Bitcoin Swing Reinforcement, Strategic Stops Below 115k__________________________________________________________________________________
Technical Overview – Summary Points
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Momentum : Strong bullish trend on all timeframes above 1h (MTFTI dark/gray, “Strong Up” confirmed).
Supports/Resistances :
Key supports: $104,000–$110,000 (HTF), $116,000–$118,000 (STF).
Strategic resistances: $120,000–$122,000 (HTF), ATH $125,000.
Volumes : No excess, healthy and regular flows.
Risk On / Risk Off Indicator : Strong BUY across all higher timeframes, US tech sector momentum is bullish.
ISPD DIV : Neutral across all TFs, no extreme behavioral signals.
Multi-TF behavior : Bullish confirmation down to 1H; neutral/profit-taking mood on 15min–5min.
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Strategic Summary
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Overall bias : Strong bullish as long as the $116,000 zone holds.
Opportunities : Swing entries on pullbacks $116,000–$118,000; first take-profits at $122,000–$125,000. Potential extension up to $130,000 if on-chain momentum persists.
Risk zones : Below $115,000 = invalidation, structural downside risk (swing closure recommended).
Macro catalysts : No imminent major macro event, structurally mild volatility. Geopolitical hand neutral for now.
Risk management : Mandatory stop $114,800–$115,000, current risk/reward >2:1 on the bounce zone.
Action plan : Buy on clean retracement above 116k–118k, actively track STH profit-taking, reactively adjust if major S/R clusters break.
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Multi-Timeframe Analysis
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1D : Supports 104k–110k, major resistance 120k–125k. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator STRONG BUY. ISPD DIV neutral, volumes regular. MTFTI Strong Up.
12H : S/R 117.5k–119.3k, strong support 115k–116k. Risk-on sectorial momentum active. Volumes unaltered, confirmed uptrend.
6H : Resistance 119.3k, support 116k. Still strong buy, healthy flows, technical uptrend confirmed. Bounce ops 116k–117k.
4H : Support 117.5k–118.2k. Resistance 120k–121k. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator only buy, general up. No abnormal volume.
2H : Support 118k/116k, resistance 120k. Sectorial momentum intact, uptrend solid, best scalping/retest at 118k.
1H : Support 118k, res. at 119.5k then 120k. Sectorial momentum strong, no volume/ISPD excess.
30min : Support 118k, resistance 119k/119.8k. Slight momentum drop, context healthy. Fast entries on rebounds.
15min : Support 118.2k, resistance 119.3k. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator neutral. MTFTI micro-volatile. Volumes steady.
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Decision Synthesis
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Confluences : Bullish alignment across HTFs, strong sector momentum, healthy volumes, no behavioral excess.
Divergences : Slight short-term fading on lower TFs. Adjustment signal, not a trend reversal.
On-chain : All holders in profit, early STH profit-taking but no structural top. Potential extension 122–130k$ before local exhaustion zone.
Risks : Drop below 115k would invalidate the swing dynamic. Geopolitical stress to be monitored, but little short-term transmission.
Strategy : Buyers to reinforce between 116k–118k, secure partials above 122k. Strict stop below 115k.
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