It’s better to stay on the sidelines rather than chase the move. Avoid FOMO when the market doesn’t offer a clear setup — patience usually brings higher-probability entries. Daniel Miller @ ZuperView
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by ZuperView
ES (SPX, SPY) Analysis, Key Levels, Setups Tue (Oct 21)Market Update for Traders: Context: Currently, the price is approaching a key supply zone between 6,765 and 6,795. While we have seen a series of higher highs on the 1-hour chart, the momentum appears to be flattening. Below this supply level, we have identified some significant areas to monitor. The first clean value area on the 1-hour chart is around 6,701 to 6,705, with a visible pullback shelf located between 6,685 and 6,690. There's also a stronger demand zone in the 6,655 to 6,665 range. If we manage to break above the supply cap at 6,795, the next measured extension target is around 6,840, but this should be treated as a stretch unless we see solid acceptance above 6,795. Key Zones to Watch: Resistance: - 6,765–6,795 (this is the current cap) - Extension potential at 6,840, provided we see firm acceptance above 6,795. Support: - Look for the first decision point around 6,725–6,735, which reflects overnight strength. - 6,701–6,705 is a key equilibrium area. - The shelf for the first buyable dip lies at 6,685–6,690. - Further support is found in the demand pocket at 6,655–6,665. - If we encounter a deeper risk-off scenario, watch for extensions down to 6,604, 6,564, and 6,520, but only if we see a decisive failure in the rebound. Setups: Setup 1 — Rejection Short at 6,765–6,795 (A++) Entry: 6,788–6,793 after a 5m re-close back below 6,795 and a 1m lower-high Stop (SL): 6,804.50 (above rejection wick/upper edge) TP1: 6,729–6,733 TP2: 6,701–6,705 TP3: 6,686–6,690 Setup 2 — Acceptance Long above 6,795 (A++) Entry: 6,796–6,799 on first pullback that holds after decisive 15m acceptance over 6,795 Stop (SL): 6,785.00 (back inside the band) TP1: 6,822–6,828 TP2: 6,840 stretch TP3: 6,852–6,855 if squeeze persists Setup 3 — Quick-Reclaim Long at 6,701 (A+ Bounce) Entry: 6,702–6,705 only if 6,701 briefly slips and then a 5m candle re-closes back above it Stop (SL): 6,694.50 TP1: 6,729–6,733 TP2: 6,765–6,775 TP3: 6,788–6,793 Setup 4 — Shelf Long at 6,685–6,690 (A Bounce) Entry: 6,686–6,689 with a 1m higher-low and 5m hold Stop (SL): 6,678.00 TP1: 6,701–6,705 TP2: 6,729–6,733 TP3: 6,765–6,775 Setup 5 — Demand-Pocket Long at 6,655–6,665 (A Bounce) Entry: 6,657–6,663 on stabilization and 1m higher-low Stop (SL): 6,647.00 TP1: 6,686–6,690 TP2: 6,701–6,705 TP3: 6,729–6,733 Setup 6 — Breakdown Short if 6,701 Turns to Resistance (A+) Entry: 6,698–6,701 after a 5m close below 6,701 and a retest that fails Stop (SL): 6,707.50 TP1: 6,686–6,690 TP2: 6,665–6,660 TP3: 6,604–6,564 only if momentum stays risk-off Management (apply to all) take the setup only if TP1 ≥ 2.0R using the stated SL. At TP1 close 70% and set the 30% runner to break-even; runner attempts TP2→TP3 if structure supports it. Time-stop 45–60 minutes if neither TP1 nor SL is hit. Primary execution windows: NY AM 09:30–11:00 ET and NY PM 13:30–16:00 ET.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
EUR/AUD Bulls Fighting Back — Retail 76% Short!🔹 COT (Commitment of Traders) Euro (EUR): Non-commercial longs: 252,472 (−789) Non-commercial shorts: 138,127 (+2,625) → Institutional traders have trimmed long positions and increased shorts, signaling a softening bullish bias on the euro. Australian Dollar (AUD): Non-commercial longs: 41,994 (+1,718) Non-commercial shorts: 101,584 (+10,148) → Sharp increase in short exposure versus longs, reflecting renewed bearish pressure on AUD. 📊 Combined Interpretation: While the euro shows mild weakness, the Australian dollar remains under stronger institutional selling pressure. The result is a net bullish bias on EUR/AUD, though upside momentum may moderate as euro positioning cools. 🔹 FX Sentiment (Retail Positioning) 76% short / 24% long 📌 Retail traders are heavily short, providing a contrarian bullish signal for EUR/AUD. This skew supports the institutional view, hinting that short covering could drive the next bullish leg. 