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EUR/USD Breakdown in May: Seasonality + Smart MoneyEUR/USD Weekly Outlook – May 15, 2025 EUR/USD is showing clear signs of weakness after a sharp rejection from the key supply zone between 1.1450 and 1.1600. Last week’s candle closed decisively below the 1.1250–1.1300 structure, confirming the failure to sustain bullish momentum. The RSI has also dropped below the 40 level, signaling strong downside pressure. From an institutional positioning standpoint, non-commercial traders are rebalancing: both longs and shorts on the euro have decreased, while spread positions have increased—suggesting hesitation and a lack of clear conviction. On the other hand, commercials remain heavily long on the euro, but this appears to be more of a hedging move than a directional bias. The US dollar is regaining strength, with new long positions added by speculative traders, aligning with the recent EUR/USD decline. Retail sentiment shows that a majority of traders are short, but not in extreme proportions. There’s a heavy cluster of long orders between 1.1100 and 1.1050, likely serving as liquidity targets for further downside movement. From a seasonal perspective, May is historically bearish for EUR/USD. All major seasonal timeframes (5y, 10y, 15y, 20y) point to consistent average negative performance in this month. The current 2025 trend aligns perfectly with this historical pattern, providing a statistical tailwind to the bearish thesis. Macro-wise, today’s key US data releases—PPI and Retail Sales—could significantly impact the USD. A positive surprise would further strengthen the dollar, adding downward pressure on the pair. Market attention is also focused on Fed Chair Powell's speech later today, which could add fuel to the current move. Conclusion: The macro, technical, sentiment, and seasonal frameworks all converge on a bearish continuation for EUR/USD. A weekly close below 1.1175 would confirm the downside extension, targeting the 1.0850–1.0700 demand zone. A break above 1.1330 would temporarily invalidate the bearish setup.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
2
[𝟬𝟱/𝟭𝟮] 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸𝗹𝘆 𝗦𝗣𝗫 𝗚𝗘𝗫 𝗣𝗹𝗮𝘆𝗯𝗼𝗼𝗸🔍 IF/THEN QUICK GAMMA PLAYBOOK IF > 5825 THEN path to 5900 → stall/profit-taking likely IF > 5900 THEN path to first 5950, then 6000 → gamma squeeze extension zone IF < 5825 THEN path to 5700 → test of transition zone support Chop Zone: — re-entry = short-term balance/testing zone IF < 5700 THEN path to 5500 → gamma flush / dealer unwind risk 🧭 𝗘𝗫𝗧𝗘𝗡𝗗𝗘𝗗 𝗭𝗢𝗡𝗘 𝗠𝗔𝗣/b] ✅ Gamma Flip Level 5700 → This is the confirmed Gamma Flip level = High Volatility Zone = HVL. We are comfortably above it, confirming positive gamma environment. 🧱 Major Call Walls / Resistance to upside from here 5900 → Significant call resistance zone (highlighted across GEX, profile, and /matrix command). 5825–5900 = Current rally zone → expected stall at 5900 (Profit-taking zone)5950 → Next mid-large positive gamma wall to the upside, mid-station between mounts. Dealers short gamma, adding fuel to breakout.6000 → Positive Gamma squeeze continuation target. Gamma squeeze intensifies → likely extends to 6000.🟦 Transition / Chop Zone 5700–5825 → Previous chop range. Retrace could test this before renewed upside.Currently outside and breaking up from this zone, indicating trend initiation. Balance zone from prior structure. Expect fade setups if price dips back in. Needs catalyst or strong sell flow to re-enter meaningfully. 🛡️ Major Put Supports to the downside 5700 → = HVL, also aligned with pTrans and Put support.Dealer unwind risk, downside opens.5500 → Key level if the 5700 zone fails — “total denial zone” of current FOMO. ----------------------------- This week’s SPX setup remains decisively bullish from a gamma perspective. The GEX profile shows strong positive gamma, with institutional and dealer hedging flows firmly positioned to support continued upside—especially into Friday’s OPEX. The environment is ideal for a controlled melt-up: volatility is softening, implied volatility is trending lower, and there’s no sign of panic in the options market. Put pricing skew is also declining, which suggests reduced fear and a shift toward more aggressive call buying—another sign of bullish sentiment. Dealer positioning implies that any upward momentum is likely to be chased and hedged into, reinforcing the trend. However, traders should stay alert: if SPX slips back below 5825, we may see a pause or retracement back into the 5700–5825 transition zone. Only a decisive break below 5700 would flip the gamma regime back to negative and open the door to real downside volatility.
