US100: Strong resistance sell setup on the 30-minute chart
📈 SKILLING:US100 — Technical Analysis: Sell Setup Near Strong Resistance
🔍 Technical Analysis:
• Currently, US100 price is approaching a significant resistance zone (highlighted in red). This area has acted as a strong ceiling in recent sessions, where sellers tend to emerge.
• The price has rallied back after a sharp decline but is showing signs of slowing momentum as it nears this resistance. This often leads to a rejection rather than a clean breakout, especially on a 30-minute timeframe.
• Below, the light blue zones represent key support levels, which could serve as realistic targets if sellers regain control. These zones are important areas where buyers previously stepped in, creating potential bounce points.
• The drawn dashed lines illustrate a possible price path: a test of the resistance level, failure to break higher, followed by a pullback and continuation of the downward trend.
• For confirmation of the sell setup, traders should look for reversal candlestick patterns such as rejection wicks (long upper shadows), bearish engulfing candles, or pin bars at the resistance zone. These signals help validate that sellers are gaining dominance.
• Volume and momentum indicators should also be monitored for divergence or weakening bullish pressure near resistance to strengthen the case for a sell.
📊 Trade Considerations:
• Entering a sell position should be done only after clear confirmation of price rejection at resistance.
• Setting a stop loss slightly above the resistance zone helps manage risk in case of a false breakout.
• Targets can be placed near the support zones (light blue areas), with partial profit-taking to lock gains while allowing some position to run if price reacts there.
📌 Summary:
The technical structure of US100 on the 30-minute chart suggests a high probability of price reversal from the strong resistance area. A cautious sell setup is favored, waiting for confirming price action signals to reduce risk. Proper risk management is essential to navigate potential volatility near this key level.
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Harry Andrew @ ZuperView
Support
$BTC Bearish Divergence Signals Possible Correction Toward 118KBitcoin on the 4-hour chart is flashing a clear bearish divergence — while price is forming a higher high, RSI is slipping into a lower high. 📉
This setup often hints at an upcoming correction phase. Based on the current market structure, 118K appears to be a strong liquidity gap area where a short-term bounce or lower high could form.
However, if BTC loses its footing below 107K, that’s where the real bearish confirmation kicks in. Until then, the 107K support remains the key battleground for bulls to defend. ⚔️
Volume analysis also supports the correction narrative — buying pressure is fading while selling momentum is picking up. Stay alert for a possible test near 118K before the next major move.
#Bitcoin #BTCAnalysis
ETHUSDT 1D chart review📊 1. Main trend
• The chart shows a long -term movement in the inheritance trend channel in which the price is currently fighting for the mountain, but here you can see that the inferior canal limit is a strong resistance for the price.
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🧠 2. Medium walking
• We see the cut SMA 50 and SMA 200 (so -called Golden Cross) - this is an upward signal in day interval.
• EMA 50 (green) is approaching the intersection of EMA 200 (red) - if the growth cross is confirmed, it may mean further growth time.
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💹 3. Horizers of support and resistance
Support:
• 4,034 USDT - strong level, defended after the last inheritance.
• 4,252 USDT - short -term support (after breaking above trendline).
Resistance:
• 4 720 USDT - local resistance, previously rejected several times.
• 4,966 USDT - next strong resistance (local peak).
If ETH pierces 4 720 with a volume, the road opens towards 4,950-5,000 USDT.
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⚙️ 4. Indicators
Macd:
• The histogram grows green → growth momentum.
• The MacD line cut the signal line from the bottom → buy signal.
RSI:
• RSI around 60, which indicates the advantage of bulls, but without buying out.
• If the RSI pierces 70, a short -term pullback may occur.
KIOCL on the verge of 8 years BreakOut📊 KIOCL Ltd – 8-Year Breakout Summary
🔑 Price Action Overview
The stock is trading at ₹528.80 (+19.99%), hitting an upper circuit with strong momentum.
Price is on the verge of a multi-year breakout from the consolidation zone that lasted nearly 8 years (2017–2025).
Historically, every breakout in KIOCL has led to sharp parabolic moves (2017 rally, 2020 rally, 2024 rally).
📈 Key Resistance Levels
1. ₹540 – ₹560 zone → Immediate breakout resistance (current price testing this zone).
