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EURAUD Is Trapped Below Major ResistanceAfter several weeks of recovery, EURAUD has finally reached a critical decision point. From a technical perspective, price has rallied directly into a confluence area composed of a Daily Fair Value Gap, a descending trendline that has been respected since March, and a higher timeframe supply zone. These are exactly the areas where I want to see institutional participation if the broader bearish trend is going to continue. Looking at the Commitment of Traders data, the picture becomes even more interesting. The Euro remains slightly net-long among non-commercial traders, but recent positioning changes reveal a loss of bullish conviction. Large speculators reduced long exposure while simultaneously increasing short positions. This shift suggests that institutional traders are becoming more cautious on further Euro appreciation. On the Australian Dollar side, speculative positioning remains decisively bullish. Although some profit-taking has appeared over the latest reporting period, the overall structure still favors AUD strength relative to EUR. Retail sentiment offers little support for a bullish continuation. The majority of retail traders remain positioned on the long side, with many positions accumulated at significantly higher levels. Historically, this type of positioning tends to provide fuel for further downside rather than sustained rallies. Seasonality remains broadly neutral. Both EUR and AUD historically perform relatively well during June, limiting any significant directional advantage from seasonal flows alone. As long as EURAUD remains below the 1.6510 resistance area, I continue to view the current rebound as a corrective move within a larger bearish trend. A rejection from current levels could open the door toward the 1.6250 demand zone, followed by a potential extension toward 1.6100 and eventually 1.6000.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
EUR/USD The Next Move Could Define the Entire SummerAfter reviewing the latest price action, COT data, sentiment positioning and seasonal tendencies, I believe EUR/USD is approaching one of the most important decision points of the year. From a technical perspective, the broader trend remains bullish. The pair is still trading within a long-term ascending channel that has guided price action since the lows near 1.10. However, after reaching the upper boundary of the channel around 1.18-1.19, buyers lost momentum and the market entered a corrective phase. Looking at the Commitment of Traders report, the picture becomes even more interesting. Speculative traders remain net long Euro futures, confirming that institutional positioning still favors EUR strength over the longer term. Nevertheless, during the latest reporting period, long exposure was reduced while short exposure increased significantly. This suggests that large participants are locking in profits after the strong rally seen during the first half of the year rather than aggressively building new bullish positions. On the other side of the equation, the Dollar Index futures report shows a modest recovery in speculative positioning. The market is no longer as aggressively bearish on the USD as it was a few weeks ago, which helps explain the recent weakness in EUR/USD. Retail sentiment adds another layer to the analysis. Current positioning shows approximately 54% of traders holding long positions. While this is not an extreme reading, retail traders remain slightly biased to the upside. From a contrarian perspective, this does not provide immediate support for a bullish continuation and leaves room for further downside pressure. Historically, June has been a positive month for EUR/USD across most long-term datasets. However, when focusing on the most recent years, performance tends to weaken during the second half of the month. Putting all these elements together, my preferred scenario remains a continuation of the correction toward the 1.1450 area and potentially 1.1400 if sellers manage to break the current demand zone. As long as EUR/USD remains above the major weekly support area between 1.1380 and 1.1450, I continue to view the current decline as a corrective pullback within a larger bullish trend.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
3
Zoom: Institutional FootprintHeavy aggressive buying hit the 90 puts (june 9) today, with volume far above OI and multiple 50+ contract blocks lifting the ask. The flow began after the morning flush and continued while the underlying rebounded, with IV holding steady around 47.75%. This behavior is consistent with institutional hedging, not a directional bearish bet. The chart structure supports this view, showing consolidation, defended support, and a reversal during the put accumulation.
