The Control TrapNOTE – This is a post on mindset and emotion. It is not a trade idea or strategy designed to make you money. My intention is to help you preserve your capital, focus, and composure so you can trade your own system with clarity and confidence.
You’ve spent months - maybe years designing your system.
You know its logic.
You’ve backtested the data.
You trust the probabilities.
And yet… mid-trade, something shifts.
The candles stall.
The pullback looks deeper than usual.
You feel the muscles in your stomach tighten.
Your hand hovers over the mouse.
Maybe I’ll just move the stop a bit tighter.
Maybe I’ll exit early, just this once.
Maybe I’ll skip this signal - it doesn’t look right today.
It feels like precision.
Like prudence.
Like control.
But look closer.
Every time you interfere, you reinforce the belief that you can’t trust yourself.
And that belief quietly eats away at your confidence - trade by trade, decision by decision.
What’s really happening:
When you second-guess your own rules, it’s rarely about the system.
It’s about safety.
Your mind is trying to avoid the discomfort of uncertainty - that raw, restless sensation that comes with surrendering control to probabilities.
Your body feels it first.
The quickened pulse.
The micro-tension in your shoulders.
The eyes darting to every tick, searching for reassurance.
You’re not refining your edge - you’re soothing anxiety.
The irony is that this constant adjustment creates the very instability you’re trying to avoid.
The more you step in, the more you teach your brain that it can’t be trusted to hold steady.
And so the cycle repeats - tighter control, lower trust, higher stress.
How to shift it:
Next time you feel the urge to tweak or touch the trade - pause.
Notice the emotion under the surface.
Is it fear? Doubt? A need to be right?
Let yourself feel that pull without acting on it.
Remind yourself:
“I built this system for a reason. My job now is to execute, not interfere.”
Try sitting through one trade, fully hands-off.
Let the outcome be what it is.
And observe what happens inside you, not just on the chart.
That awareness is where emotional control begins.
Trading well isn’t just about the quality of your system
It’s about the quality of your state while running it.
If this article resonated, check out the post I’d written on System Hopping. Link below:
Systems
Stock feedback loopStock market is a adaptive system or a stock, with feedback loops (for inflow, outflow function). Where nobody knows the outcome or future, but feedbacks (corrections or resistance) gives tells (makes inflows or outflows). Without a common leader.
Economists think in models (price is the result of supply-demand, or inflow-outflow) that helps to explain system behavior (short term moves), but models are just ideas to explain complex world (models work until they dont). System thinkers study the stock not aggregate behavior .
Looking at markets trough perspective of "eco system" helps better understand the drivers or moving forces?
The most common malpractice in all of Trading: Back-testingGiven ANY in- or out-of-sample time series, including purely random, synthetic data, anyone can generate (inflate) ANY Sharpe Ratio by repeatedly applying different trading or investment strategies to the same time series sample!
By definition, purely random data has no discernible structure. Consequently, no method can exist to predict such a sequence - I.e., Sharpe Ratio = 0 must hold in all instances.
Yet, ... See main graph!
In the past It has been shown just how easy it is to generate Sharpe Ratios of 4, 5 or even >6, on any data, including on purely random, synthetic time series data when in fact, the only possible value in those instances should be S.R. = 0.
As a matter of fact, this misleading (self-defeatists?) practice is so common and wide spread in finance and trading that the American Statistical Association considers it "unethical" (American Statistical Association ). (More importantly, it is a remarkably expensive way to fool oneself.)
The above stems from applying the same rejection threshold for the null hypothesis under multiple testing will grossly underestimate the probability of obtaining a false positive.
Unlike in the "other sciences", there is no "replication crisis" in finance or trading, simply because such checks don't even exist there - since those would be impossible to carry out. (Is that why the only two kinds of academic papers which never get revised or retracted are written in the fields of Finance and Theology?)
The bottom line;
In the common case of testing a trading or investment system, given a set of out-of-sample time series, one MUST increase the rejection threshold for the null hypothesis in proportion to the number of times ("peeks") such tests are carried out! (Good luck fooling yourself that way!)
Anything less is just simple curve-fitting!
For more in-depth explorations:
Marcos López de Prado, Michael J. Lewis
codemacher.com
casa skyrocketCasa just hit the resistance at 7$ because Erizon make ~$40 million equity investment in Casa Common Stock but be careful at 7$ price rage we already hit the resistance let see if Casa successfully break it or we see correction here.
Retail gamblers found the holy grail... To be a rogue trader!I just had a little look into "robots". I've known from reading some of the BIS reports that Forex quants mostly vanished after 2008.