🔹 Seasonality EUR: October tends to be mildly negative on a 10–20 year horizon (−0.20% to −0.60%), but neutralizing into November. AUD: October is historically flat to slightly positive, though broader Q4 data favors euro recovery over commodity currencies. 📌 Seasonal Bias: Neutral-to-bullish EUR/AUD outlook — seasonality doesn’t contradict the structural bullish setup but suggests limited upside speed. 🔹 Price Action EUR/AUD remains within a broad consolidation range, oscillating between 1.7650–1.7950. The pair has recently bounced strongly from the 1.7600–1.7650 demand zone, aligning with a clean RSI rebound from oversold conditions. Currently trading near 1.7900, approaching the supply area 1.7950–1.8000, which may act as short-term resistance before any continuation move. 🎯 Scenario 1 (Preferred): Continuation higher toward 1.8000, followed by a correction back toward 1.7700 before resuming the broader bullish trend. ❌ Invalidation: Daily close below 1.7650 would invalidate the bullish bias and re-open 1.7500.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
7
EUR/USD Breakdown Just Starting? Institutions Loading USD Longs🔹 COT (Commitment of Traders) Euro (EUR): Non-commercial longs: 252,472 (−789) Non-commercial shorts: 138,127 (+2,625) → Hedge funds slightly trimmed their long exposure while adding to shorts, signaling a loss of bullish momentum on the euro. US Dollar Index (DXY): Non-commercial longs: 14,032 (+1,541) Non-commercial shorts: 24,376 (−1,009) → Positioning shows a clear strengthening of the dollar, as speculators close shorts and increase longs. 📊 Interpretation: Institutional flow remains decisively in favor of the USD, reflecting renewed dollar strength and moderate euro weakness — keeping a bearish bias on EUR/USD in the short term. 🔹 FX Sentiment 50% long / 50% short 📌 The market is perfectly balanced, showing no contrarian extremes at the moment. However, this neutral sentiment after weeks of long dominance indicates a shift in retail perception, likely preceding a consolidation phase before another bearish leg. 🔹 Seasonality Based on Market Bulls historical data for EUR/USD: October has historically been negative, with average declines between −0.20% and −0.60% across 10–20 year datasets. Seasonality improves from November onward, but October remains a period of weakness for the euro. 📌 Conclusion: The seasonal context is bearish, aligning with institutional positioning and current price structure. 🔹 Price Action EUR/USD has broken the ascending trendline from August and is now consolidating below the 1.1750–1.1800 supply zone, strongly rejected earlier this month. The pair trades inside a descending channel, with key support at 1.1550–1.1500 and resistance near 1.1720–1.1750. The RSI is neutral but showing bearish divergence, hinting at a possible short-term pullback before the next leg lower. 🎯 Base scenario: a corrective bounce toward 1.1700–1.1750, followed by renewed downside pressure targeting 1.1450, with potential extension to 1.1380. ❌ Invalidation: Daily close above 1.1780.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
4
MSTR: Time to Short? Death Cross + Triangle Break Analysis🐻 MSTR "STRATEGY INC." - The Bear's Playground | Thief's Multi-Layer Setup 💰 📊 MARKET SNAPSHOT Asset: NASDAQ:MSTR (Strategy Inc. - formerly MicroStrategy) Current Price: ~$291.23 (Oct 17, 2025) Setup Type: Swing/Day Trade - Bearish Confirmation Strategy Style: "Thief Method" - Layered Limit Orders 🎯 🔍 THE SETUP - Why This Bearish Play Makes Sense Ladies and Gentlemen, welcome to the Thief's playbook! 👋 MSTR just gave us a beautiful bearish signal with a triangular moving average breakdown. Here's what the charts are screaming: 🎯 The "Thief" Entry Strategy - Layered Limit Orders This isn't your typical "buy now" play. We're sneaking in like a thief in the night with MULTIPLE SELL LIMIT LAYERS: Entry Zones (Layer Your Shorts): Layer 1: $310 (First resistance retest) Layer 2: $300 (Psychological level) Layer 3: $290 (Current consolidation zone) 💡 Pro Tip: Scale into your position! You can add MORE layers based on your risk tolerance (e.g., $305, $295, $285). The "Thief Method" is all about spreading your entries to catch the perfect price zones. 