Get started

Tariffs

Gold Poised to Rise on Looming Russia Sanctions!!Hey Traders, above is a breakdown of the current technical and fundamental setup for Gold, with a focus on key support zones and the macro landscape that could drive further upside. From a technical standpoint, the first major support area to watch is around 3,334, which previously acted as a strong resistance level. Now that price has broken above it, we could see this zone retested as a support — a classic breakout-retest scenario that may offer a potential bounce opportunity. The second key zone is located near 3,311, a historically significant support/resistance level. What makes this level even more critical is its confluence with the primary ascending trendline, reinforcing its importance as a structural support in case of a deeper retracement. On the fundamental side, gold continues to benefit from its role as a safe-haven asset, especially amid rising geopolitical and economic tensions. There are two major catalysts in play right now: Escalating trade tensions, particularly around new tariffs. Markets are pricing in a high baseline tariff risk of 15%, which adds a layer of uncertainty and supports defensive assets like gold. Mounting geopolitical pressure on Russia, with the U.S. expected to announce secondary sanctions this week. These could further disrupt global markets and drive demand for hard assets. In summary, gold is positioned well both technically and fundamentally. If price holds above the mentioned support zones, we could see renewed bullish momentum in the sessions ahead. Keep an eye on developments related to trade policy and sanctions, they could be key drivers of the next move.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by JoeChampion
20
Calm Before a StormSince the post-COVID period, we have not seen such a gentle and continuous uptrend. This phenomenon reminds me of the market before the COVID meltdown. How do I going to interpret this "Gentle & Continuous Uptrend" move? My answer: Cautiously bullish Back then, market was cautiously bullish because COVID seemed to be contagious. It has triggered. Now, market is cautiously bullish because tariffs appear to be deepening inflation. With slowing job numbers, this is becoming a bigger concern. Will it trigger? Mirco Nasdaq Futures and Options Ticker: MNQ Minimum fluctuation: 0.25 index points = $0.50 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by konhow
1
$INTC - Best in the sector against Trump tariffsIntel is a semiconductor technology giant, renowned for its x86 processors that dominate the CPU segment, top revenue in Q2 2025 came from PC chips (Client Computing Group, ~$7.9B) and server/AI chips (Data Center & AI, ~$3.9B) . Other revenue includes foundry services ($4.4B) and legacy businesses ($1.1B). But, for the last 4 years the company has experienced one disaster after another: - Loss of Market Share & Intensified Competition vs AMDs Ryzen and NVIDIA AI GPUs has been major drivers for last 4 years of decline. - Gross margin dropped to around 38–39% in 2024—a steep fall from pre‑pandemic levels above 60%, while NVIDIA maintained margins above 75%. - Intel perpetually lagged in transitioning to advanced nodes (7 nm, 5 nm), resulting in costly delays and reduced competitiveness . - Credit rating downgrade: In August 2025, Fitch downgraded Intel’s credit rating from BBB+ to BBB (negative outlook) due to weak demand and deteriorating profitability . S&P had already downgraded Intel to BB+, and Moody's also cut its rating in 2024 . Recent events and price action show its time for a buy at these prices. - Spin-off of Network & Edge (NEX) group: Intel announced the spin-off of its Network and Edge Group (NEX) into an independent entity focused on critical communications and networks, seeking external investors while retaining a major stake . - Workforce reduction and factory cancellations: Intel confirmed layoffs of ~24,000 employees (~15% of workforce) and cancellation of chip plant projects in Germany and Poland . New CEO Lip-Bu Tan plans to cut the headcount to ~75,000 by year-end 2025 . - Executive departures and internal reorganization: Three corporate VPs (Kaizad Mistry, Ryan Russell, Gary Patton) announced retirement from manufacturing operations amid deep restructuring . Intel also cut its manufacturing capacity planning and engineering teams as part of an efficiency-driven reorganization . - Recent key products/services: Intel launched new Xeon 6 CPUs for AI workloads (e.g. Xeon 6776P) and is preparing Panther Lake CPUs (PCs) for 2025 . It also began 18A node production in Arizona and sold part of its Mobileye stake (~$922M) to boost liquidity . Price/sales: Intel (0.80), AMD (10.3), NVIDIA (29.6), QCOM (3.68) Wrap-Up Intel's last four years have been marked by a series of structural, competitive, and strategic challenges—ranging from manufacturing delays to margin erosion and intense pressure from rivals like AMD and NVIDIA. Yet, the tide may be turning. With decisive actions like major cost-cutting initiatives, new AI-focused products, and progress in advanced node production, Intel is signaling a strategic pivot. Trading at a deep discount relative to peers based on the price-to-sales ratio, the stock reflects much of the past negativity. For investors seeking a long-term turnaround play in the semiconductor sector, now could be the moment to re-evaluate Intel’s potential. Let’s see if this chip giant can turn the corner. Cheers! Pablin