2. ₹620 – ₹650 → Next major resistance; earlier rejection zones in 2017 and 2024.
3. ₹750 – ₹800 → Medium-term resistance zone.
4. ₹900 – ₹1000 → Psychological & historical supply zone.
📉 Key Support Levels
1. ₹500 – ₹510 → Immediate support (previous resistance now acting as support).
2. ₹450 – ₹460 → Strong support, base of recent rally.
3. ₹400 – ₹410 → Long-term support, multiple touch points (2023–24).
4. ₹340 – ₹350 → Strong multi-year support zone; breakdown here invalidates bullish structure.
🔍 Volume & Strength
Volume has spiked sharply (11.5M vs avg 9.9M), confirming institutional buying interest.
Weekly chart breakout with highest volume in years indicates accumulation phase turning into expansion phase.
📊 Technical Indicators
Momentum: RSI likely entering overbought zone but still bullish (strengthening breakout).
Trend: Higher highs & higher lows visible since mid-2023.
Pattern: Cup & Handle / Long-term Rectangle breakout.
🚀 Upside Potential
Measured move targets (based on breakout projections):
First Target: ₹620 – ₹650 (20–25% upside)
Second Target: ₹750 – ₹800 (45–50% upside)
Final Target: ₹900 – ₹1000 (80–85% upside)
⚠️ Risks
Profit booking after sharp rallies.
If it fails to sustain above ₹500 support, trend may weaken.
PSU stocks can be volatile due to government policies.
✅ Summary in One Line:
KIOCL is on the verge of an 8-year breakout with strong volumes. Sustaining above ₹500–₹510 opens the gates for ₹620 → ₹750 → ₹900+ in the medium to long term, while downside is protected by ₹450 & ₹400 supports.
BTCUSD 1W chart review• Currently BTC is at ~ USD 123,000 (+1.97%).
• Strong support visible in the area of 113 400 USD and USD 106,800.
• The next resistance is USD 124,500, and the next important is USD 133,500.
2. Trend:
• You can see the growing trend line (orange), which supports increases.
• The weekly candle is green and quite strong - suggests that the demand persists.
3. Medium walking (SMA / EMA):
• SMA 50/200 shows the Golden Cross (EMA CROSS 50/200), which is a long -term bull signal.
• SMA (red) is below the price → pro-rectification signal.
4. RSI (Relative Strength Index):
• Currently approx. 60 → Neutral-BYCZECZE territory.
• Not bought yet (> 70), so there is space for further increases.
5. MacD / Histogram:
• The histogram begins to grow green - growth moment is growing.
• This confirms that the buyers are taking over the initiative.
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📈 Scenarios:
1. Bull (greater likelihood at the moment)
• If BTC pierces and stays above USD 124,500, the goal may be USD 133,500.
• Breaking over 133K opens the road even to around 140k.
2. Bear
• If the price does not pierce 124.5k and reject the resistance, it may drop to $ 113,400.
• Punction below this zone will give a signal of declines up to USD 106,800.
GBPAUD finding support on Weekly 50SMASimilar to the previous post regarding GBPJPY, the British pound is finding support at the weekly 50SMA (overlayed on this 4H chart) after a long sell off indicated in the RSI. Cautiously bullish on GBPAUD considering recent strength in the Aussie dollar due to gold hitting new ATHs (and commodities rallying in general). Approach this with expectations of lots of rejections and chop as price action breaks through the daily moving averages wedged between the 50 and 20 weekly SMA (daily and weekly SMAs overlayed on the 4H chart). This could potentially bounce to retest the weekly 20 currently at 2.06 area.
NZD/USD Symmetrical Triangle, Breakout Decision Point AheadThe price is consolidating inside a symmetrical triangle pattern formed by:
• Trendline Resistance (upper line)
• Trendline Support (lower line)
• The apex (where the two lines converge) is marked as the Decision Point. This is where price is likely to break out, either upward or downward.
Key Observations
1. Break of Structure (BOS):
• A previous structural break is marked on the chart, showing where the price had shifted momentum earlier.
2. Decision Point:
• Price is currently trading near 0.58292.
• At this point, a breakout could happen in either direction (up or down).
3. Targets:
• Upside Target: Near 0.58600 (if price breaks above the resistance).