🛑 RISK MANAGEMENT - The Thief's Insurance Policy Stop Loss: $320 🚨 (This is the Thief's emergency exit - if price breaks above this, the bears lost control) ⚠️ IMPORTANT NOTE: Dear Thief OG's (Original Gangsters), this is MY stop loss level based on MY analysis. You should set YOUR OWN stop loss based on YOUR risk tolerance. Don't copy blindly - manage YOUR money, take YOUR profits (or losses) at YOUR own risk! This is YOUR trade, not mine. 💯 🎯 PROFIT TARGET - Where the Money's Hiding Primary Target: $250 🎉 Why $250? Strong historical support level Oversold bounce zone (RSI typically rebounds here) TRAP ALERT: Institutional buyers often accumulate at this level - be ready to ESCAPE with your profits before the bulls wake up! 🐂💤 ⚠️ TAKE PROFIT NOTE: Dear Thief OG's, $250 is MY target based on MY analysis. You can (and should) set YOUR own targets. If you're in profit at $270, $260, or even $280 - TAKE THE MONEY AND RUN! 💰 No shame in banking profits early. Remember: pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered. This is YOUR trade, YOUR risk, YOUR decision! 🔗 RELATED ASSETS TO WATCH - The Correlation Game MSTR doesn't trade in a vacuum! Keep your eyes on these correlated assets: 📈 Primary Correlation: CRYPTOCAP:BTC (Bitcoin): ~$108,625 (Oct 17, 2025) - MSTR holds 640,000+ BTC (3%+ of total supply!) Correlation Strength: 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 ULTRA HIGH Why It Matters: MSTR is essentially a leveraged Bitcoin play. When BTC sneezes, MSTR catches a cold. Bitcoin's current bearish pressure directly impacts MSTR's valuation. 🔄 Secondary Watchlist: NASDAQ:COIN (Coinbase): Crypto exchange - sentiment indicator NASDAQ:RIOT (Riot Platforms): Bitcoin mining stock NASDAQ:MARA (Marathon Digital): Another BTC-related equity NASDAQ:CLSK (CleanSpark): Bitcoin mining operations Key Point: If Bitcoin breaks below $105K support, expect MSTR to accelerate downward. Conversely, if BTC rallies back above $115K, this bearish setup could invalidate. Watch Bitcoin like a hawk! 🦅 📊 THE BIGGER PICTURE - Why MSTR Is Vulnerable Right Now Bitcoin Pressure: BTC down -2.19% today, testing critical support levels Institutional Caution: Recent S&P 500 rejection (not included in index) = credibility questions Valuation Concerns: Trading at significant premium to NAV (Net Asset Value) Technical Breakdown: Multiple MA crosses + trend reversal signals Macro Headwinds: Risk-off sentiment in crypto markets (3-day consecutive decline) 🎓 THE THIEF'S WISDOM - Final Thoughts This setup combines: ✅ Technical confirmation (MA breakout) ✅ Layered entry strategy (better average price) ✅ Clear risk management (defined stop loss) ✅ Realistic profit targets (strong support zone) ✅ Correlated asset monitoring (BTC relationship) Remember: The market doesn't care about your opinion. Respect the charts, manage your risk, and don't get greedy. The "Thief Method" is about stealing profits intelligently, not gambling recklessly! 🎰❌ 💬 TRADE SMART, NOT HARD! This is a BEARISH SETUP with defined entries, exits, and risk parameters. Whether you're swing trading or day trading, the key is DISCIPLINE. Stick to your plan, don't chase, and protect your capital. Questions? Thoughts? Drop them below! 👇 Let's build a community of smart traders who help each other win! 🤝 ✨ If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated — it helps me share more setups with the community! #MSTR #Bitcoin #BTC #TradingView #SwingTrading #DayTrading #BearishSetup #ShortSetup #CryptoStocks #TechnicalAnalysis #MovingAverages #LayeredEntry #RiskManagement #ProfitTarget #StrategyInc #MicroStrategy #ThiefMethod #TradingStrategy #StockMarket #NASDAQ
NASDAQ:MSTRShort
by The-Thief
1