NASDAQ:INTCLong
by Pablin000
7
Tariffs, NZ unemployment, and rate cuts: Highlights for the weekAfter a packed calendar last week, this one looks lighter—but there are still key events across major economies likely to drive FX market movement. India Tariffs and Oil Prices U.S. President Donald Trump has announced plans to raise tariffs on Indian imports, citing India’s continued purchase and resale of Russian oil. The White House rightly claims this undermines sanctions and helps fund the war in Ukraine. India’s Ministry of External Affairs called the move “unjustified and unreasonable.” New Zealand Jobs Data — Wednesday New Zealand’s Q2 unemployment rate is expected to rise from 5.1% to 5.3%, the highest level since late 2015. With inflation back within the RBNZ’s 1–3% target range, a soft labour print could provide the final justification for a rate cut at the next policy meeting. Bank of England Rate Decision — Thursday The BoE is widely expected to cut its policy rate by 25 basis points this week, responding to slowing economic momentum despite ongoing inflation concerns. Traders will closely watch Governor Bailey’s remarks to gauge whether this marks the start of a broader easing cycle or a single adjustment.
by BlackBull Markets
EURUSD: tariffs impact?The previous week was a very intensive one when it comes to US macro data. Certainly, the most important weekly event was the FOMC meeting, where the Fed left interest rates unchanged at current levels. As per information by Fed Chair Powell, the economy is in a solid condition. Growth is at a moderate pace, with some decrease due to decrease in consumer spending. Although inflation remains relatively near to the targeted level of 2%, still, there are some indications of its modest pick-up, as a reflection of implemented tariffs. The Fed will continue further to balance interest rates based on “the incoming data, the evolving outlook and the balance of risks”. The full effects of implemented tariffs is to be seen in the future period, but there are Fed expectations that these effects might be a one-time effect on inflation. Fed Chair Powell did not provide a clear answer regarding the potential cut of interest rates in September. On the other hand, the bulk of important macro data was released during the previous week, providing some insight to investors that the economy is starting to see the effects of tariffs, but also increasing their expectations that the rate cut might occur in September. The week started with JOLTs Job Openings data for June, which reached 7.437M and were lower from expected 7,55M. The GDP Growth Rate estimate for Q2 is 3% for the quarter, which was better from forecasted 2,4%. The PCE Price Index in June reached 0,3% for the month and 2,6% for the year. At the same time, the core PCE was also standing at 0,3% in June. Personal Income increased by 0,3% in June, while Personal Spending also reached 0,3% in the same period. Huge weekly surprises were the Non-farm payrolls which were increased by 73K in July, well below market estimate of 110K. The unemployment rate modestly increased to the level of 4,2% in July from 4,1% posted previously. Friday brought the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment final for July at the level of 61,7 which was fully in line with market expectations. The five years inflation expectations were further decreased to the level of 3,4% from previous 4%. Data posted for the Euro Zone include the GDP Growth rate estimate for Q2 of 0,1% for the quarter and 1,4% on a yearly basis. Both figures were higher from estimated 0% q/q and 1,2% y/y. The GDP Growth Rate in Germany in Q2 was standing in the negative territory of -0,1% for the quarter and +0,4% on a yearly basis. The inflation rate in Germany preliminary for July was standing at 0,3% for the month and 2% y/y. The inflation rate flash in July in the Euro Zone was 2%, just a bit higher from market estimate of 1,9%. The core inflation reached 2,3%. The week full of important macro data guaranteed higher volatility in the value of the U.S. Dollar. During the first half of the week, markets favored the USD, which reached the highest