DB. commodity index idea (13/09/2022)DB. commodity index
We expect the index to continue declining because prices are below the 27.05 resistance point, and wave (2) has already ended and started falling in waves (3). We expect prices to drop to 1.618% at 22.18, but currently, we expect the correction to continue to 61% at 26.06 to end wave 2 before descending again.
Sugar
Commodity Wheat idea (06/09/2022)wheat
The completion of the (C) wave of the flat irregular wave, and we expect a drop in wheat in the coming period after ending the correction pattern as we explained, and we expect it to target 773 at 1.618%, or it may continue to 2.618% at 744 since trading is the lowest point of resistance 839.25
Shree Renuka Sugars - 240 MinsThe Structure looks good to us, waiting for this instrument to correct and then give us these opportunities as shown on this instrument (Price Chart).
Note: its my view only and its for educational purpose only. only who has got knowledge about this strategy, will understand what to be done on this setup. its purely based on my technical analysis only (strategies). we don't focus on the short term moves, we look for only for Bullish or Bearish Impulsive moves on the setups after a good price action is formed as per the strategy. we never get into corrective moves. because it will test our patience and also it will be a bullish or a bearish trap. and try trade the big moves.
we do not get into bullish or bearish traps. we anticipate and get into only big bullish or bearish moves (Impulsive moves).
Just ride the bullish or bearish impulsive move. Learn & Know the Complete Market Cycle.
buy low and sell high concept. buy at cheaper price and sell at expensive price.
Keep it simple, keep it Unique.
please keep your comments useful & respectful.
Thanks for your support....
Commodity Coffee idea (02/09/2022)coffee
We expect the rise to continue to complete wave 3 of wave (5). We expect it to continue to 1.618, targeting 248.55. we expect not to break the support point at 209.45, which is the bottom of wave 2. Currently, we expect a correction in wave ((iv)) before completing the rise.
DHAMPUR SUGAR MILL - Short-term Trend analysisDHAMPUR SUGAR MILL - Short-term Trend analysis
1. V shape recovery, it falls more than 65% from the all-time high...
2. It May be in the over-bath zone.
3. If the stock opens and closes at more than 234 then it may have a short-term up rally.
4. Target is 317 if the market trend reversal.
5. Fundamentally good stock, maybe we can hold for the mid-term for a good profit.
Note:
1. I’m not a SEBI Registered advisor, my research is personal and for educational purposes only.
2. Always check with your financial advisor and take the trade as per your risk/reward ratio.
3. Follow me for more patterns and like, and share so that we feel it is helpful to many and share more patterns...
SugarSugar has been trading within a large rising channel for almost a year. After recently testing and confirming channel support, price has rebounded and we're just about halfway up the channel. A falling window (gap down) served as resistance on the way down to support and has also temporary stalled the current rally.
Now, after a strong daily close above the falling window we are currently testing old resistance as new support. I'm now long and looking to take a small piece out of this market as price moves towards channel resistance.
SUGAR Will Go Up! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
SUGAR was trading in a falling channel
but now we are seeing a powerful bullish breakout
So I think that after the pullback and retest
We will see a further move up towards the target
Buy!
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WHITE SUGAR CASH CFD SETUP IDEAWeek setup: Bearish Engulfing bar
Day signal: Retest of Hidden Head & Shoulders neckline.
4HR Signal: Retest of Head & Shoulders neckline + Double Tops downtrend.
1HR Signal: Retest of Double Top downtrend neckline.
IDEA: A strong daily close of price below $549 would suggest a more bearish sentiment.
How does the surge in sugar futures affect Coca-Cola’s profit?
Sugar is used in food, beverage, and in biofuel production, and its importance in global trade gives it a strong position in the commodity futures market. The price of sugar has surged 17% since the beginning of January 2021.
Reduced Brazil production
Sugar prices have recently been affected by production levels in Brazil, a key sugarcane producer and exporter. In May, Brazilian mills reportedly had to cancel sugar export contracts as they shifted to ethanol production, seeking to capitalize on high energy prices.
Brazil supplies half of the world’s sugar, producing 654.8 million tonnes of sugarcane, 41.25 million tonnes of processed sugar and 29.7 billion liters of ethanol annually.
As the Ukraine crisis triggered a global energy crisis, Brazilian farmers shifted to ethanol production. However, the US Department of Agriculture estimates that sugarcane crop in Brazil will recover 6% year over year to 613 million metric tons in the 2022-2023 marketing year.
Strong output in India and Thailand
Still, India and Thailand, which also export substantial volumes of sugar, are making up for the reduced output in Brazil. Last month, a trade group in India said the country could produce a record 36 million tonnes of sugar in 2021/22, up 3% from early estimates.
The record output in India and improving production levels in Thailand could bring global sugar prices down. But concerns that the Indian government could curb exports recently pushed the prices of sugar futures higher.
Sugar users bear brunt
While concerns of lower sugar production can be a win for sugar futures traders, users of the commodity are bearing the costs of low sugar supplies and higher inflation.
Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO), known for its namesake sugary drink, is considering additional price hikes as record-high inflation is eating away companies’ profit margins.