BTCUSD: Short opportunities on technical retrace BITSTAMP:BTCUSD Analysis – October 17, 2025 Yesterday’s short setup (BB) was triggered and hit target as planned. The main trend remains bearish, confirming that sellers are still in control. For today, the focus remains on looking for short opportunities following the current downtrend. Expecting a technical pullback toward the 40%–60% retracement zone of the previous bearish leg. As price approaches this area and retests the EMA, wait for a clear confirmation signal before entering. If price fails to follow the setup, stay patient and wait for more confirmation to ensure a safe and disciplined trade. Main Plan: Keep a bearish bias — look for shorts near the 40–60% retracement zone once confirmation appears. Daniel Miller @ ZuperView
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by ZuperView
2
MSTR: Trend ContinuesSince our last update, MSTR extended its sell-off. We still expect the low of this wave to form above the support level at $153.49. Once wave 2 is complete, we anticipate a strong wave 3 rally pushing above resistance at $674.18. Our alternative scenario assumes a different wave count: in this case, price may currently be developing the magenta wave alt. to the upside (probability: 30%). This count would be confirmed by a direct move above resistance at $430.50.
NASDAQ:MSTRShort
by MarketIntel
The Control TrapNOTE – This is a post on mindset and emotion. It is not a trade idea or strategy designed to make you money. My intention is to help you preserve your capital, focus, and composure so you can trade your own system with clarity and confidence. You’ve spent months - maybe years designing your system. You know its logic. You’ve backtested the data. You trust the probabilities. And yet… mid-trade, something shifts. The candles stall. The pullback looks deeper than usual. You feel the muscles in your stomach tighten. Your hand hovers over the mouse. Maybe I’ll just move the stop a bit tighter. Maybe I’ll exit early, just this once. Maybe I’ll skip this signal - it doesn’t look right today. It feels like precision. Like prudence. Like control. But look closer. Every time you interfere, you reinforce the belief that you can’t trust yourself. And that belief quietly eats away at your confidence - trade by trade, decision by decision. What’s really happening: When you second-guess your own rules, it’s rarely about the system. It’s about safety. Your mind is trying to avoid the discomfort of uncertainty - that raw, restless sensation that comes with surrendering control to probabilities. Your body feels it first. The quickened pulse. The micro-tension in your shoulders. The eyes darting to every tick, searching for reassurance. You’re not refining your edge - you’re soothing anxiety. The irony is that this constant adjustment creates the very instability you’re trying to avoid. The more you step in, the more you teach your brain that it can’t be trusted to hold steady. And so the cycle repeats - tighter control, lower trust, higher stress. How to shift it: Next time you feel the urge to tweak or touch the trade - pause. Notice the emotion under the surface. Is it fear? Doubt? A need to be right? Let yourself feel that pull without acting on it. Remind yourself: “I built this system for a reason. My job now is to execute, not interfere.” Try sitting through one trade, fully hands-off. Let the outcome be what it is. And observe what happens inside you, not just on the chart. That awareness is where emotional control begins. Trading well isn’t just about the quality of your system It’s about the quality of your state while running it. If this article resonated, check out the post I’d written on System Hopping. Link below:
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by soda8888
2