value against the euro at 1,14. However, Friday trading session and the release of surprisingly weak NFP data, brought the value of currency pair back toward the 1,1586 level. The RSI modestly touched the level of 31 and swiftly turned back toward the 48. Clear oversold market side has not been reached on this occasion. The MA 50 slowed down its divergence from MA200, but with a still large distance between the two lines, the cross is not in the store for some time. Markets will use the week ahead to digest all the data posted during the previous week. For the US there are no currently important data scheduled for a release, in which sense, market moves could be much calmer. During the previous week, the support line at 1,14 has been tested, however, the 1,16 resistance is pending clear testing. In this sense, it is possible that the market will start the week ahead with a move toward the 1,16 level, heading toward 1,650 eventually 1,1680. At this moment on charts there is a lower probability for 1,17 levels. A move toward the down side is also probable, where 1,15 is currently marked on charts. Important news to watch during the week ahead are: EUR: Retail Sales in June in the Euro Zone, Balance of Trade in June in Germany, Industrial Production in June in Germany, USD: ISM Services PMI in July.
by XBTFX
Canada's GDP contracts, US nonfarm payrolls misses forecastThe Canadian dollar continues to lose ground against its US counterpart and is trading at two-month lows. In the European session, the Canadian dollar is trading at 1.3875, down 0.13% on the day. USD/CAD has risen for six straight days, climbing 1.9% during that time. US nonfarm payrolls for July were softer than expected at 73 thousand, compared to the forecast of 110 thousand. The June report was revised sharply downwards to 14 thousand from an initial 147 thousand. Canada's GDP posted a small decline of 0.1% m/m in May, matching the market estimate. This followed an identical reading in April, as the economy is essentially treading water. A drop in retail trade was a significant factor in the weak GDP reading, particularly in motor vehicles and parts. The decline in GDP in April and May can be squarely blamed on the trade war with the US, which has put a chill in economic activity. The markets are expecting a slight improvement in June, with an estimate of a 0.1% gain. The Bank of Canada held the benchmark rate at 2.75% on Thursday for a third consecutive meeting. The rate statement noted that US trade policy remains "unpredictable" and Governor Macklem reiterated this at his press conference, saying that "some level of uncertainty will continue" until the US and Canada reach a trade agreement. Meanwhile, the trade war between the two sides is heating up. President Trump announced on Thursday that the US was slapping 35% tariffs on Canadian products, effective Aug. 1. The new tariff will not apply to goods covered under the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement. Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney said he was "disappointed" with the US decision and vowed that "Canadians will be our own best customer". These are brave words, but Carney will be under pressure to reach a deal with the US, as 75% of Canadian exports are shipped to the US and Canada can ill-afford a protracted trade war with its giant southern neighbor.
by OANDA
What a turnaround on copper futuresManipulation? Smells like it, but of course, this is just the market we are currently living in. Let's dig in. MARKETSCOM:COPPER COMEX:HG1! Let us know what you think in the comments below. Thank you. 75.2% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK. Cryptocurrency CFDs and spread bets are restricted in the UK for all retail clients.
C
by Marketscom
USDCHF Signals Wave 3 With Double Bottom!OANDA:USDCHF has not only formed a Double Bottom Pattern but also may be generating a potential Elliot Impulse Wave! Bulls are giving the April & June Lows of .8038 - .8088, another go for a second time today after surpassing the first attempted High created July 17th to break above the level. So far Price today has broken above July 17th Highs and if Bulls are able to hold this level, this would Confirm: 1) A Breakout of the Double Bottom 2) Wave 3 continuing the Impulse Wave in the Elliot Wave Theory! The Higher Low @ .79106 created on July 25th, broke the downtrend structure as a 78.6% retracement of the Lower Low @ .78719 created July 1st which was a new 14 Year Low, finishing Wave 2 and initiating Wave 3 of the Impulse Wave. The Extension of Wave 3 typically will end at the 1.236% or 1.618% level which gives us 2 potential Price Targets to start: Price Target 1) .81479 - 1.236% Price Target 2) .82213 - 1.618% Once Wave 3 has ended, we will look for opportunities at the Wave 4 - Wave 5 juncture!