NASDAQ:ZM
by Wiiso
BTC Prop Strategy — Live Results on $100K Funded Account I've been running an automated BTC trend strategy on a $100K funded account — 24/7 via TradingView alerts. ─── LIVE RESULTS ─── Balance: $101,619 Profit: +$1,619 Daily loss: $0 Trading days: 13 Max drawdown used: 0% ─── STRATEGY OVERVIEW ─── Timeframe: 30-minute chart (BTCUSD Bitstamp) HTF filter: Daily EMA280 — trend direction only ADX filter: no trades in flat/sideways market Risk: 0.5% per trade, auto position sizing RR Ratio: 2.5 ─── BACKTEST RESULTS ─── +29.34% (Dec 2024 — Jun 2026) Max drawdown: 4.27% Win rate: 38.62% (73/189 trades) Profit factor: 1.488 ─── RISK CONTROLS ─── Daily loss limit: 1.5% Max total drawdown: 8% Emergency stop: 6.5% Pause after 2 consecutive losses
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by MykSher
Stop-Loss Blueprint: How to Quit Getting Wicked Out Early🔵 Stop-Loss Blueprint: How to Quit Getting Wicked Out Early Difficulty: 🐳🐳🐋🐋🐋 (Beginner-Friendly) It is the most frustrating feeling in trading: you entry a trade, price moves directly to your stop-loss, "wicks" you out by a single pip, and then immediately runs toward your take-profit target. In this blueprint, you will learn how to hide your stops behind institutional walls so you can stay in the move. 🔵 THE RETAIL MISTAKE: THE "RANDOM NUMBER" STOP Most beginners place their stop-losses based on a random number of pips (e.g., "I always use a 10-pip stop") or right at an obvious support line. The problem? The interbank algorithms are designed to hunt these exact areas to collect liquidity before expanding. If your stop-loss is resting right where everyone else's is, it becomes a target. The Institutional Rule: Your stop-loss should never be placed where you hope price won't go. It must be placed where the setup is completely invalidated . 🔵 HIDING BEHIND CONFLUENCE WALLS Think of your stop-loss like a shield. You don't want to leave it out in the open; you want to hide it behind solid walls. When analyzing market structure, you have three major structural walls to protect your trade: Wall 1: The Manipulation Wick (The Floor): Look at the horizontal white arrow at the bottom left. This wick hunted the weak retail stops. Your ultimate structural invalidation point lives safely below the low of this wick. Wall 2: The Order Block Anchor (The Blue Box): The blue shaded rectangle highlights the institutional order block candle at the absolute bottom. The opening price of this block acts as the heavy defensive floor. Wall 3: The Equilibrium Level (0.5): Look at the Fibonacci grid on the right. The 0.5 level (66,462.45) marks the middle of the pullback range. Notice how price pulls back through equilibrium to mitigate the order block below it before violently exploding into profit. Professional Takeaway: When multiple walls overlap, you have a high-confluence zone. You can place a tight, highly secure stop-loss just underneath and catch massive 4+ Risk-to-Reward moves easily. 🔵 HOW TO PLACE YOUR STOP LIKE A PRO 1. The "Protected Low" Strategy (Long Setups) When buying after a Market Structure Shift (MSS) or CISD, do not place your stop right at the entry trigger candle. Place it 2–3 pips below the swing low that swept the liquidity. If price returns to break that low, it means the manipulation wasn't a fakeout—it means the trend is actually broken. Your setup is dead, and you want to be out. 2. The "Breaker" Shield If you are entering on a Breaker Block or a mitigation play, hide your stop-loss just behind the invalidation level of that specific block. If the algorithm respects the zone, price should not cross into the invalidation area. 🔵 THE RISK-TO-REWARD (R:R) SOLUTION Traders often use tight, dangerous stops because they want a huge Risk-to-Reward ratio (like 1:10). But a 1:10 trade is useless if you get stopped out 90% of the time. The Fix: Give your trade room to breathe. A wider, structurally safe stop-loss combined with a target at a major Liquidity Void will give you a higher win rate and a cleaner, stress-free execution. 🔵 EXAMPLE TRADING CHECKLIST The "Safe Shield" Framework Identify your entry trigger (FVG, CISD, or Order Block). Locate the nearest institutional manipulation wick or structural anchor. Place the stop-loss 2–5 pips past that structural anchor. Ensure the distance to your Take Profit target provides at least a 1:2 or 1:3 R:R. If the R:R is too low, skip the trade and wait for a deeper discount entry. 🔵 CONCLUSION Stop letting the algorithm use your account as fuel. By placing your stop-loss behind valid structural invalidation levels instead of random pip counts, you transform your stop from an easy target into a highly protected fortress. Do you use a fixed pip count for your stops, or do you hide them behind structural wicks? Let us know your approach below!