But I wanted to go on these FX retail sites that are heavy in the "automated" very short term "trading", which is not actually day trading as they run these programs 24/24 there is no "end of the day so let's stay out of the market for 2/3 of the time to compound profits faster" 😄
Here is how I expect an exchange with an "automated" day gambler would go:
My day gambling strategy works muahahaha it does well on backtest for 1 years.
Me: "That's simply because the pair you tested it on has been trending for 1 year you numbskull"
Well you just have to apply it in the right conditions!
Me: "With your crystal ball? If you know what they are, why not just manually take 1 trade?"
Aha! Because of the power of compounding! Rather than risk 1% to make 5% I will make 2% 25 times.
Me: "Your brain on holiday? Forgot you would also compound spread costs and losses?"
Well forget it, if you rly zoom in and can't see anything it looks magical! Doesn't depend on the 1 year trend!
Me: "Then it depends on the 1 month trend?"
No! no matter what you say I have an idiotic answer!
Usually starts with "You just have to"!
I'll throw idiotic answers at you until you get bored and give up on me because I am hopeless!
Me: "Well done I give up" "Thanks for the laugh though" 😂
Take a good friend of mine, UDNCNY:
I can tell you for a fact that an "automated strategy" of the kind I am going to describe would work. Don't even need to backtest it.
The strategy is as follow: Take about any indicator (RSI, Bollinger Bands, etc). When the price goes down (< 30 RSI or lower band) then goes back up to the middle (RSI 50 or center of Bollingers) you sell. And of course the same on the opposite with buying.
Yes that strategy would work, we can quickly eyeball it:
In practice this is not even what they do. A risk-to-reward ratio as enormous as puny 1-to-1.8? That's like 1% of retail. Never!
What they do is have super distant stops, or no stops. And quickly by looking at USDCNY you understand how they can win.
Shorts at a loss are all in a pullback, and the price never goes very far, so by just waiting they will turn into winners at some point.
In my example which wasn't the best part of the USDCNY trend, there are 6 short signals, and 3 longs.
The longs that are not winners quickly, will "never" recover so they'll take a loss on a far away stop here.
But some longs are winners, and most to all shorts are winners, the smaller the reward and bigger distance the stop is, the close to 100% winrate it gets on shorts.
To sum up, with their ridiculous high winrate strategies applied in the right conditions:
- The vast majority of trades are going to be winners no matter what
- Maybe 1/3 of the losers are in the wrong direction and will be big bags
- Maybe 2/3 of the "losers" are in the correct direction and eventually will recover
These troll retail gamblers are zooming in a flower to the molecule level and wondering why it suddenly went invisible. Must be magic!
They have no clue. There is an insect on the flower, that's why you can't see the flower molecule anymore you numbskull.
This indicator strategy I mentioned works on a trend, how about a nice thick really gross sideways?
Constantly stopped! But have no worries for the retail gamblers have a trick up their sleeve!
With a very wide stop such as the risk is 20 times the size of the reward you will keep winning! Hurrah! Martingale!
And then it will start trending in the wrong direction and the clowns will get wiped out.
And I can assure you, this happens more often than 1 in 20 times 🙂
Now we are getting to my favorite part: The holy grail in the title.
I went to myfxbook take a look at system. By default they show you only the ones with positive returns, and many of those are very recent.
No no no no no. let me change that filter to at least 1 year of activity, and any returns.
What's this? More than half show red returns? Oh my that's a lot of -99% 🙂
Most people quit before getting to -99.
How about I pick one of the "winners"? Weird, why are their open trades private?
Another one. Private. Another. Private. And another, private again!
Oh I found one! TrumpBot. Interesting, that's a lot of red sir.
70 open trades, almost all in the red. USDCAD, EURUSD, USDJPY.
All EURUSD are sells, and all the ones ones are buys.
He took plenty of short term trades (well long term now as he's been holding the bag for a while) LONG on the USDOLLAR. Oh no!
Remember USDCNH? Well these bags go back to early in the USD downtrend. He's been holding for nearly a year 🙂
L - O - S - E - R
Just takes 1 L to wipe out these clowns. They can hack some site to make losses vanish, and obviously the dum dums that buy these kinds of systems are too lazy to really do their research so they never notice it, but if it's real money IT'S REALLY GONE.
There are some guys that have been struggling to make money for 20 years and have sold robots for 10.
Is it cruel if I... roll myself on the floor while I laugh to tears? 🤣
What about all these "private" systems? They're holding bags too?
There is a name for this. It starts with an F. And ends with raud.
It is the rogue traders specialty.