Long
by Novi_Fibonacci
Why Are Markets Rising Despite the Tariffs?Because of the 1) Set timeline on finalizing the tariff rates and 2) The ongoing negotiations, They aimed at striking a balanced deal between the U.S. and its trading partners. The Liberation Day tariffs were announced on 2nd April, and markets initially crashed in response. However, just seven days later, on 9th April, the U.S. postponed the higher tariff increases for most countries by 90 days. Since then, markets have rebounded and even broken above their all-time highs set in December last year. Now that the dust is settling with the expiration of timeline and ongoing negotiations, the big question is: Where will the markets head next? Mirco Nasdaq Futures and Options Ticker: MNQ Minimum fluctuation: 0.25 index points = $0.50 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by konhow
Countdown to Powell’s rate decision: What to watch WednesdayFederal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is under mounting pressure from President Donald Trump to begin cutting interest rates. Markets and analysts overwhelmingly expect the Fed to hold rates steady this Wednesday. But what if the political heat is becoming too much to bear, and Powell and the Fed board advocate for a cut this week? Some Fed governors, Chris Waller and Michelle Bowman , have already signaled support for an early cut. FX pairs to watch USD/JPY: This pair remains highly sensitive to yield differentials and broader risk sentiment. However, any hawkish resistance or emphasis on data dependency may keep the pair supported, especially if risk appetite holds. EUR/USD: The euro has shown relative strength in recent sessions, but the pair has been hit by the announcement of the trade deal struck between the EU and US. If the Fed clearly signals it's not ready to ease, the USD could regain even ground.
by BlackBull Markets
Australian dollar down, eyes US GDP, Australian CPIThe Australian dollar is down for a third straight trading day. In the North American session, the US dollar has posted gains against most of the major currencies, including the Aussie. The greenback received a boost after the US and the EU reached a framework trade agreement after protracted negotiations. The data calendar is bare on Monday, with no events out of the US or Australia. Things get very busy on Wednesday, with Australian inflation, US GDP and the Federal Reserve rate decision. Even with no US releases, the US dollar has posted gains against most of the major currencies, including the Aussie. The greenback received a boost after the US and the EU reached a framework trade agreement after protracted negotiations. President Trump had threatened to impose 30% tariffs on European goods if a deal was not reached by Aug. 1. With the deal, a nasty trade war between the world's two largest economies has been avoided and the US will tariff most EU products at 15%. The deal with the EU comes on the heels of a similar agreement with Japan, bringing a sigh of relief from the financial markets that have been worried about the economic fallout from Trump's tariff policy. The agreements remove a great deal of uncertainty and investors are hopeful that the US and Chinese negotiators will wrap up their talks with an agreement in hand. The Federal Reserve meets on Wednesday and is virtually certain to maintain interest rates for a fifth straight meeting. It will be interesting to see if President Trump, who has been sharply critical of Fed policy, reacts to the decision. The money markets are expecting at least one cut before the end of the year, with the money markets pricing in a 61% likelihood a cut in September, according to FedWatch's CME.
by OANDA
Markets face a PACKED schedule this weekThe tariff truce between the U.S. and several major trading partners is set to expire on August 1 . A deal with Japan has already been reached, but talks with the EU, Canada, and Mexico remain active. In monetary policy, the Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold rates steady at 4.5% during its midweek meeting . Across the border, the Bank of Canada is also expected to leave its interest rate unchanged at 2.75% . After cutting rates twice earlier this year, the BoC is seen as entering a wait-and-see phase. In Asia, the Bank of Japan will announce its decision on Wednesday . While the BoJ isn’t expected to hike this month, recent U.S.–Japan trade progress has opened the door for policy tightening later this year. Finally, the week concludes with the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report on Friday. Economists expect job gains of around 110,000 in July, down from 147,000 in June.