BINANCE:BTCUSDTEducation
by BigBeluga
1
Gold Testing Demand Zone as Bears Remain in ControlThe market structure remains bearish, but price has reached a significant demand area where buyers may attempt to regain control. A short-term bounce is possible if support holds. Traders should remain patient and wait for confirmation rather than anticipating a reversal too early. Analysis: Bearish trend remains intact Support area is attracting buying interest Resistance remains strong around 4450 Trendline continues to pressure bullish attempts Confirmation is key before entering positions Not Financial Advice
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by ShaaanFx
2
A Broken Low Doesn't Always Mean a Bear Trend!One of the fastest ways to get trapped in the market is to assume: "The low broke, therefore the trend is bearish." Not necessarily. What most traders see 👀 Price breaks below a previous low. Instantly they think: "Trend change." So they panic. Or worse... They short the market. What smart traders look for 🧠 A trend is not defined by one broken low. A trend is defined by a sequence. In an uptrend, buyers can temporarily lose one battle without losing the war. That's why you'll often see: • a support break • a liquidity sweep • a stop hunt below the lows And then... Price rallies to new highs. Look at this example 📊 Both highlighted areas broke below the previous low. Many traders interpreted them as bearish signals. Yet shortly afterward, buyers stepped back in and the uptrend continued. The low was broken. The trend wasn't. Instead of asking: "Did the low break?" Ask: "Did the market actually shift from higher highs and higher lows to lower highs and lower lows?" That's a much more important question. How many times have you exited a good trade... Just because one low got broken? ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk properly. 📚 Stick to your trading plan regarding entries, risk, and management. Good luck! 🍀 All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Richard Nasr
OKX:ETHUSDTEducation
by TheSignalyst
6
Gold Is Trapped... But I Believe a Bigger Move Lower Is ComingGold (XAUUSD) From a technical perspective, Gold has broken its major ascending trendline and is currently trading inside a descending corrective channel. Price is sitting within a significant weekly demand zone between 4,300 and 4,600, which explains the recent stabilization. However, the broader structure still points toward weakness unless buyers can reclaim the upper supply area. The most important level on my chart remains the unfilled weekly Fair Value Gap around 4,130–4,180. Markets have a tendency to revisit these inefficiencies, especially when supported by bearish order flow and weak seasonal patterns. Looking at the latest COT report, Non-Commercial traders still maintain a strong net-long exposure. However, Open Interest declined significantly, suggesting profit-taking rather than fresh institutional accumulation. This tells me that while the long-term trend remains constructive, short-term upside momentum is fading. Retail positioning adds another layer to the analysis. Currently, around 65% of traders are holding long positions. From a contrarian perspective, this often supports the continuation of downside pressure as liquidity remains concentrated below current prices. Seasonality also favors the bears. Historically, June has been one of the weakest months for Gold, with negative average performance across most historical datasets. My preferred scenario is a corrective bounce toward the 4,450–4,550 area, followed by renewed selling pressure targeting the weekly Fair Value Gap around 4,200. Key Levels: • Resistance: 4,600 – 4,800 – 5,000 • Support: 4,300 – 4,200 – 4,000
COMEX:GC1!Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
6
Bullish potential detected for MSTREntry conditions: (i) lower share price for NASDAQ:MSTR along with swing up of indicators such as DMI and swing down in RSI, and (ii) observe market reaction around the yearly VWAP on the daily chart (currently $148.66). Depending on risk tolerance, the stop loss for the trade would be: (i) above the quarterly VWAP (currently $161.28), or (ii) above the declining 150 day MA (currently $166.66), or (iii) above the high of the gap-down day of 18th May 2026 (i.e.: $169.18).