• Downside Target: Near 0.58000 (if price breaks below the support).
Trading Implications
• Bullish Scenario: If price breaks and closes above the trendline resistance, buyers could push towards the 0.58600 level.
• Bearish Scenario: If price breaks and closes below the trendline support, sellers may drive it down to 0.58000.
• Neutral Zone: Until breakout confirmation, price may continue to consolidate inside the triangle.
Summary:
The market is at a decision point. Traders should watch for a confirmed breakout above resistance (for longs) or below support (for shorts) before entering trades.
FARTCOIN | Bullish Setup at Key SupportFARTCOIN has retraced into a key support zone between $0.657 – $0.623, presenting a potential opportunity for a long spot position. This zone has historically acted as a strong base for bullish moves, and price action suggests it may hold once again. The current consolidation near this level could set the stage for a continuation to the upside.
📈 Trade Setup:
Entry Zone: $0.657 – $0.623
Take Profits: $0.7123, $0.758, $0.798
Stop Loss: 4H candle close below $0.623
If momentum builds and buyers reclaim control, these TP levels align with resistance zones from previous rallies. A clean break below $0.623 on a 4H close would invalidate the setup and trigger the stop loss.
GBP/JPY - Range Bound Before Big MovePrice is currently consolidating between a clearly defined Support Zone and Resistance Zone after a strong bearish move.
Support has been respected multiple times, indicating short-term buying interest.
Resistance aligns with a previous supply zone, showing potential rejection or continuation bias.
Two possible scenarios are unfolding:
Bullish Breakout
If price breaks above the resistance zone, it could target the Order Block (OB) above, which is a key supply area from the last strong bearish move.
Break and retest of resistance would confirm bullish structure shift.
Target area: ~199.07
Bearish Continuation
A rejection from resistance could lead to another test of support.
A break below the support zone and the Weak Low would confirm bearish continuation.
Bearish target sits around 197.60 (lower liquidity grab zone).
Key Notes:
Watch for a Change of Character (ChoCH) for confirmation in either direction.
Volume and momentum confirmation will strengthen breakout bias.
Consider OB zone as a potential reversal or mitigation point.
NEAR/USDT – Long Spot Trade Setup | Key Support TestNEAR Protocol (NEAR) is currently testing a strong support level around $2.60–$2.70, which has held multiple times in recent sessions. This zone has shown consistent buying interest, forming a potential base for a bounce or trend reversal. Price action is consolidating just above this support, indicating the bulls are defending this level.
This presents an opportunity for a long spot entry at the current range. The trade idea is based on the assumption that this support will continue to hold, offering a low-risk entry point with favorable upside potential. A confirmation candle or spike in volume could validate the move.
🎯 Take Profit Targets:
• TP1: $3.35 – $3.80
• TP2: $4.40 – $5.00
🛑 Stop Loss: Just below $2.40 to manage downside risk and protect capital in case of a breakdown.
Eur/Usd - Accumulation at Support, Targeting Resistance Price is currently ranging between a defined support zone (purple box) and a resistance zone (green box). After a CHoCH (Change of Character) and a Break of Structure (BOS) earlier, the market is showing signs of accumulating near the support level.
Current Setup:
Price is respecting the support zone (1.17250–1.17300) and attempting to form a bullish structure.
A potential rally could follow from this zone, targeting the resistance zone (1.17500–1.17650), marked as a weak high – suggesting it’s likely to be taken out.
Bullish Scenario:
Entry Zone: Within or just above the support
Target: Resistance zone / Weak high area
Invalidation: Clear breakdown below the support zone
Bias: Bullish while support holds
Key Zones:
Support: 1.17250–1.17300
Resistance (Target): 1.17500–1.17650
This setup favors buying the dip with confirmation signals (e.g., bullish engulfing, reversal patterns).
GBP/JPY - Breakdown 1H🔥 GBP/JPY – 1H Breakdown 🔥
Alright fam, let’s cook this chart 👇
📊 Structure Check
Price has been tanking hard from that 4H supply zone up top.
We formed a lower high (LP S) and then rolled over, continuing bearish structure.
Currently price is consolidating under a descending trendline → looks like it’s coiling for a move.