Strategy Inc. (NASDAQ: MSTR) - Financial ReportDate: October 16, 2025 Current Market Context: As of October 16, 2025, Bitcoin trades at approximately $111,469 USD, reflecting a volatile yet upward trajectory influenced by institutional adoption and macroeconomic factors. Strategy Inc., formerly MicroStrategy, holds 640,031 BTC, valued at $71.3 billion USD as of today. The company's market capitalization stands at $84.15 billion USD, representing an 18% premium over its Bitcoin reserve value. This premium accounts for operational assets, including fixed costs, employee salaries, and intellectual property, while underscoring the market's perception of MSTR as a leveraged Bitcoin proxy. Notably, the company's substantial BTC holdings enable potential market influence through strategies involving futures and options, allowing for amplified exposure to cryptocurrency volatility. 1. Company Overview Strategy Inc. (MSTR) is a leading provider of AI-powered enterprise analytics software and services, operating in the business intelligence (BI) and software sector. Founded in 1989 by Michael J. Saylor and Sanju Bansal in Wilmington, Delaware, the company initially focused on data mining and BI tools inspired by systems-dynamics theory from their MIT studies. It secured its first major client, McDonald's, with a $10 million contract in 1992, driving 100% annual revenue growth from 1990 to 1996. By 1994, the firm relocated to Tysons Corner, Virginia, expanding to 50 employees. The company went public in 1998 and evolved into a pioneer in BI platforms, offering products like MicroStrategy ONE for non-technical insights and HyperIntelligence for contextual overlays. In August 2020, under Saylor's leadership, Strategy adopted Bitcoin as its primary treasury reserve asset, purchasing 21,454 BTC for $250 million—a move that transformed it into the world's largest corporate Bitcoin holder. This pivot positioned MSTR as a "Bitcoin spot leveraged ETF" proxy, blending software revenue with cryptocurrency exposure. In February 2025, it rebranded from MicroStrategy to Strategy Inc. to emphasize its dual focus on analytics and Bitcoin innovation. Today, it serves industries including finance, healthcare, retail, and government, with a global presence across North America, EMEA, LATAM, and APAC. Strategic Objectives and Corporate Vision Strategy's vision is to empower organizations with AI-driven analytics while leveraging Bitcoin as a superior store of value against inflation and currency devaluation. Core objectives include: - Expanding market share in BI through innovative technologies like cloud-native platforms and partnerships. - Executing the "21/21 Plan": Raising $21 billion in equity and $21 billion in fixed-income instruments over three years to acquire more BTC, enhancing treasury value. - Balancing software growth (e.g., via Strategy Mosaic for data governance) with Bitcoin strategy for long-term value creation. Saylor, the Executive Chairman, focuses on Bitcoin acquisitions, while CEO Phong Le oversees operations. The company holds 340 patents, emphasizing innovation in BI and blockchain applications. 2. Financial Analysis Consolidated Balance Sheet: Last Three Years Strategy's financials reflect modest BI revenue growth overshadowed by Bitcoin impairments and gains. Data is in USD millions, sourced from annual reports. | Metric | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | |--------------------|---------|---------|---------| | Total Revenue | 463.0 | 496.0 | 496.0 | | Cost of Revenue | 138.9 | 148.0 | 152.0 | | Gross Profit | 324.1 | 348.0 | 344.0 | | Operating Expenses | -6,660 | 450.0 | 500.0 | | Operating Income | 6,660 | -102.0 | -156.0 | | Net Income | 4,790 | -670.8 | -1,470 | | Gross Margin (%) | 70.1 | 70.2 | 69.4 | | Net Margin (%) | 1,036.6 | -135.3 | -296.4 | Volatility stems from Bitcoin fair-value adjustments: 2024 gains drove net income surge, while prior years saw impairments. Revenue declined 6.6% YoY in 2024 due to subscription shifts, but gross margins remain robust at ~70%. Cash Flow Analysis Cash flows highlight Bitcoin-driven investing outflows, offset by financing inflows. Data in USD millions. | Category | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | |-------------------------|-------- |---------|---------| | Operating Cash Flow | 50.1 | 65.0 | 45.0 | | Investing Cash Flow | -35,630 | -2,100 | -500.0 | | Financing Cash Flow | 35,500 | 2,050 | 450.0 | | Net Change in Cash | -80 | 15.0 | -5.0 | | Free Cash Flow Growth (%) | -1,069 | N/A | N/A | Operating cash flow remains positive but modest (~$50M in 2024), supporting software operations. Investing activities reflect massive BTC purchases ($35.6B in 2024 via debt/equity raises), while financing provides liquidity through convertible notes and ATM offerings. This structure amplifies BTC exposure but increases dilution risk. Key Performance Indicators Financial ratios reveal efficiency in equity utilization but asset strain from BTC leverage. | Ratio | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | Interpretation | |--------------- --|----------|----------|--------|----------------| | ROE (%) | 18.01 | -25.0 | -40.0 | Strong recovery via BTC gains; measures profitability per equity dollar. | | ROA (%) | 12.75 | -5.0 | -8.0 | Improved asset efficiency; net income/total assets. | | ROI (%) | 12.75 | -4.5 | -7.5 | Aligns with ROA; return on invested capital in BTC/software. | | Debt/Equity | 0.16 | 0.25 | 0.30 | Low leverage; supports BTC strategy without excessive risk. | | Interest Coverage | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.8 | Adequate coverage post-2024 gains; EBIT/interest expense. | ROE surged in 2024 due to unrealized BTC appreciation, calculated as Net Income / Average Shareholders' Equity. ROA = Net Income / Total Assets, highlighting BTC's role in boosting returns despite flat software assets. Debt Analysis Total debt stands at $8.21 billion (2024), primarily convertible notes for BTC buys. Debt/Equity ratio of 0.16 indicates conservative leverage, with current ratio at 0.68 signaling short-term liquidity pressure from BTC focus. Interest coverage improved to 5.2x in 2024, mitigating default risk amid rising rates. Strategies include ATM equity sales to repay debt. 3. Market Analysis Stock Performance: Last 12 Months MSTR delivered 43.55% returns over the past 12 months (October 2024–October 2025), far outpacing benchmarks. 52-week high: $473.83 (November 2024); low: $112.00 (October 2024). Current price: ~$296.76, with YTD loss of -1.12%. Volatility and Benchmark Comparison Annualized volatility: 114.6% (MSTR) vs. 20.5% (NASDAQ) and 15.2% (S&P 500), driven by BTC correlation (beta ~3.0 to BTC). MSTR outperformed S&P 500 (+71% vs. +16%) and NASDAQ over 12 months, but with 7x the volatility. Sharpe ratio: 1.82 (MSTR) vs. 0.92 (S&P 500), indicating superior risk-adjusted returns. Competitors and Market Position In Business Intelligence software, Strategy holds ~1.19% market share, trailing Microsoft Power BI (19.85%) and Tableau (16.11%). Key competitors: Tableau (Salesforce), Qlik, IBM Cognos, Oracle BI, and Power BI. Strengths include scalability and mobile BI; weaknesses are higher complexity vs. user-friendly rivals. As a BTC holder, it leads corporates (e.g., vs. Tesla's ~11,000 BTC), positioning MSTR as a unique hybrid: BI challenger with crypto dominance (~3% of BTC supply). 4. Future Outlook Growth Forecasts: 2025–2028 Analysts project 5–10% annual BI revenue growth to $550M by 2028, driven by AI integrations. BTC holdings could reach 1M+ via 21/21 Plan, implying 20–50% stock upside if BTC hits $150K (base case: $400–$600/share by 2028). EPS growth: 1557% in 2025, stabilizing at 15% CAGR. Overall revenue: $500M–$600M by 2028, with net income tied to BTC (projected $10B+ if holdings appreciate 30% annually). Expansion Plans, Acquisitions, and Initiatives - 21/21 Plan: $42B raise for BTC buys; recent $2B preferred stock offering targets Q1 2026. - Acquisitions: Potential in blockchain/BI (e.g., mobile analytics firms); no major 2025 deals announced. - Initiatives: Launch of Bitcoin-linked securities; expansion into APAC BI markets; AI enhancements like Strategy One for predictive analytics. Potential Risks and Mitigation - Risks: BTC volatility (80% drawdown potential); dilution from equity raises; regulatory scrutiny on crypto holdings; BI competition eroding 1–2% share annually. - Mitigation: Diversified revenue (BTC as 90% value driver but software as stabilizer); debt refinancing via ATM sales; hedging via futures/options