NASDAQ:MSTRShort
by Ivory_Wolf
EURNZD Analysis: Smart Money vs Retail TradersEURNZD Analysis From a Commitment of Traders perspective, the Euro remains supported by institutional positioning. Although speculators slightly reduced their long exposure during the latest reporting period, the overall positioning remains net long, confirming that the broader bullish structure on EUR has not changed. On the other side, the New Zealand Dollar continues to be one of the weakest currencies in the futures market. Non-commercial traders remain heavily net short NZD, and the latest report shows additional selling pressure entering the market. This divergence between EUR strength and NZD weakness creates a favorable macro backdrop for EURNZD upside. Seasonality also adds another layer of confluence. June tends to be a positive month for both currencies, but historical data shows that EUR has generally outperformed NZD during this period. While seasonality alone is never enough to justify a trade, it supports the broader bullish narrative. The most interesting piece of information comes from retail sentiment. Currently, around 84% of retail traders are positioned short EURNZD. Historically, when positioning becomes this one-sided, the market often moves against the crowd. A large concentration of short positions means liquidity is sitting above current price levels, creating the potential for a meaningful short squeeze if buyers regain control. From a technical perspective, price recently reacted from a significant weekly demand zone around 1.9440–1.9500. After weeks of selling pressure, the market is attempting to build a base while trading near the lower boundary of a descending channel. The recent bullish rejection from the lows suggests sellers may be losing momentum. As long as price remains above the June lows, I favor a continuation toward the first resistance area near 1.9950, followed by 2.0050 and potentially 2.0300 if momentum accelerates.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
3
MSTR Approaches A Zone That Could Decide Its Next Big MoveMSTR has returned to a major multi-year support zone after a steep decline. Price is testing the same region that held during previous cycles, making this a critical technical inflection point. This chart is about more than just the recent drop; it’s about whether long-term support will hold or give way to a deeper correction. Trend Structure Long-term trend: ascending channel from 2022 low to 2025 high. Short-term trend: lower highs and declining price pressure. Support zone (~115–120) repeatedly tested. The short-term downtrend has triggered momentum warnings, but the long-term base remains intact. Support / Resistance Support Zone: 115–120 (critical multi-year floor) Support B: ~60 (next major target if support breaks) Resistance: Upper channel trendline from historical highs. Support zone integrity is key to trend continuation. Moving Averages 1W MA50 (231.92) — above current price, reflecting short-term bearish pressure. 1W MA100 (246.69) — above price, confirming weakened momentum. 1W MA200 (156.72) — slightly above current price, acting as equilibrium level. MAs slope downward slightly, showing short-term selling pressure. Indicators Visible RSI (14) at 33.91, trending lower. Momentum remains negative but not oversold. No bullish divergence visible. Chart Pattern Multi-year horizontal support zone forming a compression structure. Downtrend trendline connecting previous highs indicates resistance. Measured move suggests possible decline toward ~60 if support breaks. Momentum Momentum currently favors sellers. Price is below MA50, with declining RSI. However, the long-term channel remains in play. Bullish Scenario Support zone holds (115–120). Price may bounce toward upper channel (~195–200). RSI stabilizes, recovering momentum. Bearish Scenario Support zone breaks decisively. Measured move target: 60. Momentum and trendline validate stronger downtrend. Key Conclusion MSTR is testing a critical multi-year support zone. The market must now decide if this level holds or if the correction deepens. Discussion Question: Will MSTR defend the 115–120 support for a bounce, or is a move toward 60 inevitable?
NASDAQ:MSTRShort
by TheCryptagon
EUR/USD: Is the Rally Over?After reviewing the latest technical structure, COT data, retail sentiment, and seasonal tendencies, I believe EUR/USD is approaching a critical decision point. The pair recently rejected a major supply zone around 1.1760–1.1800 while continuing to respect the descending trendline that has capped price since the January highs. From a positioning perspective, large speculators remain net long EUR futures, but the latest COT report reveals a reduction in long exposure. This doesn't signal an immediate trend reversal, but it does suggest that bullish conviction is fading. At the same time, USD Index positioning continues to improve, supporting the possibility of a stronger dollar environment over the coming weeks. Retail sentiment adds another interesting layer. More than half of retail traders remain long EUR/USD despite the recent decline, which from a contrarian perspective tends to favor further downside. Seasonality remains supportive for EUR strength during June, but currently it is being outweighed by weakening technical structure and improving USD sentiment. As long as price remains below 1.1675–1.1700, my preferred scenario remains a continuation lower toward the 1.1550 area, with 1.1500 and potentially 1.1450 acting as broader downside objectives. A recovery above 1.1675 would invalidate this bearish outlook and reopen the path toward 1.1760 and beyond. What matters most now is whether buyers can defend the current demand zone or if sellers regain full control of the trend.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
14