🎯 Key Zones
Upside liquidity grab: Price could squeeze into that 71% retrace + 15M/1H supply pocket.
🔼 That’s the “snack stop” zone before bigger players slam it.
Downside magnet: We’ve got strong support marked lower (blue zone). That’s the real draw if supply holds.
🛠️ Scenarios
Fakeout Pump → Dump
Price squeezes up into that 71% + supply zone.
Liquidity gets eaten → sellers step in.
Drop straight into strong support.
Direct Breakdown
If no pump happens, this wedge could just crack down.
Same target: strong support area below.
⚖️ Bias
Short-term bullish liquidity sweep possible 🚀
But overall still bearish until strong support proves otherwise.
📝 Game Plan
Watch the 71% + supply combo for rejection entries 🎯
Target the support zone below
Manage risk – don’t chase mid-range chop
⏳ Looks like GBP/JPY wants to bait longs before flushing again. Stay sharp, fam.
BNB/USDT 4h chart review1. Trend and structure
• The price struck the relegation (orange) line, which is a positive signal.
• Currently, the course oscillates around 1007 USDT after reflection from holes ~ 930.
2. Key levels
• Support: 995, 971, 930.
• Resistance: 1026, 1051, 1084.
3. MacD
• The histogram grows, but begins to slightly weaken.
• MacD line still above the signal → slightly bullish signal, but with braking signs.
4. RSI (4H)
• RSI around 55–60 → neutral/bullish, not yet burdened.
5. Simple interpretation
• As long as the course lasts above 995, the upward scenario is possible.
• Breaking above 1026 will open the road to 1051 and 1084.
• decrease below 995 → Risk of retests 971, and later 930.
Ethereum Outlook – Key Levels in Play Amid Market JittersAfter a turbulent week across the crypto space—with volatility even bleeding into traditional equities—it's clear just how fragile sentiment remains. We’re seeing the usual overreactions: every minor selloff triggers calls that the bull market is over, despite the broader structure holding up... for now.
🔍 ETH Technical Outlook
Ethereum is retesting a major support zone between 4000–4200. This area has acted as a springboard before, but if it breaks decisively, it could flip to resistance, introducing more headwinds for bullish momentum.
Still, this may be shaping up as another dip-buying opportunity—if macro conditions remain stable and Bitcoin doesn't lead a broader breakdown.
🧱 Next Support Zone
If 4000–4200 doesn’t hold, the next major support zone is 3200–3300. This aligns with previous accumulation levels and would likely draw interest from larger buyers if price gravitates down there.
🔺 Chart Pattern Watch: Triangle Shift
We’ve been tracking a triangle formation, which now appears to be shifting from a symmetrical triangle to a descending triangle—a change in tone, but not yet a deal-breaker for the bulls.
The longer-term target remains intact: we’re still eyeing the 5700–5800 range, assuming structural support zones continue to hold and volume confirms any breakout.
Will BTC come out of the downward channel?• In the chart you can see how we are close to the upper limit of the downward channel. This is a key signal - if the breaking persists, it may mean a change in the trend.
• We have several support levels from below (marked with red lines):
• 112,238 USD
• USD 108,981
• USD 107,040
• From the top you can see resistance (green lines):
• 115,266 USD (local resistance - the course is just approaching)
• 117 395 USD
• 119 404 USD
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🔹 Medium walking (SMA/EMA)
• You can see EMA Cross 50/200 (yellow label) - a classic signal "Golden Cross" / "Death Cross". It seems that the average is raised recently, which the market often interprets as a signal of a potential change of trend.
• SMA #1 and #2 (red and green lines) - the course tries to stay above the average, which is positive.
• SMA #5 (blue line below) shows long -term support ~ 107k USD.
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🔹 MacD (below)
• The histogram shows reversal - red posts decrease, and the lines (blue and orange) are approaching each other → possible buy signal.
• If the signal line is intersected up, this will be confirmed by the growth moment.
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🔹 RSI (Relative Strength Index)
• RSI is currently around 40-50 →, i.e. a neutral level (neither purchase nor selling).
• It slightly reflects from below, which suggests that there may still be space for further growth before we enter the purchase zone (> 70).