SPREADEX:SPX
by TanukiTrade
GBP/USD Bulls Are Back? Institutions Are Loading Up1. Price Action & Zone Mapping GBP/USD is consolidating above 1.3300 after a strong bullish reaction near the demand zone between 1.3040 and 1.3150 — an area that has already rejected price twice in recent months. While the market structure still shows lower highs, the weekly candlestick formation signals a clear loss of bearish momentum. On the upside, the 1.3500–1.3600 zone remains the key supply area to break for a structural reversal to be confirmed. 2. COT Report – Institutional Positioning (as of May 6, 2025) Non-Commercials (speculators) added +3,320 long positions and reduced -1,956 shorts, bringing the net long to +7,683 contracts — a strong bullish signal. Commercials remain net short, but not with increasing aggression. 👉 The net positioning supports continued bullish bias, aligned with the recent technical rebound. 3. USD Index – Opposite Positioning Non-Commercials increased both longs and shorts slightly on the US Dollar Index, but net positioning remains neutral with a slight bearish tilt. This suggests a phase of indecision or mild retracement in the dollar, which indirectly supports GBP/USD upside. 4. GBP/USD Seasonality – Historical Behavior in May According to MarketBulls data, May tends to be neutral-to-weak for the pair: 15-year avg: +0.0023 5-year avg: -0.016 2-year avg: +0.0069 Overall, this supports a ranging or corrective phase — not a high-conviction trending month. A breakout may need more confirmation. 5. Retail Sentiment Currently, 60% of retail traders are short GBP/USD, with an average price of 1.2959, while only 40% are long from 1.3337. 👉 This imbalance favors a contrarian bullish narrative, especially if the market decides to run stops below 1.3300. ✅ Operational Outlook GBP/USD is showing bullish consolidation signs, backed by: Increasing institutional long interest Contrarian retail sentiment (potential fuel for rallies) Solid demand near 1.3040–1.3150 However, neutral seasonality and lack of structural breakout advise caution. A pullback towards 1.3200–1.3150 might come before any further upside move toward 1.3500. 🔍 Preferred Play: Wait for a retest of 1.3150 with price action confirmation before entering long. A strong breakout above 1.3350 would be early confirmation of renewed bullish pressure.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
3
How to use Dynamic Market Structure to track market moves🔍 Idea Overview This chart demonstrates the effectiveness of the Dynamic Market Structure Indicator in live conditions, capturing key Break of Structure (BoS) and Change of Character (ChoCH) points. Each zone dynamically adapts based on price behavior and helps identify crucial turning points. 📌 Highlights from the Chart • ✅ Early BoS detection led to accurate identification of the bullish breakout before the major rally starting May 7. • ✅ Multiple successful ChoCH zones indicated potential reversal areas and pause zones during sideways consolidation. • ✅ The green (BoS) and red (ChoCH) horizontal zones aligned perfectly with price reaction levels, acting as reliable support/resistance. • ✅ During the pullback post-high, the indicator caught clear bearish ChoCH before price dropped nearly $2,000, showing high responsiveness. 📊 Summary of Performance • Rally captured from ~95,000 to ~104,000 with early BoS signals. • Sideways zones around 103,000–104,000 marked with structural shifts that predicted stalling. • Post-drop behavior accurately highlighted re-test of ChoCH zones before reversal attempts. ⚙️ Indicator Logic (Brief) • BoS (Green): Confirms trend continuation when structure breaks in the direction of the trend. • ChoCH (Red): Signals a potential trend reversal with key level break. No repainting. Zones are locked once confirmed. In volatile markets like BTC, accurate detection of structural shifts can define risk and opportunity. This indicator consistently tracked evolving zones and highlighted major inflection points — without lag or overfitting.