They do a bit more (pros), call them "hedges", manipulate accounting for example,
take opposite positions to cut their losses while keeping them secret (unrealized)...
Here is a regulator release on famous Karen Bruton, known as "the supertrader".
She was made famous by Tom Sosnoff that had her appear on his show.
The SEC fined her and a partner to over a million dollar. She lost way more than that. No jail.
www.sec.gov
Tom Sosnoff is a market maker from the 80s that created a popular trading platform that he sold,
and now teaches people to sell option spreads. With no edge or risk it will return little money, like 1%.
Karen the Supertrader got superresults by leveraging that strat. Which causes it to LOSE money.
Looks like Karen couldn't figure out high school level maths, nowadays this got to be 2nd uni year,
the levels has collapsed it's amazing, my sister aiming for med school doesn't even HAVE math classes
since 16 year old, science with no maths, genius government.
"But kids don't like it", ye so let's make them even dumber than they already are!
Yes but Karen convinced investors, and even Tom Sosnoff and his colleagues, that she made money!
Ye, just like all the myfxbook trolls. She never closed the losers.
Plenty of realized gains, and much larger unrealized losses. Pathetic.
And the flip side?
Warren Buffett has held unrealized gains on Coca-Cola since 1987.
Never held losses very long. Ever. Some uni nerd looked at it.
We know because he has to report all positions.
Losers (and crooks) hold losers. Winners hold winners. That simple.
867 China Medical Systems Breakout / Long IdeaHello Tradingviewians,
CMS has been in a long consolidation to digest lowering growth rates. Additionally it has been under fire by short sellers, alleging CMS of faking revenue numbers.
Should the numbers be genuine, and factors like consistent insider buying suggest it, CMS represents serious value at this point.
Technically, a two year downtrend collides with the support line of the superordinate uptrend. Should ladder win, a short squeeze may follow to previous interim highs. After a phase of returning confidence, all time highs could be reached again.
This is my first published technically supported investment idea.
Let me know what you think.
Thanks!
BR
Community Health Systems Overvalued Those who have been following Community Health Systems since the firm's stock tumbled in October 2016 following the $7.6B merger with HMA may be wondering if the hospital giant has found its footing after three consecutive quarters of being EPS positive, rallying stock prices to a 52-week high record of $11.04/share. Today, I am here to tell you that this stock is very much overpriced compared to the firm's current market value.
Highlights (Quarter by Quarter Fundamental Analysis)
Short-term assets such as Cash and Cash equivalence have increased again by 17% to 1.8B, while receivables and inventory have decreased, signaling that Community Health Systems could be improving their asset turnover or we will see a decrease in net income next quarter. Total assets have slightly increased while debts have slightly decreased resulting in a 2% decrease in debt-to-assets, however, the firm has continued the trend of financing assets with more debt with a 5% increase in debt-to-equity from 28.1% to 29.5%. CYH also maintains an enterprise value far greater than their market cap value. CYH has continued the trend of cutting SGA expenses. Although we see a reduction in FCF, it remains positive.
Using the DCF model, we have a fair-market-value of about $6.30/share.
(One-year Chart using Technical Analysis)
Upon reviewing the charts, we will most likely see a decline in the stock's price. The RSI and MACD are bearish while the price is testing the 20 EMA. Analyzing the volume, we are seeing that the bulls are starting to lose momentum.
Short/put - $5.70 (low confidence) to $6.30 (high confidence)
Rekor Systems, new lower high or a much higher swingOk, this stock is very promising. This will go to around 3.50, when it does watch it very carefully because it might swing from there to $10, if the market looks like shit I would sell it at the trendline I drew. If market is bullish, hold your bags, even though im presenting the weekly, watch the daily for your exit.
Unisys: Long-term Sell opportunity.UIS made a massive +60% weekly rise after it agreed to sell its federal government contracting division to SAIC for $1.2 billion. The result technically, was an extremely overbought 1D chart (RSI = 80.509, MACD = 0.480, ADX = 39.766) with the price approaching the 21.00 Resistance (Since September 2018).
There is an interesting technical pattern when the RSI hits its 81.500 - 83.000 Resistance Zone after the formation of a Golden Cross. The price of the stock makes a top, a few days after the RSI hits that Resistance level. What follows after is a strong and lengthy decline (around 1 year) towards the 6.45 - 6.70 Support Zone.
This pattern appears to be cyclical and has been in effect since 2016. Since Unisys' earnings are end of February (2020) we may be seeing that top then near the 21.00 Resistance. Our advice to sell then and take profit on any level you feel comfortable towards the 6.70 Support.
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