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📌 Summary
• Short -term (1-7 days): it looks like BTC is trying to stand out from the downward trend. If it pierces 115,266 USD and persists above, subsequent goals are 117 395 USD and 119 404 USD.
• Medium -term (weeks): support levels 112K - 108K are key. A decrease below 107k would negate a bull scenario.
• Technical signals: MacD and RSI give the first signs of reflection. The course balances on the border of breaking the trend.
👉 It looks at the beginning of a potential growth movement, but it will be crucial whether BTC will stay above 115K.
US30 - BULLISH MOMENTUM TARGETING FVG AFTER OB REJECTION Price is currently in a clear bullish phase following a strong reaction from the marked Order Block (OB) zone. This OB acted as a high-probability demand area, where institutional buying likely stepped in, reversing the prior bearish move and initiating a shift in market structure. The subsequent price action has formed a series of higher lows and bullish candles, indicating sustained buying pressure and a potential continuation toward the upside.
The next key area of interest is the Fair Value Gap (FVG), which represents an inefficiency in price where no trading occurred. These imbalances are often targeted by institutions to rebalance the market, and price tends to gravitate toward them. In this case, the FVG is positioned just below a well-defined resistance zone, creating a high-probability target for the current bullish move.
Given the lack of immediate overhead resistance before the FVG, and the presence of strong bullish momentum, price is expected to continue climbing until it reaches the FVG zone. Once this area is filled, we may see a reaction or potential rejection, but for now, the structure supports a move upward. Traders should watch for continuation patterns, such as bullish flags or breakouts, as confirmation that price will tap into the FVG before any significant reversal occurs.
ETH/USD - BUILDING MOMENTUM FOR NEXT BULLISH LEGOn the 15-minute ETH/USD chart, we can clearly observe that price action has shifted into a bullish structure after forming a strong impulse move from the lower demand zone. The market respected the higher timeframe liquidity area around 4,140 – 4,150, where buyers stepped in aggressively, creating a solid base for the upward push. From there, a clean series of higher highs and higher lows started to establish, indicating strong bullish momentum in play.
Currently, ETH is respecting the ascending trendline that has been guiding the price upward. Each retest of this trendline has been met with bullish rejections, confirming that buyers remain in control. The price is now consolidating just above the minor supply-turned-demand zone near 4,170, which shows that the previous resistance has flipped into support — a positive sign for continuation.
If the price manages to sustain above this intraday support and trendline, we can expect a potential continuation toward the upside target. Any minor pullback into the demand zone would likely attract buyers again, keeping the bullish structure intact. As long as price stays above the 4,160 zone and does not break below the trendline with strong bearish candles, the bias remains bullish.
Overall, the structure suggests that ETH is preparing for another leg higher, with the projected target in sight. Traders should monitor the price behavior around the support and trendline for confirmation before entering, as clean candle closures above these levels will add confidence to the bullish scenario.
BTC/USDT - BREAKOUT Or BREAKDOWN AHEADThe price is currently trading around the 112,112 USDT level with slight intraday fluctuations. The chart highlights a key horizontal support and resistance (S/R) structure with two red horizontal lines marking these zones.
1. Resistance (R) Zone
The upper red horizontal line, marked as “R,” is acting as a resistance level around the 112,400 USDT region. Price has tested this level multiple times in the recent sessions. A clear breakout above this resistance could signal further bullish continuation.
2. Support (S) Zone
The lower red horizontal line, marked as “S,” is situated around the 111,600 USDT level. This zone has provided a strong demand base for buyers. If the price retraces, this level will act as a critical support.
3. Current Price Action
At the time of observation, Bitcoin is consolidating right above the resistance zone, suggesting a possible breakout attempt. The candlesticks indicate bullish momentum leading into the resistance, with a series of higher lows forming before the test of resistance. This pattern reflects increasing buying pressure.
4. Possible Scenarios
• Bullish Scenario: If the price successfully breaks and holds above the resistance zone (R), it may trigger a move towards the next target to the upside, projected around the 112,800 – 113,200 USDT region. The structure suggests the possibility of forming a bullish continuation pattern, with traders targeting higher resistance levels.
• Bearish Scenario: If the breakout attempt fails and Bitcoin gets rejected at resistance, price could retrace downward. A move below the support zone (S) at 111,600 USDT would likely signal bearish momentum, with the next target projected around the 111,200 – 110,800 USDT range.