by BlackBull Markets
ECB holds rates as expected, Euro steadyThe euro is showing limited movement on Thursday. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1763, down 0.03% on the day. Earlier, the euro climbed to a high of 1.1788, its highest level since July 7. The European Central Bank's decision to maintain the key deposit rate at 2.0% was significant but not a surprise. With the hold, the ECB ended a streak of lowering rates at seven consecutive meetings. The ECB has been aggressive, chopping 250 basis points in just over a year. The ECB statement said that inflation was falling in line with the Bank's forecasts and that future rate decisions would be data dependent. President Lagarde has said that the easing cycle is almost down, but the markets are expecting at least one more rate cut before the end of the year. The European Union and the United States are locked in negotiations over tariffs, with hopes that an agreement can be reached, on the heels of the US-Japan deal earlier this week. US President Trump has threatened to hit the EU with 30% tariffs if a deal is not made by August 1, but there are signals that the sides will agree to 15% tariffs on European imports, as was the case in the US-Japan agreement. If an agreement is reached, it will greatly reduce the uncertainty around tariffs and will make it easier for the ECB to lower rates and make more accurate forecasts for inflation and growth. In the US, Services PMI rose to 55.2 in July, up from 52.9 in June and above the market estimate of 53.0. This pointed to strong expansion and marked the fastest pace of growth in seven months. Manufacturing headed the opposite direction, falling from 52.6 in June, a 37-month high, to 49.5. This was the first contraction since December, with new orders and employment falling.
by OANDA
Australian dollar hits eight-month high on risk-on moodThe Australian dollar has rallied for a fourth sucessive day. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6588, up 0.50% on the day. The red-hot Aussie has jumped 1.6% since Thursday and hit a daily high of 0.6600 earlier, its highest level since Nov. 2024. The financial markets are in a risk-on mood today, buoyed by the announcement that the US and Japan have reached a trade agreement. Under the deal, the US will impose 15% tariffs on Japanese products, including automobiles. As well, Japan will invest some $550 billion into the US. Global stock markets are higher and the Australian dollar, a gauge of risk appetite, has climbed to an eight-month high. Investors also reacted positively today to reports that negotiations between the US and China were speeding up and the US could grant an extension of the August 12 deadline to reach an agreement. The latest positive developments on the tariff front have raised hopes that the US will also sign trade deals with the European Union and South Korea. The White House continues to put pressure on the Federal Reserve. Earlier this week, Treasury Scott Bessent called for a thorough review of the Federal Reserve. Bessent echoed President Trump's calls for the Fed to lower interest rates. Fed Chair Jerome Powell hasn't shown any signs of plans to cut rates and has fired back that the uncertainty over Trump's trade policy has forced the Fed to adopt a wait-and-see policy. The Fed is widely expected to hold rates at the July 30 meeting but there is a 58% likelihood of a rate cut in September, according to CME's FedWatch. AUD/USD has pushed above resistance at 0.6579 and tested resistance at 0.6593 earlier. Next, there is resistance at 0.6629 0.6539 and 0.6521 are the next support levels
by OANDA
Japan's coalition loses majority, yen higherThe Japanese yen has started the week with strong gains. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 147.71, down 0.07% on the day. Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba's ruling coalition failed to win a majority in the election for the upper house of parliament on Sunday. The result is a humiliating blow to Ishiba, as the government lost its majority in the lower house in October. The stinging defeat could be the end of the road for Ishiba. The Prime Minister has declared he will remain in office, but there is bound to be pressure from within the coalition for Ishiba to resign. The election result was not a surprise, as voters were expected to punish the government at the ballot box due to the high cost of food and falling incomes. The price of rice, a staple food, has soared 100% in a year, causing a full-blown crisis for the government, which has resorted to selling stockpiled rice from national reserves to the public. The election has greatly weakened Ishiba's standing, which is bad news as Japan