by TradeTechanalysis
EUR/AUD: Rebound or Continuation of the Drop?EUR/AUD is in a critical situation after a strong bearish trend that pushed the price into a key support area. Analyzing the daily chart, we can observe that the price is testing a strong demand zone, highlighted in blue, from which a potential rebound towards the upper supply zone (in red) could emerge. The retail sentiment confirms strong short pressure, with 82% of traders positioned on the downside. This excess pessimism suggests, from a contrarian perspective, a possible rebound. Additionally, the oscillator indicates an oversold condition, reinforcing the hypothesis of a correction. From an institutional point of view, the COT data shows a slight reduction in long positions for both EUR and AUD, but with one detail: speculators remain predominantly long on EUR and short on AUD. Meanwhile, hedgers continue to protect themselves against a possible decline in the euro, demonstrating caution. In terms of seasonality, May has historically been a weak month for both currencies, but in the last two years, EUR has shown a slight recovery, while AUD has demonstrated signs of stability. Trading Strategy: Monitor the reaction to the support zone carefully. A bullish signal in this area could pave the way for a rebound towards the upper resistance. However, a bearish breakout would confirm the ongoing downward trend.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
MSTR (Strategy) coming up to $395, the smaller resistance levelNASDAQ:MSTR has rebounded from the bottom fairly fast compared to other stocks and indexes. It's even performed better than Bitcoin itself. However it should be hitting heavy resistance now near 395-400 and above is only heavier resistance. It's time for a pullback and a breather for MSTR. Target is the Point of Control near $350, before going higher. However we could turn bullish again before reaching $350 I personally know someone who played with fire by buying MSTR options calls while it was dropping before, meaning he was trying to catch a falling knife and got burnt finally. He lost nearly $500,000 because of it. So I don't mess with options personally, however I will margin trade with stocks and trade futures, forex and leverage trade cryptocurrencies.
NASDAQ:MSTRShort
by SakisBack
1
Altcoins Trading Strategy (Tips)There are many ways to approach the market, many ways to approach Crypto. There are strategies focused on the long-term while others will focus on the short-term. Know this, the market is set to grow very strongly. Now, you might be conditioned to take certain actions or have a reaction when something happens due to past history. Say you went through the strong 2022 bear market and then within the transition years, 2023 and 2024 and all the way through mid-2025, each time there was some bullish action it invariably ended in a strong correction. So you might be thinking, "Hey, after some growth it is all going to crash!" But no, that is not what is going to happen. You see, the market moves in cycles and these cycles are four years long. Regardless of the transition period, now is not the time to be taking profits after a 20%-30% bullish jump, which is minimum for Crypto. Yes, you can approach the market short-term but short-term with the conditions we have present now means 200-300%. That would be short-term. After this much growth, close a trade and move to the next pair. If you are thinking long-term; less dealing, less clicking, easy profits no stress, then buy and hold. The top will be very clear once it comes. If not clear, you will see your profits grow some 500% to 800% and in some cases even more. When your capital is up by that much, you can consider taking some profits. Remember another one, keep this one in mind. You don't have to be 100% right. If you are uncertain if you should secure profits in the coming months, you can always sell just a portion, can be 10% or 20% and wait to see what the market does next. It is not necessary to close a position by 100% thinking "I got the top." Another one, "near the top," is something to keep in mind. Not the exact top just as we don't need to catch the exact bottom. This can result in stress, anxiety and losses. Just be happy and grateful with whatever you receive. To close this one, never use a stop-loss when trading spot, never. It is a recipe for disaster, just buy and hold and the market will bless you with money, peace of mind, financial success and love. If you set a stop-loss order, the whales and trading bots will fill your order and you will secure a losing trade. Rather than putting a sell order below your entry price, put it above, always high up, the higher the better, because the exchanges bots are programmed based on the sell orders that people place. If everybody places their orders really high up, this creates pressure on the programs to buy more and more and more. The higher the resistance zone (your sell orders), the more the market will grow. When the time for shakeouts and corrections comes, do nothing. Either sell BEFORE the correction happens or be prepared to wait long-term. You have to plan BEFORE, not out of an impulse, because the impulse will push you to make mistakes. I am wishing you success and profits. If you enjoy the content, consider giving a follow and leaving a comment. Namaste.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALLong
by MasterAnanda
12
MSTR - Strategy B fractalsVery interesting patters in MSTR stock when using Fibo levels. By taking the high of 2021 as the reference (fibo = 1) and projecting it to the current cycle we can see that: 2024 mid year top was 1.618 level and mid year low was 0.786 level. 2024 blow off top was 4.236 level. Now if we take the 2024 consolidation range and apply fibo to the top and lows of that range, we get also the blow off top at the same level: 4.236, and exactly the same price (around $500). If we recursively apply this to current blow off top and current low in 2025, we would get a blow off top of around $1,500 if we aim at the 4.236 fibo level.