5. Market Sentiment
The price action is consolidating in a range-bound structure between support and resistance. This often reflects market indecision before a breakout. A breakout from this range, either above resistance or below support, will provide a clearer directional bias.
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Conclusion:
The BTC/USDT 15-minute chart is currently at a critical juncture. Traders should closely monitor whether Bitcoin sustains above the 112,400 resistance to confirm a bullish breakout, or if it fails and drops back below support at 111,600, signaling bearish continuation. Patience and confirmation of breakout direction are key before entering new trades.
SOL/USDT 1D chart review 1. General trend
• A strong upward trend has been underway since June (orange trend marked).
• Recently, we had a very strong rally to around USD 250, but there was a violent correction.
2. Support and resistance
• resistance:
• USD 214 (local resistance, the market has bounced down here).
• 230 USD (strong resistance).
• USD 250 (peak, main resistance).
• Support:
• USD 193 (here the price is currently fighting).
• 176 USD (another strong support - earlier consolidation).
• USD 158 (key support, fracture could mean a change in the trend).
3. STOCHASTIC RSI
• Currently in the sales zone (nearly 0) → may suggest that the market is approaching a local hole and a potential reflection.
4. Scenarios
• Bullish:
If support is supported at 193 USD, possible reflection in the direction of USD 214, and after breaking this level - an attack on USD 230.
• Bearish:
If the price pierces $ 193 down, the next goal is 176 USD, and below even USD 158.
5. Summary
• The market is in correction after strong height.
• At the moment, the key level is 193 USD. Maintaining this support can be reflected.
• However, breaking 193 will open the road to 176.
• RSI shows the sale → short -term relief.
BTC: Reclaim 110.4–111.1k or lose 108.7k — the pivot__________________________________________________________________________________
Market Overview
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BTC is in a corrective phase after the 117–124k top, still holding the HTF demand at 108,713–107,286. Price is highly level‑driven, with a mild risk‑off tone capping rebounds near 110.4–111.1k.
Momentum: 📉 Slightly bearish below 110,402–111,135, with a low‑range structure holding above 108,713.
Key levels:
• Resistances (1H/4H/1D) : 110,402–111,135 (major lid), 114,471, 117,971.
• Supports (12H/1D/1W) : 108,713–107,286 (demand zone), 98,330 (weekly base).
Volumes: Very high on the sell‑leg in 4H/2H/1H; normal to moderate on 1D.
Multi-timeframe signals: 1D/12H filters stay up, while 6H/4H/2H lean down; 1H/30m/15m show tactical long windows on support. A reclaim of 110.4–111.1k would align TFs higher.
Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: Reading NEUTRAL SELL → confirms capped rebounds and slightly contradicts the HTF up filter.
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Trading Playbook
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Strategic stance: HTF trend still up but fading; stay opportunistic and disciplined around key levels.
Global bias: Neutral‑bearish below 110,402–111,135; bias invalidated if a daily close above 111,135 holds.
Opportunities:
• Reclaim buy: Go long on breakout + held retest of 110,402 toward 111,135, targeting 114,471 next.
• Tactical sell: Fade clean rejections at 110,402/111,135 if risk‑off persists, targeting 109.0k then 108,713.
• Breakdown sell: Short confirmed loss of 108,713 (≥2 closes + failed retest) toward 107,286.
Risk zones / invalidations:
• A break of 108,713 likely opens 107,286 and raises downside momentum risk.
• Reclaim of 111,135 invalidates tactical shorts and unlocks 114,471.
Macro catalysts (Twitter, Perplexity, news):
• PCE in line: supports “higher‑for‑longer” and a firm USD → mild headwind.
• Fed “data‑dependent”: restrictive but flexible; market guided by levels.
• Spot ETFs: negative daily flow, 7‑day near neutral → cautious near term, MT adoption intact.
Action plan:
• Long (reclaim): Entry 110,450–110,650 / Stop < 108,713 / TP1 111,135, TP2 114,471, TP3 117,971 / R:R ~2–3.
• Short (rejection): Entry 110,100–110,300 / Stop > 111,135 / TP1 109,000, TP2 108,713, TP3 107,286 / R:R ~1.8–2.5.