EURJPY Is Trapping Sellers AgainEURJPY continues to be one of the most interesting opportunities on my watchlist this week. From a positioning perspective, the setup remains supportive for further upside. Large speculators are still net long EUR futures while maintaining a significant net short exposure on Japanese Yen futures. This combination continues to favor EUR strength against JPY over the medium term. What makes this setup even more interesting is the current retail sentiment. Around 80% of retail traders remain short EURJPY, which historically acts as a contrarian signal. As long as the majority keeps fighting the trend, I remain cautious about aggressively fading the upside. Seasonality also adds an interesting layer. June has historically shown a tendency for strength during the first part of the month before entering a corrective phase around mid-month. This aligns closely with the current technical structure. Looking at price action, EURJPY is approaching a major daily supply zone between 186.80 and 187.50. This area represents the first significant obstacle for buyers after the strong recovery from the 182.00 demand zone. My preferred scenario is a final push into liquidity above current highs, potentially testing the 186.90–187.50 region. If sellers begin to show commitment inside this zone, I will be monitoring for signs of exhaustion and a corrective move back toward the daily fair value gap around 185.60 and potentially the 184.80 support area. The broader trend remains bullish while price holds above 184.80, but I believe the next few sessions will be crucial in determining whether EURJPY is preparing for a deeper correction or another leg higher toward the psychological 190.00 level. Current Bias: Bullish medium-term, cautious near major resistance.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
6
Gold Retests Trendline Support for Potential Bullish ReversalDescription: This 4-hour Gold (XAU/USD) chart highlights a market structure where price is pulling back toward an ascending trendline after facing resistance around the 4,570 area (marked as “XXX”). A strong support zone is identified between approximately 4,370 and 4,420, where buyers previously entered the market. The illustrated scenario suggests a potential bullish rebound from support, followed by a move higher toward resistance and possibly a breakout above it. Current price is shown near 4,484.7, with upcoming U.S. economic events marked on the timeline. Not financial advice
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by ShaaanFx
5
XAUUSD local distribution phase developing; premium mitigation rAs detailed on the chart, the asset is actively driving back up into our defined macro supply pivot. This upward vector is systematically seeking premium liquidity to mitigate resting institutional supply before the broader expansion vector can be initiated. ​We are currently tracking price behavior as it taps this critical ceiling. A confirmed failure to sustain higher liquidity tiers at this pivot will validate aggressive institutional defense, setting the stage for sell-side order flow dominance to take over. Once validated, the algorithmic repricing phase will target the lower buy-side liquidity pools and the historical liquidity void toward the 4,000 psychological magnet. Execution remains highly systematic. ​Notice: This analysis is strictly for educational purposes only and does not constitute trading signals or financial advice. All data is for internal research framework demonstration. ​#DeepMarkets #XAUUSD #OrderFlow #Macro
FPMARKETS:XAUUSD
by settsbott
3
Accumulation — Expansion — Retest StrategyThis trading strategy is based on market trend identification, Accumulation zone pinpointing, impulse range breakouts, price return (retest), and clear volume validation. ⚠️ CRITICAL RULE: Volume must be strictly concentrated within the candle's shadow (wick) before the close of the reaction candle. 🔍 1. Market Context Checklist Trend Analysis: Identify the latest initiative participant. Breakout Confirmation: Price must clearly establish and close outside the accumulation zone (beyond key support or resistance). 📐 2. Setup Structure Accumulation: A sideways range (flat/consolidation) where the market builds up volume. Action: Plot the range boundaries (Support/Resistance). Expansion: An aggressive impulse breakout of the range boundaries. Action: Do nothing. Wait. This signals the institutional intent. Retest: Price returns to the recently broken level. Action: Look for an entry point where old resistance becomes new support (or vice versa). Confirmation: Price prints a reaction at the level accompanied by a volume spike. Action: Final trigger to open the position. ⚡ 3. Step-by-Step Entry Algorithm Step 1: H1 Chart Execution 🕒Watch the H1 candles. Wait for a candle that proves the market lacks the strength to move back inside the accumulation zone. (A green candle shows buyer exhaustion; a red candle shows seller exhaustion). Step 2: Volume Analysis 📊Volume must be heavily concentrated in the "tail/wick" (upper wick for shorts, lower wick for longs). Step 3: Candle Close 🕯️The candle body must close below the high-volume node/wick level (for short setups). Step 4: M5 Confirmation ⏱️Drop down to the 5-minute chart. The first 5–10 minutes of the retest must show high volume activity and a local micro-structure breakout. 🔮 4. Visual Scenarios 🔴 Sell Signal (Short Setup): Candle: Forms right after the support level breakout. Volume Distribution: High volume cluster inside the upper wick/shadow. Market Logic: Price tried to reclaim the range but faced heavy limit-order rejection from the seller. Sellers trapped the buyers and pushed the price back down. 🟢 Buy Signal (Long Setup): Candle: Forms right after the resistance level breakout. Volume Distribution: High volume cluster inside the lower wick/shadow. Market Logic: Unsuccessful test of the level from above. Buyers actively defended their position, leaving a heavy volume tail at the bottom. 🛡️ 5. Risk Management & Filters Stop Loss (SL): Placed safely behind the accumulation boundary or right above/below the extreme point of the signal candle (+ insurance padding). Take Profit (TP): Target the nearest major structural Support/Resistance level. Aim for a minimum Risk-to-Reward Ratio (RR) of 1:2 or 1:3. Trading Psychology: If the price fails to move immediately and begins to "stagnate" or chop around the level - close the trade manually. Do not rely on hope. 🚫 DO NOT TRADE (Skip the Setup if): Price builds volume in the first 5 minutes but then closes back above/below that volume node. The H1 candle has a long wick, but the volume is completely "smeared" across the entire candle body. There was no clear "initiative" or institutional trend movement during the previous trading day.