NASDAQ:MSTRLong
by UnderstandingBitcoinPrice
XAU/USD: Institutional Accumulation or New Bearish Impulse?Technical Context: The graphical analysis shows that the price of gold (XAU/USD) is currently consolidating within a significant demand zone following the recent bullish impulse. The daily chart shows an attempt to bounce off the 3,300 USD zone, a key psychological level. Volume and COT Analysis: The latest COT data (April 29, 2025) indicates a slight reduction in long positions by non-commercial operators (-18,519 contracts), balanced by an increase in commercial long positions (+1,659 contracts), signaling potential institutional accumulation. On the retail sentiment front, traders are slightly more exposed to the downside (51% short vs. 49% long), which could indicate a potential short squeeze if the price resumes an upward trend. Seasonal Trends: According to data, May historically shows mixed performances with an average of +9.83% over the last 10 years, but with significant fluctuations between longer and more recent periods. Key Levels: Resistance: 3,380 - 3,400 USD (previous distribution zone) Support: 3,300 USD (current demand zone) and 3,050 USD (secondary support) Trading Strategy: Bullish Scenario: Buy above 3,340 USD with a target at 3,400 USD and a stop loss below 3,300 USD. Bearish Scenario: Sell below 3,300 USD with a target at 3,050 USD and a stop loss above 3,340 USD.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by EdgeTradingJourney
9
GBPNZD: Support Rebound! Target 2.26 on the Horizon? The weekly chart of GBPNZD shows a consolidation phase following a strong bearish impulse. The price has reacted positively from the support area around 2.2200, forming a significant bullish candle that could indicate a rebound towards the resistance area at 2.2600. The positive momentum suggests a possible test of the intermediate resistance at 2.2500, with the RSI gradually rising from an oversold zone. Fundamental Analysis According to the COT data updated as of April 29, 2025, we observe an increase in long positions on GBP by institutional traders, with an increment of +10,665 contracts. On the other hand, commercial traders (hedgers) continue to maintain a significant short exposure on GBP. This imbalance may suggest a potential short-term speculative interest in a bullish GBP move. Regarding NZD, the latest COT report shows a significant increase in commercial long positions (+3,884 contracts), indicating a strengthening of the New Zealand dollar. However, the overall market sentiment shows a prevalence of short positions on GBPNZD (59% short vs. 41% long), suggesting that retail traders might be on the wrong side of the market. Seasonal Analysis Historically, in May, GBP tends to show weakness (-0.0076 over the last 20 years), while NZD does not show a clear seasonal pattern. This could reduce the likelihood of a decisive GBP movement during this month. Operational Strategy The rebound from 2.2200 could favor the opening of long positions with the first target at 2.2500 and the second target at 2.2600. The stop loss could be placed below the key support at 2.2100. In case of a resistance breakout, an extension towards the 2.2700 area would be plausible.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
From $1.37 to $8.48 in 5 hours +518% Massive start of the week with 2 Buy Alerts sent out right before vertical move! $4.00 confirmed as important line in premarket trading already, then quickly set a strong support above it as soon as market opened and when it came down to re-test it again after initial pop it was showing strong hidden buying in that area which was confirming everything else we were looking and aiming for - power vertical squeeze to new highs. Biggest stock gainer of the entire stock market today AMEX:GPUS Get ready for next ones!