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Multi-Timeframe Insights
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Overall, HTFs remain constructive while MTF/intraday manage a base‑building range under nearby resistance.
1D/12H: Up filters softening; 108,713–107,286 defended; a reclaim above 111,135 would target 114,471.
6H/4H/2H: Down sequences with notable sell volume; 110,402 caps rebounds; loss of 108,713 likely opens 107,286.
1H/30m/15m: Tactical long windows on support (absorption/wicks), yet need a sustained push >110,402; otherwise the low range persists.
Major divergences/confluences: HTF support confluence (108,713–107,286) vs mild risk‑off impulse; clearing 110.4–111.1k aligns TFs higher.
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Macro & On-Chain Drivers
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Macro is slightly constraining but not shocking, while on‑chain/flows set the tactical pivot.
Macro events:
• PCE in line and firm USD: reinforce “higher‑for‑longer” → mild risk‑off bias.
• Fed data‑dependent: restrictive yet flexible; elevated sensitivity to levels.
• New US tariffs: potential near‑term inflation impulse → possible risk‑off spillovers.
Bitcoin analysis:
• STH Cost Basis ~109.5–111k: a key psychological/technical pivot; fast regain fits bull‑market behavior if held.
• Options/futures: post‑expiry “cleanup” and positioning reset; snapbacks likely if levels are reclaimed.
• ETFs: daily outflows, 7‑day near neutral; MT adoption intact, but caution short term.
On-chain data:
• Sentiment washed out (low Fear & Greed) with improving hashrate: structurally supportive backdrop.
• Stablecoins: recent issuance indicates “dry powder,” not guaranteed to deploy.
Expected impact: Without a reclaim of 110.4–111.1k, mild risk‑off weighs; above it, MT/flow confluence favors a squeeze toward ~114.5k.
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Key Takeaways
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BTC is basing in a low range atop HTF supports, with a mild macro headwind.
- Overall trend: neutral‑bearish below 110.4–111.1k, yet 12H/1D filters remain up.
- Most relevant setup: reclaim buy above 110.4–111.1k toward 114.5k; conversely, loss of 108.7k targets 107.3k.
- One key macro: PCE in line and a data‑dependent Fed keep a mild risk‑off tone.
Let the levels lead: wait for a confirmed reclaim above 110.4–111.1k or a breakdown of 108.7k before committing risk. ⚖️
4H IDEA FOR GBPJPY 26TH SEP, 2025.The British pound is still moving up, but choppy on the higher timeframes, but the trend is clear but more on the lower time frames. Price may continue higher in the coming session, but we sit on our hands and watch as my Bia is based on a bullish move.
As usual, my calls or analysis are based on what we see, the current Bias, and from a probability standpoint, meaning that this projection may be or may not be validated, so tread carefully, and as usual, this is not financial advice, trade responsibly
GBP/USD - Multi Timeframe Forecast🕰 Weekly View
Weekly is looking toppy near that 1.38–1.39 rejection zone.
Big weekly BOS already in play → momentum pointing down.
Liquidity targets sit way lower at 1.28–1.29 (weekly demand + swing range).
📉 Daily Structure
Daily broke structure → now printing lower highs.
A daily supply zone sits heavy overhead near 1.36–1.37.
If sellers keep pressing, the magnet is clear: 1.30–1.31 daily demand (stacked with fib + HV buy zone).
Any bounces are likely just snack stops for liquidity 🍟 before rolling lower.
⏱ 4H Breakdown
Price is hunting between two short-term options:
1️⃣ Option 1: Tap into the 4H supply around 1.3450–1.3500, reject hard → continuation down.
2️⃣ Option 2: Push a bit higher into the high-volume sell zone at 1.3550–1.3600 → then dump to new lows.
Below, key demand sits at 1.3200 → 1.3000, so that’s the landing pad 🎯.
🎯 Summary
Bias : Bearish until proven otherwise.
Weekly → Failed top, heading toward deeper demand.
Daily → Lower highs into supply, eyes on 1.30.
4H → Watch for rejection at sell zones before shorting.
Big picture → GBP/USD looks like it’s loading up for a multi-week selloff 📉 unless buyers defend hard at 1.32.






