with its BTC hoard for market influence. Scenario analysis: Base (BTC +20%/yr) yields 25% IRR; bear (BTC -30%) limits downside to 15% via operational cash. 5. Conclusion Overall Assessment and Investment Potential Strategy Inc. exemplifies a high-conviction, transformative play: a BI stalwart amplified by Bitcoin's asymmetric upside. With $84.15B market cap trading at an 18% premium to its $71.3B BTC holdings—factoring in ~$500M annual fixed costs, salaries for 1,530 employees, and BI IP—the firm offers leveraged exposure without direct crypto custody risks. Historical 1,620% returns since 2020 validate Saylor's vision, outperforming S&P 500 by 22x. Potential is strong for 2025–2028 if BTC adoption accelerates, with ROE/ROA signaling efficient capital deployment. Investor Recommendations Buy/Hold for Growth-Oriented Portfolios: Target $400–$500 by end-2026 (20–50% upside) on BTC momentum; allocate 5–10% for high-risk tolerance. Strengths: BTC treasury (market influence via derivatives); resilient 70% margins; innovation (340 patents). Weaknesses: Revenue stagnation (-3.2% CAGR); volatility (114% vs. 20% benchmarks); dilution risk (74% YTD BTC yield via shares). Conservative investors: Monitor Q4 2025 earnings (Oct 30) for BTC yield updates; diversify with S&P 500 ETFs. This is not financial advice—consult professionals.
NASDAQ:MSTRLong
by dPEngineering
XAUUSD NEXT POSSIBLE MOVE Gold is currently trading near a strong demand zone, an area where buyers have previously shown clear dominance. After a corrective move, price action is now showing signs of stabilization and accumulation, suggesting that a bullish reversal could be forming. If the market continues to respect this zone and prints a bullish candle formation (such as a higher low, bullish engulfing, or rejection wick), it would confirm that buyers are regaining control. Momentum indicators also show signs of strength building on the buy side, indicating that selling pressure is fading and the market may be preparing for an upside move. As long as Gold maintains its structure above the support zone, the bias remains bullish. Traders should wait for a clear confirmation candle or structure break before entering to ensure alignment with market momentum.
TVC:GOLDLong
by GOLDPAIRUPDATE1
BTCUSD: Waiting for a range breakBITSTAMP:BTCUSD is currently trading within a tight accumulation range between 112,004 and 113,524. Today’s plan: Wait for price to consolidate near the upper boundary of the range while the EMA compresses close to price action. Once a clear range break (RB) to the upside occurs, enter a market buy. If the price breaks early without enough consolidation, wait for a pullback to retest the breakout level and look for a buy setup after the range break (ARB). Profit targets and stop loss levels should be chosen according to individual risk management preferences. Daniel Miller @ ZuperView
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by ZuperView
BTCUSD: Failing to recover, short setup near EMABTC analysis – october 14, 2025 At the moment, BITSTAMP:BTCUSD has failed to sustain its recovery and is pulling back toward the 111,192 USD area. The overall trend remains bearish, as price is now trading below the EMA, indicating that sellers still have control over the market. Trading plan for today: Priority: look for short (sell) opportunities in line with the main trend. Wait for a pullback as price retests the EMA zone. Once price reaches that area, watch for one of the following price action setups: DD (Double Doji) SB (Second Break) → When either setup appears, consider a market entry. Trade management: Stop loss: above the nearest swing high of the pullback. Take profit: targeting a 2R – 3R reward-to-risk ratio, depending on price behavior. Summary: BITSTAMP:BTCUSD remains in a clear downtrend. Any short-term bounce is seen as an opportunity to sell with the trend. Patience is key wait for a clean setup around the EMA zone to secure a good entry and minimize risk. Daniel Miller @ ZuperView
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by ZuperView