is locked in intense trade talks with the US. President Trump has warned that he will impose 25% tariffs on Japanese goods if a deal isn't reached by August 1. Japan is particularly concerned about its automobile industry, the driver of its export-reliant economy. The Bank of Japan meets on July 31 and is widely expected to continue its wait-and-see stance on rate policy. The BoJ has been an outlier among major central banks as it looks to normalize policy and raise interest rates. However, with the economic turbulence and uncertainty due to President Trump's erratic tariff policy, the Bank has stayed on the sidelines and hasn't raised rates since January. Japan releases Tokyo Core CPI on Friday, the last tier-1 event before the rate meeting. There is resistance at 148.39 and 149.08 147.95 and 147.70 are the next support levels
by OANDA
Japan's coalition loses majority, yen higherThe Japanese yen has started the week with strong gains. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 147.71, down 0.73% on the day. Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba's ruling coalition failed to win a majority in the election for the upper house of parliament on Sunday. The result is a humiliating blow to Ishiba, as the government lost its majority in the lower house in October. The stinging defeat could be the end of the road for Ishiba. The Prime Minister has declared he will remain in office, but there is bound to be pressure from within the coalition for Ishiba to resign. The election result was not a surprise, as voters were expected to punish the government at the ballot box due to the high cost of food and falling incomes. The price of rice, a staple food, has soared 100% in a year, causing a full-blown crisis for the government, which has resorted to selling stockpiled rice from national reserves to the public. The election has greatly weakened Ishiba's standing, which is bad news as Japan is locked in intense trade talks with the US. President Trump has warned that he will impose 25% tariffs on Japanese goods if a deal isn't reached by August 1. Japan is particularly concerned about its automobile industry, the driver of its export-reliant economy. The Bank of Japan meets on July 31 and is widely expected to continue its wait-and-see stance on rate policy. The BoJ has been an outlier among major central banks as it looks to normalize policy and raise interest rates. However, with the economic turbulence and uncertainty due to President Trump's erratic tariff policy, the Bank has stayed on the sidelines and hasn't raised rates since January. Japan releases Tokyo Core CPI on Friday, the last tier-1 event before the rate meeting.
by OANDA
UK employment,wage growth falls, US retail sales shineThe British pound showing limited movement on Thursday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3406, down 0.09% on the day. Today's UK employment report pointed to a cooling in the UK labor market. The number of employees on company payrolls dropped by 41 thousand in June after a decline of 25 thousand in May. Still, the May decline was downwardly revised from 109 thousand, easing concerns of a significant deterioration in the labor market. Wage growth (excluding bonuses) dropped to 5.0% from a revised 5.3%, above the market estimate of 4.9%. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.7%, up from 4.6% and above the market estimate of 4.6%. This is the highest jobless level since the three months to July 2021. The latest job data will ease the pressure on the Bank of England to lower rates, as the sharp revision to the May payroll employees means the labor market has not deteriorated as much as had been feared. Still, the employment picture remains weak and the markets are expecting an August rate cut, even though UK inflation was hotter than expected in June. US retail sales bounced back in June after back-to-back declines. Consumers reacted with a thumbs-down to President Trump's tariffs, which took effect in April and made imported goods more expensive. The markets had anticipated a marginal gain of just 0.1% m/m in June but retail sales came in at an impressive 0.6%, with most sub-categories recording stronger activity in June. This follows a sharp 0.9% decline in May. The US tariffs seem to have had a significant impact on retail sales, as consumers continue to time their purchases to minimize the effect of tariffs. Consumers increased spending before the tariffs took effect and cut back once the tariffs were in place. With a truce in place between the US and China which has slashed tariff rates, consumers have opened their wallets and are spending more on big-ticket items such as motor vehicles, which jumped 1.2% in June.