AMEX:GPUS
by ProfitTradeRoom
They Were 84% Short — Here's What Happened Next on GBPAUDThis is not just a simple breakout — this is what happens when data, price action, and psychology align with surgical precision. Today, we entered a long position on GBPAUD directly from a well-defined weekly demand zone. The setup was already technically solid, but what made it exceptional was the alignment of multiple institutional-grade factors: ✅ Weekly demand zone respected to the pip, with proven historical sensitivity ✅ Change of structure on the H1 chart, confirming a short-term reversal from a deeply discounted area ✅ COT data showing a clear build-up of commercial long positions on the British pound ✅ AUD net positioning deep in negative territory, with declining open interest and no signs of reversal ✅ Retail sentiment: 84% of traders short on GBPAUD according to MyFxBook → strong contrarian signal ✅ Seasonality: GBP tends to outperform AUD during May and June The result? A rapid and aggressive bullish impulse that allowed us to move the stop loss to break-even just a few hours after entry. 📌 Current trade status: ➤ Long from the demand zone ➤ SL at BE = zero risk ➤ Monitoring price action above 2.07 for potential continuation 🎯 Mid-term target zone: 2.1150–2.1300, with focus on liquidity clusters and previous inefficiencies as potential magnets. This is how you build trades that are not just reactive, but proactive — based on multiple layers of confluence and edge, not on emotions or noise.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
MICROSTRATEGY: Big 1W MA50 rebound targeting $845 at worst.MicroStrategy is on excellent bullish technicals on its 1D outlook (RSI = 67.412, MACD = 25.350, ADX = 58.097), capitalizing on the double bottom rebound on the 1W MA50 four weeks ago. Technically that was also a HL bottom on the 2 year Channel Up. The minimum rise it delivered on a bullish wave was +263.38%. Based on that, the trade is long, TP = $845. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ##
NASDAQ:MSTRLong
by InvestingScope
1
Strategy $MSTR hits resistance, what will it do? NASDAQ:MSTR has rebounded from the bottom fairly fast compared to other stocks and indexes. It's even performed better than Bitcoin itself. It is up about 65% from the low we set a few months ago. However it should be hitting heavy resistance now near 395-400 and above is only heavier resistance. It's time for a pullback and a breather for MSTR. Target is the Point of Control near $350, before going higher. However we could turn bullish again before reaching $350. I personally know someone who played with fire by buying NASDAQ:MSTR options calls while it was dropping before, meaning he was trying to catch a falling knife and got burnt finally. He lost nearly $500,000 because of it. So I don't mess with options personally, however I will margin trade with stocks and trade futures, forex and leverage trade cryptocurrencies.
NASDAQ:MSTRShort
by SakisBack
GOLD (XAU/USD, 4H) updateOn the 4-hour chart, GOLD has broken below the lower boundary of a pennant pattern on increasing volume, signaling potential for continued downside. Despite this, the asset remains within the confines of a bullish megaphone structure, whose boundaries are still intact. The EMA indicators (20/50/100/200) are aligned in a bearish sequence, exerting downward pressure. The price is consolidating below the $3295 level and is approaching key demand zones. Near-Term Downside Targets: - $3177 — Intermediate demand zone - $3063 — Major support level Technical Highlights: - Breakdown from bearish pennant confirmed by volume - Price action continues within the bullish megaphone pattern - EMA 20/50/100/200 positioned above price, indicating overhead resistance - Volume increases observed during downward moves - Key buyer interest zone: $3060–$3080 - Resistance zone: $3295–$3305 Following the breakdown from the consolidation pattern, gold is exhibiting a downward trajectory targeting support zones at $3177 and $3063. The bearish scenario is technically confirmed as long as the price remains below $3295. However, the movement within the bullish megaphone structure warrants close monitoring for potential shifts in momentum.