BINANCE:BTCUSDTEducation
by MyStrategyHub
CNXU - From Accumulation to Momentum Expansion!As highlighted in our previous analysis (attached on the chart), NASDAQ:CNXU has now officially broken above its accumulation structure and appears to be entering the next phase of the move.⚠️ Following the initial Nasdaq debut volatility and post-IPO correction, bulls managed to reclaim the upper bound of the accumulation range, signaling that momentum may be shifting back in favor of buyers.📈 📊 From a technical perspective, this breakout is important because fresh IPOs often transition through clear market structure phases: • Initial price discovery • Post-IPO correction • Accumulation • Markup phase And CNXU now appears to be entering that markup phase. 📈As long as bulls maintain control above the previous accumulation zone, we will be looking for trend-following long opportunities on every correction. Since CNXU is still a newly listed stock with limited historical price data, traditional resistance zones remain relatively undeveloped. Because of that, psychological round numbers become increasingly important during price discovery. 🎯Targets: • First bullish objective: $15 • Second bullish objective: $20 • Beyond that, price discovery remains largely open if momentum expansion continues. 🚀 📰 From a fundamental perspective, CNXU continues attracting speculative attention through its regenerative medicine narrative and 3D biofabrication technologies. The company recently introduced its B.R.E.A.S.T.™ bio-regenerative tissue platform, designed to move reconstruction beyond traditional implants and toward biologically supported tissue regeneration. 🧬 In brief, CNXU appears to be transitioning from accumulation into markup, while fresh price discovery conditions continue supporting momentum expansion. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk properly. 📚 Stick to your trading plan regarding entries, risk, and management. Good luck! 🍀 All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Richard Nasr
NASDAQ:CNXULong
by TheSignalyst
8
DXY Is Trapped Below Major ResistanceThe US Dollar Index is currently sitting at one of the most important decision zones of the entire year. After reacting aggressively from the weekly demand area between 94.50 and 97.20, price managed to recover short-term momentum, but structurally the market still looks vulnerable. From a technical perspective, DXY continues to respect the descending trendline coming from the April highs. The recent rebound appears corrective rather than impulsive, and price is now approaching a key daily imbalance/FVG area around 98.50–98.90. This zone will likely determine the next macro move. As long as the dollar remains below this resistance cluster, I continue to favor a bearish continuation scenario targeting 97.20 first, followed by a possible revisit of the 95.50 weekly demand area. The COT data still supports this cautious outlook. Non-commercial traders remain slightly net short on the dollar: Long positions: 21,403 Short positions: 21,882 At the same time, Open Interest increased significantly (+8,518), signaling fresh positioning and growing participation. This usually precedes expansion in volatility, meaning the market could soon deliver a stronger directional move. Seasonality adds another layer to the analysis. Historically, May tends to be moderately positive for DXY on a 10Y and 15Y basis, but shorter-term seasonal flows (2Y) remain clearly bearish. Even more important, the broader yearly seasonal tendency points toward weakness during the summer months, especially from June into August. My focus now is entirely on how price reacts inside the current daily imbalance: Rejection from this area would confirm bearish continuation. A clean weekly reclaim above 99.50 would invalidate the bearish structure and open the path toward 100.50 and potentially 101.70.
ICEUS:DX1!Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
1