by OANDA
2
Pound under pressure ahead of US, UK inflation reportsThe British pound has edged up higher on Tuesday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3453, up 0.21% on the day. Earlier, GBP/USD touched a low of 1.3416, its lowest level since June 23. All eyes will be on the UK inflation report for June, which will be released on Wednesday. Headline CPI is expected to remain unchanged at 3.4% y/y, as is core CPI at 3.5%. Monthly, both the headline rates are expected to stay steady at 0.2%. Has the BoE's battle to lower inflation stalled? The BoE was looking good in March, when inflation eased to 2.6%, but CPI has rebounded to 3.4%, well above the BoE's inflation target of 2%. Services data has been especially sticky, although it dropped to 4.7% in May, down from 5.4% a month earlier. At 3.4%, inflation is stuck at its highest level since February 2024 and that will complicate plans at the BoE to renew interest rate cuts in order to kick-start the weak UK economy. The central bank has lowered rates twice this year and would like to continue trimming the current cash rate of 4.25%. The Bank meets next on Aug. 7 and Wednesday's inflation data could be a significant factor in the rate decision. In the US, if June inflation data rises as is expected, fingers will quickly point to President Trump's tariffs as finally having an impact. Recent inflation reports have not shown a significant spike higher due to the tariffs, which were first imposed in April. However, the tariffs may have needed time to filter throughout the economy and could be felt for the first time in the June inflation reading. The Fed meets next on July 30, with the markets pricing in a 95% chance of a hold, according to CME's FedWatch. For September, the odds of a rate cut stand at 59%. Today's inflation report could cause a shift in these numbers. GBP/USD tested resistance at 1.3454 earlier. Above, there is resistance at 1.3484 1.3396 and 1.3366 are the next support levels
by OANDA
What Happens the Day Jerome Powell Is Fired or Quits?A sudden exit by Fed Chair Jerome Powell would create both a political and monetary shock. While the Chair is technically protected from arbitrary removal. Recent reports confirm that President Trump and his allies are scrutinising the Fed’s $2.5 billion renovation project—potentially laying the groundwork for a “for cause” dismissal. A surprise departure would undermine confidence in the Fed’s independence. The U.S. dollar could fall sharply across major pairs. USD/JPY could fall toward ¥145, with safe-haven demand favouring the yen. However, the reaction may be less severe than in pairs like Swiss franc which we have noted in the past is the potentially preferred safe haven. A panic selloff could extend to 142.20—a prior consolidation floor. GBP/USD could surge as traders anticipate a more dovish Fed stance under the new Trump-stooge Fed Chair. From a technical perspective, GBP/USD is maybe already oversold and potentially poised for a potential rebound anyway—Powell’s resignation or firing could potentially exacerbate this. The first level to watch being a return to 1.3700, assuming the likely expectation of Fed rate cuts rise.
by BlackBull Markets
Australian dollar eyes China GDPThe Australian dollar has edged lower on Monday. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6555, down 0.32% on the day. The Aussie took advantage of US dollar weakness last week as it touched a high of 0.6593, its highest level since November 2024. China's economy is expected to have grown by 5.1% in the second quarter, after back-to-back quarters of gains of 5.4%. The government's annual growth target is around 5.0%, and policymakers won't complain if this target is exceeded for a third consecutive quarter. China's exports were up 5.8% y/y in June, above the consensus of 5.0% and well above the May gain of 4.8%. The jump in exports was driven by a trade truce with the US that lowered tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 55%. Still, the economic picture is uncertain as the tariff truce ends in August. China will also release industrial production and retail sales for June, with the markets forecasting weaker numbers. Industrial production, which has been decelerating in recent months, is expected to ease to 5.6% from 5.8%, while retail sales are expected to fall to 5.6%, down from 6 .4% in May, which was the strongest level since December 2023. Australia releases Westpac Consumer Sentiment on Tuesday, with a forecast of a 0.4% gain for July . This follows a 0.4% gain in June. Consumers remain cautious, despite the Reserve Bank of Australia's rate cut in May and lower inflation. The RBA shocked the markets last week when it maintained the cash rate at 3.85%, as all signs appeared to point to a quarter-point cut. The RBA meets next on August 12. AUD/USD is testing support at 0.6562. Below, there is support at 0.6550 There is resistance at 0.6570 and 0.6582
by OANDA