TVC:GOLDShort
by TotoshkaTrades
AMZN Amazon Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought AMZN before the previous rally: Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of AMZN Amazon prior to the earnings report this week, I would consider purchasing the 210usd strike price Calls with an expiration date of 2025-6-20, for a premium of approximately $3.75. If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:AMZNLong
by TopgOptions
S&P500: Rebound or Bull Trap?Over the past week, the S&P500 weekly chart showed a key technical signal: the formation of a bullish engulfing. This pattern emerged after several weeks of strong monthly bearish pressure, suggesting a potential reversal attempt or, at the very least, a technical rebound. Analyzing the key levels, the price reacted inside a major demand area (visible on the monthly timeframe), positioned between 5,450 and 5,500 points. The reaction from this zone reinforces the validity of the engulfing and suggests the market could now aim for the first resistance targets around 5,600 - 5,650. Further upside targets are located at 5,837 and 6,023, previously marked as high-confluence zones. From an institutional positioning perspective, the latest COT Report (April 22, 2025) reveals interesting developments: Commercials (big players) increased their long contracts by +22,226 units, showing strong interest in upside protection. Non-Commercials (speculators) also increased their longs (+8,754), but added even more to their shorts (+20,667). The Net Positioning for Non-Commercials remains negative but has stabilized at less extreme levels compared to March, suggesting a possible phase of accumulation or preparation for a sentiment shift. 📊 The Net Positions chart shows a reduction in net short pressure — a warning sign for those still heavily short. Summary: The weekly engulfing is a technical signal not to underestimate. We are trading within a strong monthly demand zone. COT data suggests a decrease in bearish pressure, although not yet a full sentiment reversal. However, caution is necessary: a firm break below 5,450 would invalidate the bullish signal and reopen the path toward corrections at 5,200 and 5,000. Current Strategy: Slight bullish bias above 5,500. Short-term target: 5,600 → 5,650. Next targets: 5,837 and 6,023. Invalidation level: weekly close below 5,450. Watching the price action around key resistance levels will be crucial: the market will decide whether this rebound consolidates or becomes just a trap for new buyers.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
GBP/JPY at the Edge! Bounce or Breakdown? The weekly chart of GBP/JPY reveals a highly volatile scenario, with a recent bearish expansion pushing the price back toward a key support zone between 185.00 and 188.30 — an area that has been defended multiple times in the past. After an attempted recovery toward the supply zone between 194.00 and 195.00, the pair encountered heavy selling pressure, failing to break out and sharply reversing. From a technical perspective, the move suggests a possible swing failure above local highs, with the current weekly candle confirming a return below resistance. Price action is now within a critical area: if the current support holds, we could see a technical rebound with interim targets at 191.40 and potentially back toward 194.00. However, a breakdown below 185.00 would open the door to deeper correction, with possible extensions toward 182.00 and 180.00 — both zones marked by previous accumulation. The RSI, after dipping into oversold territory, is now attempting a reaction, indicating that buyers are trying to regain control, though the structure remains fragile. Strategically, this phase demands caution: aggressive longs may seek confirmation of reversal above current lows, while bearish traders should closely watch for a confirmed breakdown below support. The 188.30 to 191.40 price range will be key to monitoring the next directional move.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