Last year, Coca-Cola raised the prices of its products to counter higher commodity costs, joining other consumer brands like PepsiCo (NASDAQ:PEP) and J.M. Smucker (NYSE:SJM).
The price hike helped the soda manufacturer grow its full-year revenue in 2021 by 17% year over year to $38.7 billion. Household brands like Coca-Cola, which continues to dominate the global market for soft drinks, have strong pricing power, allowing them to pass on higher input costs to customers.
Thus, Coca-Cola’s stock price has risen in line with the price of sugar since the beginning of 2021, up by ~20%.
However, Coca-Cola and rival PepsiCo recently suffered from lower margins despite strong revenues. The companies warned in February that rising costs are weighing on their profit margins, prompting them to lower their sales expectations.
Banking on pricing power
"We control our supply chain basically all the way to the shelf. That puts us in a relatively better position, but I wouldn't say we're not going to have challenges. We're not immune to that," Johnston reportedly said.
PepsiCo’s stock climbed 13% over the past year as of Tuesday.
Coca-Cola CFO John Murphy echoed Johnston’s concerns, telling analysts in an earnings call in February that the company continues to expect commodity price inflation to have a mid-single-digit impact on comparable cost of goods sold in 2022.
But Murphy remains bullish on the company’s pricing power, saying commodity pressures will be offset by the company’s “pricing power and brand leadership.”
July 22' Sugar Futures Fibonacci Retracement Technical AnalysisDrawing a Fibonacci Retracement from the low of 17.36 made on Feb 3, to the high of 20.46 made on April 13, we have retraced 61.8% of the up move. 18.54 is that level, which was also the low of the day yesterday, May 4, 2022.
This is the line in the sand for bulls, but considering it held, and we are about to poke our head out above the Ichimoku Cloud, the odds are in their favor. 18.44 was the low of the day Mar 16, and a close below this level can take the market south to the ~18.00 level. Longs have a good risk/reward trade here, with stop levels positioned below 18.44.
Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
The great 2022 rotation Tech/Crypto -> Agriculture.Opinion:
As oil prices increase, crop rotations kick-in favoring Wheat production where the climate is appropriate. Price of agricultural goods is affected by increased transport prices and crop production space rotations. I expect all agricultural produces prices to increase significantly in the coming months. Including sugar. TP1 looks attractive.
This is not intended or made to constitute any financial advice.
Notes on how I personally use my charts/NFA:
Each level L1-L3 and TP1-TP3 has a deployment percentage. The idea is to flag these levels so I can buy 11% at L1 , 28% at L2 and if L3 deploy 61% of assigned dry powder. The same in reverse goes for TP. TP1: 61%, TP2:28% and TP3:11%. If chart pivots between TP's, in-between or in Between Sell levels these percentages are still respected. I like to use the trading range to accumulate by using this tactic.
Just my personal way of using this. This is not intended or made to constitute any financial advice.
This is not intended or made to constitute any financial advice.
FED Macro Situation Consideration:
All TP's are drawn within the context of a return to FED neutral policy. I do not expect these levels to be reached before tightening is over.
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CANE - Fertilizer Shortage TradeIt's a Brave New World. Fertilizer was facing a shortage going into 2022 (like most commodities, it has had a undersized amount of investment, with tech seeing most of the in flows) but after the Putin YOLO (that's my ELI5), potash is now in shortage. Using that fact as a basis for expanding my commodity thesis to include more food commodities.
I picked CANE because of the chart. Sugar has not caught bids like soy and corn and it's chart is a screaming buy. Before smashing the market buy button like an ape, watch the long standing resistance level we are at right now. This resistance has held since 2017 so this is a critical level. I am expecting a retest at the 9.75 level where I will be looking at the volume response. I'm so itchy to buy that I might buy regardless of response, the tailwinds are simply too strong to ignore. It is taking a great deal of restraint to wait for a response but since it is such a vital level and I want the best entry possible, patience and watching volume response is the name of the game.
I will update with entry price. Happy hunting, Good luck, and God speed.
🍭Sugar fever! Top of the trend ?● Sugar #11 - ICE (SB.F) 🕐 TF: 30D
Fig.1 USX lb (pound)
In Figure 1 , you can see the wave count from January 2021 . A continuation of the upward correction Ⓑ with the target zone 18.04-21.27 was predicted. At the moment, the set goal has been achieved, the corrective wave looks completed. The probability of resuming the decline by the final impulse Ⓒ of e of (IV) is high.
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● SUGARUSD - OANDA 🕐 TF: 1D
Fig.2
An alternative wave count is marked in black, in which the minimum of 2020 , the level of 0.9051 , corresponds to the top of the supercycle (IV) . This counting option will become more relevant if the subsequent series of ascending zigzags, which at this stage is marked as (W)-(X)-(Y) of Ⓑ , takes the form of a diagonal .
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● SUGARUSD - OANDA 🕐 TF: 4h
Fig.3
Provided that waves (1)-(2) are formed as part of the emerging bearish trend, the first of which goes beyond the top (X) and consolidates under the lower border of the rising channel, there will be a good prospect for a short position.
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