GBP/NZD Breakdown Imminent? Smart Money and Seasonality Say YES!🧠 1. Price Action & Technical Structure Price was firmly rejected from the monthly supply zone between 2.33 – 2.35, marked by strong bearish candles. A bounce occurred at the weekly demand between 2.20 – 2.22, where accumulation and a short-term reversal formed (dashed white arrow). Currently, price is trading near the lower bound of a compression range (2.22 – 2.26), sitting below a key intermediate resistance (dark teal zone). RSI is in the neutral-to-low zone, with no major divergence, leaving room for further downside. Technical Bias: Neutral to Bearish unless we get a weekly close above 2.26–2.27. 📊 2. COT Data GBP Asset Managers remain net short, though improving since January. Leveraged Money sharply reducing long exposure since early April → Institutional bullish sentiment weakening. NZD Asset Managers have been heavily short for over a year, but shorts are being reduced since February → slight sentiment recovery. Leveraged Money flat, with no clear long build-up yet. ➡️ Combined COT Outlook: The GBP's advantage over NZD is fading. This supports a sideways to slightly bearish outlook on GBP/NZD. 📅 3. Seasonality April: Historically bearish for GBP/NZD (–0.2971 avg.), aligning with current downward move. May: Also typically bearish (–0.2964 avg.) → suggesting potential continued weakness. ➡️ Seasonal Bias: Bearish through mid-to-late May. 🧠 4. Retail Sentiment Around 70% of retail traders are long GBP/NZD → classic contrarian bearish signal. Average long entry: 2.1800, current price: 2.2246 → many longs in profit. Potential for profit taking or breakeven pullback adds to bearish pressure. 📌 Trade Plan Summary Weekly Bias: → Bearish / Range-bound 📉 Short Zones of Interest: 2.26 – 2.27 → key resistance zone Stop above 2.2850 (H4/H1 close above invalidates setup) 🎯 Targets: 2.2050 → recent demand re-test 2.1850 / 2.1650 → deeper demand zones visible on chart 🧠 Invalidation Level: Daily close above 2.2850 → structure turns bullish
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
USDCAD at Risk? COT Turns Bearish📊 COT Overview – CAD & USD Futures 🇨🇦 Canadian Dollar (CAD) Asset Managers: Still net short, but recovering fast → from -150K to nearly -50K. Leveraged Money: Strong bullish reversal from -100K to -30K and climbing. ✅ Interpretation: Institutions are flipping bullish on CAD → Bearish pressure on USDCAD. 🇺🇸 US Dollar (USD) Asset Managers: Cutting long exposure since March. Leveraged Money: Losing conviction → neutral to slightly long. ⚠️ Interpretation: USD is structurally weakening → adding to the USDCAD bearish bias. 🧠 Technical Analysis Price has returned to the key demand zone (1.3700–1.3850) for the third test. Candles are compressing → signal of upcoming volatility. RSI remains weak, no bullish divergence → no clear reversal yet. 📌 Key Levels: Support: 1.3700 → A confirmed break opens space toward 1.3550–1.3480. Resistance: 1.3950–1.4100 🎯 Trade Scenarios 🔻 Breakdown trade below 1.3700 → Target: 1.3480 🔁 Pullback short on rejection from 1.3950–1.4000 → SL above 1.4100 🔼 Long only with a bullish engulfing weekly close + RSI divergence ✅ Summary COT Bias: Bearish USDCAD → CAD strengthening, USD weakening Technical Structure: Support under pressure, breakout likely Preferred Play: Short continuation on breakdown or pullback rejection
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
$XYZ pullback would be a gift for longsNYSE:XYZ back in bull trend here since tapping the 50 psych level. The 100WMA showing some confluence here with bull flag + trendline break from last month's disaster. Fibs also coincide with some of the idea here with us currently in the golden zone Short term, I'd take a stop here below 52.50 as it can get ugly back to 50, and would consider taking another long there at 50. For now, 53-54 range looks good for long pullback. 54.60 is the 333SMA on the 1HR chart here. Looks like a great spot for starter entries. If the pullback does not come, a break above 57 (pm highs TODAY, 4/23) should see a nice push towards 60 psych level which could see some strong resistance. Targeting 62 if we break 60. Leaps look great here with all this confluence. Easy stop below that 50 psych. Targets on chart are assuming we do not get a pullback tomorrow. If we do, the r/r becomes much better to the long side. This chart does not look good for bears. Options flow Thoughts on XYZ?
NYSE:XYZLong
by chrisgxtct6663
2